Poll

Wood and Cavalli are with the Nats & we hold 3rd WC by a game on 7/23. What should the Nats do?

Tank! Sell any vet not under control after 2025. Restock. Target is a long term rebuild.
5 (18.5%)
Selective selling of FAs you can replace internally. E.g., Floro for Ribalta, Law for Ferrer, etc...
10 (37%)
Promote appropriately but otherwise hold tight and give the squad a chance.
8 (29.6%)
Try a Candelario trade in reverse to plug a weakness (1B) - say Made and Rutledge
3 (11.1%)
Go for it. Lots of CFs coming. Trade a Lile / Hassell / Vaquero and go for WC.
1 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 26

Voting closed: June 30, 2024, 12:27:53 pm

Author Topic: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?  (Read 26682 times)

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Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #225 on: June 14, 2024, 12:21:05 pm »
Just don’t see it. I believe the Cubs, Padres, DBacks and maybe the Reds will finish above .500. Add in the Braves and it seems a mission to mediocrity and a middling draft pick.  The farm system is still thin. Bad long term strategy to trade off prospects fora couple months of a player.

I don't see it happening, but I also don't see it as a bad strategy to trade away a prospect if it puts us over the edge in a tight playoff race. Fans will sign up for 2025 ticket plans in order to get 2024 playoff priority. A wild card run would be the best way to boost operating income that could be used to bump up payroll.

Offline sixthree175

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #226 on: June 14, 2024, 01:26:37 pm »
I don't see it happening, but I also don't see it as a bad strategy to trade away a prospect if it puts us over the edge in a tight playoff race. Fans will sign up for 2025 ticket plans in order to get 2024 playoff priority. A wild card run would be the best way to boost operating income that could be used to bump up payroll.
Definitely not this year.   No change of plans.

Offline imref

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #227 on: June 14, 2024, 02:37:14 pm »
Astros just released José Abreu. Could he be a Gallo replacement?

Offline varoadking

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #228 on: June 14, 2024, 04:20:07 pm »
Astros just released José Abreu. Could he be a Gallo replacement?

Depends...is he a Boras client?  If so, then you can likely count on it happening...

Online Slateman

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #229 on: June 14, 2024, 07:37:41 pm »
I have a better shot at getting a threesome with Gabbie Carter than Jose Abreu has of signing with the Nationals

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #230 on: June 14, 2024, 07:47:00 pm »
I don't see it happening, but I also don't see it as a bad strategy to trade away a prospect if it puts us over the edge in a tight playoff race. Fans will sign up for 2025 ticket plans in order to get 2024 playoff priority. A wild card run would be the best way to boost operating income that could be used to bump up payroll.

I think this team can stay within earshot of .500 standing pat and potentially dealing guys like Winker and hopefully Trevor Williams and filling those spots with Wood, Gray, and Cavalli.  They won’t make the Wild Card, but playing meaningful 2nd half games and building again on last year’s win total could be a springboard towards a WC push in 2025.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #231 on: June 14, 2024, 08:09:17 pm »
I think this team can stay within earshot of .500 standing pat and potentially dealing guys like Winker and hopefully Trevor Williams and filling those spots with Wood, Gray, and Cavalli.  They won’t make the Wild Card, but playing meaningful 2nd half games and building again on last year’s win total could be a springboard towards a WC push in 2025.
I think Nats fans assume things will work like that because they did before. But doesn’t always work that way. Reds took a step forward last year and now struggling. Marlins even more. Whereas the Rangers went from bad to a World Series.  Would still rather have the high draft pick.  Could be the last one in a while if things go well. 

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #232 on: June 14, 2024, 08:19:57 pm »
I think this team can stay within earshot of .500 standing pat and potentially dealing guys like Winker and hopefully Trevor Williams and filling those spots with Wood, Gray, and Cavalli.  They won’t make the Wild Card, but playing meaningful 2nd half games and building again on last year’s win total could be a springboard towards a WC push in 2025.

Williams is starting game one in the playoffs for us, I'd offer him a two year extension if he's willing to take the same money.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #233 on: June 14, 2024, 08:34:17 pm »
I think Nats fans assume things will work like that because they did before. But doesn’t always work that way. Reds took a step forward last year and now struggling. Marlins even more. Whereas the Rangers went from bad to a World Series.  Would still rather have the high draft pick.  Could be the last one in a while if things go well.

Not sure what you’re saying here.  Saying you rather have the high draft pick sounds like you want to tank.  I’m not advocating trading prospects to try and make a WC run this year, and I’m in favor of trading any 2025 free agents for what we can get.  Are you saying we should “tank” to the degree of not playing the best available players we have?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #234 on: June 14, 2024, 08:50:47 pm »
Not sure what you’re saying here.  Saying you rather have the high draft pick sounds like you want to tank.  I’m not advocating trading prospects to try and make a WC run this year, and I’m in favor of trading any 2025 free agents for what we can get.  Are you saying we should “tank” to the degree of not playing the best available players we have?
Yes. You need to trade Finnegan and Harvey and anyone else you can.  To me it’s better this year to finish near the bottom since we are lottery eligible in contrast to a mediocre season and a 16th draft pick.  Basically much of the team will be gone in a couple years. I’m ok with bringing Woods up soon and maybe Crews and House later. See what they can do against MLB pitching.  Don’t think they will help that much. I mentioned previously all the highlight reel stuff from Ella De La Cruz last year. But his OPS+ was 90. So below average. Has improved this year. Give them a chance this year. But don’t expect it to help get wins. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #235 on: June 14, 2024, 08:56:20 pm »
Yes. You need to trade Finnegan and Harvey and anyone else you can.  To me it’s better this year to finish near the bottom since we are lottery eligible in contrast to a mediocre season and a 16th draft pick.  Basically much of the team will be gone in a couple years. I’m ok with bringing Woods up soon and maybe Crews and House later. See what they can do against MLB pitching.  Don’t think they will help that much. I mentioned previously all the highlight reel stuff from Ella De La Cruz last year. But his OPS+ was 90. So below average. Has improved this year. Give them a chance this year. But don’t expect it to help get wins. 
so you are saying under no circumstances would you push for the wild card? Would you tank out of wild card position if the Nats were 3rd wild card one week before the trade deadline and still had some short term assets like Winker or Senzel or Harvey / Finny? would you think about trading say a Made and a Lord for bat that can play 1st?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #236 on: June 14, 2024, 09:06:19 pm »
so you are saying under no circumstances would you push for the wild card? Would you tank out of wild card position if the Nats were 3rd wild card one week before the trade deadline and still had some short term assets like Winker or Senzel or Harvey / Finny? would you think about trading say a Made and a Lord for bat that can play 1st?
Yes. And the schedule gets more difficult in August. Also there are a few teams that I think will play better. I don’t think that trade would net anything. 

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #237 on: June 14, 2024, 09:08:45 pm »
Yes. And the schedule gets more difficult in August. Also there are a few teams that I think will play better. I don’t think that trade would net anything. 
We're where the Orioles were. Stay the course.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #238 on: June 14, 2024, 09:10:31 pm »
so you are saying under no circumstances would you push for the wild card? Would you tank out of wild card position if the Nats were 3rd wild card one week before the trade deadline and still had some short term assets like Winker or Senzel or Harvey / Finny? would you think about trading say a Made and a Lord for bat that can play 1st?

Tanking for a better MLB draft position is far from a guarantee to net results.  You trade Finnegan/Harvey if you get good long-term value, sure.  I think bullpen arms are extremely volatile.  However, you don’t dump them in an effort to lose games for a pick a few spots higher.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #239 on: June 14, 2024, 09:32:01 pm »
Tanking for a better MLB draft position is far from a guarantee to net results.  You trade Finnegan/Harvey if you get good long-term value, sure.  I think bullpen arms are extremely volatile.  However, you don’t dump them in an effort to lose games for a pick a few spots higher.
No you trade them because they will not be here when the team is ready to contend in a few years.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #240 on: June 14, 2024, 09:36:44 pm »
No you trade them because they will not be here when the team is ready to contend in a few years.

It needs to be good value.  Finnegan, Harvey, and Thomas are all likely gone after 2025.  However, while probably not WS contenders next year of course, WC contenders is a reasonable goal and frankly should be the goal.  We need them for that. 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #241 on: June 14, 2024, 10:19:01 pm »
It needs to be good value.  Finnegan, Harvey, and Thomas are all likely gone after 2025.  However, while probably not WS contenders next year of course, WC contenders is a reasonable goal and frankly should be the goal.  We need them for that.
And then in 2026 you have to replace Finnegan and Harvey most likely as I can’t see the Lerners spending big bucks.  So what do you do then?  Would rather trade them this year and then you can try and find replacements.  Even some of your minor league starters. Finnegan and Harvey were castoffs.

Offline GataNats

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #242 on: June 14, 2024, 11:32:50 pm »
Finny should be given a contract extension.   Two years.   Harvey and Winkler you absolutely trade.   Not trading Williams a month ago was the height of stupidity

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #243 on: June 14, 2024, 11:56:53 pm »
Finnegan is the exact profile you dont give a contract to

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #244 on: June 15, 2024, 12:37:47 pm »
Added a poll for fun. It will run 15 days, I'll record the score, then reopen something similar if the Nats are still WC* relevant.

I tried a range of scenarios from outright tank, to still trade mode but not scuttling, to hold tight, to move minor prospects to plug a gaping hole in the lineup, to be willing to give up bigger prospects to go for the playoffs. If there's another scenario, or a way to edit the scenarios, then post it below and we can revise the poll either right away or on 6/30.

* At this point, English Natsie and awbb are probably chuckling at the "tank" reference while also talking about the WC.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #245 on: June 15, 2024, 12:53:52 pm »
LA Rice at District on Deck poses a question along these lines:
Should the Nationals Trade Kyle Finnegan?
With the deadline fast approaching and the Nationals somehow being in the thick of a wild card hunt, should Washington still look to move one of the best closers in baseball?


Quote
I am clearly biased, and one of the bigger Kyle Finnegan fans out there, but I need to make one thing clear. Kyle Finnegan should, and hopefully will, be traded. Although miracles have happened like the 2023 Diamondbacks, this Nationals team is not close to contention, with lineup woes that frustrate fans on a nightly basis. The rotation has been a pleasant surprise, but without a big bat like James Wood or Dylan Crews to team up with CJ Abrams who is hopefully getting hot again, there is no point in not getting a couple prospects for Finnegan at his peak value.

When looking at reliever trades in previous years, there is some optimism that Finnegan could net at least one prospect in an organization's top 30. On the extreme side, Aroldis Chapman was a rental last year with the Kansas City Royals and got flipped to Texas for the Royals now ace Cole Ragans, but more than likely, the Nationals will get a return similar to the Cubs-White Sox Craig Kimbrel trade in 2021, netting the Cubs the White Sox's #3 prospect in Nick Madrigal, and a reliever Codi Heuer.

Offline imref

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #246 on: June 15, 2024, 01:16:03 pm »
There is no guarantee our starters will repeat this performance next year. So IMHO, go for it now without trading any of the top 5 prospects.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #247 on: June 15, 2024, 03:48:50 pm »
There is no guarantee our starters will repeat this performance next year. So IMHO, go for it now without trading any of the top 5 prospects.
so are you the #5 answer?

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #248 on: June 15, 2024, 04:37:30 pm »
Finny should be given a contract extension.   Two years.   Harvey and Winkler you absolutely trade.   Not trading Williams a month ago was the height of stupidity

You keep saying this and you’re way off base.  Nobody wanted him a month ago.  He’s an old pitcher who has only been BAD as a starter in the past and needed to show he could sustain what he was doing longer before teams would give anything of value for him.  Also, not many teams are looking to make trades in April or May.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?
« Reply #249 on: June 15, 2024, 04:53:16 pm »
so are you the #5 answer?

That was me, but only because there wasn't a more aggressive win-now option.