Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?

[GataNats]

Finnegan is going to be 33 after this season. Way more likelu his arm falls off than Harvey.

Lane Thomas is effectively blocked come September

You want to list all the major injuries of both?

[Slateman]

You want to list all the major injuries of both?

Only if you really need an explanation as to why heavily used relievers who are in their mid 30s arent reliable.

You trade everything you can that wont be here in 2026. Senzel, Lane, Harvey, Finnegan, Vargas .... they all need to go.

[GataNats]

Only if you really need an explanation as to why heavily used relievers who are in their mid 30s arent reliable.

You trade everything you can that wont be here in 2026. Senzel, Lane, Harvey, Finnegan, Vargas .... they all need to go.

Major injuries are way more serious than a guy that is two years.   Who has been much better than Harvey.   Who has better stuff than Harvey.   

[Slateman]

Major injuries are way more serious than a guy that is two years.   Who has been much better than Harvey.   Who has better stuff than Harvey.   

Finnegan has the 7th most innings among relievers since 2021, and throws the hardest of anyone on that list who is in their 30s.

We need to cash in now before he is too hurt or he regresses. Signing relievers in their mid 30s to contracts rarely works out for the team. Time to cash in.

Also, Finnegan doesnt have better stuff than Harvey. Its really not even close. And Finnegan's underlying metrics indicate a ton of luck, with Harvey having superior xERA, FIP, strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate.

[Smithian]

I was firmly in the "sell" camp. If the Nats find themselves with a winning record at the deadline, I shift off "sell" to "stand pat while keeping a close eye on the waiver wire and salary dumps"

[nobleisthyname]

What is the difference between the sell everything camp and the sell players with internal replacements camp? Just Nick Senzel? Finnegan and Harvey too I suppose?

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Milo Minderbender was a selective seller...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What is the difference between the sell everything camp and the sell players with internal replacements camp? Just Nick Senzel? Finnegan and Harvey too I suppose?

If you don't think Crews is ready, then it's maybe not trade Winker and Thomas, keep at least Harvey and Finnegan, keep Senzel, probably keep at least one of your middle bullpen guys.  Sell everything is the whole bullpen (except maybe Garcia who has multiple years of control), sell the FA position players, sell Thomas too. Whatever you can move. At least 7 guys (Finnegan, Harvey, Floro, Law, Thomas, Winker, Senzel), plus anything you can get for Williams and Gallo, release Rosario.

[imref]

Morosi:

Multiple Nationals players have generated trade interest ahead of next month's deadline, including Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas.

But at this point, it's not clear at all that they're going to sell.

In fact, the Nats are tied for a playoff spot.

[Smithian]

There has to be a decent bat out there who is 1B/DH tied. If the Nats are can eat some salary, that guy is probably available for a very limited return. That is the add I would make if the Nats are over .500 close to the trading deadline.

Even then, I'm not certain I would make the move unless the Nats got lucky and were last option for a team trying to unload a player. If James Wood gets healthy and forces a July promotion, maybe they just shift Jesse Winker to primarily DH and your main OF is Wood-Young-Thomas. Then you just figure it out at 1B with a mix of flawed in house options.

I know 3B is ugly right now, but with Senzel, Lipcomb, Vargas I am less worried about that spot than I am DH/1B.

[PowerBoater69]

What is the difference between the sell everything camp and the sell players with internal replacements camp? Just Nick Senzel? Finnegan and Harvey too I suppose?

I'd offer Williams and Thomas extensions before trying to trade them. We have a ton of young pitching talent but if Williams can continue what he's done this season he's a bargain at this current price. Rizzo has proven that he can always find relievers so if he can get something good for the ones we've got I'd let them go.

[PowerBoater69]

If you don't think Crews is ready, then it's maybe not trade Winker and Thomas, keep at least Harvey and Finnegan, keep Senzel, probably keep at least one of your middle bullpen guys.  Sell everything is the whole bullpen (except maybe Garcia who has multiple years of control), sell the FA position players, sell Thomas too. Whatever you can move. At least 7 guys (Finnegan, Harvey, Floro, Law, Thomas, Winker, Senzel), plus anything you can get for Williams and Gallo, release Rosario.

Crews is doing better lately, right? I don't follow the minors very closely but it looks like his slash line is moving upwards. He's older than Zim, Harper, and Soto were when they got called up, so he better start showing he was worth that #2 pick.  Imagine the medial attention if the Commanders or Wizards #2 overall pick was struggling in the minors, the  Nats seem to get a pass.

[Slateman]

Brett rooker, Vlad Guerrero, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, and Christian Walker are about what it is for 1B/DH.

3B is good with Senzel's solid defense and 112 wRC+. We probably need another bat to platoon against LHP. That would mean kicking Lipscomb down to Lipscomb and get rid of Nunez.

And I still dont think this is enough. The second half schedule has some good teams and this is all dependant on health. As much as Meneses is turning it around, we really need to add Rooker and one other hitter (I'll say Walker) just to be competitive.

We're essentially missing 2-3 middle of the order hitters. Relying on Wood to be one of them is essentially admitting you are okay with failing.

[nobleisthyname]

If you don't think Crews is ready, then it's maybe not trade Winker and Thomas, keep at least Harvey and Finnegan, keep Senzel, probably keep at least one of your middle bullpen guys.  Sell everything is the whole bullpen (except maybe Garcia who has multiple years of control), sell the FA position players, sell Thomas too. Whatever you can move. At least 7 guys (Finnegan, Harvey, Floro, Law, Thomas, Winker, Senzel), plus anything you can get for Williams and Gallo, release Rosario.

I'm somewhere between the two camps then but leaning heavily towards trade everyone.

[imref]

I wonder what it would take to get Canha from Detroit? FA at the end of the year.

[GataNats]

Brett rooker, Vlad Guerrero, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, and Christian Walker are about what it is for 1B/DH.

3B is good with Senzel's solid defense and 112 wRC+. We probably need another bat to platoon against LHP. That would mean kicking Lipscomb down to Lipscomb and get rid of Nunez.

And I still dont think this is enough. The second half schedule has some good teams and this is all dependant on health. As much as Meneses is turning it around, we really need to add Rooker and one other hitter (I'll say Walker) just to be competitive.

We're essentially missing 2-3 middle of the order hitters. Relying on Wood to be one of them is essentially admitting you are okay with failing.

Senzel is a butcher at third

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Let's assume the Nats decide to bring in a 1B on an expiring contract in exchange for maybe an AA/A+ likely reliever / potential starter and a position player, same level, with some serious flaws but some MLB-caliber tools, similar to Made and Herz last year. Maybe a bit less of a price for some of these guys if you don't think their performance is as good as Candy's 1st half.

Josh Bell has turned his season around after a bad April. In May and June, he's hit .299 / .344 / .461 over 183 PAs. he'll be a 32 year old FA after the season, so somebody we might offer 2-3 years to.

Os could conceivably part with Ryan O'Hearn given he's squeezed into a short side of a platoon with Cowser in left lately.

If the BJs wave a white flag, conceivably Justin Turner would be available.

I don't suspect Walker or Hoskins will be available given that the D-Backs look like serious WC contenders and the Brewers are wining their division. I also suspect Alonso would be subject to a too rich bidding war if the Mets stop chasing the W.

[imref]

Getting Josh Bell now would be a cheap upgrade over Meneses.

We could field:

Abrams - SS
Thomas - RF
Winker - DH
Bell - 1B
Crews - LF
Senzel - 3B
Garcia / Vargas - 2B
Ruiz / Millas - C
Young - CF

That's a massive improvement IMHO and gives us a much better chance to get the wild card this year.

[Slateman]

Let's assume the Nats decide to bring in a 1B on an expiring contract in exchange for maybe an AA/A+ likely reliever / potential starter and a position player, same level, with some serious flaws but some MLB-caliber tools, similar to Made and Herz last year. Maybe a bit less of a price for some of these guys if you don't think their performance is as good as Candy's 1st half.

Josh Bell has turned his season around after a bad April. In May and June, he's hit .299 / .344 / .461 over 183 PAs. he'll be a 32 year old FA after the season, so somebody we might offer 2-3 years to.

Os could conceivably part with Ryan O'Hearn given he's squeezed into a short side of a platoon with Cowser in left lately.

If the BJs wave a white flag, conceivably Justin Turner would be available.

I don't suspect Walker or Hoskins will be available given that the D-Backs look like serious WC contenders and the Brewers are wining their division. I also suspect Alonso would be subject to a too rich bidding war if the Mets stop chasing the W.

You're basically betting on Crews and Wood being 3/4 level hitters. I think thats extremely unlikely, and we would regret not selling.

I also think Rizzo has to do it NOW, rather than wait until the end of July. I also think you should target a third base replacement that can hit middle of the order.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You're basically betting on Crews and Wood being 3/4 level hitters. I think thats extremely unlikely, and we would regret not selling.

I also think Rizzo has to do it NOW, rather than wait until the end of July. I also think you should target a third base replacement that can hit middle of the order.

My main mode now is "selective selling" #2 in our poll, but prepared to shift to #4 moving minor pieces for an upgrade if it is 7/23 and we are in WC position.

On that time frame, if you were to try to go for WC, I think the moves would be late enough so you would know something about at least one of Wood or Crews. I don't see a scenario where Wood shows up, falls flat on his butt, and we are close enough to a WC run that we aren't in a sell everything that moves mode.

More or less, the scenario only works if you have one of Thomas or Winker still with the team doing well, Wood performing, and other pieces fall into place. Then a Bell lets you fill your biggest hole, and you just live with Senzel and the catching situation.

2 - current mix, maybe with more time to Millas
3 - Bell
4 -Garcia
5 - Senzel / Vargas
6 - Abrams
7 - Wood or Crews
8 - Young
9 - Crews or Wood
DH - Thomas or Winker

Bench - Vargas or Senzel, Meneses, backup catcher, Nunez. Names can change.

If you haven't moved one of Winker or Thomas, then maybe Crews is stashed until mid-August in AAA.

[Slateman]

You pretty much have to platoon Garcia at this point.

Bell simply doesnt give you enough ass in the lineup unlees Crews and Wood are low .800 OPS hitters. Theres no half in or half out. Either go get the hitters or maximize your assets and prepare for next year

[welch]

My main mode now is "selective selling" #2 in our poll, but prepared to shift to #4 moving minor pieces for an upgrade if it is 7/23 and we are in WC position.

On that time frame, if you were to try to go for WC, I think the moves would be late enough so you would know something about at least one of Wood or Crews. I don't see a scenario where Wood shows up, falls flat on his butt, and we are close enough to a WC run that we aren't in a sell everything that moves mode.

More or less, the scenario only works if you have one of Thomas or Winker still with the team doing well, Wood performing, and other pieces fall into place. Then a Bell lets you fill your biggest hole, and you just live with Senzel and the catching situation.

2 - current mix, maybe with more time to Millas
3 - Bell
4 -Garcia
5 - Senzel / Vargas
6 - Abrams
7 - Wood or Crews
8 - Young
9 - Crews or Wood
DH - Thomas or Winker

Bench - Vargas or Senzel, Meneses, backup catcher, Nunez. Names can change.

If you haven't moved one of Winker or Thomas, then maybe Crews is stashed until mid-August in AAA.

Who do you trade for Bell? I just took a look at the Marlins starting lineup as today, and they need help at C, RF, and 3B. And everyone needs young pitchers. What package would fetch Bell? And, yes, Bell is exactly who the Nats would need...

[imref]

Pickney (our #16 prospect)?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Who do you trade for Bell? I just took a look at the Marlins starting lineup as today, and they need help at C, RF, and 3B. And everyone needs young pitchers. What package would fetch Bell? And, yes, Bell is exactly who the Nats would need...

I think it would be less than what we got back for Candelario. A+/AA position player with some major league tools but a hole in his profile (that's essentially what Made was), and a not ready for the majors arm, with a good pitch and maybe another that's average, who has some potential to start but most likely is a reliever (that's Herz). Who would that be in this system? I don't think we have anyone that matches that profile, so it would be a different mix. Maybe a reliever in A+ who piles up Ks but walks too many like Brendan Collins. Maybe 2 relievers plus a Pinckney?

[Slateman]

Bell should cost next to nothing. I just dont see how Bell fixes the offense