Author Topic: Strasburg 2022  (Read 5749 times)

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Offline imref

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #75: June 10, 2022, 02:15:42 PM »
Next start is likely Tuesday

Offline hotshot

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #76: June 10, 2022, 04:33:19 PM »
History is a bad start often precipitated Stras going on the IL. Almost like an excuse for the poor outing. After good games, he was invariably fine. We shall see.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #77: June 10, 2022, 04:54:50 PM »
History is a bad start often precipitated Stras going on the IL. Almost like an excuse for the poor outing. After good games, he was invariably fine. We shall see.
He said after the game that he felt fine physically. 

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #78: June 10, 2022, 05:36:09 PM »
What is the track record for a 33 year old making a successful return after sitting out two years with injuries?


Offline English Natsie

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #79: June 10, 2022, 06:26:53 PM »

Mark Zuckerman
@MarkZuckerman


Surely, the positive spin machine that is 'Nationals News' wouldn't be doing some damage limitation, after the event, would they?... ;)

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #80: June 10, 2022, 06:43:42 PM »
Surely, the positive spin machine that is 'Nationals News' wouldn't be doing some damage limitation, after the event, would they?... ;)
Never. Just the facts.

Offline CowherPower

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #81: June 10, 2022, 07:53:22 PM »
Next start is likely Tuesday

Hope so - it wasn't one of my regular games in my group so I picked up extra tickets.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #82: June 10, 2022, 09:08:57 PM »
Surely, the positive spin machine that is 'Nationals News' wouldn't be doing some damage limitation, after the event, would they?... ;)
Argue the content, don’t disparage the writer. I don’t have much hope for stras becoming a good pitcher again, but it’s not Davey’s fault.  Zuckermans tweet was perfectly fine and I’ve had no problem with him as a beat writer

Offline English Natsie

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #83: June 11, 2022, 11:09:13 AM »
Argue the content, don’t disparage the writer. I don’t have much hope for stras becoming a good pitcher again, but it’s not Davey’s fault.  Zuckermans tweet was perfectly fine and I’ve had no problem with him as a beat writer

I thought my post was clearly about 'Nationals News' as an entity, but obviously not. I just think that both player and manager would have earned more respect if they'd just fronted-up and said 'OK - we misjudged that, we'll re-evaluate', rather than trying to claim that over-stressing our star pitcher was all expected and planned for. In my book, that would be one strange plan.'Martinez had emphasized the Nationals wanted Strasburg to be full-go when he returned' - not only was that clearly not the case, but DM even misjudged against a benchmark of his own choosing, which just compounds the error.

Equally,  “The funny thing is, he didn’t use it (changeup) the first inning and then he didn’t use it again the fifth inning. He understands that he’s got to throw that. … ' When did he 'understand' that?  If at the mound, why didn't he do it - or worse, did he understand but still, regardless of the consequences, still actively chose not to throw it? If they mean 'he understands' as in 'because we've now told him' then would it not be of concern that an experienced pitcher didn't see it, with an outcome we all know.

Online Slateman

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #84: June 11, 2022, 11:19:47 AM »
His fastball has never had great shape or movement, but he threw 95, so it didnt matter as much.

If he's going to be even remotely effective, he's going to have to re-develope his fastball.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #85: June 11, 2022, 11:57:28 AM »
His fastball has never had great shape or movement, but he threw 95, so it didnt matter as much.

If he's going to be even remotely effective, he's going to have to re-develope his fastball.
I don't know what Brooks is showing, but on FG, it looks like he was throwing 2 fastballs, a 4 seam and a sinker, as well as a curve and a change.  All about 25% of the time.  The sinker is the newest to be emphasized.   From 2013 -2017 he didn't throw it more than 3.5% of the time, which may just be misclassification.   2019 is when the sinker and curve % shot up to nearly half his pitches.

I'll guess he's seeing some of the same things Slate is seeing.  With the velocity drop, his 4 seam can more or less be a variety / different look, while the sinker is the fastball with some movement. identical velocity on the fastballs. Sinker wasn't working his first start, but was more effective than his old fastball in 2019 (and the short sample in 2021). 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/stephen-strasburg/10131/stats?position=P

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #86: June 11, 2022, 12:18:20 PM »
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=6/9/2022&gamePk=661149&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=illustrator#661149

Looking at this, 5 out of the 16 balls in play were hard hit, with one barrel (1 HR). Looks like the fastball was pretty good around the edges of the zone, until it wasn't (the ball Jesus Sanchez crushed).  Sinkers low were being hit. Was not getting chases on the elevated fastballs, which were just not near the strike zone. Was able to spot the ball on the edges and get calls and swings, and his changeup worked low, too. 

Online Slateman

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #87: June 11, 2022, 12:24:59 PM »
The spin on both his fastballs is about 200 rpm less than it was in 2019. Pretty significant difference.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #88: June 11, 2022, 01:58:50 PM »
The spin on both his fastballs is about 200 rpm less than it was in 2019. Pretty significant difference.
is that a velocity issue, or maybe an issue of ball, motion, or grip?  Suppose that's part of trying to bring back the windup?  In his trouble innings, he had to go back to the stretch, so maybe that's why the spin was off?

Online Slateman

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #89: June 11, 2022, 02:11:18 PM »
is that a velocity issue, or maybe an issue of ball, motion, or grip?  Suppose that's part of trying to bring back the windup?  In his trouble innings, he had to go back to the stretch, so maybe that's why the spin was off?
Spin and velo are sometimes related. Maybe a bit of both. But you can generate plenty of spin with a low velo fastball (Nestor Cortes).

I imagine he'll get some of it back, but i think he needs to develop something other than a four seamer and whatever that two seamer/sinker is. He isnt going to pump 95+ anymore, and that 2 seamer/sinker simply doesnt have enough movement.

This is where I really feel like the analytics and coaching staffs are failing. Strasburg and Gray need to overhaul their 4 seamers, and work in/develop a secondary fastball (sinker, cutter, 2 seamer).

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #90: June 11, 2022, 04:13:40 PM »
Spin and velo are sometimes related. Maybe a bit of both. But you can generate plenty of spin with a low velo fastball (Nestor Cortes).

I imagine he'll get some of it back, but i think he needs to develop something other than a four seamer and whatever that two seamer/sinker is. He isnt going to pump 95+ anymore, and that 2 seamer/sinker simply doesnt have enough movement.

This is where I really feel like the analytics and coaching staffs are failing. Strasburg and Gray need to overhaul their 4 seamers, and work in/develop a secondary fastball (sinker, cutter, 2 seamer).
I'm confused.  He already has a secondary fastball--the sinking one.  Maybe he needs a cutter?  I'm still cautiously optimistic.  He went from being a 97 MPH guy to a 94 guy and was a better pitcher.  Has a great curve.  Need to see more of the change.  Remember when he threw it at 92?  Well he needs one around 84/85 now. 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #91: June 12, 2022, 08:29:52 AM »
I'm confused.  He already has a secondary fastball--the sinking one.  Maybe he needs a cutter?  I'm still cautiously optimistic.  He went from being a 97 MPH guy to a 94 guy and was a better pitcher.  Has a great curve.  Need to see more of the change.  Remember when he threw it at 92?  Well he needs one around 84/85 now.

If he can possibly do it, a splitter would be the ticket for Strasburg.  It'd help the 4-seamer play up both on velo and plane.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #92: June 12, 2022, 08:49:02 AM »
If he can possibly do it, a splitter would be the ticket for Strasburg.  It'd help the 4-seamer play up both on velo and plane.
Sounds like a good idea. Shoot him an email!

Online Slateman

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #93: June 12, 2022, 08:51:50 AM »
I'm confused.  He already has a secondary fastball--the sinking one.  Maybe he needs a cutter?  I'm still cautiously optimistic.  He went from being a 97 MPH guy to a 94 guy and was a better pitcher.  Has a great curve.  Need to see more of the change.  Remember when he threw it at 92?  Well he needs one around 84/85 now. 
His "secondary" fastball has always been meh. Like I said, he needs to go back to the drawing board and develop a better fastball compliment. But at age 33, and with this godawful analytics department, its pretty unlikely.

If he can possibly do it, a splitter would be the ticket for Strasburg.  It'd help the 4-seamer play up both on velo and plane.
His changeup is basically a splitter. Same arm slot, same diving action.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #94: June 12, 2022, 09:01:24 AM »
His changeup is basically a splitter. Same arm slot, same diving action.

His is basically a circle change, though, right?  Splitter should move more vertically and with less arm-side run on it. 

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #95: June 12, 2022, 09:43:12 AM »
His "secondary" fastball has always been meh. Like I said, he needs to go back to the drawing board and develop a better fastball compliment. But at age 33, and with this godawful analytics department, its pretty unlikely.
Wasn’t he throwing the sinking fastball as much as the four seem back in 2019?  Also his fastball velocity then was 94. Not 95.

I don’t think any of us have any insight into what the analytics department or coaches are telling pitchers or what they are working on. You only see the end results. Possible that pitchers try but are just unable to make changes.

Online Five Banners

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Re: Strasburg 2022
« Reply #96: June 12, 2022, 09:48:30 AM »

Looks like home debut against the Braves

Offline CowherPower

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Re: Strasmas 3.0 - feels so 2010
« Reply #97: June 12, 2022, 10:54:49 AM »
Ok, it finally feels (almost) official that Strasburg is pitching on Tuesday.  I was nervous because the Nats and MLB still list Tuesday's starter as "TBD". https://twitter.com/MarkZuckerman/status/1535994059667427328

Offline Smithian

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Re: Strasburg 2022
« Reply #98: June 12, 2022, 11:38:16 AM »
If Stras strings together 4-5 quality starts, is he a trade candidate, even with 4 more years on that contract?
Only way he is ever in a trade conversation is a Mookie Betts type deal where someone wants Soto but they have to take on Strasburg money. Which I doubt happens.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Strasburg 2022
« Reply #99: June 13, 2022, 09:31:27 AM »
Strasburg came into the league throwing 98 mph when the mlb average FB velocity was 90.5.  In 2019, he was averaging 93.9, while the league average was 93.1.    The league average is getting close to 94 this year.  If he's going to improve from his 90.3 fb velocity from his first start, it's tough to imagine that he can be even a replacement level pitcher going forward.