Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?

[imref]

Bell has posted a .762 OPS in June versus .653 for Meneses. Maybe that makes a game or two win difference?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Bell should cost next to nothing. I just dont see how Bell fixes the offense

something about a 130 or so wRC+ the past 2 months would say he would help a good deal

[welch]

I think it would be less than what we got back for Candelario. A+/AA position player with some major league tools but a hole in his profile (that's essentially what Made was), and a not ready for the majors arm, with a good pitch and maybe another that's average, who has some potential to start but most likely is a reliever (that's Herz). Who would that be in this system? I don't think we have anyone that matches that profile, so it would be a different mix. Maybe a reliever in A+ who piles up Ks but walks too many like Brendan Collins. Maybe 2 relievers plus a Pinckney?

Offer them Pinckney, someone like Adon, and a minor league reliever like Cate or Cronin for Bell and the rights to Nunez. Miami needs a catcher, but there is no god reason to trade any of the Nats top three, while Pineda is having a miserable season at the plate.

[Slateman]

Offer them Pinckney, someone like Adon, and a minor league reliever like Cate or Cronin for Bell and the rights to Nunez. Miami needs a catcher, but there is no god reason to trade any of the Nats top three, while Pineda is having a miserable season at the plate.

What the freak? I am not trading Pickney, Adon, Cate, or Cronin for Josh Bell. Bell is super streaky and even this latest hot streak is what you would expect from a number 7 hitter.

Josh Bell gets you Brayan Romero

[welch]

What the freak? I am not trading Pickney, Adon, Cate, or Cronin for Josh Bell. Bell is super streaky and even this latest hot streak is what you would expect from a number 7 hitter.

Josh Bell gets you Brayan Romero

That amounted to Pinckney for Bell and Nunez. Adon is a thrower who fails years after year. Cate has failed AAA.  Cronin is recovering from a shoulder injury, although he might now be recovering well. So keep him.

[Slateman]

That amounted to Pinckney for Bell and Nunez. Adon is a thrower who fails years after year. Cate has failed AAA.  Cronin is recovering from a shoulder injury, although he might now be recovering well. So keep him.

Pickney is way too much for Bell.

Cate is learning to be a reliever. He's cut his walk rate to acceptable levels and he did quite well in Double A last year. So no, Im not giving up a lefty with the best curveball in the system for half a season of Josh Bell at 16 million

No, we're not giving up either of them for Josh Bell to fall back to earth. He's washed. We got what we needed out of him.

[welch]

Pickney is way too much for Bell.

Cate is learning to be a reliever. He's cut his walk rate to acceptable levels and he did quite well in Double A last year. So no, Im not giving up a lefty with the best curveball in the system for half a season of Josh Bell at 16 million

No, we're not giving up either of them for Josh Bell to fall back to earth. He's washed. We got what we needed out of him.

So, most of all, you do not want Josh Bell.

[imref]

So, most of all, you do not want Josh Bell.

Joey Meneses has multiple accounts on this site.

[Slateman]

So, most of all, you do not want Josh Bell.

Not for the price of a real prospect. We would he doing the Marlins a huge favor by taking on Bell and his salary. The trade price should reflect that

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't think Pinckney should be an untouchable if we do decide to upgrade a position on the current roster with a rental. Given the guys ahead of him and behind him (Crews/ Wood ahead, Lile close behind, De La Rosa and Vacquero in the distance), you'd think a middling OF prospect wouldn't be off the table in the right deal.

We can differ on Bell or the exact name we'd offer or whether he's a hard pass. I'm guessing the Marlins would make the cost contingent on how much salary relief they get - higher value prospect if they eat some of the remaining salary.

[Slateman]

I don't think Pinckney should be an untouchable if we do decide to upgrade a position on the current roster with a rental. Given the guys ahead of him and behind him (Crews/ Wood ahead, Lile close behind, De La Rosa and Vacquero in the distance), you'd think a middling OF prospect wouldn't be off the table in the right deal.

We can differ on Bell or the exact name we'd offer or whether he's a hard pass. I'm guessing the Marlins would make the cost contingent on how much salary relief they get - higher value prospect if they eat some of the remaining salary.

I'm not saying he's untouchable. I'm saying I'm not trading him for a first baseman on a 16 million dollar contract who is bottom third of the league in xBA, xSLG, EV, and bat speed.

Eating the contract does nothing. Why would we care if they eat ~8 million? If money is that tight in DC, then there should be zero talk of going for the WC. Its in Rizzo's best interest to trade anyone is making more than the minimum.

[imref]

The Padres series is um...pretty important. They are .5 game ahead of us for the last WC spot right now.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Padres series is um...pretty important. They are .5 game ahead of us for the last WC spot right now.

need one win, at least. dropping 3.5 off the pace means the next win streak / soft opponent only gets us back to competitive rather than pulling ahead of the big boys.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Svrluga solidly in the "Sell irrespective of the standings" camp.

As the deadline nears, the Nats are in the playoff hunt. Sell anyway.
GM Mike Rizzo, with some interesting calls to make in the next month, could use the ’22 Orioles as a model

Not only the obvious moves if you are in the sell mode, like trading Winker and Floro, but also the more painful ones, like trading Harvey, Finnegan, and Thomas while the team is on the cusp of contending. Says look to the Os in 2022:

Two summers ago, the Orioles approached the trade deadline in a position similar to the current Nats — on the fringes of the race, but with a higher probability of fading down the stretch than roaring into October as a true contender. So the day before the deadline, Elias swallowed hard and traded first baseman Trey Mancini, a franchise pillar, and all-star closer Jorge Lopez. The return: Six players, two of whom are helping the current major league club, and three more among the team’s deep stable of prospects, according to MLB.com.

Notes Mike Elias had to fly back to Baltimore from Texas to explain to the fanbase and media why they pulled the plug and dealt.

“This is not something, obviously, where we’re putting all of our chips and all this work that we’ve been doing around the organization for the past three-and-a-half to four years into the second half of 2022,” Elias told reporters that day. “This is a decade-long window that I think is opening up. … The most important thing to us is we prioritize this long window that we feel is ahead of us among all other considerations.”
...
There’s value to be had at the deadline, not for 2024 but beyond. The Nats should seek it. It’s not imperative that they move Harvey, who had held opponents to a .652 OPS and posted a 2.84 ERA before Monday’s meltdown. It’s not required that they deal Finnegan, whose 22 saves rank third in baseball, or Thomas, who had a 3.1 WAR last season, according to FanGraphs.

But to fling open that long window even further, it would be smart.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

It’s an obvious thing to say, but it really depends on the return you can get and also if you realistically feel a Wild Card can be attained.

None of these guys are bringing system-changing prospects.  We’re talking lottery tickets/depth.  There’s value in that of course.  If you get back say 5 or 6 prospects at the deadline and 1 or 2 become MLB contributors ala Lane Thomas, that’s worthwhile.

With such a jumbled race, it will be interesting how many teams are buying and how many are selling.  If we’re one of the few sellers and a lot of teams are buying, obviously that drives the price up.

I think right now it’s far more likely the team is selling than buying. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I rearranged this this thread and broke out a lot of the deal ideas.  This isn't really about how to break up the team or what trades should the Nats do now. We actually have a "sell" thread that I'm bumping that's more suited for deal ideas.
https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=41399.0
This thread is about what it would take for you to not sell, or perhaps even add, in order to go for the playoffs. Also a worthy conversation, even if after games 1 & 2 in SD it feels like the only answer is "a miracle." Knock Wood, we'll find Crews that can do it.

[imref]

TalkNats covering Rizzo on the Junkies this morning:

Mike Rizzo says he's received "feeler calls" on some of his players from other GMs in the past couple of weeks. There is nothing decided what the Nats will do. Rizzo considers it an "exciting time." Rizzo says he WILL be calling up his top prospects.  "These teams know we're coming."

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

TalkNats covering Rizzo on the Junkies this morning:

They're nuts if they don't sell off Finnegan, Winker and Harvey for prospects.

[ZimW1N]

This Padres series has taken me off the fence and planted me firmly into the sell category. Finnegan, Harvey, Floro, Thomas, and Winker need to be moved at the deadline.

That being said I would like to see us grabbing a 1st baseman with some team control to start our build toward 2025. That is our first real competitive year for this new core of young pitching and Wood/Crews

[tomwvr]

This Padres series has taken me off the fence and planted me firmly into the sell category. Finnegan, Harvey, Floro, Thomas, and Winker need to be moved at the deadline.

That being said I would like to see us grabbing a 1st baseman with some team control to start our build toward 2025. That is our first real competitive year for this new core of young pitching and Wood/Crews

All you listed other than Thomas and perhaps Finnegan (depending on what they can get) would be fine with me.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

There’s no reason for Rizzo to declare he’s “selling” now.  No reason to hurt team morale now or let opposing teams know.  Try and leverage the best offers possible.

A few years ago you would have assumed we’d be calling up a wave of prospects to a terrible team way under .500.  It’s awesome that there’s a baseline foundation for a competitive .500ish team with some younger pieces to build around, then you add the elite prospects like Wood, Crews, House, Cavalli, etc.

[Natsinpwc]

There’s no reason for Rizzo to declare he’s “selling” now.  No reason to hurt team morale now or let opposing teams know.  Try and leverage the best offers possible.

A few years ago you would have assumed we’d be calling up a wave of prospects to a terrible team way under .500.  It’s awesome that there’s a baseline foundation for a competitive .500ish team with some younger pieces to build around, then you add the elite prospects like Wood, Crews, House, Cavalli, etc.

The pitching foundation seems better than expected with Herz and Irvin Parker. And of course Gore. Abrams will stick somewhere. Ruiz is disappointing.  Garcia? Not sure. Most everyone else will be gone so not sure about the everyday lineup foundation until some of the young guns arrive.

Of course Rizzo should not play his hand. With so many NL teams in the wild card there may be few sellers. And more buyers. Helps Rizzo.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

The pitching foundation seems better than expected with Herz and Irvin Parker. And of course Gore. Abrams will stick somewhere. Ruiz is disappointing.  Garcia? Not sure. Most everyone else will be gone so not sure about the everyday lineup foundation until some of the young guns arrive.

Of course Rizzo should not play his hand. With so many NL teams in the wild card there may be few sellers. And more buyers. Helps Rizzo.

Pitching is what can get very expensive and hard to acquire, and coming into this year, and especially early last year, we looked like we had an iffy Gore, Gray, and Cavalli possibly after he recovered from TJ.  It can be argued we eventually need that Max or Stras clear #1, but we seem to at least have 2-5 covered and then some.

I agree we still have some questions on the future of the position players.  Ruiz certainly has been disappointing.  Hopefully he can improve as he’s still fairly young.  Garcia seems like he’s older than he is, but agreed he’s just “ok” for now.

[Scrapple]

The pitching foundation seems better than expected with Herz and Irvin Parker. And of course Gore. Abrams will stick somewhere. Ruiz is disappointing.  Garcia? Not sure. Most everyone else will be gone so not sure about the everyday lineup foundation until some of the young guns arrive.

Of course Rizzo should not play his hand. With so many NL teams in the wild card there may be few sellers. And more buyers. Helps Rizzo.

“Ruiz is disappointing”
Yes, yes he is. Hard to believe Rizzo would even consider giving Ruiz that kind of money when our owners have clearly advised him to spend wisely on their limited budget.
Ruiz has a bad non-athletic body, he can’t throw out runners, he’s a popcorn hitter at best, and he runs so slow you need 3 base hits and a handicap parking pass to get him around the damn bases safely.
Wouldn’t you just love to ask Rizzo why he thought Ruiz was worth $53 million dollars???
Left handed hitting catchers capable of playing at the MLB level are certainly hard to find and when you do find one, it certainly is nice if you can lock them up. That said, Ruiz is not one of them. Ruiz seems to be nothing more than an organizational type catcher that  should come up and be sent back down after your real catchers recover from injury. Ruiz is very good at framing pitches but that certainly doesn’t add up to $53 million in my book. Rizzo has done some great things for us and I’m not calling for his head, but his deal with Ruiz has certainly raised some eyebrows. 

[IanRubbish]

Rizzo has done some great things for us and I’m not calling for his head, but his deal with Ruiz has certainly raised some eyebrows. 

Rizzo has made some good trades - Trea Turner and Lane Thomas really stand out, as DJ Herz might be a winner as well.  But he doubles down on his mistakes because of the CYA culture of the org. set by ownership.  He traded for Ruiz, doubled down by giving him an absurd contract, and the team is now tripling down by playing him because of that bad contract.  Having him DH on off days could even be quadrupling down.

Keibert alone won't stop 2025 from being a better season, but he could be a drag on the franchise for awhile.