Poll

Wood and Cavalli are with the Nats & we hold 3rd WC by a game on 7/23. What should the Nats do?

Tank! Sell any vet not under control after 2025. Restock. Target is a long term rebuild.
5 (18.5%)
Selective selling of FAs you can replace internally. E.g., Floro for Ribalta, Law for Ferrer, etc...
10 (37%)
Promote appropriately but otherwise hold tight and give the squad a chance.
8 (29.6%)
Try a Candelario trade in reverse to plug a weakness (1B) - say Made and Rutledge
3 (11.1%)
Go for it. Lots of CFs coming. Trade a Lile / Hassell / Vaquero and go for WC.
1 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 27

Voting closed: June 30, 2024, 12:27:53 PM

Author Topic: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?  (Read 13655 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 3313
Its dead weight on a team with no other offense. He will never get enough steals to make up for a complete lack of slugging. Thats not how steals work. Stolen bases still have minimal impact to scoring. Thats why attempts are down from last year. If they mattered, the Nats would be the number 1 offense in baseball.

Wood takes his spot. Then you have to trade for a first baseman or DH. And even after that, you're still missing a middle of the order hitter.

You either trust the WAR calculations or you don't. By fWAR Young has been worth half a win this season from baserunning and defense alone. Even if you don't trust them fully they're at least directionally correct.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64890
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
You either trust the WAR calculations or you don't. By fWAR Young has been worth half a win this season from baserunning and defense alone. Even if you don't trust them fully they're at least directionally correct.
The defensive value is irrelevant to the offensive concerns. When you only have two hitters hitting over .250, then stealing second base is irrelevant.

Offline Count Walewski

  • Posts: 2727
Young is literally the most valuable position player on the team right now according to fWAR.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64890
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Then enjoy scoring one run and losing games in which your starting pitcher only gives up 2 runs

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 3313
The defensive value is irrelevant to the offensive concerns. When you only have two hitters hitting over .250, then stealing second base is irrelevant.

The main concern is winning ball games. Where the value comes from to win those games is irrelevant. I don't want to give up a 3-4 win defensive minded CF for a 2 win corner outfielder who can OPS .750 and hit 20 home runs.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64890
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
The main concern is winning ball games. Where the value comes from to win those games is irrelevant. I don't want to give up a 3-4 win defensive minded CF for a 2 win corner outfielder who can OPS .750 and hit 20 home runs.
I'll say it again for the people in the back: WAR does not equate to actual wins. It is an artifical measurement, developed to analyze a player's contribution to the game.

And we're not replacing him with a corner outfielder. James Wood plays good defense in CF.

We're a sub .500 with a negative run differential, but the 12th best ERA. This team needs offense.

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 3313
I'll say it again for the people in the back: WAR does not equate to actual wins. It is an artifical measurement, developed to analyze a player's contribution to the game.

And we're not replacing him with a corner outfielder. James Wood plays good defense in CF.

We're a sub .500 with a negative run differential, but the 12th best ERA. This team needs offense.

So you're talking about ideal roster construction. I'm fine with that, but when you call Young deadweight on offense that's not how he should be valued in any trade discussions.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64890
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
So you're talking about ideal roster construction. I'm fine with that, but when you call Young deadweight on offense that's not how he should be valued in any trade discussions.
He is deadweight on this offense. He has no trade value. He's a 4th outfielder on any competent offense.

Offline Count Walewski

  • Posts: 2727
Who's he blocking? Where's the slugger who's not getting plate appearances because Young exists? Crews and Wood come up this fall and between them two and Young and Thomas we have 3 OFs and a DH. You can cut Young if and when the Nationals farm system produces 3 better OFs. For now, he's the team leader in WAR among position players and it's laughable to call him deadweight. Nothing about Young being on the team prevents them from signing Pete Alonso or whoever to play 1B next year.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42273
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
I'll say it again for the people in the back: WAR does not equate to actual wins. It is an artifical measurement, developed to analyze a player's contribution to the game.

And we're not replacing him with a corner outfielder. James Wood plays good defense in CF.

I'm not going to push back too hard, except I would say there's a lot deader wood that could get pushed off the roster to increase run production. Wood has played half time in the corner outfield at Rochester and, IIRC, played mostly corner when he was on the same roster as Crews and Hassell. If you believe the analysts, while he plays very well now in CF, he's due to put on about 30 more pounds so sticking in CF long term is questionable. Seems pretty obvious when Wood is up, one of Rosario or Thomas (and Vargas / Winker) loses time before Young. That is the source of one power upgrade.

Young makes the top of the order hitting behind him a lot more dangerous. He's a good fit for this offense.

I'll give you this, though: if your long term outfield is Crews / Abrams / Wood, there's no room for Young to play.

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 3313
He is deadweight on this offense. He has no trade value. He's a 4th outfielder on any competent offense.

So you simply disagree with the WAR calculation then. That's fine, but I personally am not ready to jettison him just yet.

Also, I do disagree about WAR not equating to actual wins (at least not any less so than any other stat, and much more so than just about all of them). Team WAR correlates very strongly with team wins.

Online imref

  • Posts: 44494
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
So if we're selling...how about Trevor Williams to Toronto for Addison Barger to solve our 1B? .911 OPS at AAA with 7 home runs though he struggled in a very short stint in the majors.

https://www.mlb.com/player/addison-barger-680718

https://www.mlb.com/news/addison-barger-makes-mlb-debut-for-blue-jays-vs-royals

It would probably take more than Williams for Toronto to make that deal though.

Online IanRubbish

  • Posts: 1265
  • Mike Rizzo...putting the "me" in mediocre baseball
It would probably take more than Williams for Toronto to make that deal though.

I doubt they'd part ways with him regardless of what Rizzo offers.  Candelario had an OPS around .820 last year and we did not get a high level prospect in return.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42273
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Is Toronto is a buy now position. they are 4.5 behind the Twins and 7 behind KC for the last 2 WC slots. IF they do want to try, then they should move quick.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64890
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Is Toronto is a buy now position. they are 4.5 behind the Twins and 7 behind KC for the last 2 WC slots. IF they do want to try, then they should move quick.
No. They sellin. None of their young core ever took flight.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42273
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
No. They sellin. None of their young core ever took flight.
my impression as well. Lot's of teams to get by and games to make up to get to a WC spot.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11748
  • Sunshine Squad 2024
Is Toronto is a buy now position. they are 4.5 behind the Twins and 7 behind KC for the last 2 WC slots. IF they do want to try, then they should move quick.
Go look at Toronto roster. You'll easily convince yourself that they're due a hot streak. Then you'll check in a couple weeks and they'll be 5.5 behind the Twins, maybe 6.5. Tough, but doable. You'll look at that roster and say it has to happen. Then you'll check in August and it'll still be around 5.5 behind and probably too late.

I think they'll can Schneider soon and see if there is any surge before the deadline.

Online imref

  • Posts: 44494
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Bump. 2 back of the WC.

Online IanRubbish

  • Posts: 1265
  • Mike Rizzo...putting the "me" in mediocre baseball
Bump. 2 back of the WC.

Fangraphs has them at an 8/10th of 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.  There are 8 NL teams not in first place with better records. 

Offline NatsAllThe Way

  • Posts: 14532
Fangraphs has them at an 8/10th of 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.  There are 8 NL teams not in first place with better records. 
So you're saying there's a chance.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42273
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
I would like to see how they do when Wood is up. Losing Williams hurts for now.

It's not likely that they'll get to the point where I'd hold off trading any vet on an expiring contract, and would deal any vet with an extra year for the right deal. I'll be curious about the price on Finny and Harvey.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64890
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
I just don't see how you get 3-5 good hitters without giving away the farm.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42273
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
I just don't see how you get 3-5 good hitters without giving away the farm.
you don't, especially not for a token wild card appearance.

The biggest change of plans would be some early call ups like Wood and maybe Crews, which will involve jettisoning some vets, maybe trying to make more use of the last bullpen and position player roster slots, and perhaps holding back on dealing a few vets who are currently contributing (guys who are under control next year, or maybe even a Winker or a Senzel).

There's almost no way I would not move a Winker or a Senzel if they are playing well, and if there's a market for Vargas, Vargas. I would have put Williams in that bin, too, but I don't see a market if he's hurt. There's so much valueless deadwood among the position players (Gallo, Meneses, Romero, Nunez), I hope most are cut when Wood or even Yepez is ready.

Online welch

  • Posts: 17185
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Nats should make trades only to improve for long term, and especially for next season. Do not trade prospects for any late-season rentals, not even if the team might be close to a wild card. That would be reaching for fool's gold. Senzel has looked good enough, to my surprise, while House is a year or two from the majors. As best I understand Senzel's contract, he is under Nats control through next season. If so, and if his improvement is real, offer him a two year extension. And keep Vargas.

Maybe flippage usually fails. The Nats got good prospects when they traded good players, like Trea and Soto, but not much when they traded middling players.

Of course, they should dump Gallo and Nunez, since both are a waste of space right now. Further, Gallo seems to have no trade value. If teams offer something good for Winker, take it. Too bad that Williams is hurt, and likely to be out until the deadline...or next year if his recovery lasts as long as Gray's has.

Promote Wood to the majors, and promote Crews to Rochester. Hold steady with Gray and be patient with Cavalli's rehab. Make Corbin an assistant assistant pitching coach as soon as Gray returns. 

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 64890
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
you don't, especially not for a token wild card appearance.

The biggest change of plans would be some early call ups like Wood and maybe Crews, which will involve jettisoning some vets, maybe trying to make more use of the last bullpen and position player roster slots, and perhaps holding back on dealing a few vets who are currently contributing (guys who are under control next year, or maybe even a Winker or a Senzel).

There's almost no way I would not move a Winker or a Senzel if they are playing well, and if there's a market for Vargas, Vargas. I would have put Williams in that bin, too, but I don't see a market if he's hurt. There's so much valueless deadwood among the position players (Gallo, Meneses, Romero, Nunez), I hope most are cut when Wood or even Yepez is ready.

You're not trading Winker or Senzel if you're going for a wild card spot. Winker is a 130+ wRC+ against RHP. Senzel is the only every day third baseman you have that can be a MLB average bat. Vargas has to stay, if for nothing else, to platoon with Garcia.

If you are going for a WC spot, then you have to add a 1B, OF, and DH, as well as a starting catcher. Maybe you platoon Wood and Young in CF, but that still means getting two of JD Martinez/Vlad Guerrero Jr/Luis Robert/Randy Arozarena/Christian Walker/Brent Rooker. And then you still need to address your catching position, and have a very frank conversation about whether or not CJ Abrams deserves to be on the big league roster, or if you need to replace him with Vargas for the WC run.


There's no way you fill out your needs without at least giving up Brady House. So no, we're not pushing for a WC. If we happen to get one, cool, but Rizzo isn't going to sacrifice everything he's built for it now.