Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings 2022

[imref]

New mlb.com top 100 prospects list is out: https://www.mlb.com/news/top-100-prospects-list-mlb-pipeline-2022

Cavalli rises 60 spots to #39. House is at #49.

And that's it.

[imref]

New top 30:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harvehu01.shtml

Vaquero debuts at #5

[JCA-CrystalCity]

New top 30:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harvehu01.shtml

Vaquero debuts at #5

that's the hunter harvey link.  nice hair

[imref]

Harvey debuts at #1

[imref]

#23, ahead of Colorado,  Milwaukee, Philly, Atlanta, LAA, Houston, and the CWS:

  https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2022-preseason

23. Washington Nationals
2021 midseason rank: 20
2021 preseason rank: 30
2020 midseason rank: 30
2020 preseason rank: 29
Top 100 Prospects: Cade Cavalli (No. 39), Brady House (No. 49)

Last year’s Trade Deadline blockbusters bolstered a struggling Nats system. The organization slips slightly from the midseason rankings, in part because its two Top 100 pickups -- Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray -- have graduated from prospect status, a positive outcome in the grand scheme of things. Cavalli and House — the club’s two most recent first-round picks -- top the system these days, providing the group with a top-of the-rotation type and a potential middle-of-the-lineup masher who could stick at short.

[Section214]

#23, ahead of Colorado,  Milwaukee, Philly, Atlanta, LAA, Houston, and the CWS:

  https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2022-preseason

I know the org went full-tilt for that 2019 ring and it was totally worth it, but man, how did they draft so poorly for so long? Being the 30th ranked farm for 2020 and 2021 is unacceptable. Let's get one more group of deadline flips this year and hope some our young Dominican guys develop quickly. Can't rebuild without a farm

[imref]

Looking at top picks since 2010:

2010: Harper
2011: Rendon
2012: Giolito
2013: None
2014: Fedde
2015: None
2016: Dane Dunning / Carter Kieboom
2017: Romero
2018: Denaburg
2019: Rutledge
2020: Cavalli
2021: House

The 2013-19 years were tough.  2017 was awful with Romero, Will Crowe, and a bunch of other guys nobody has ever heard of toping the list. 2018 has been a washout as well (Denaburg, Cate, Schaller, Irvin)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

at least Crowe got us Bell and is a major leaguer.  Same with Dunning. Not ready to give up on Rutledge, but yes, 2013-2018 was just awful drafting.  But for DiPuglia, the development system looks mostly GIGO.

[imref]

Affiliate roster analysis:

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=17498

Here’s some macro observations per team by level:

AAA: 12 of the 28 man roster are home grown, which seems like more than in year’s past. That includes a big chunk of the positional players and rotation … but just one home-grown reliever. Interesting. Meanwhile, 2022FAs or Rule5 pickups account for another 12 of the team … and if you add in 21FAs/Rule5s it accounts for 17 of the players on the team. That’s a lot of newly acquired veteran FAs hanging out in Rochester. I wonder what the clubhouse culture is like.

AA: Also has an inordinate number of MLFAs/Rule5 pickups: 10 of the players are 22MLFAs or Rule5 pickups (counting Gushue perhaps unfairly). In terms of draft pedigree, not too many real prospects here either. Furthermore, 17 players on the roster were there at season’s end last year, meaning not a ton of upward movement here (see more on that later on in the Promotions/Demotions section). Slightly surprised to see some names repeating here, especially Cluff and Carillo, but i’m not shocked. Cate, the opening day starter last year, starts the season on the IL.

High-A: Almost entirely home grown or prospects acquired through trade; just two MLFAs here. Amazingly Mendoza is repeating the level, as is Antuna. He may be the sole 40-man roster player in all of the minors in A-ball right now. Two interesting arms here: Irvin finally back from TJ, and Parker continuing in high-A where he was promoted to mid-season. Pineda repeating as well; he’s only 22 but it seems like the prospect shine is gone.

Low-A: Entirely home grown roster, split evenly between IFAs (15) and the Draft (16) with a few NDFAs thrown in. two of the most important names on this roster (Rutledge, Denaburg): on the DL. Of course they are. But in the exciting column, nearly every young hitting prospect we care about is here: House, Boissiere, Infante, White, and Arias all stand to feature in the field here.

[Smithian]

This system still has some issues that can't be resolved with a single trade deadline sell off, but this is the first time in many seasons I am actually excited to follow more than a couple prospects.

[imref]

MLB Pipeline update - House moves to #1

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals

Only other change is that Adon is off the prospect list, so they moved everyone up a slot and put Jake Irvin at #30.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

MLB Pipeline update - House moves to #1

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals

Only other change is that Adon is off the prospect list, so they moved everyone up a slot and put Jake Irvin at #30.

that's #1 on the Nats list.

[Section214]

that's #1 on the Nats list.

I will admit when I first saw that post my eyeballs popped thinking it meant he was #1 overall. He's #44 overall.

[Natsinpwc]

So is House moving up or Cavalli moving down?

[Section214]

So is House moving up or Cavalli moving down?

Both. Cavalli moved from 39 to 50, House moved from 49 to 44.

15-20 of the 100 will be up by midseason I bet and I think we should see Cole Henry sneak in the 100 if he's still pitching the way he has been. May get De La Rosa in there too and maybe our first round pick.

[zimm_da_kid]

Both. Cavalli moved from 39 to 50, House moved from 49 to 44.

15-20 of the 100 will be up by midseason I bet and I think we should see Cole Henry sneak in the 100 if he's still pitching the way he has been. May get De La Rosa in there too and maybe our first round pick.

If de la Rosa gets promoted and holds his own then he’s a 20 year old at high a with big success in A.  That basically puts him in line with a first round hitter age/production wise.  So yeah depending on how wel he does after promotion, he could easily make the top 100.

Henry has limited innings but has done nothing but absolutely dominate.  He’s doing it at AA now, so he’ll get into the 100 at some point for sure.

Vaquero is a reach, but he could conceivably get there if he crushes in the DSL.  Guys like Dominguez have been ranked in the top 100 as early so it’s possible.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

Mid-season rerank.

Cavalli #48, House #53.  That's all folks.

House drops from #38 to #53.

Brady House, SS, Nationals (No. 38 to No. 53): House is built like his last name at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, but only 11 of his 49 hits for Single-A Fredericksburg have gone for extra bases. That’s tough news for a player whose profile depended so much on his power. He appears to be struggling with the velocity of the pros, and he’ll need to make adjustments to catch up the remainder of the way in his first full season.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-29-prospects-2022/

29 prospects rated 35+ to 55. 

Cavalli is the 55.
Henry and House are 50. House is that low I think mostly due to distance from the majors.
45+ Vaquero (distance even moreso the main factor).
De La Rosa the only 45.
Rutledge the only 40+.
7-22 rated 40, 23-29 rated 35+.

Basic critique - very weak system that is quite top-heavy (a couple of near-ready major contributors and a couple of far-from -the majors potential superstars).  Graduations of Ruiz and Gray impacts the evaluation, too. Slow to push guys along.  Position players seem light on contact skills. Does not develop pitching at the same rate as most organizations.

[Smithian]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-29-prospects-2022/

29 prospects rated 35+ to 55. 

Cavalli is the 55.
Henry and House are 50. House is that low I think mostly due to distance from the majors.
45+ Vaquero (distance even moreso the main factor).
De La Rosa the only 45.
Rutledge the only 40+.
7-22 rated 40, 23-29 rated 35+.

Basic critique - very weak system that is quite top-heavy (a couple of near-ready major contributors and a couple of far-from -the majors potential superstars).  Graduations of Ruiz and Gray impacts the evaluation, too. Slow to push guys along.  Position players seem light on contact skills. Does not develop pitching at the same rate as most organizations.

Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Interesting to compare the tone of the Nats review in FG vs. the Astros.  Astros have 33 prospects rated 35+ or higher, the Nats 29.  Both articles call the systems top heavy, and they also call the Astros not deep.  Here's the first line from the system overview for each:

Below-average in terms of both top-end and overall depth, the Astros’ system might be a barrier between them and any significant deadline additions.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/houston-astros-top-33-prospects-2022/

This is one of the worst farm systems in baseball. It has exciting players within the universal top 125 prospects or so, but the layers of prospects beneath the near-ready stalwarts (Cavalli and Henry) and potential superstars at a greater distance (House and Vaquero) are extremely thin.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-29-prospects-2022/

That said, the Astros system is lead by Jeremy Pena, who they still count as a prospect, at 55.  They have 1 50, four 45s, 2 40+, and only 6 40s.  By comparison, the Nats have a 55 who is still in the minors (they note that Ruiz and Gray's graduation hurt the ratings), two 50s, a 45+, a 45, a 40+, and 16 40w.  I'm not sure how objectively you can lead with "one of the worst farm systems in baseball" while  merely calling the Astros below average in high end and depth.  It must be some sort of life-time achievement razz.

[zimm_da_kid]

If the international draft goes into play this year, felnin Celestin could fall into our laps

[Slateman]

If the international draft goes into play this year, felnin Celestin could fall into our laps

Neither MLB nor the union have proposed starting an international draft this year. So very doubtful.

[imref]

I saw mlb made an offer yesterday

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Kiley McDaniel, ESPN+, ranks our system #10, with Gore having graduated, along with Ruiz, and Abrams about to graduate.

10. Washington Nationals - $268 million

Preseason Value - $162 million (22nd)

Trade a generational talent and at least you'll improve the farm system a bit. LHP MacKenzie Gore has graduated from prospect status, but he is an impact talent. SS C.J. Abrams is as well and will probably graduate in the coming months, while CF Robert Hassell, RF James Wood and RHP Jarlin Susana will help to headline this system for the coming year(s).

Continuing with the huge upside trend, the Nats took the highest available upside with their top pick in the draft: CF Elijah Green. SS Brady House and RHP Cade Cavalli were the two best prospects entering the year and have largely held serve. The Nats also graduated C Keibert Ruiz early this season.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34345715/post-mlb-trade-deadline-farm-system-rankings-all-30-teams

[Smithian]

Kiley McDaniel, ESPN+, ranks our system #10, with Gore having graduated, along with Ruiz, and Abrams about to graduate.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34345715/post-mlb-trade-deadline-farm-system-rankings-all-30-teams

There should be shame in the Nationals front office that they’re a fringe Top 10 farm in a season where they’ve graduated zero prospects and added multiple Top 100 prospects from another system.

I know it takes more than two deadlines (even with historic trades!) to fix the MLB’s worst farm system but shameful nonetheless.