2023-24 Off-Season Discussion

[JCA-CrystalCity]

First base first: Nats' top priority at Winter Meetings

Cammerato:

The Nationals have an internal option in Meneses. He made 32 starts at first base in 2022 before shifting to the everyday DH role last season. Meneses enjoys the in-game rhythm that comes with playing in the field. His plate production dipped in '23 following a breakout rookie performance (.722 OPS and 13 home runs in 154 games, compared to .930 OPS and 13 home runs in 56 games), but there is a possibility those numbers could be boosted by the consistency of the first-base role. In that case, the Nats’ need would become finding a new designated hitter. 

There also are nearly 20 first basemen currently in the free-agent market: Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Brandon Belt, Donovan Solano, Garrett Cooper, Ji Man Choi, C.J. Cron, Mike Ford, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, Rowdy Tellez, Jake Lamb, Luke Voit, Juan Yepez, Jesús Aguilar, Joey Votto and Yuli Gurriel.

If they think they have the money to pay for Hoskins, great, but Candelario for under 3 years / $45 million (or 4 /$50 million) coupled with Yepez might be a nicer way to go. If it were Hoskins but not Candy, then I guess it's Kieboom or Alu to start the year, with a hope that House is ready if they can't do the job.

Assuming TalkNats and Cammerato are right, I'm starting to think they believe Garrett will be ready to start the season in the majors.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Talknats:

Sounds like classic float some rumors and then when none are signed they say we tried. 

not really a great year for bats. OTOH, they should not be getting $10+ million except for the top of the market.

[aspenbubba]

First base first: Nats' top priority at Winter Meetings

Cammerato:
If they think they have the money to pay for Hoskins, great, but Candelario for under 3 years / $45 million (or 4 /$50 million) coupled with Yepez might be a nicer way to go. If it were Hoskins but not Candy, then I guess it's Kieboom or Alu to start the year, with a hope that House is ready if they can't do the job.

Assuming TalkNats and Cammerato are right, I'm starting to think they believe Garrett will be ready to start the season in the majors.

KieBUST and Alu will never do the job even short term. I like Candy but not at the price and years that are being quoted. He was really good for us and had a hit start in Chi until he got hurt. He came back and was very average. I just don’t think he should be signed for more than 2 years.

[Mattionals]

KieBUST and Alu will never do the job even short term. I like Candy but not at the price and years that are being quoted. He was really good for us and had a hit start in Chi until he got hurt. He came back and was very average. I just don’t think he should be signed for more than 2 years.

I'm fine with Candy hoping that House can be called up by middle of 2025 to take over 3B. That would slide Candy over to 1B where I think he will do fine. Also hopeful that Morales can stick at 1B ton replace Candy. Can always move on from Meneses at DH and put Candy there too.

[Slateman]

First base first: Nats' top priority at Winter Meetings

Cammerato:
If they think they have the money to pay for Hoskins, great, but Candelario for under 3 years / $45 million (or 4 /$50 million) coupled with Yepez might be a nicer way to go. If it were Hoskins but not Candy, then I guess it's Kieboom or Alu to start the year, with a hope that House is ready if they can't do the job.

Assuming TalkNats and Cammerato are right, I'm starting to think they believe Garrett will be ready to start the season in the majors.

Cody Bellinger can play first base

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Cody Bellinger can play first base

and center

[Slateman]

and center

At the same time

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Implicit in the talknats post is that Rizzo is looking to sign a guy who will be earning $15-20 million AAV for somewhere between 1 and 3 years.

I don't see the purpose of signing Hoskins for 1 year, unless you plan on flipping him to a contender. You could tell him and his agent that he'd be sure to be traded at the deadline and not face a QO if he's doing well. Maybe you even offer 2 years, with a player opt out, just as additional assurance to him in case he doesn't perform well. More or less, a generous pillow arrangement.

Soler I've liked, think he could even give you a bit of outfield time. Candy I've already said I'd be comfortable up to about $15 million AAV for 3 years.

[Slateman]

Implicit in the talknats post is that Rizzo is looking to sign a guy who will be earning $15-20 million AAV for somewhere between 1 and 3 years.

I don't see the purpose of signing Hoskins for 1 year, unless you plan on flipping him to a contender. You could tell him and his agent that he'd be sure to be traded at the deadline and not face a QO if he's doing well. Maybe you even offer 2 years, with a player opt out, just as additional assurance to him in case he doesn't perform well. More or less, a generous pillow arrangement.

Soler I've liked, think he could even give you a bit of outfield time. Candy I've already said I'd be comfortable up to about $15 million AAV for 3 years.

Hoskins will take the most money on a one year deal. He can pick where he wants next offseason

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Hoskins will take the most money on a one year deal. He can pick where he wants next offseason

he's got to worry about a qo if he plays well. If the offers are 1 year,$18 million, then I could see him taking a slightly lower offer with a bit better protection and flexibility.  By slightly, 1 year $16 million with a player option for a second year.

[welch]

31 - 7 already, in 2nd quarter. But Chase Young is so much better than Tua?

[Natsinpwc]

Also Hoskins is a DH who can occasionally play 1B without making a mistake.  Someone like Candy gives you much more flexibility.  Also not as big hot and cold streaks.

[imref]

Janes has a new article up on the state of the Nats and their approach heading this off-season. Notably:

The lack of spending on the roster as well as the purge of front-office operatives could reasonably be interpreted as signs that the Lerner family wants to pare down spending to make the franchise more appealing to a potential buyer — or at least make it cheaper to operate while it considers its options. But multiple people with direct knowledge of the organization’s spending decisions suggested that when it comes to the roster, a potential sale is not the reason for the stinginess.

Instead, the Nationals’ unwillingness to bid on top-dollar free agents this offseason is largely because they believe they are not one or two stars away from contention — at least not yet. They will be interested in bolstering their starting pitching depth around a young core. They might pursue a first baseman and an outfielder. They are not, Rizzo said at the general managers meetings in November, at the point of seeking to bring in an established star to help turn the team into a winner, as they did with Jayson Werth ahead of the 2011 season.

“Financially, that doesn’t come into play. I think it’s, ‘When are you ready to strike, and what player is that guy?’ ” Rizzo said. “Those are the two questions you have to answer. Is this the right year — meaning is the right guy there who puts you over the top?”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12/03/nats-sale-update-winter-meetings/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Janes has a new article up on the state of the Nats and their approach heading this off-season. Notably:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12/03/nats-sale-update-winter-meetings/

sounds like they think the post 2023 talent level is more like 2009 than 2010. After 2010 was the Werth addition. There's no Stras and JZ in the majors yet. There's Crews in the wings, but he's not Harper level.

[imref]

sounds like they think the post 2023 talent level is more like 2009 than 2010. After 2010 was the Werth addition. There's no Stras and JZ in the majors yet. There's Crews in the wings, but he's not Harper level.

later in the article she notes that the team felt they needed to sign Werth to change the culture but that's not a need right now.

[Natsinpwc]

later in the article she notes that the team felt they needed to sign Werth to change the culture but that's not a need right now.

LOL.  They have a losing culture now; have not had a wining season in five years.  This is all just BS because they know many fans will be unhappy with no major acquisitions.  They should just be honest and go full in on tanking for 2024. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

LOL.  They have a losing culture now; have not had a wining season in five years.  This is all just BS because they know many fans will be unhappy with no major acquisitions.  They should just be honest and go full in on tanking for 2024. 

Stone Garrett will stare at the culture and keep it in line, or else. Culture will not give Stone any lip.

[Senatorswin]

So the value in a hitter in the MLB is largely based on how many runs can he help his team score, mostly indicated by how many RBI's did he have. One would assume Rhys Hopkins playing with the Phillies from 2017 to 2022 would have many more opportunities to bat in runs than a Joey Meneses had on the run challenged Nats last year. In those six years Rhys played for the Phillies he batted in more runs than Joey did last year 1 time. As Janes pointed out in her article Joey has hit better in the past when he plays in the field as opposed to DH.

So why go get a Hoskins who in more favorable situations was less productive than somebody who was in a less favorable situation and who you already have?

[Natsinpwc]

The people who study the numbers have shown that RBIs are irrelevant to assessing player value. Hoskins is a more productive hitter than Meneses. But much more expensive.  And a poor 1B.

https://library.fangraphs.com/stats-to-avoid-runs-batted-in-rbi/#

[Slateman]

I think you have to look at Hoskins as at least a part time DH due to his ACL repair. Which is totally fine as we could play Meneses at first base.

Hoskins is likely going to be better than anyone else we have available.

[Senatorswin]

The people who study the numbers have shown that RBIs are irrelevant to assessing player value. Hoskins is a more productive hitter than Meneses. But much more expensive.  And a poor 1B.

https://library.fangraphs.com/stats-to-avoid-runs-batted-in-rbi/#

Actually this article talks about one of the major points I was making. It talks about RBI's are hard to evaluate a hitters performance because one hitter might have more opportunities than another and thus more RBI's even though he wasn't as affective in situations with RISP. I don't have the numbers but I assume each year over the six years Hoskins was with Philly, he had many more opportunities than Joey had last year with the woeful Nats.

The other thing is the eye test. I know last year when there were big situations in games, if Dominic Smith came up I had much less confidence the Nats would score as opposed to Joey.

The article also talks about how you can't rely on a players performance from year-to-year. While this may be true in a lot of situations, over six years of batting in the middle of the order on those Philly teams, he should of been able to get more RBI's than Joey more than once. It shows a consistent lack of his ability to be a clutch hitter. Also, in those years I never minded Rhys coming up in big situations because he was so inconsistent. Again, the eye test.

[Natsinpwc]

Actually this article talks about one of the major points I was making. It talks about RBI's are hard to evaluate a hitters performance because one hitter might have more opportunities than another and thus more RBI's even though he wasn't as affective in situations with RISP. I don't have the numbers but I assume each year over the six years Hoskins was with Philly, he had many more opportunities than Joey had last year with the woeful Nats.

The other thing is the eye test. I know last year when there were big situations in games, if Dominic Smith came up I had much less confidence the Nats would score as opposed to Joey.

The article also talks about how you can't rely on a players performance from year-to-year. While this may be true in a lot of situations, over six years of batting in the middle of the order on those Philly teams, he should of been able to get more RBI's than Joey more than once. It shows a consistent lack of his ability to be a clutch hitter. Also, in those years I never minded Rhys coming up in big situations because he was so inconsistent. Again, the eye test.

I think you are ignoring the conclusions of the article.  Hoskins is a career OPS+ of 125.  Meneses is 116 but that was largely driven by 2022. He was 99 this year which means an average MLB hitter. His production with runners on base is random variance and won’t last.  He hits with less power and gets on base less than Hoskins. So if befall he produces fewer runs. Also most of those Phillies teams he played for were average or worse at scoring runs. It’s not like he had great hitters getting on base ahead of him.  RBIs are random noise.

[Senatorswin]

I think you are ignoring the conclusions of the article.  Hoskins is a career OPS+ of 125.  Meneses is 116 but that was largely driven by 2022. He was 99 this year which means an average MLB hitter. His production with runners on base is random variance and won’t last.  He hits with less power and gets on base less than Hoskins. So if befall he produces fewer runs. Also most of those Phillies teams he played for were average or worse at scoring runs. It’s not like he had great hitters getting on base ahead of him.  RBIs are random noise.

One thing I kept saying Rhys 6 years but 2020 shouldn't count because of the amount of games so it's based on 5 years. Whether Joey maintains the ability to hit with RISP in the coming years as he did last year remains to be seen. But I still maintain if the goal is to produce runs Hoskins has shown he's not as good at it as Joey was last year. As far as the Philly teams not being great run producers those years Rhys played, three of those 5 years they scored more than the Nats did last year. Two of those years they scored slightly less (they would have scored more if Rhys hit better with RISP lol).

In the conclusion section of the article it talks about the most important reason why RBI's aren't a good measure of a players value is the opportunities could be different. That's my point why Joey last year was better than Rhys over Rhy's consistent year-to year performance.

Also, if Joey gets the opportunity to play first there's nothing to say he won't hit home runs at the same pace he did in 2022. Also, after a year off how will Rhys do?

[nobleisthyname]

I think it's a bit wishful thinking to think taking Meneses out of the DH spot will make him hit like 2022 again. Also no reason to assume his success with RISP is sustainable in a way that it isn't for the vast majority of other players.

Of course if the goal is to completely tank next season then why not make that bet? Worst case scenario is you lose more games which would be the goal anyway.

[Natsinpwc]

Bottom line is no experts or teams use RBIs or RISP to assess players.

Here is fangraphs offensive value numbers they use of WAR calculations for Hoskins by year.

3017 (part year) 17.6
2018. 24.9
2019. 8.5
2020 (short season): 8.8
202. 14.0
2022. 14.1

And then Joey:
2022 (part year). 12.9
2023.  Minus 7.8.

Overall he was a negative 0.2 WAR player in 2023.  He’s one of the main reasons the team was losing.

Yes might as well keep him in the lineup and tank again this season.