2023-24 Off-Season Discussion

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rizzo basically saying he's trying to sign Jeimar tonight.

Seems to make a lot of sense to sign Candelario on a 3 year deal with him playing 3rd until House is ready and then shifting over to 1st. Couple that with a one-year DH like Hoskins. And you have a spot for Morales if he's able to make it to the majors at some point next year.

so if Candy is not the Werth signing, is he the Pudge of 2010/2011?

[UMDNats]

Juan has made it pretty clear he will sign for whoever pays him the most

He definitely won't take a discount but if we're right there with the others I think he comes home. You know Boras will go to Mark and try to get him to match/beat big-time offers.

[UMDNats]

Rizzo basically saying he's trying to sign Jeimar tonight.

Seems to make a lot of sense to sign Candelario on a 3 year deal with him playing 3rd until House is ready and then shifting over to 1st. Couple that with a one-year DH like Hoskins. And you have a spot for Morales if he's able to make it to the majors at some point next year.

I don't really love trying to double-down on a bounce-back guy you hit on. Let someone else pay him $50 million.

[Natsinpwc]

He definitely won't take a discount but if we're right there with the others I think he comes home. You know Boras will go to Mark and try to get him to match/beat big-time offers.

What indication do you have that the Nats wants to spend big?  Maybe new owners would.

[Natsinpwc]

I don't really love trying to double-down on a bounce-back guy you hit on. Let someone else pay him $50 million.

But he’s no longer a bounce back guy. Has good stats every year except 2022.  And can play 2 or more positions with a bit of power.

[UMDNats]

What indication do you have that the Nats wants to spend big?  Maybe new owners would.

I'm going off vibes. The talk that this team isn't ready for a big spend tells me they think next year is the splurge.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

sometimes I like to read articles reporters have about talks with Rizzo and Davey as much for what isn't said as what is. For example, here's Golden's latest:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12/04/nationals-winter-meetings-rizzo-martinez/

Regarding the hunt for lefty outfield power

The Nationals have five outfielders on the active roster. Lane Thomas, who led the team with 28 home runs, will be the right fielder. Martinez said Victor Robles will get another chance to nail down the center field job as long as he’s healthy — or the Nationals could turn to Jacob Young, who ended the season there. If Young doesn’t beat out Robles, he, Alex Call and Stone Garrett — once he returns from his leg injury — would be in the mix in left field. But all five are right-handed hitters.

Looks like Alu is not in the LF mix after playing the bulk of his time out there. That's a good thing. His D is strong enough to carry 3rd or probably 2nd. Add in previous comments that Garcia is not a lock for 2nd, and that look like a competition if they sign a guy like Candy.

Still on the lefty pop in the OF:

The left-handed Wood, whom MLB.com ranked baseball’s No. 7 prospect in 2023, would be a natural fit but needs to greatly cut down on his strikeouts. (Crews was ranked No. 4.)

After praising Wood's power in the rest of the article, greatly is an interesting word, so I've given it the Vega treatment.

As for 3rd, plan A sounds like an offensive upgrade, while it "possible" plan B is to let Kieboom and Alu compete until House is ready. House "probably needs more time to develop" in Golden's words. Sounds like a betting person would say some live body will be brought in even if Candy's not landed.

The other thing that comes through is that Meneses has a long leash.

Joey Meneses had 13 home runs in 154 games after posting the same total in just 56 games during his breakout 2022 season. Martinez said Meneses dealt with a knee injury for most of 2023 that could have been a factor in his reduced production. If Meneses is healthy, Martinez said he will contribute at first base and designated hitter in 2024.

Excuse-making by the manager shows a commitment, I/M/O.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm going off vibes. The talk that this team isn't ready for a big spend tells me they think next year is the splurge.

I don't know. Would you consider 2/$25 million on Joc and 3/$45 million on Candy a splurge?

If they are willing to go that far, then the lineup looks flexible with more power and base-running options until House, Wood, and Crews get their shots. Meneses, Joc, and Garrett at LF / 1st / DH, with time for Ruiz when not catching, Robles and Young in CF, Thomas in right, candy and Abrams left side, and Alu and Garcia fighting for playing time at 2nd. Figure a bench of Vargas, Alu, Young, and Adams or Millas.

[UMDNats]

A splurge is like a franchise cornerstone piece IMO. A Werth-level signing. $70 million between 2 players for 5 years is like baseline spending to me. I think they can do that and be competitive and still be financially flexible.

I also think they should approach Abrams about a long-term extension this winter but still not sure how Mark wants to operate with a possible sale. A fixed cost in Abrams could be really helpful in budgeting especially if he continues to develop.

[Mattionals]

I don't know. Would you consider 2/$25 million on Joc and 3/$45 million on Candy a splurge?

If they are willing to go that far, then the lineup looks flexible with more power and base-running options until House, Wood, and Crews get their shots. Meneses, Joc, and Garrett at LF / 1st / DH, with time for Ruiz when not catching, Robles and Young in CF, Thomas in right, candy and Abrams left side, and Alu and Garcia fighting for playing time at 2nd. Figure a bench of Vargas, Alu, Young, and Adams or Millas.

I'd rather see Candy signed and then money spent on a starter. Probably go dumpster diving/Rule 5 for a reliever. I'd be incredibly happy if the team pulls close to 80 wins in 2024. I think the afore mentioned moves would help that cause.

[imref]

based on the statements of Rizzo and Davey, we aren't going to be aggressive at all this off-season. My avatar caption will stick around for another year.

I'd rather see Candy signed and then money spent on a starter. Probably go dumpster diving/Rule 5 for a reliever. I'd be incredibly happy if the team pulls close to 80 wins in 2024. I think the afore mentioned moves would help that cause.

Agreed, but Candelario isn't a difference maker. 

I'm fine if we don't sign another starter. Gray/Gore/Irvin/Rutledge and one of Adon/Corbin/Williams until Cavalli is ready is fine for where this team is now.

[Natsinpwc]

I'm going off vibes. The talk that this team isn't ready for a big spend tells me they think next year is the splurge.

You’re living in a dream world.  They hit their title.  Keeping costs low is their priority now.

[UMDNats]

You’re living in a dream world.  They hit their title.  Keeping costs low is their priority now.

Meh, they know they can't trot out a $100 million roster every year in DC and expect people to care. Mark may not YOLO like his dad but if Soto is a FA I think we make a big run at him because it's an easy PR decision and allows Mark to take a victory lap for trading him and then signing him anyways.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'd rather see Candy signed and then money spent on a starter. Probably go dumpster diving/Rule 5 for a reliever. I'd be incredibly happy if the team pulls close to 80 wins in 2024. I think the afore mentioned moves would help that cause.

based on the statements of Rizzo and Davey, we aren't going to be aggressive at all this off-season. My avatar caption will stick around for another year.

Agreed, but Candelario isn't a difference maker. 

I'm fine if we don't sign another starter. Gray/Gore/Irvin/Rutledge and one of Adon/Corbin/Williams until Cavalli is ready is fine for where this team is now.

$12 million this offseason is the going price for an innings eater. I think they get that out of Corbin and Williams if needed, although the quality is not great. I consider Gray / Gore / Irvin adequate for next year, and hope Rutledge displaces one of the veterans from the rotation (likely Williams, who would slide nicely to the bullpen). If we could get Joc for that kind of money, I think it fills more of an opening that's unaddressed. Candy in my mind is a bit of a pipe dream. He's going to get paid. I mean, there's 4/ $70 million swags out there from MLBTR; no way we can go that far. 3/$45 is my cap. 4/$50 I'd think about with the lower AAV.

Spending about $70 million on the non-Corbin, non-Strasburg part of the roster should not be out of the question.

[blue911]

not a Red Sox board, but Papi's and Pedro's experience might make Boston attractive. It's also a perfect park for a lefty who uses the whole field. Cheap pop homers over the wall make up for those lost in right.

How do lose homers when the Pesky pole is 309? Crush fastballs to right, lift off speed/breaking crap to left. Soto’s offense is tailored made for Fenway.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

How do lose homers when the Pesky pole is 309? Crush fastballs to right, lift off speed/breaking crap to left. Soto’s offense is tailored made for Fenway.

got to dead pull down the line to take advantage of the Pesky pole. If you hit it out to Williamsburg (the bullpens), that's pretty deep.  That corner where Evans made the catch in Game 6 is pretty deep.

[Senatorswin]

When I think of how to take advantage of Fenway I think of Wade Boggs. He perfected the art of peppering the Green Monster.

[UMDNats]

How do lose homers when the Pesky pole is 309? Crush fastballs to right, lift off speed/breaking crap to left. Soto’s offense is tailored made for Fenway.

Yeah he could smash at Fenway. Boston is a pretty attractive place for him if he can learn to love Dunkin.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think we are all in agreement that left helps him a lot. I just think the idea that right is an easy homer for lefties due to the pole is not what has been the record. You have to bomb it if it isn't down the line. That said, guys like Soto, Ortiz, and Williams can bomb it. Don't forget the whole Williams for DiMaggio trade fantasy stories

[UMDNats]

To bring this back to relevant discussion, I really do think the Nats expect to bid for Soto next offseason. The rebuild has exceeded expectations so far; Abrams is a guy and Gray and Ruiz are MLB regulars, though likely not stars. Thomas is good, and Gore looks like an above-average starter. House, Wood and Crews look like future superstars at their positions and the rest of the prospect pool has worked to erase a lot of doubts (but not all of them of course) about the farm system and amateur scouting/development.

The culture, as Bruce Allen loves to say, is also damn good, and I think Mark will take on Leonsis as a minority owner with the intention of him taking over in 3-5 years. But in the meantime, a superstar returns home to anchor a lineup (AOL Ted knows better than anyone that having a HOF'er to build around makes it easier) and then a bunch of Saudi money comes in to flesh out the roster.

[Slateman]

To bring this back to relevant discussion, I really do think the Nats expect to bid for Soto next offseason. The rebuild has exceeded expectations so far; Abrams is a guy and Gray and Ruiz are MLB regulars, though likely not stars. Thomas is good, and Gore looks like an above-average starter. House, Wood and Crews look like future superstars at their positions and the rest of the prospect pool has worked to erase a lot of doubts (but not all of them of course) about the farm system and amateur scouting/development.

The culture, as Bruce Allen loves to say, is also damn good, and I think Mark will take on Leonsis as a minority owner with the intention of him taking over in 3-5 years. But in the meantime, a superstar returns home to anchor a lineup (AOL Ted knows better than anyone that having a HOF'er to build around makes it easier) and then a bunch of Saudi money comes in to flesh out the roster.

I see you and zdk have similar vices

[IanRubbish]

Abrams is a guy and Gray and Ruiz are MLB regulars, though likely not stars.

Agree about Abrams and Gray, but Ruiz is a problem.  He threw out just 7% of stealing attempts, one of the worst in the league.  It also led teams to run a lot on him, with 86 steal attempts of 2B while he was catching, most in MLB.  Riley Adams was slightly better.   This put a lot of additional pressure on the pitching staff and contributed to being 2nd worst in the NL for runs given up.  I get the "play the contract" philosophy that's at work here, but Keibert is a major liability with the new rules. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's funny, but Keibert had a good record in terms of pickoffs and throwing guys out in 2022. 20 thrown out in 71 attempts is 28%. That's not necessarily a guy you'd think could be abused. Last year, everything fell apart defensively. Even his framing, which was already bad, got worse. He seems diligent and a guy who works on stuff, so I have some hope some drills may help him.

HE should have close to average or better offensive numbers, so he's a big asset if he's playable at catcher. He might even be better than that if the improvement he showed in the second half sticks.  More pull, good launch angle, more stuff in the air (Liners and flies), still a low K%.

[Slateman]

https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1732490112787689510

Juan Yepez, 1B, agrees to deal with Nats. Minor league deal.

LET'S GOOOOO

[Natsinpwc]

https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1732490112787689510

LET'S GOOOOO

Worth a chance.  Didn’t hit much this year in Triple A.  I’m sure Coles can fix him!