Poll

Wood and Cavalli are with the Nats & we hold 3rd WC by a game on 7/23. What should the Nats do?

Tank! Sell any vet not under control after 2025. Restock. Target is a long term rebuild.
5 (18.5%)
Selective selling of FAs you can replace internally. E.g., Floro for Ribalta, Law for Ferrer, etc...
10 (37%)
Promote appropriately but otherwise hold tight and give the squad a chance.
8 (29.6%)
Try a Candelario trade in reverse to plug a weakness (1B) - say Made and Rutledge
3 (11.1%)
Go for it. Lots of CFs coming. Trade a Lile / Hassell / Vaquero and go for WC.
1 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 27

Voting closed: June 30, 2024, 12:27:53 PM

Author Topic: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?  (Read 13650 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online welch

  • Posts: 17184
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Gallo and Senzel are the examples used in the definition of "has been and never were". No reason to let them take up space on the bench or in the lineup. Nunez is even worse, since he failed AA for Miami. With Robles, they are four players who can be replaced from the minors.

Rosario and Winker are both "maybes", maybe halfway between Dickerson -- done -- and Candelario -- rebounding.

This team could compete for the third WC spot without the dead wood and with a live Wood plus others.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 44494
  • Re-contending in 202...5?

Online welch

  • Posts: 17184
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Hold steady. Get Thomas back and next weekend get James Wood to the majors. Dump poor Corbin when (?) Gray is ready. And worry about the rotation ja, when Cavalli gets to Washington. Alternate Winker and Rosario. Of course, dump Robles and Nunez, because they leave the Nats with a one-man bench.

That will be plenty to compete for the WC.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42272
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Lots of internal shuffling that could make the team more competitive short-term & maybe long term. Other than Thomas and a cut, I don't expect much tomorrow. Wood I think may be 3 weeks in the minors if they are managing his arbitration status. If they aren't, then it could be once they are satisfied with the hammy. I hope the moves to free space involve Robles, Meneses, and or Nunez. Robles for Thomas is righty for righty, OF for OF, but Young to AAA would restore the opening day OF: Winker lf, cf platoon of Rosario and Robles, and Lane in RF. They do that, and it's not to compete short term.

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 5846
I don't respect him, don't like what he's done to the fanbase, and don't care. 

He inherited a couple billion and squeezes pennies like no one's business.  He's got weak character, and that's on him to fix, not me.

I'll add he and his family have been feeding us BS PR since they bought the team and treat us like fools who are supposed to blindly follow whatever garbage Stan Kasten, and now Rizzo, throw at us regarding rebuilds, reboots, plans, 8-10 year championship runs, etc.  It's disgraceful and they should be embarrassed for the lack of pride they've taken in the product.  But no amount of money in their pockets can overcome the weakness in their souls. 

And you know the Lerner family for how many years? Have you done business with them? Have you been to their homes? Or are you the lead proponent of LAC which I find absurd since they had the top 5 payrolls in baseball.

Offline rileyn

  • Posts: 4173
As much as I want to win every game, I'm still in the camp of not chasing the Wild Card this year.  Strive to make the playoffs, but don't make a short term decision that might get us into the playoffs.  If anything, this allows Rizzo to be more selective in deadline deals.  Don't just make a deal to get some low level prospect.  Stand firm and wait for teams to sweeten every deal. 

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26695
As much as I want to win every game, I'm still in the camp of not chasing the Wild Card this year.  Strive to make the playoffs, but don't make a short term decision that might get us into the playoffs.  If anything, this allows Rizzo to be more selective in deadline deals.  Don't just make a deal to get some low level prospect.  Stand firm and wait for teams to sweeten every deal.
That’s generally where I’m at.  Sell some guys at the deadline and then maybe get a higher draft pick.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42272
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
As much as I want to win every game, I'm still in the camp of not chasing the Wild Card this year.  Strive to make the playoffs, but don't make a short term decision that might get us into the playoffs.  If anything, this allows Rizzo to be more selective in deadline deals.  Don't just make a deal to get some low level prospect.  Stand firm and wait for teams to sweeten every deal. 
Don't chase, but let it come to us for another month, month and a half.  By this, I mean bring up Wood when he's ready (healthy, mostly), and if Herz / Cavalli / Gray are ready, let them push the weakest link out of the rotation (Corbin). I'd explore a deal for Nunez if they really like him, but try to get him off the 26 man and 40 man sooner rather than later (I don't see him not getting grabbed if we wait until the mid-August). I'd not reject dealing Williams right now, but I'm in no rush. I'd ask for a higher price on Harvey if someone asked, and probably would not take what will be offered for Finnegan, but otherwise the rest of the pen is dealable at any time. I'd really like a better righty bat than Meneses, but I'm not dealing for that yet.

Online IanRubbish

  • Posts: 1264
  • Mike Rizzo...putting the "me" in mediocre baseball
And you know the Lerner family for how many years? Have you done business with them? Have you been to their homes? Or are you the lead proponent of LAC which I find absurd since they had the top 5 payrolls in baseball.

Here we go, another low expectations DC sports fan being gullible and buying into front office propaganda.  The Lerners never actually spent top 5 because they loaded up Max, Stras, and others with heavy deferrals, diminishing their ability to spend for years, and enabling them to throw away more seasons.  They've never done a large contract without heavy deferrals, which limits who this team can sign.  But I get it, you bought into Rizzo's garbage about a "reboot" that has allowed them to spend next to nothing, and be a rare top 10 market team that has gone through 5 straight losing seasons.  Stop being such a fool, this ridiculous PR game doesn't happen in other large markets, fans there expect to win, not hear a GM cover for cheap owners.

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 5846
Here we go, another low expectations DC sports fan being gullible and buying into front office propaganda.  The Lerners never actually spent top 5 because they loaded up Max, Stras, and others with heavy deferrals, diminishing their ability to spend for years, and enabling them to throw away more seasons.  They've never done a large contract without heavy deferrals, which limits who this team can sign.  But I get it, you bought into Rizzo's garbage about a "reboot" that has allowed them to spend next to nothing, and be a rare top 10 market team that has gone through 5 straight losing seasons.  Stop being such a fool, this ridiculous PR game doesn't happen in other large markets, fans there expect to win, not hear a GM cover for cheap owners.
I had hoped for some substantial additions to this years team but we didn't get them . Whether or not Rizzo couldn't sign them or he didn't believe they would be of any value long term we signed fill ins destined to be traded at the deadline and add some players to a depleted farm system. I do not agree with your characterizations of deferrals as an impediment to signing FA's. As Zimmerman once said how much money do you need. Strasburg signed with deferrals as did Scherzer . Who cares as we are talking about generational money. The question you need to ask is would you rather have the Mets wildly spending spree and the results so far or a controlled rebuild that should result in a competitive team next season.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42272
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
There is the Rangers model, where they opened up the pockets a year or two before the prospects were ready. Signed Seager and Semien before Jung or Carter were ready and before drafting Langford. Spent on pitching too. I think the only pieces in place before the spending were Adolis, Lowe, and maybe Jonah Heim.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

  • Posts: 1125
There is the Rangers model, where they opened up the pockets a year or two before the prospects were ready. Signed Seager and Semien before Jung or Carter were ready and before drafting Langford. Spent on pitching too. I think the only pieces in place before the spending were Adolis, Lowe, and maybe Jonah Heim.

The owner has to be willing to spend though. I'm not sure we have that anymore

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11748
  • Sunshine Squad 2024
There is the Rangers model, where they opened up the pockets a year or two before the prospects were ready. Signed Seager and Semien before Jung or Carter were ready and before drafting Langford. Spent on pitching too. I think the only pieces in place before the spending were Adolis, Lowe, and maybe Jonah Heim.
They copied the Nationals model of Werth and Gio!

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26695
I don’t think the Werth contract had deferrals? 

 And of course it’s AAV that counts against the luxury tax calculations.  They spent right up to it. Didn’t someone get fired for miscalculations making them go over it slightly one year? 

NLAC. New Lerners Are Cheaper.

Online IanRubbish

  • Posts: 1264
  • Mike Rizzo...putting the "me" in mediocre baseball
I don’t think the Werth contract had deferrals? 

And of course it’s AAV that counts against the luxury tax calculations.

Werth did not originally, but they were added to his contract in 2016.  Rafael Soriano and Daniel Murphy also had them.  Harper's $300 million rejected extension included $100 million of deferrals.

Deferrals aren't bad per se, but no team besides the Dodgers, who are #1 or 2 in revenue, has used them as aggressively as the Nats.  Deferring 1/2 of Scherzer's contract, and 1/3rd of both Strasburg contracts has set them up for years of a major cash flow drag.  Next year alone they'll have $50 million owed in deferrals, and then they'll have over $40 million through 2027.  The deferrals allowed them to reduce the present value of the contracts in the years of service (the luxury tax hit gets discounted by an agreed upon interest rate), but also to smooth cash outflows by not signing big contracts in the "reboot, rebuid, tank, throw the season away" years.  In effect, they hamstring the team as much as signing a declining player until he's in his 40s.

From a business standpoint, they're also kind of foolish because they reduce the value of the franchise by diminishing the fanbase in the off years.  If there were no deferrals and no tank years, attendance would likely still be 6-7k fans higher per game, ratings higher, which in turn would boost the value of the franchise.  On top of that, the dead money of contract deferral liabilities knocks it down another $100-$150 million.




Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26695
Werth did not originally, but they were added to his contract in 2016.  Rafael Soriano and Daniel Murphy also had them.  Harper's $300 million rejected extension included $100 million of deferrals.

Deferrals aren't bad per se, but no team besides the Dodgers, who are #1 or 2 in revenue, has used them as aggressively as the Nats.  Deferring 1/2 of Scherzer's contract, and 1/3rd of both Strasburg contracts has set them up for years of a major cash flow drag.  Next year alone they'll have $50 million owed in deferrals, and then they'll have over $40 million through 2027.  The deferrals allowed them to reduce the present value of the contracts in the years of service (the luxury tax hit gets discounted by an agreed upon interest rate), but also to smooth cash outflows by not signing big contracts in the "reboot, rebuid, tank, throw the season away" years.  In effect, they hamstring the team as much as signing a declining player until he's in his 40s.

From a business standpoint, they're also kind of foolish because they reduce the value of the franchise by diminishing the fanbase in the off years.  If there were no deferrals and no tank years, attendance would likely still be 6-7k fans higher per game, ratings higher, which in turn would boost the value of the franchise.  On top of that, the dead money of contract deferral liabilities knocks it down another $100-$150 million.
I used to come here in the mid 2010s and say that the Lerners would use paying the deferrals as an excuse to NOT spend when the money came due. And I was laughed at.  Well maybe just generally scoffing.  It’s like a pyramid scheme. If you can’t get players to keep deferring money you run out of cash.  And the players wised up.  Better to get the money as soon as you can.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64887
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
I dont know how you would trade for the offense you need to compete and still have a farm system.

The dead weight is Nunez, Menses, and Gallo.

The next tier is Garcia, Senzel, and Young

Wood can replace one of Meneses or Gallo, but I seriously doubt he provides much offense. So then do you trade for Rooker? Guerrero? Kyle Tucker? Alex Bregman?

Whats left of your farm system.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 2229
This year always was about do the best you can with what you have until the outfield and third baseman prospects are ready to take over. The surprise has been the starting pitchers (Doo?). Full speed ahead with plan. Add a starter for next year and it should be a fun time on South Capital Street in 2025.

Online IanRubbish

  • Posts: 1264
  • Mike Rizzo...putting the "me" in mediocre baseball
I used to come here in the mid 2010s and say that the Lerners would use paying the deferrals as an excuse to NOT spend when the money came due.

You were right then, it's exactly what happened. 

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42272
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
I dont know how you would trade for the offense you need to compete and still have a farm system.

The dead weight is Nunez, Menses, and Gallo.

The next tier is Garcia, Senzel, and Young

Wood can replace one of Meneses or Gallo, but I seriously doubt he provides much offense. So then do you trade for Rooker? Guerrero? Kyle Tucker? Alex Bregman?

Whats left of your farm system.

Young deadweight? dude has compiled 2.0 fWAR over 278 career PAs and 79 games. Yes, the top 2 prospects are CFs, but it's much easier to see them in the corners and Young in CF than it is to see him getting replaced by Hassell, Lile, Pinckney, or by anything other than a big bucks corner OF who pushes Crews to CF. More like he's trade bait given the system depth than deadweight. Are you that much more in on Lane Thomas, Eddie Rosario or even Jesse Winker than Young?

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64887
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Young deadweight? dude has compiled 2.0 fWAR over 278 career PAs and 79 games. Yes, the top 2 prospects are CFs, but it's much easier to see them in the corners and Young in CF than it is to see him getting replaced by Hassell, Lile, Pinckney, or by anything other than a big bucks corner OF who pushes Crews to CF. More like he's trade bait given the system depth than deadweight. Are you that much more in on Lane Thomas, Eddie Rosario or even Jesse Winker than Young?
Offensively, he's dead weight on this team. Particularly with no other hitters.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26695
Offensively, he's dead weight on this team. Particularly with no other hitters.
You’re just upset because he beat out your dude Victor.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42272
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Offensively, he's dead weight on this team. Particularly with no other hitters.
.338 OBP is not dead weight.

I see the .050 ISO, but he has 14 net steals and 140 ABs. That's like an extra .100 points on the SLG and ISO. A .338 OBP and a .429 SLG + steals is like .750 OPS out of a CF. That's plus offense.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42272
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
.338 OBP is not dead weight.

I see the .050 ISO, but he has 14 net steals and 140 ABs. That's like an extra .100 points on the SLG and ISO. A .338 OBP and a .429 SLG + steals is like .750 OPS out of a CF. That's plus offense.
by the way, I know it isn't quite like that. Doubles and triples clear bases and score guys from 1st if they are on, so of ocurse they are worth more than a walk and a steal. That said, OPS and SLG are off on weighted run value, either, and base running other than steals are out of my ersatz enhanced SLG.

More statistically valid weighting would be his "offense" value on FG. 1.9, which is 12th among qualified rookies (45 total).

When you factor in defense, he's 5th in fWAR among all qualified rookies

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64887
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
.338 OBP is not dead weight.

I see the .050 ISO, but he has 14 net steals and 140 ABs. That's like an extra .100 points on the SLG and ISO. A .338 OBP and a .429 SLG + steals is like .750 OPS out of a CF. That's plus offense.
Its dead weight on a team with no other offense. He will never get enough steals to make up for a complete lack of slugging. Thats not how steals work. Stolen bases still have minimal impact to scoring. Thats why attempts are down from last year. If they mattered, the Nats would be the number 1 offense in baseball.

Wood takes his spot. Then you have to trade for a first baseman or DH. And even after that, you're still missing a middle of the order hitter.