Author Topic: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster  (Read 4996 times)

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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #75: June 24, 2024, 12:22:52 AM »
The last time I heard that Randolph and Mortimer Duke were going broke.


Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #76: June 24, 2024, 10:55:55 AM »
Turner is 39. 

All of those guys should get one year, but will be asking multiple.

O'Hearn is a nice platoon option, but he has a club option at 7.5 million. I cant see them declining that. So unless you want to trade something for it, I dont see how we get him.
As for O'Hearn, they do have Kjerstad in AAA, who is a lefty bat they can't find room for on the MLB roster. Old regime would not pay $7.5  million for a slot they could be paying $750K.

 As for Turner, he's only getting 1 year contracts in his career at this point, so I don't see how he could demand multiple years (and if he did, move on). That's precisely the appeal of the 37 year olds or older - you can go year to year and not commit a ton of outyear money.



Online Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #77: June 24, 2024, 12:24:08 PM »
Old regime is gone. New regime isnt cheap and stupid. They will pick up that option, if for nothing else, they could get something in trade.

Kyle Finnegan for O'Hearn?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #78: June 24, 2024, 01:24:19 PM »
interesting.

Ghost Mears at Talk Nats throws out a trade / salary dump option - Yandy Diaz. Owed $4 million rest of the year and $10 million next year, with a $12 million option (no buyout) per Cot's. He had a lousy April, but since has heated up a lot. Was terrific the past 2 years. Pinckney plus Brendan Collins?
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brendan-collins/sa3017549/stats?position=P

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #79: June 24, 2024, 01:56:52 PM »
interesting.

Ghost Mears at Talk Nats throws out a trade / salary dump option - Yandy Diaz. Owed $4 million rest of the year and $10 million next year, with a $12 million option (no buyout) per Cot's. He had a lousy April, but since has heated up a lot. Was terrific the past 2 years. Pinckney plus Brendan Collins?
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brendan-collins/sa3017549/stats?position=P
I like Diaz and a one and a half year guy positions for next year.

Offline imref

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #80: June 24, 2024, 02:28:20 PM »
.854 OPS in June but a BABiP of about .380 so....But even with some regression he's a big upgrade over Joey.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #81: June 24, 2024, 03:59:22 PM »
.854 OPS in June but a BABiP of about .380 so....But even with some regression he's a big upgrade over Joey.
fwiw, he played Harold Ramirez into a DFA, so he's probably better than him as well.

Online Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #82: June 24, 2024, 04:01:57 PM »
Well, the 2025 roster starts at this year's deadline

2024 Trade Deadline Moves

Trade Luis Garcia and Hunter Harvey to the Yankees for Roderick Arias, Henry Lalane, Clayton Beeter, and Jesus Rodriguez*
 - Yea, fine, I'm a hater. I think Luis Garcia is pretty ... okay. He's clearly a platoon bat with decent defense at 2B. I just don't think this is a guy that you build around and I think we need to move CJ to second base. Gleyber Torres is in a contract year and is hitting an abysmal .218/.296/.338. If he hasn't turned it on by the deadline, the Yankees will have to get some length out of their lineup. Its very top heavy and they will need solid contributors at the back of the lineup.
- The Yankees bullpen has good ERA, but doesn't miss a lot of bats. Harvey alleviates that in a big way. Holmes and Harvey make a capable back of the bullpen. I am also expecting the Yankees to pursue Tanner Scott from the Marlins, as they are in dire need of a good lefty. They should be all in this year.
- Yankees get affordable second base and back of the bullpen arm for next year, which means they can consolidate money and go after Soto (essentially, Finegan and Garcia will cost less next year than what Torres is making this year). Huge bonuses for them, as they have made it clear they want to keep Soto. With Ben Rice slotting in to first, they can go get affordable platoon options during next offseason to compliment Soto.
- Beeter would immediately be called up and go to our pen. Going to be honest, I don't think this is much of a downgrade and Beeter has a higher upside as a reliever.
- Arias is in Low A. He is probably not here until 2027. Projects as a very good defender at short, who will hit for some power. There is some swing and miss here, but an awful lot to dream on here.
- Henry Lalane is a 6'7", 20 year old lefty that can hit 97 and has a nice breaking ball. Come to daddy
- Jesus Rodriguez ... there's something I like about him as a late bloomer, in the DH/backup catcher mold. He's not a top prospect, but he has raked up until his Double A promotion this year. May even be a decent catcher.

Kyle Finnegan to the Orioles for Ryan O'Hearn and Jackson Baumeister*
- The witch is dead!!! The Nationals finally make a trade with the Orioles. Orioles have bullpen question marks and rotation marks. Additionally, they are chaulk full of corner infielders and outfielders. This might be a bit early for the Orioles, but they will need cheap bullpen help. And this leaves the bulk of their big prospects to go get a top of the rotation starter, which they will need to compete with the Yankees in the postseason.
- Ryan O'Hearn has a team option at 7.5 million. He slots in to the 2025 roster as the first baseman. He hits .326/.358/.544 against RHP away from Baltimore. Its only 279 plate appearances, so kind of a small sample size, but this seems worth the gamble to me. I'd even look to sign him to a short term extension during the offseason.
- Baumeister is 6'4" with a good fastball and good breaking ball. So basically, the kind of dude Rizzo loves. Bonus points for a fantastic baseball name.


*Addendum: I debated whether or not Harvey should go to the Orioles. If they are wanting Harvey for O'Hearn, then Finnegan replaces him in the Yankees trade, with George Lombard Jr. replacing Arias for the Yankees. The Orioles will have to cough up a better prospect. Iether replace Baumeister with Norby, or add one of the Seth Johnson or Chayce McDermott. I would love to get Mayo or Basallo, but I don't see them giving those up unless a top of the rotation starter is involved.

Jesse Winker to the Brewers for Coleman Crow and Round A Competitive Balance Pick
- If Tyler Black can't start hitting, the Brewers will look to improve their lineup. Now that we have competent people in the front office, draft picks have some value here in DC again.
- Coleman Crow is probably a reliever. His fastball ticks up and plays better off his slider.

Dylan Floro to the Padres for Henry Baez
- Baez is probably a reliever, but he has a hard fastball and he's doing well at 19 in Low A. Take a shot, who knows. This also leaves all of Preller's top prospects untouched so he can go do something crazy, like trade for Luis Robert.

Ildamaro Vargas to the Dodgers for Ronan Kopp
- I could be pretty easily convinced to not trade Vargas, but the team seems committed to keeping Lipscomb and Nunez, which makes Vargas somewhat redundant. The Dodgers could really use someone with his energy. Also, he hits LHP pretty well, which means he could platoon with Muncy at third or Lux at second base. I'm assuming the Dodgers will go get a shortstop, which means moving Mookie back to RF. But even if they don't, Vargas abilities against LHP would be well suited. And neither Hernandez nor Taylor are hitting crap right now.
- Kopp is like a 6'7", version of Alvarado. Huge fastball and breaking pitch. Like no control. The Nats seemed to have fixed/mitigation other pitchers with control issues. Maybe they can turn him into a workable reliever. Still, I'm not totally married to this trade and would be happy to keep Vargas for 2025.


2024-2025 MLB Offseason

Corbin Burnes - 8 years, 288 million
- We are so freaking back. Rizzo loves him some starting pitching. Burnes is an ace and probably the best starting pitcher in free agency. Immediately, he takes pressure off of the other young pitchers. And, if we want/have to, we can trade from that stable of younger pitchers.
- Alternatives here are Shane Bieber on a one year, prove it deal (with player options after) and Max Fried. I'm hesitant to go Bieber as I think he will want to recover from TJS in a familiar place, and Fried has had injury concerns as of late.

Ha-Seong Kim - 6 years, 85 million (player opt out after the 2026 season)
- A great short stop defender who has a middling stick, however, I think there are some good trends that indicate we'd get better performance out of him. For one, he's advanced metrics are trending up. He's increased his EV, xBA, and xSLG from last year. He's hitting the ball a little harder, while still maintaining really low whiff rates and a solid walk rate. He continues to a be a very good defender.
- The opt out is his protection if he turns around his bat. This is an underpay if you get 2023 hitting with his current fielding.
- This would give the Nationals a pretty fantastic left side of the infield when House comes up, and increases CJ Abrams value, as he is probably a decent defender at second base (rather than a poor one at shortstop)

Jesse Winker - 3 years, 15 million
- Yep. Trade him, bring him back. He's your DH. Also learns some first base. Ultimately, this is a platoon bat, but between Riley Adams, Carter Keiboom, and Stone Garrett, I feel like we can find a LHP option to that platoon internally. And this contract isn't so debilitating that we can't just eat the money if he gets hurt.

Ryan O'Hearn - 4 years, 25 million (extension)
 - Unless we see something terrible, this extension is a no-brainer. Lock the dude up for four years and give your self a chance to develop some big bats with no defensive ability. And, like Winker, this isn't so much that if he sucks, you can't just cut bait and replace with Morales.

Kenley Jansen or Ryan Pressley or Clay Holmes
- I think the Nats have to go in the 2025 season with a set closer. That doesn't mean that guy is the closer by the end of the season, but they need to enter the season with stability at that position.
- I want to get Jansen, but I don't want to have to give him 3 years. and I don't think he will take a one year deal without an enormous overpay.
- Pressley on a bounce back year is intriguing, but it would probably cost a two year deal. Maybe, maybe not
- Clay Holmes will definitely cost three years. I think I could live with that, simply because he doesn't walk anyone.


Position Player Discussion
Catcher - Honestly don't know what to do with Ruiz. You're not going to cut bait here. If he figures out his swing from the left side, then maybe you don't sign Winker and make him the primary DH/backup catcher. Millas can be your primary catcher and maybe he develops into a decent hitter.

Infield - Ryan O'Hearn and pick someone to be a LHP hitting first baseman. Maybe that's Riley Adams. Maybe Kieboom. Maybe Lipscomb becomes a decent hitter against LHP. CJ Abrams will slot in nicely at second base. Hopefully he continues to develop. Kim is your shortstop. Senzel starts the season at third base, but I'm really hoping House takes over before the 2025 ASB. Bench can be Lipscomb and whomever you decide to keep as the LHP platoon at first base. If that's Lipscomb, then maybe we keep Nunez on the MLB roster. But I think he gets sent down to the minors next year.

Outfield - They're here. The boys are finally here. Wood, Crews, and Lane Thomas. Jacob Young can be the fourth outfielder, and probably plays a lot of CF against LHP. I'd even be okay with trading Lane and just running him out there full time.

Bench - Millas, Winker, and Lipscomb are probably the only pieces set in stone. After that, its whatever you want/need. Maybe you keep Adams as the platoon 1B/DH. Maybe that's Stone Garrett. Maybe Darren Baker finally makes it to the big leagues. Honestly, I don't know how much of this really, truly matters, because, frankly, you can grab a bench player pretty easily at the deadline.



Pitching Discussion
So the first three of the rotation is pretty much set: Burnes, Gore, Irvin. From here, it gets interesting. I would like to think Gray and Cavalli round it out. Cavalli can skip the occasional start to keep his innings down. However, I think both of these guys have to earn it. Cavalli will likely have a minor league option. But Gray doesn't, and to be honest, Gray has put together, maybe, 2 good months in his career so far. Mitchel Parker has outperformed him. Maybe he shows something the second half of 2024, but if not, well, this is a pretty good problem to have.

Which leads to a larger discussion about the bullpen. The Nats have some talented arms, but no one with a track record in the pen now. DJ Herz probably ends up here. Bryzkcy, Ribalta, Cole Henry, La Sorsa, and Cronin could end up here. Heck, you could consider putting Rutledge in the pen and fast tracking Susana if you are competitive. Lot of options here, but none are experienced. Hence why I wanted to sign a closer. I guess we could hold on to Derek Law too.

This is where Josiah Gray comes in. Maybe he figures something out and pitches well in the second of half of 2024. But if he doesn't, then he's a great candidate to become a reliever. His biggest problem is that his fastball is simply uncompetitive. He's tried to hide it with additional pitches, but the truth is, those pitches are only okay. He clearly lacks experience in developing pitching and knowing how to pitch, which someone with a 91-93 mph fastball has to have. However, as a reliever, he could sit 94-95 and touch even higher. The velo mitigates the below average shape, and plays much better with his two primary breaking pitches (slider and curveball). He wouldn't have to rely on poor cutter, sinker, and changeup to trick hitters. He could simply go after them. I believe this is the best course of action for the Nationals.

Lineup vs RHP
2B - CJ Abrams
CF - Dylan Crews
1B - O'Hearn
RF - Thomas
LF - Wood
DH - Winker
SS - Kim
 C - Ruiz
3B - Senzel

Lineup vs LHP
2B - CJ Abrams
CF - Jacob Young
LF - Dylan Crews
RF - Lane Thomas
DH - TBD (Kieboom/Garrett)
1B - Adams/Lipscomb
SS - Kim
 C - Ruiz/Millas
3B - Senzel

Rotation and Pen
Burnes, Gore, Irvin, Parker, Cavalli
Holmes (CL), Gray (SU), Garcia, Herz, Law, Open, Open, Open (I would like to see Henry, Bryzkcy, and Ribalta make the club, but I don't care who ends up in the "B bullpen."



Conclusions
Fans will rightfully want Juan Soto. I've probably spent about the same amount of money as it would take to get Juan Soto. And, frankly, there is no lineup in baseball that doesn't need a Juan Soto. I just think that we need the players I signed/traded for more. Ultimately, I think that if you signed Juan Soto to this team, you'd be asking him to play first base and/or DH within a couple years. And maybe that's still worth it to a lot of teams. But I think we'd end up wishing we had more money to improve defense or go get a top of the rotation starter, rather than have to trade from newly minted farm system.

The 2025 NL East is ripe for the taking. The Braves will lose Fried. Sale and Morton will get old. Strider will be on an innings limit. Acuna will be a shell of his 2023 self. Karma will finally catch up to Ozuna. And the Braves farm system is pretty bare, after years of AA taking from it. Phillies are getting old, particularly in the rotation. They don't have the pitching prospects to re-stock it quite yet and they're payroll is too high to go buy what they need. The Marlins will Marline. The Mets will sign Soto for 600 million dollars and finish fourth.

Our rotation alone is borderline 100 win territory. The lineup, assuming Wood and Crews are actually franchise players, gives you enough offense to compete for the division. Added depth bats in O'Hearn and Winker will punish opposing pitchers who don't throw strikes. The pen will be good enough to last until the deadline, where Rizzo will make some moves and build it better. The Nats will soar to another division title, and we'll all laugh at Juan Soto complaining about the Mets organization as he watches his old team get another World Series title.


Offline imref

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #83: June 24, 2024, 04:23:38 PM »
I was following along until the end where you've got Young and Wood platooning. That's not going to happen.

Definitely agree with the O'Hearn trade / extension though.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #84: June 24, 2024, 05:00:57 PM »
This is thought out enough and has enough meat for discussion that I'd like to pull it into it's own thread. I might also want to quote the top portion and put it into the break up the juggernaut thread.

I think Wood is a full-time player, so  I suspect that against LHP we would see Thomas DH and a Wood / Young / Crews OF.  More or less, winker / Young platoon in the 4 slots. If we aren't going to go for the WC, then I could see both Thomas and Winker dealt.

If O'Hearn is here and Thomas not traded, then I think Winker isn't brought back. I'm also curious about Yandy Diaz rather than O'Hearn. 

I agree that Burnes is a higher priority than Soto. I mean, Soto is Soto and could go down as an inner-circle HoF hitter, but it likely will involve a huge commitment.  I saw a suggestion that you could structure a front loaded Soto deal so he'd have an opt out at age 30. Say, first 5 years at $50 million, then 10 years at $25 million, for a 15 year, $500 million contract that he'll likely opt out of at age 30. This would also take advantage of the cheap years for Wood / Crews / House / Abrams.

To my eye, the ballsiest call is to cut bait on Garcia and to clear a spot outside shortstop for CJ to land. I could see it, but I could also see moving Garcia, maybe for less, as an off-season move. Holding back on the Garcia move, moving just Winker and one of the backend relievers (for O'Hearn, most likely), moving Floro, is probably less radical surgery but still leaves room this team to possibly surprise on the upside.

With a Luis Garcia to NYY deal, you give Baker his shot. Move Winker. Move one backend reliever but not both, and deal minor leaguers for Diaz, maybe you go into the August / September period with:

C same mess
1B Diaz
2B Baker
SS Abrams
3B Senzel
OF Crew / Young / Wood
DH Thomas

and still have one of Harvey or Finny, Law, Garcia, maybe Floro, JBarnes, and hopefully an improved Rainey to compete.

Offline imref

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #85: June 24, 2024, 05:13:37 PM »
There's also nothing that Kieboom or Garrett have done this year that would warrant them being in the discussion for next year.

Online Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #86: June 24, 2024, 06:07:59 PM »
If Wood can actually hit decently against LHP, then you just rotate him, Crews, and Thomas through the DH against lefties.

Online Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #87: June 24, 2024, 06:13:43 PM »
There's also nothing that Kieboom or Garrett have done this year that would warrant them being. in the discussion for next year.
Kieboom has a .900 OPS against LHP this year. 1.096 OPS against them in the minors last year. Garrett was an .839 OPS against LHP.

Both are certainly worth kicking the tires on. Particularly in such low salaries. You find out if one of them will work, and Senzel can be the other one when we call up House.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #88: June 24, 2024, 06:28:08 PM »
I'm actually totally on board with trading García. As you say he's... fine. But he's blocking Abrams from taking another step forward developmentally by playing a position he can actually play.

Not sure if the front office will want to move Abrams off of short though even if they should.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #89: June 24, 2024, 06:29:16 PM »
I also doubt they'll platoon Wood.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #90: June 24, 2024, 06:43:34 PM »
There's also nothing that Kieboom or Garrett have done this year that would warrant them being in the discussion for next year.

You beat me to it. Kieboom should never wear a Nats uni in a regular season game. I’m sorry but I was hoping Garrett would recover from his injury but he never regained his hitting prowess.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #91: June 25, 2024, 07:10:18 PM »
Thank you Slate for your extensive and thoughtful post. I appreciate the effort and depth.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #92: June 25, 2024, 07:14:54 PM »
I also doubt they'll platoon Wood.

No way he comes up and is strictly a platoon guy.  When he does get a day off, it’ll likely be against lefties, but he’s not sitting against all of them unless we’re into next season trying to contend and he’s just unplayable against them, which I don’t anticipate.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #93: July 02, 2024, 09:38:59 AM »
I firmly believe, as most here do, that 2025 is the first year of the new competitive window for the Nationals. This means the development and experimentation phase of the rebuild is coming to a close. Players like García and Ruiz cannot be everyday starters next season. Senzel can simply because he's a placeholder for House, but otherwise the "meh" players and dead weight all need to be gone by opening day (or at least relegated to the bench).

I suspect I'll be disappointed though and both Ruiz and García will be starting next season.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #94: July 02, 2024, 09:41:40 AM »
Well who would you replace those two with? We really need a big bat at 1B/DH and that would be my priority for any free agent signing.  If you do that and Wood and Crews are decent it’s easier to carry the two other guys.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #95: July 02, 2024, 09:44:09 AM »
García would be easy to replace with a FA signing if the front office cares to spend. Adames and HSK off the top of my head would be available.

No idea about catcher, but I think I would prefer Millas over Ruiz at this point.

Definitely agree about first base. I consider it a given that Meneses will not be back next season. That would be too far even for this front office.

Online Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #96: July 02, 2024, 09:57:05 AM »
Adames is probably a 200 million dollar contract. Kim will want to be paid as a shortstop.

As much as I am down for moving CJ to second, will Rizzo do that? Garcia is going to cost 3-4 million next year and gives you a ~100 wRC+ against RHP with decent defense. Thats not a terrible value.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #97: July 02, 2024, 10:17:54 AM »
I don't have high hopes of moving away from either player, but I do think it will be a mistake to roll with them again next year.

Between Senzel, Ruiz, and García you're looking at 3 of the 9 hitters in the lineup being at best league average, and probably at least 2 of them worse than that. Add in Young and that's half the lineup that will basically be a black hole. That's not going to work if you're serious about being competitive.

And that's assuming Crews and Wood both mash and the Nats sign another bat for 1B/DH.

Online Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #98: July 02, 2024, 10:54:12 AM »
I don't see a 1B/DH that I would trust to "mash"

Alonso will cost a lot and he is hit or miss. Hoskins is posting a pretty average offensive season for a 1B/DH (though he is coming off of ACL repair, so there is that). Walker will be 34. Rizzo looks completely washed at 34. Goldy will be 37 and isn't hitting for crap.

Who are we signing that we can count on to be even a 5/6 hitter in a competitive lineup? If we platoon Senzel and Garcia at 2B, that's a combined 100+ wRC+. Which would be fine in like the 7 hole. But I would also be completely okay with trading Garcia or even non-tendering him and getting Adames or Kim (though I think we need to acknowledge that HSK might not be much of an offensive improvement, and that most of his value would be in defense.)

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #99: July 02, 2024, 11:56:40 AM »
I don't see a 1B/DH that I would trust to "mash"

Alonso will cost a lot and he is hit or miss. Hoskins is posting a pretty average offensive season for a 1B/DH (though he is coming off of ACL repair, so there is that). Walker will be 34. Rizzo looks completely washed at 34. Goldy will be 37 and isn't hitting for crap.

Who are we signing that we can count on to be even a 5/6 hitter in a competitive lineup? If we platoon Senzel and Garcia at 2B, that's a combined 100+ wRC+. Which would be fine in like the 7 hole. But I would also be completely okay with trading Garcia or even non-tendering him and getting Adames or Kim (though I think we need to acknowledge that HSK might not be much of an offensive improvement, and that most of his value would be in defense.)
So wait one more year. Next year is more about getting the young guys experience and trying for .500. Maybe House is up then also. 2026 is probably the real first year of competing if things break right.