Author Topic: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings 2022  (Read 2158 times)

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Offline Natsinpwc

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https://www.talknats.com/2022/08/27/10-radar-players-get-excited-nats-farm-system/
Yawn.

We will be lucky of half the top guys make it.  Of these guys, White sounds the most interesting.  Wake me up when any start putting up big numbers in Double A.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Again, Elvir should not read the rest of this post.

Eric Longerhagen did his final update of his 2022 prospect lists.  His thoughts and people's comments here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-end-of-season-top-100-prospect-list-update/

Nats ended up with 5 in the top 100, Wood (#9, 60 FV), Cavalli (#26, 55 FV), Hassell (#65, 50 FV), Henry #95, 50 FV), and House (#98, 50 FV).  Wood was a big mover up, from about #80-85 at teh start of the year and a 50 FV grade.  Hassell was rated lowest risk.  Henry medium risk, which is interesting given his surgery.  House I guess is the big fall, but not surprising due to the mystery back injury and the fair debut in low A. Vacquero and Green rated 45+, De La Rosa 45, then Susana, Rutledge, and Bennett are 40+,with Bennett the only medium risk (the rest high).  Below that, Carrillo, White, and Infante are the only high risk 40 FV guys, which I guess suggest they have more upside but more risk than the other 13 given a 40 grade.  For comparison, going into 2002, FG had Cavalli #74, Henry #82, and House #98, with Hassell #50 (all four 50 FV).
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0 (last update)

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects/ (beginning of the year)




Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Again, Elvir should not read the rest of this post.

You have duly warned the angry male bovine that a red sheet awaits, and the bovine has gone off to eat some tasty grass instead of continuing.

Offline GataNats

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I like Wood, but he’s nowhere near that level.  Hassell is the guy that will be our next “Trea Turner”.  Wood seems like a left handed Werth.  Hopefully he becomes that

Offline RD

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I like Wood, but he’s nowhere near that level.  Hassell is the guy that will be our next “Trea Turner”.  Wood seems like a left handed Werth.  Hopefully he becomes that

Prime Werth was a dude. If Wood can do that for 5/6 years instead of 2 or 3 like Werth, that's pretty damn good.

It's also real early buy Wood is showing a much better hit tool than Werth ever showed in the minors and he did it at 18/19. There is a lot more upside to Wood's game than Werth. I'd say his potential is as high as anyone in the minors with his size, speed, athleticism package combined with the surprising hit tool so far.  Doesn't mean he'll reach it, but he's got everything to dream on. Anyone factoring in upside is going to rank Wood really really high.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Werth had an OPS+ ranging from 120-153 from 2007-2014. The exception was his first year in DC when it was only 97. So that’s 7 of 8 years at a high level. That would be unbelievable if the Nats could get that out of Wood. Werth was a late bloomer.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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It's mostly projection with Wood.  That a guy who has had 71 games at A ball with 330 PAs almost all at age 19, that's to be expected.  Lot's of ways it could go wrong, but the 60 FV balances his upside and his likelihood of reaching it.  He stays on track and continues to perform at A and A+ next year, the risk starts to go down and the projection rises. 

I like Wood, but he’s nowhere near that level.  Hassell is the guy that will be our next “Trea Turner”.  Wood seems like a left handed Werth.  Hopefully he becomes that

As for Hassell, he's still probably the most likely of the non-Abrams position players to be a significant contributor due to his level.  The risk isn't there.  Tools-wise, Wood is basically similar speed to Hassell with more potential power.  If you are that high on Hassell, then it's no wonder you like Wood.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Prime Werth was a dude. If Wood can do that for 5/6 years instead of 2 or 3 like Werth, that's pretty damn good.

It's also real early buy Wood is showing a much better hit tool than Werth ever showed in the minors and he did it at 18/19. There is a lot more upside to Wood's game than Werth. I'd say his potential is as high as anyone in the minors with his size, speed, athleticism package combined with the surprising hit tool so far.  Doesn't mean he'll reach it, but he's got everything to dream on. Anyone factoring in upside is going to rank Wood really really high.

Elly De La Cruz.  Who, not surprisingly, is ranked higher than Wood everywhere I've seen given that he's a 20-year-old switch hitting SS (he's less than a year older than Wood) who just hit .305/.357/.553 in AA and stole 47 bases across two levels.  And by the way, he's actually 6'7" and has legitimate 70-grade speed.

Offline imref

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Offline imref

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I'm on board with the questions about the Antuna ranking. 

I’d still like to know if House is still alive.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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https://nationalsprospects.com/2022/12/baseball-america-ranks-the-top-10-nats-prospects-10/
this may be the first time TJ White cracked our top 10, and it's also interesting they have Wood over Hassell.  I guess it is tools-based and discounts how much can go wrong between low minors and the majors. I also wonder if it is a not-so-subtle signal that they think everything below Susana (#7) is either a crap-shoot or safe but low ceiling projection that could be put in any order because it won't matter.

Offline imref

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this may be the first time TJ White cracked our top 10, and it's also interesting they have Wood over Hassell.  I guess it is tools-based and discounts how much can go wrong between low minors and the majors. I also wonder if it is a not-so-subtle signal that they think everything below Susana (#7) is either a crap-shoot or safe but low ceiling projection that could be put in any order because it won't matter.

i've always wondered how much time these writers actually spend watching the prospects versus just looking at stats.

Offline Slateman

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this may be the first time TJ White cracked our top 10, and it's also interesting they have Wood over Hassell.  I guess it is tools-based and discounts how much can go wrong between low minors and the majors. I also wonder if it is a not-so-subtle signal that they think everything below Susana (#7) is either a crap-shoot or safe but low ceiling projection that could be put in any order because it won't matter.
I imagine Hassell struggling in Double A didnt help. Now he broke his hamate bone, so that will probably sap whatever power he had for half the season

Meanwhile, Wood made tremendous strides last season cutting his swing and miss while making contact.

Wood's ceiling is Judge. Hassel's ceiling is Brandon Nimo.

Personally, I think Susana is a crapshoot too.

Offline Mattionals

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I imagine Hassell struggling in Double A didnt help. Now he broke his hamate bone, so that will probably sap whatever power he had for half the season

Meanwhile, Wood made tremendous strides last season cutting his swing and miss while making contact.

Wood's ceiling is Judge. Hassel's ceiling is Brandon Nimo.

Personally, I think Susana is a crapshoot too.


If Hassel and Wood hit those ceilings, that is one hell of an outfield. Throw in Green and Vaquero and things look good.

Offline imref

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Uh, Hassell was pretty freaking good over his last month at AA: .293 / .379 / .397 in 58 PAs.

Offline Slateman

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If Hassel and Wood hit those ceilings, that is one hell of an outfield. Throw in Green and Vaquero and things look good.
Sure, but for Wood thats the top 10 percentile. He has a ton of risk and could just as easily be Dominic Brown.

Hassell is a "safer' prospect, but barring a minor miracle, he has a much lower ceiling. Nimo is that top 10 percentile. Could also be a Jake McCarthy, Steven Kwan, or what Alex Verdugo is.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Uh, Hassell was pretty freaking good over his last month at AA: .293 / .379 / .397 in 58 PAs.

"58 PAs" and "a month" don't square with one another.

Offline imref

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"58 PAs" and "a month" don't square with one another.

season ended September 17, 15 games that month. He started hitting well with the August 24 game (2-5, 2B, BB)

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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season ended September 17, 15 games that month. He started hitting well with the August 24 game (2-5, 2B, BB)

That's what I mean, though.  15-20 games just isn't enough to say much unless the dude's OPSing like 1.200.  Over 60 PAs, even a dropped F8 scored a double makes a big difference.

Offline Natsinpwc

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That's what I mean, though.  15-20 games just isn't enough to say much unless the dude's OPSing like 1.200.  Over 60 PAs, even a dropped F8 scored a double makes a big difference.
We will see how he does this year. Not unusual for a guy to struggle a bit his first couple months at a new level. The last 15 games or so are encouraging. Or at least better than the alternative of continuing to struggle over those 15 games.

Offline Kevrock

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Here's the full Rutledge report since the blogger seemed confused.

9. Jackson Rutledge | RHP
Jackson Rutledge
Born: Apr 1, 1999
Bats: R Throws: R
Ht.: 6'8" Wt.: 250
Drafted/Signed: San Jacinto (Texas) JC, 2019 (1st round).
Signed By: Brandon Larson
Minors: 8-6 | 4.90 ERA | 99 SO | 29 BB | 98 IP
VIEW PLAYER CARD
Track Record: Injuries and battling back are common themes in Rutledge's story. He started his career at Arkansas and suffered a torn hip labrum. He transferred to San Jacinto (Texas) JC in 2019, and the Nationals drafted him 17th overall that spring. Rutledge reached Low-A in his pro debut but suffered a setback at the alternate training site in 2020, with shoulder and blister issues limiting him. He pitched to a 7.68 ERA in 36.1 innings across three lower levels in 2021, adding concern to his ability to be consistent. He responded with a dominant 2022 season at Low-A Fredericksburg, striking out 99 in 97.1 innings. He ended the season on a high note by delivering eight shutout innings in Game 1 of the Carolina League semifinals.

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-8, Rutledge can be an intimidating figure on the mound, and he has a fastball to match. He throws both four-seam and two-seam fastballs, with both versions of his heater sitting 94-95 mph and touching 97-98. His four-seam has modest carry, and he looks more like a sinker/slider pitcher after inducing ground balls about half the time in 2022. Rutledge's best secondary is an 82-87 mph slider that generated whiffs at a 47% clip and has earned plus grades. He also throws a firm changeup in the upper 80s. Previously a below-average strike-thrower, Rutledge walked just 6.9% of batters with Low-A Fredericksburg in 2022, though scouts wonder about timing issues that stem from a super compact arm action and his ability to sync up his release and foot strike.

The Future: The Nationals were impressed with the improvements that Rutledge showed in 2022 and believe he still has a chance to be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Still, he has not pitched above High-A as he enters his age-24 season. The 2023 season will be more of a test.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 70. Curveball: 50. Slider: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 50

https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1012/washington-nationals/organizational/#90194

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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We will see how he does this year. Not unusual for a guy to struggle a bit his first couple months at a new level. The last 15 games or so are encouraging. Or at least better than the alternative of continuing to struggle over those 15 games.

Oh, yeah.  Just give him a ticket to AA and let him eat.  From the little I've seen, he can play, but he just needs to do more of that.