Strasburg 2022

[Mattionals]

He is the Nats version of David Wright. He is going to stay on the roster and be permanently on the 60-day, the owners will recoup the insurance money, but ultimately his AAV still counts towards the luxury tax. Maybe, just maybe, one day he decides that he isn't going to be able to play anymore (I mean, he is about to be 34) and he hangs it up. I don't see him completely giving up this year or next, but maybe in his age 36 season. Anyway you look at it, I think he is going to work out a deal with this ownership or next ownership in getting his money as an "Assistant to the Front Office" and he medically retires from his pitching contract.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If its clearly chronic, and the surgeries didnt fix it, then whats the plan here? He clearly cant pitch anymore. Do you just always give him the number 5 spot in the rotation and use your depth when he inevitably goes down?

yes?  I think 20-25 starts of an ace and 10-15 starts of a replacement level pitchers still comes out better than average.  It does test your depth, but this team seems to have a number of marginal starting candidates, so that can be a tryout position.   

[welch]

My hunch, and a sad one: Strassburg goes to Spring Training but cannot pitch. He retires on the insurance he has against injury. Nats throw a Stephen Strasburg Farewell on Opening Day.

[Smithian]

yes?  I think 20-25 starts of an ace and 10-15 starts of a replacement level pitchers still comes out better than average.  It does test your depth, but this team seems to have a number of marginal starting candidates, so that can be a tryout position.   

Over how many years do you think he'll have those 30-40 starts? Maybe the next three seasons combined. Maybe over the entirety of his contract.

The disaster level of this contract isn't even comparable to any current contract. Rendon is getting talk about being a contract bust, but he at least has tallied up 3 WAR in three abbreviated seasons.

[Slateman]

yes?  I think 20-25 starts of an ace and 10-15 starts of a replacement level pitchers still comes out better than average.  It does test your depth, but this team seems to have a number of marginal starting candidates, so that can be a tryout position.   

Hold up

I dont think Strasburg is an ace anymore. And I dont think 20-25 starts is realistic. In the last 3 years, Strasburg has made 8 starts. I think getting 10 starts a year is a fairly unrealistic expectation at this point.

[Slateman]

My hunch, and a sad one: Strassburg goes to Spring Training but cannot pitch. He retires on the insurance he has against injury. Nats throw a Stephen Strasburg Farewell on Opening Day.

If Strasburg retires, he gets the full contract

[UMDNats]

I can't see Strasburg making more than 5 or so starts, total, ever again.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Hold up

I dont think Strasburg is an ace anymore. And I dont think 20-25 starts is realistic. In the last 3 years, Strasburg has made 8 starts. I think getting 10 starts a year is a fairly unrealistic expectation at this point.

I was assuming he could get back to 2016-17 level of starting about 2/3 of the year. That seemed to be about when the nerve impingements started.  I agree that may be too optimistic, so if he can't do that, then the calculus of 20-25 Stras starts and 10-15 Adon/Tetrault starts changes.  If he can't hit 20 starts a year, then it really does get to be disruptive. 

[Slateman]

I was assuming he could get back to 2016-17 level of starting about 2/3 of the year. That seemed to be about when the nerve impingements started.  I agree that may be too optimistic, so if he can't do that, then the calculus of 20-25 Stras starts and 10-15 Adon/Tetrault starts changes.  If he can't hit 20 starts a year, then it really does get to be disruptive. 

Why are you assuming that? If the nerve issues are chronic, they arent going to get magically better.

There is no way Strasburg ever makes 20 starts in a season ever again

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Why are you assuming that? If the nerve issues are chronic, they arent going to get magically better.

There is no way Strasburg ever makes 20 starts in a season ever again

I was basing this off of his injury history prior to 2021.  It seemed he's been dealing with impingements for 5 years, maybe more.  I'm assuming he could get back to wear he could manage things as in the past.  OF course, it's more likely that the damage is not fixed by the last surgery and he's permanently impaired.  Just from the description in the article you quoted, it seemed like if he doesn't need more surgery, maybe he's at a better level than before surgery.

[Section214]

If Strasburg retires, he gets the full contract

Can you elaborate on this? If he medically retires tomorrow, he still gets paid the entire contract? I am of the belief he will never pitch again, so I am assuming he will retire at some point in his contract, but he gets it all?

[Natsinpwc]

He’s toast. ‘Twas a fun run Stephen.

[Natsinpwc]

I don’t believe that MLB has long term injury relief for teams. I believe that the NHL has something like that?

[Natsinpwc]

Can you elaborate on this? If he medically retires tomorrow, he still gets paid the entire contract? I am of the belief he will never pitch again, so I am assuming he will retire at some point in his contract, but he gets it all?

I believe MLB contracts are totally guaranteed. No reason for him to retire and walk away. He can rehab endlessly.  Like a free gym membership.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I believe MLB contracts are totally guaranteed. No reason for him to retire and walk away. He can rehab endlessly.  Like a free gym membership.

I think this was sort of what Jacoby Ellsbury did.  He had to not retire to get paid.

Gil Meche apparently walked away and retired years ago rather than get surgery adn was not paid, but I'm not sure if the rule has been changed. I suppose if it were an inoperable medical condition, it'd take things out of the refusal of surgery scenario.

[catocony]

Can you elaborate on this? If he medically retires tomorrow, he still gets paid the entire contract? I am of the belief he will never pitch again, so I am assuming he will retire at some point in his contract, but he gets it all?

MLB contracts are fully guaranteed as long as the player doesn't just up and retire on his own.  As already stated, he may be on the 60-day DL for the next 4.5 seasons, but he'll get every penny of the contract even if he never pitches again.

Also, didn't Kolko or someone report that his contract is not insured, as in even if he never pitches again due to medical issues the Nats are 100% on the hook for all of it? 

[Section214]

MLB contracts are fully guaranteed as long as the player doesn't just up and retire on his own.  As already stated, he may be on the 60-day DL for the next 4.5 seasons, but he'll get every penny of the contract even if he never pitches again.

Okay yeah, that's what I thought. I didn't think he could just retire and still get paid or else I feel like more guys would just retire whenever they wanted to. I do understand that as long as he "stays on the DL", he's getting paid. Brutal.

[catocony]

Put another way, by October this year he'll have received $105 million for his 8 starts the last three seasons (minus whatever from the league-wide across the board reductions for COVID 2020 season).  He'll receive $140 million for 2023-2026 and IMHO, will probably never pitch again.  $245 million for 8 starts.

Will Harris has a $24 million burn for his 3 seasons here and I assume he won't pitch for the Nats again.  But that's chump change compared to Strasburg.

Corbin at least starts every 5th game.  Compared to Strasburg he's great value.

[nfotiu]

Fine, tell him he either gets this https://consultqd.clevelandclinic.org/bionic-arms-neurorobotic-sensory-motor-fusion-restores-natural-behaviors/ or retires.

I don't really have a problem with guys getting paid their contract if they have a career ending injury doing their job.   It would be crappy if they didn't.   It does kind of suck that Boras got the Nats to agree to contracts with options that put all the risk on the Nats.

[Mattionals]

I'm pretty sure all contracts are insured, i.e. David Wright and the Mets. The thing is, in order to get insurance to pay, there needs to be a medical diagnosis that says he can't pitch/play. Pretty sure Strasburg has that right now.

IIRC, Ellsbury just sucked and had no injury, so he just collected payment but didn't play.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'm pretty sure all contracts are insured, i.e. David Wright and the Mets. The thing is, in order to get insurance to pay, there needs to be a medical diagnosis that says he can't pitch/play. Pretty sure Strasburg has that right now.

IIRC, Ellsbury just sucked and had no injury, so he just collected payment but didn't play.

They aren't insured automatically (the NHL and NBA do have such policies and they're mandatory for the biggest contracts).  The teams need to affirmatively purchase insurance for individual contracts, and I would think insuring Strasburg's fresh contract after 2019 would have been prohibitively expensive given his injury history and age. I'd be pretty surprised if they had insurance that would cover more than a relatively small slice of his contract.

[Slateman]

Nats have, historically, not insured contracts

[BigMeech]

It's really hard to get mad at this contract (and at Strasburg himself) considering that it seems he gave up the rest of his career to will the Nationals to a World Series.  If his last great moment is Game 6 and winning the World Series MVP, then so be it.  He did well and, at least in the 2019 postseason, became the phenom he was billed to be.  Tip of the cap to him.  Should get a statue at Nationals Park imo.

[Slateman]

Uh .... its easy to get mad because it was a massive overpay at the time. Him being injured was entirely predictable. The Lerners made like the 2007 Yankees and just negotiated against themselves.

Nats paid him over 140 million for the 2019 WS. Thats more than enough money. Stras needs to face the music, admit his body simply won't let him compete anymore, put in for medical retirement, and work out a deal with new ownership to defer payments in the contract.

[Natsinpwc]

Uh .... its easy to get mad because it was a massive overpay at the time. Him being injured was entirely predictable. The Lerners made like the 2007 Yankees and just negotiated against themselves.

Nats paid him over 140 million for the 2019 WS. Thats more than enough money. Stras needs to face the music, admit his body simply won't let him compete anymore, put in for medical retirement, and work out a deal with new ownership to defer payments in the contract.

Would you do that in his position? Honest answer please. I think many of us might say we would but would continue to get the pay.