Author Topic: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings 2022  (Read 2160 times)

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Online Natsinpwc

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I would like to see under 25 rankings like they do in some other sports.  Just kind of arbitrary how they cut the line between prospects and not prospects.

Online Natsinpwc

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There should be shame in the Nationals front office that they’re a fringe Top 10 farm in a season where they’ve graduated zero prospects and added multiple Top 100 prospects from another system.

I know it takes more than two deadlines (even with historic trades!) to fix the MLB’s worst farm system but shameful nonetheless.
But Ruiz and Gray and Thomas are young controllable talent.  Of course other teams have those also.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Ruiz of course graduated this year. I think Gray was last year

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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But Ruiz and Gray and Thomas are young controllable talent.  Of course other teams have those also.

Almost every team has a Lane Thomas or two.  Most of them keep them in AA or AAA.  (I'm not being hyperbolic with that: the dude who just hit a homer off Sanchez was like the Cubs' #20 prospect going into the season - although TBF I thought he was a lot better than that having seen him like 10 times in person; he was repeating AA, and he's a much better player than Thomas).  Thomas isn't a factor in rankings like this.

Ruiz and Gray, yes, and I think they actually graduated last year.  Gray certainly did.

Online Natsinpwc

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Almost every team has a Lane Thomas or two.  Most of them keep them in AA or AAA.  (I'm not being hyperbolic with that: the dude who just hit a homer off Sanchez was like the Cubs' #20 prospect going into the season - although TBF I thought he was a lot better than that having seen him like 10 times in person; he was repeating AA, and he's a much better player than Thomas).  Thomas isn't a factor in rankings like this.

Ruiz and Gray, yes, and I think they actually graduated last year.  Gray certainly did.
Just think it’s a bit tricky to rate systems when the better teams keep guys down longer and the weaker ones promote faster (for the most part).

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Just think it’s a bit tricky to rate systems when the better teams keep guys down longer and the weaker ones promote faster (for the most part).

Yeah. It's certainly deceptive when there are recent promotions that cause big drops.  But the prospect rankings are supposed to be more or less just a what-do-they-have-in-reserve thing.  People have gotten to the point of putting way too much stock in them.  They're also really skewed by how far away the talent is from the majors.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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a 45 in the DSL or the florida complex league is a potential eye popping talent, but a 45 at AAA has a decent chance of being only a reliever or a fringe regular.

Offline Smithian

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But Ruiz and Gray and Thomas are young controllable talent.  Of course other teams have those also.
I'm as high on those three, even Thomas, as anyone on this board. But I go by MLB.com, and they had all three as having graduated before this season. I admit some had Ruiz still at prospect status.

Online Natsinpwc

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I'm as high on those three, even Thomas, as anyone on this board. But I go by MLB.com, and they had all three as having graduated before this season. I admit some had Ruiz still at prospect status.
Yea but it’s young cheap talent.  Just seems strange that they only rate system prospects and not overall young talent. No doubt the Nats would be much lower in that.  That tells you where the team will likely be in a few years.

Offline Slateman

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Just Baseball has a podcast on prospects called The Call Up. They just dropped an episode for the Nats top 10 prospects

Offline DCsOwn

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https://twitter.com/finneyblake/status/1559580126601420800?s=21&t=kyLUtHnZC8r6v4dK6fqzyQ

^Posted this tweet in two spots because I wasn’t sure where it belonged exactly. Safe to say that Kiley’s a fan of the top of the system.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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mlb.com update of their top 100 has Hassell 23, Green 29, Wood 35, and Cavalli 58.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

ETAs are Cavalli 2022,  Hassell 2023, Wood 2025, and Green 2026.

Here's the Nats top 30:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals/

House #5, Henry #6, followed by Vacquero, Susana, Bennett, and De La Rosa

Offline imref

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Thanks JCA, updating the master prospects list now.

The following folks fell out of the top 30:
Branden Boissiere (1B) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=40304.0
Donovan Casey (OF) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=39526.0
Jackson Cluff (SS) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=38625.0
Dustin Saenz (LHP) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=40128.0
Jordy "Hops" Barley (SS) - Coming soon!
Mason Denaburg (RHP) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=37720.0
Jake "Y2J" Irvin (RHP) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=39935

Mighty big fall for Boissiere who was previously 19th. And Denaburg falls into Seth Romero territory.

New to the Top 30 include Zach Brzykcy (UFA out of Virginia Tech in 2021), Jose Ferrer, Jared McKenzie, Brenner Cox, Trey Lipscomb, Jake Bennett, and of course, Elijah Green

Todd Boss digs more into the changes to our rankings: http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=17809

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Thanks JCA, updating the master prospects list now.

The following folks fell out of the top 30:
Branden Boissiere (1B) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=40304.0
Donovan Casey (OF) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=39526.0
Jackson Cluff (SS) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=38625.0
Dustin Saenz (LHP) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=40128.0
Jordy "Hops" Barley (SS) - Coming soon!
Mason Denaburg (RHP) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=37720.0
Jake "Y2J" Irvin (RHP) - https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=39935

Mighty big fall for Boissiere who was previously 19th. And Denaburg falls into Seth Romero territory.

New to the Top 30 include Zach Brzykcy (UFA out of Virginia Tech in 2021), Jose Ferrer, Jared McKenzie, Brenner Cox, Trey Lipscomb, Jake Bennett, and of course, Elijah Green

Todd Boss digs more into the changes to our rankings: http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=17809
  I'm happy, tbh.  This doesn't mean they turned to crud, which is how guys have fallen out in the past.  Rather, it means the organization has more talent through trade, draft, signings, and some development success.  That's a good story.  I think this is where the Fangraphs prospect rankings show the progress.  Before the draft and trades, we only had 29 guys with a 35+ in their ranking system. The best systems had over 50. Now we are likely to have closer to 35-40 players who are that quality.  IF anything, Denaburg now is a better prospect with fewer concerns holding him back than when they had him in our top 29, for example.

Offline Section214

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  I'm happy, tbh.  This doesn't mean they turned to crud, which is how guys have fallen out in the past.  Rather, it means the organization has more talent through trade, draft, signings, and some development success.  That's a good story.  I think this is where the Fangraphs prospect rankings show the progress.  Before the draft and trades, we only had 29 guys with a 35+ in their ranking system. The best systems had over 50. Now we are likely to have closer to 35-40 players who are that quality.  IF anything, Denaburg now is a better prospect with fewer concerns holding him back than when they had him in our top 29, for example.

Agreed on Denaburg. Saenz and Boissiere are the only two guys who dropped out of the top 30 that I don't necessarily agree with, but they could be #31 and #32 or whatever so it's all a bit arbitrary. Guys dropping out is more of a testament to the influx of new talent than a knock on the guys who dropped.

Offline imref

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BBA moves the Nats system from 26 to 14.

Offline welch

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BBA moves the Nats system from 26 to 14.

Where do they rank the Padres now?

Offline nobleisthyname

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BBA moves the Nats system from 26 to 14.

I'm guessing that doesn't include Abrams.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I'm guessing that doesn't include Abrams.
right.  no Abrams, no Gore.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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right.  no Abrams, no Gore.

And MLB has the Nats at 15:  https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2022-midseason

Much better than before, but the system still has no depth.  In the top systems, prospects ranked around 20 are 45 grade-guys with upside to average MLB regulars.  With the Nats, guys down there might be backups or middle relievers if things break right. 

Offline UMDNats

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House and Henry being hurt really drags down their rankings. If they both were healthy (House hitting in a-ball, Henry on the cusp of the MLB) then the system looks significantly better right now.

Offline imref

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Padres fall to 28th

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Bowden released his new top 50 prospects for the athletic.  Has hassell at 7, wood at 18, green at 25, susana at 28, and cavalli at 48

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Bowden released his new top 50 prospects for the athletic.  Has hassell at 7, wood at 18, green at 25, susana at 28, and cavalli at 48
Jim B just :az:

Offline welch

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Bowden released his new top 50 prospects for the athletic.  Has hassell at 7, wood at 18, green at 25, susana at 28, and cavalli at 48

I read that last night. Here's hoping!

The Padres system is now ranked about 28. If Soto does not carry them to the playoffs, Preller is finished and probably they will consider trading Soto over the off-season.