Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster

[nobleisthyname]

If Williams ends up half the cost, why do you think that is?  Teams are that stupid in an analytics era and caught up on a “name?”  You’re just smarter than the whole league?

To be fair, Dallas Keuchel keeps getting jobs. A washed-up 5+ ERA Jon Lester was considered more valuable than Lane Thomas with 3.5 years of control.

Name power is at least partially a thing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

just a little perspective on the Max and Williams discussion: Max currently makes 6 times what Williams makes. Coming off their injuries, I would still expect Max's next contract to be short term but multiples of what Williams will make. I'm not sure Williams makes $7 million unless he comes back and pitches well down the stretch. As for Max, if he shows anything the rest of the year, I'm sure he'll get > $15 million for a single season, probably closer to $25 million. Still a big step down from his $40+ million per year for 3 years with an opt out  that he got from the Mets for 2021-2024.

Let's see if Max performs like a lead dog down the stretch before we give him lead dog money, even for a year. The sentimental journey of having him back for a WC run is great, but there's substantial doubt he'll hold up at this point.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Williams has 30 starts more recently than Max.

And yes, teams are caught up on a name. Max will cost 130 million and delivered less than 10 WAR. Why on Earth would we shell out 50-70 million for a guy on the tail end of his career? No thanks. No reason to add another bad contract after finally getting through Corbin.

130 million?  Yea if he can get that, no thanks.  I’m talking 1-2 years at 15-20 mill a year. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Whether Max is the one who makes the most sense or not, my point was right now I prefer short 1 or 2 year deals for vets as opposed to the top-end long-term deals for starters.  You may pay a premium in annual value, but at least you aren’t saddled with a bad contract for years in a worst case scenario.

A vet can bridge until you move from WC hopeful to full-fledge WS contender in a few years. In the next few years, perhaps you have an abundance of minor league prospects you can package and trade for a top SP that has only a year or 2 of control left that a team is looking to dump, ala Crochet this year with the White Sox.  There’s your ace.

[Slateman]

130 million?  Yea if he can get that, no thanks.  I’m talking 1-2 years at 15-20 mill a year. 

Lol, Max aint taking that chump change. He aint signing for less than 50 million. You're pricing him at Charlie Morton levels.

He is 40. There are less than 20 guys since 2000 who have posted sub 4 ERAs at age 40 or earlier. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, or Frankie Montas would be much better investments.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Lol, Max aint taking that chump change. He aint signing for less than 50 million. You're pricing him at Charlie Morton levels.

He is 40. There are less than 20 guys since 2000 who have posted sub 4 ERAs at age 40 or earlier. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, or Frankie Montas would be much better investments.

What’s the worst case for Max at even 50 million over 2 years?  What’s the worse case at Burnes for 7 years and whatever that mega contract looks like?  Burnes already has seriously diminished strikeouts.  Chances are low he’s dominant more than another few years.

[IanRubbish]

What’s the worst case for Max at even 50 million over 2 years?

The Nats are already giving Max $45 million over the next three seasons.  He's a lot older and injury prone, and the team owes him, Strasburg, and Corbin $50 million next year.   The more important thing is retaining Doo, or making him pitching coach.   As long as that happens, dollars need to go to a bat.  If Doo goes somewhere else, or Mini Me refuses to pay him what he's worth, then another 90 loss season is coming regardless.

[sixthree175]

Williams has 30 starts more recently than Max.

And yes, teams are caught up on a name. Max will cost 130 million and delivered less than 10 WAR. Why on Earth would we shell out 50-70 million for a guy on the tail end of his career? No thanks. No reason to add another bad contract after finally getting through Corbin.

It might be a mute point.  I give Max a >50% chance that he retires.  I would think he doesn't want to go out as an old has been.

[varoadking]

It might be a mute point.  I give Max a >50% chance that he retires.  I would think he doesn't want to go out as an old has been.

Someone else...maybe...but I don't think Max has both oars in the water...

He may be one of those guys, like Joey Votto, that will stick around until nobody wants him and then sign a MiLB deal just to (try to) prove everyone wrong...

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

It might be a mute point.  I give Max a >50% chance that he retires.  I would think he doesn't want to go out as an old has been.

Depends on his health/performance to finish this season.  I agree he’s not going to keep pitching if he’s mediocre or bad.  He’s still been very good when on the mound.  Half of Famers and best of their generation guys like Max and Verlander just age different.  They are so good they can still compete and be very good even when they don’t have the same stuff they used to.

All pitchers are “injury prone.”  The younger guys that are top-end are going to look for 6 and 7 year deals.  Those too often turn into Stras and Corbin deals, because pitchers “lose it” either due to injury or whatever the case.  On occasion those deals work like Max did, but it’s very risky.

The guys capable of giving something close to top-end performance when on the mound for short-term deals are the older guys, or a “bounce back” prove it like Flaherty this year.  That’s the market I want to see us in for now.  As the team pushes closer to actually being ready to make a deep run, then figure out where you are getting your “Ace.”  Like I mentioned above, at that point you could have some abundance in prospects and guys years away and you trade them for someone like Crochet currently is with the White Sox.  A guy with a few years left of control that a team is looking to dump.

[Slateman]

Someone else...maybe...but I don't think Max has both oars in the water...

He may be one of those guys, like Joey Votto, that will stick around until nobody wants him and then sign a MiLB deal just to (try to) prove everyone wrong...

I mean, when people keep shelling out millions of dollars for you to go on the IL, why wouldn't you?

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Max made 27 regular season starts in 2023 and 3 postseason starts.  It’s not like he’s spent years on the shelf.

[imref]

Uh, there's no way this team is signing Scherzer next year.  Someone will give him $40 million for another 2 years.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Williams has 30 starts more recently than Max.

And yes, teams are caught up on a name. Max will cost 130 million and delivered less than 10 WAR. Why on Earth would we shell out 50-70 million for a guy on the tail end of his career? No thanks. No reason to add another bad contract after finally getting through Corbin.

Max made 30 starts last year between regular season and postseason.  Williams did but had a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.  Defeats the purpose if you’re that bad.  Corbin can give us 30 starts a year like that.  Max had a 3.77 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his 27 regular season starts.

[imref]

Max made 30 starts last year between regular season and postseason.  Williams did but had a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.  Defeats the purpose if you’re that bad.  Corbin can give us 30 starts a year like that.  Max had a 3.77 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his 27 regular season starts.

Yep, there's more of a likelihood of the team bringing back Corbin on a one-year deal, or bringing back 38 year-old Gio Gonzales after he got that K the other day for the Bananas than there is of signing Scherzer.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Uh, there's no way this team is signing Scherzer next year.  Someone will give him $40 million for another 2 years.

If you mean 40 million a year for 2 years, not a chance.  If you mean 20 mill a year, then yea that’s possible and why wouldn’t that Nats be able to do that?  That’s not close to what is coming off the books with Corbin.  We’re going to need to add a SP with Gray being out.

[nobleisthyname]

Yep, there's more of a likelihood of the team bringing back Corbin on a one-year deal, or bringing back 38 year-old Gio Gonzales after he got that K the other day for the Bananas than there is of signing Scherzer.

Damn Gio's only 38 still?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This team will be young next year and have most spots filled with under 26 year olds. Outfield will be Wood/Young/Crews, 2d and SS look locked up, 3B might be Tena or Lip until House is ready, and C is probably internal among Ruiz, Adams, and Millas.  Yepez is doing his best 2022 Meneses so may be given a shot, so that leaves one bat to sign.

rotation looks like 3-4 slots are internal or on board (Irvin, Gore, Parker, Herz?) while the bullpen like has a few hold overs (Garcia, Ferrer, maybe Law, and some call ups), some FAs of the Law/JBarnes/Floro variety, and then it's a ???? who closes if Finny is dealt. I would not favor big bucks on a closer.

[IanRubbish]

This team will be young next year and have most spots filled with under 26 year olds. Outfield will be Wood/Young/Crews, 2d and SS look locked up, 3B might be Tena or Lip until House is ready, and C is probably internal among Ruiz, Adams, and Millas.  Yepez is doing his best 2022 Meneses so may be given a shot, so that leaves one bat to sign.

rotation looks like 3-4 slots are internal or on board (Irvin, Gore, Parker, Herz?) while the bullpen like has a few hold overs (Garcia, Ferrer, maybe Law, and some call ups), some FAs of the Law/JBarnes/Floro variety, and then it's a ???? who closes if Finny is dealt. I would not favor big bucks on a closer.

One thing to consider will be any one year rentals for deadline trades like we had this year with Winker/Gallo/Senzel/Rosario, or Nelson Cruz and Jaimer C in past years.  I think those would be ill advised next season because of the playing time they would take from ready-for-MLB prospects, but Rizzo always likes to have one of these guys around for deal making. 

[imref]

Definitely need a werth-like veteran clubhouse presence.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

One thing to consider will be any one year rentals for deadline trades like we had this year with Winker/Gallo/Senzel/Rosario, or Nelson Cruz and Jaimer C in past years.  I think those would be ill advised next season because of the playing time they would take from ready-for-MLB prospects, but Rizzo always likes to have one of these guys around for deal making. 

basically, there's only 1B/3B/DH maybe for those signings, and I think one of those slots would go to Yepez is they go the cheap route. Maybe only one slot if you go with Lip and Tena until House is ready.

[nobleisthyname]

Sign Corbin Burnes and this team will compete for the division next season.

[Elvir Ovcina]

If you mean 40 million a year for 2 years, not a chance.  If you mean 20 mill a year, then yea that’s possible and why wouldn’t that Nats be able to do that?  That’s not close to what is coming off the books with Corbin.  We’re going to need to add a SP with Gray being out.

True, but remember they still owe Corbin $10 million next year and Scherzer $15 million.

[Elvir Ovcina]

basically, there's only 1B/3B/DH maybe for those signings, and I think one of those slots would go to Yepez is they go the cheap route. Maybe only one slot if you go with Lip and Tena until House is ready.

They'll sign the best SP they can who is open to a 1-year. 

That guy won't be very good.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

They'll sign the best SP they can who is open to a 1-year. 

That guy won't be very good.

Trevor Williams.


They probably do need an FA starter, but I hate to make a long term commitment. Do you get into a Corbin Burnes bidding war? I dunno.