Follow the Prospects: Elijah Green, OF

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Anybody else still intrigued by the potential of Elijah Green? He had a big homer tonight and notched steal #40. He’s only 20, so there’s still a lot of room for growth/improvement. Hopefully he can cut down on the k’s and move up the ranks next season.

Intrigued in a "I bought a megamillions ticket because the pot is so darn high" kind of way. I think you advance him if he drops his  K% below 40% at any level for half a season.

[imref]

HR yesterday, 4 SBs in the two playoff games.

[Natsinpwc]

HR yesterday, 4 SBs in the two playoff games.

[imref]

Since July 1: 201 PAs: .260 / .338 / .463 (.801 OPS). 7 HRs, 22 SBs, 20 BBs, 84 Ks

Still striking out way way too much, but he's shown a ton of improvement. I look forward to seeing what he can do next year starting at A+ (reminder that he's still 20). He needed to take a step forward this year and he's done it.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/09/17/elijah-green-cristhian-vaquero-nationals-prospects/

Golden on Green's and Vaquero's seasons.

Green is working with a mental skills coach and has made small tweaks at the plate. His swing created issues for him, so this year he shifted his hands — from up behind his head to out in front of his body — to create a quicker path to the ball. And he’s focusing on his stance, working to make sure he’s not opening up too early and missing balls on the outer portion of the plate.
...
In July and August, Green hit .266 with a .795 OPS, 15 extra-base hits (including five homers) and 20 walks — but he still struck out 40.3 percent of the time. It will be hard for him to thrive at higher minor league levels unless he can cut his strikeout rate.

[nobleisthyname]

Age: 20
Team rank: 21
Current level: A

September recap

PA

|

AVG

|

OBP

|

SLG

|

HR

|

SB

|

K%

|

BB%

|

ISO

|

OPS

|

wRC+

17

|

.176

|

.176

|

.471

|

1

|

1

|

64.7%

|

0.0%

|

.294

|

.647

|

80

Season recap
Games played at position
CF: 100
DH: 6

PA

|

AVG

|

OBP

|

SLG

|

HR

|

SB

|

K%

|

BB%

|

ISO

|

OPS

|

wRC+

468

|

.208

|

.293

|

.355

|

13

|

39

|

44.0%

|

9.8%

|

.147

|

.648

|

94

[imref]

Dykstra on Green falling to #25 on our top 30:

Fall: Elijah Green, OF (2024: 6 | 2025: 25)
The 2022 fifth overall pick continues to ooze tools, as a plus-plus runner who makes incredibly loud contact and could play center field in the Majors right now. But he’s coming off a second consecutive season in which he struck out more than 40 percent of the time at Single-A -- a number that wouldn’t be viable at any level. Green is still just 21 years old, but the longer he goes with supremely subpar contact numbers, the more tenuous his Top 30 spot becomes.

[welch]

Green with a booming double to the warning track, and then a monster homer over the fence. Color guy (Dykstra?) from MLB Pipeline seems breathless with his "wow"s. Green to Wilmington, he says, and if Green lowers his strikeouts to 30-35% he will be a monster.

And he draws a walk. Maybe for some patience? And a batting eye?

[Smithian]

His July-August run merits him being paid some attention early this year. But to keep attention he has to be in Wilmington and has to have a strong OBP. Otherwise, time for some college football programs to start sliding into his DMs.

[nobleisthyname]

Even during his good stretch last year he was still striking out almost 40% of the time in low-A ball. I just don't see how that's at all salvageable. Him making it to the majors at this point would be literally unprecedented. Sucks because he's clearly extremely talented in every other facet of the game.

[Slateman]

Yep. Whichever scout did the legwork on him should be fired.

[Natsinpwc]

Green with a booming double to the warning track, and then a monster homer over the fence. Color guy (Dykstra?) from MLB Pipeline seems breathless with his "wow"s. Green to Wilmington, he says, and if Green lowers his strikeouts to 30-35% he will be a monster.

And he draws a walk. Maybe for some patience? And a batting eye?

Would be nice if he can figure it out but seems unlikely. 

[imref]

Would be nice if he can figure it out but seems unlikely. 

he was pretty good toward the end of last year iirc.

[Smithian]

Yep. Whichever scout did the legwork on him should be fired.

Disagree. We know he was high ceiling, very low floor. You were first reply in thread saying as much.

Baseball drafts are such a crapshoot that I’m fine with them picking the guy with super high ceiling. As much as I expect Seaver King to make the majors, I don’t think he’ll be a franchise changer. Elijah Green’s hope was he’d be able to make contact and then you have a five tool star. It hasn’t worked out, maybe won’t ever. There’s a reason he didn’t go top three even with the ceiling.

[rileyn]

Poll: Worst top draft pick of last couple years?

Nats - Elijah Green?
Wiz - Johnny Davis?
SKins - Emmanuel Forbes?

[Kevrock]

This seems like a pretty critical year in his development.

[Smithian]

Poll: Worst top draft pick of last couple years?

Nats - Elijah Green?
Wiz - Johnny Davis?
SKins - Emmanuel Forbes?

Forbes. The expectation of an NFL first rounder are massively different than NBA or MLB.

[imref]

If you scroll up at past reports, he was much improved after July 1st but had an awful September.

This seems like a pretty critical year in his development.

Yep.  Reminder that he just turned 21 in December.

[welch]

Green would be found money. We don't expect him to do much, but, wow!

[imref]

Starting at A+

[IanRubbish]

He's got one year left after this one of full team control.  If he doesn't progress, probably not a Rule 5 pick in '27, but at 21 yo in High A this is his year.  But have to wonder if he'd do better with an org that knows how to develop patient hitters - like former Nats hitting coach Kevin Long and the Phillies.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He's got one year left after this one of full team control.  If he doesn't progress, probably not a Rule 5 pick in '27, but at 21 yo in High A this is his year.  But have to wonder if he'd do better with an org that knows how to develop patient hitters - like former Nats hitting coach Kevin Long and the Phillies.

Ideal path would be for him to pound like he did 2nd half of last year now that he's in A+ and earn a mid-year bump up to AA (and continue to hit). It's hard to believe, but we look at him and say, "if only he could keep his Ks to 30% at every level."

[Elvir Ovcina]

Ideal path would be for him to pound like he did 2nd half of last year now that he's in A+ and earn a mid-year bump up to AA (and continue to hit). It's hard to believe, but we look at him and say, "if only he could keep his Ks to 30% at every level."

I want to believe, but he's Wily Mo Pena but worse.  He's going to keep getting bigger and won't stay in center, and he still won't be able to hit anything but mistakes.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I want to believe, but he's Wily Mo Pena but worse.  He's going to keep getting bigger and won't stay in center, and he still won't be able to hit anything but mistakes.

so far, his D is better than Wily Mo.

[Elvir Ovcina]

so far, his D is better than Wily Mo.

Wily Mo played mostly CF in the minors.  He was smaller than Green back then.