Author Topic: Lane Thomas Superstar (Read 16281 times)

imref · « **Reply #175 on:** July 09, 2023, 11:49:43 pm »

You absolutely trade Thomas this year if you can get a piece for 2025

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #176 on:** July 10, 2023, 10:02:55 am »

Quote from: Slateman on July 09, 2023, 08:02:59 pm

Does Crews "falling" to the Nats make Thomas more expendable? Not saying the asking price got lower, but Crews and Wood in the OF in 2025 makes trading Thomas to the Marlins or Guardians for a high level pitching prospect a lot more tolerable

I'm not sure it has that much of an impact because I was already in the let's make a deal camp. TBH, were it Skenes instead of Crews, it would have left more money on the table for signing FA corner OFs, so Thomas could have been dealt regardless of how the top 2 landed. That said, outfield has 3 positions, and no matter how fast Wood and Crews are, there's going to be a need for a corner OF/DH in 2025. I still lean deal, and am comfortable rolling with a Garrett-Call-Rutherford (let's go, new guy!) outfield in August and September, or even keeping Dickerson around and playing Garrett in right. Robles healthy makes me more comfortable (although Call isn't a corner bat).

welch · « **Reply #177 on:** July 10, 2023, 11:16:13 am »

Maybe it depends on Hassell. If he recovers and hits the way scouts rated him, then he will win an OF job from Thomas. Otherwise, the Nats OF next July would be Thomas, Crews, and Wood. And that assumes Wood moves quickly through Harrisburg and Rochester. Otherwise, the 2024 OF will start Nobody, and Nobody, and Nobody.

So, yes, maybe Trade Thomas for another teams top-5 prospect plus one of their next-tier prospects. Rizzo should listen. But that's not to guarantee that some team will offer enough to justify trading Thomas.

As a long-time Yankee fan, I like the idea of trading Candelario and Thomas to New York. As a third-generation Washington baseball fan, I want Thomas to stay until the Nats have someone to replace him.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #178 on:** July 10, 2023, 03:47:08 pm »

from Ben Clemens FG chat today:

Quote

Guest
2:54
Should the Nats trade Lane Thomas? Do you think they will?
Ben Clemens
2:54
I think they will if they get the right offer
2:55
He's been solid enough this year that I bet you an outfield-needy team like the Rangers is interested
And he almost certainly won't be on the next great Nats team
but if they're getting lowballed, I think it would be totally reasonable to just keep him, see how he does, and see if teams want him next year instead

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-7-10-23/

maybe a platoon with Jankowski?

Slateman · « **Reply #179 on:** July 10, 2023, 03:58:46 pm »

I dont think the Rangers are that outfield needy. Duran has hit well and can play LF. Taveres is a good defensive CFer. Rangers need to push on a starting pitcher and probably another reliever.

But if they want Thomas, bargaining starts with Leiter

welch · « **Reply #180 on:** July 10, 2023, 04:06:41 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 10, 2023, 03:47:08 pm

from Ben Clemens FG chat today:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-7-10-23/

maybe a platoon with Jankowski?

Thomas is a good RF with a good arm and good judgement about where to throw. He seems to be a .;280 - .290 hitter, with an OPS of .750 - .850. And he is likely to hit 20 homers a year. He is a good ballplayer, not likely to be challenged for a job until Hassell shows he can really hit next season, and Green learns how to make contact. Green seems unlikely to be ready before 2026.

A team needs to offer somebody good for Thomas.

Thomas and Candelario for a teams number one prospect? That seems about right. No gambles, no "hope-for" prospects. Thomas is real, a starter, and so is Candelario...although Candy is a rental. Thomas is under contract for a few more seasons.

Mattionals · « **Reply #181 on:** July 10, 2023, 08:36:06 pm »

Quote from: welch on July 10, 2023, 04:06:41 pm

Thomas is a good RF with a good arm and good judgement about where to throw. He seems to be a .;280 - .290 hitter, with an OPS of .750 - .850. And he is likely to hit 20 homers a year. He is a good ballplayer, not likely to be challenged for a job until Hassell shows he can really hit next season, and Green learns how to make contact. Green seems unlikely to be ready before 2026.

A team needs to offer somebody good for Thomas.

Thomas and Candelario for a teams number one prospect? That seems about right. No gambles, no "hope-for" prospects. Thomas is real, a starter, and so is Candelario...although Candy is a rental. Thomas is under contract for a few more seasons.

Unless you are trading with a team who has a barren system, you aren't getting a teams top prospect for Thomas and Candy. Best to set your sights on a 50FV prospect and best case that is a top 50 prospect.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #182 on:** July 10, 2023, 08:56:34 pm »

Quote from: Mattionals on July 10, 2023, 08:36:06 pm

Unless you are trading with a team who has a barren system, you aren't getting a teams top prospect for Thomas and Candy. Best to set your sights on a 50FV prospect and best case that is a top 50 prospect.

for perspective, that type of prospect would a Cavalli/House level prospect. A touch better than a Vaquero or Henry. I am fine with that.

Mattionals · « **Reply #183 on:** July 10, 2023, 09:01:55 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 10, 2023, 08:56:34 pm

for perspective, that type of prospect would a Cavalli/House level prospect. A touch better than a Vaquero or Henry. I am fine with that.

Yup, and that is a hell of a return. Welch said a teams number one prospect, and as much as I love Candy and Lane, that tandem isn't bringing back Eury Perez (the Miami pitcher, not the former Nats farmhand).

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #184 on:** July 10, 2023, 09:15:12 pm »

So how did Lane Thomas get so much better with the Nats if we are so bad at player development? Outlier?

blue911 · « **Reply #185 on:** July 11, 2023, 06:39:37 am »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on July 10, 2023, 09:15:12 pm

So how did Lane Thomas get so much better with the Nats if we are so bad at player development? Outlier?

Health

Slateman · « **Reply #186 on:** July 11, 2023, 06:42:38 am »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on July 10, 2023, 09:15:12 pm

So how did Lane Thomas get so much better with the Nats if we are so bad at player development? Outlier?

Cardinals did most of his development

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #187 on:** July 11, 2023, 07:10:40 am »

Time for a little LOLCardinals. They had in their system Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena, and Lane Thomas at the same time and dumped all 3.

welch · « **Reply #188 on:** July 11, 2023, 09:12:48 am »

Quote from: blue911 on July 11, 2023, 06:39:37 am

Health

Best I remember, Night Train Lane Thomas had Covid. He was recovering when the Cardinals traded him for the memory of Jon Lester.

Slateman · « **Reply #189 on:** July 11, 2023, 10:04:45 am »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 11, 2023, 07:10:40 am

Time for a little LOLCardinals. They had in their system Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena, and Lane Thomas at the same time and dumped all 3.

Oh and Zach Gallen and Sandy Alcantara

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #190 on:** July 11, 2023, 10:45:10 am »

Quote from: Slateman on July 11, 2023, 10:04:45 am

Oh and Zach Gallen and Sandy Alcantara

best org in baseball.

OTOH, geez did they have talent fly through their system like grass through a goose.

welch · « **Reply #191 on:** July 11, 2023, 01:10:13 pm »

Thomas if the starting RF on the 2024 team that pulls the Nats to .500, playing alongside Crews and Wood when they are ready. That's the year this Nats team aims to be like the 1960 Senators and the 2011 Nats. Thomas starts in 2025, when the Nats go well above .500 and compete with the Braves and Marlins to win the NL East. Maybe Hassell can win RF, or maybe Pinckney. but those would be "nice to have" problems, and both are heavy "maybes". (The Braves have to stumble some time. Marlins look good. The Mets are now, have always been, and will be Metsie. Can the Phillies hold it together a couple more years?)

You trade Thomas for someone equally good...and that's not likely.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #192 on:** July 11, 2023, 06:59:59 pm »

Ok I get it now. Anyone who improves has NOTHING to do with the Nats organization. Anyone who regresses or stays bad has EVERYTHING to do with the Nats organization.

Slateman · « **Reply #193 on:** July 11, 2023, 07:53:22 pm »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on July 11, 2023, 06:59:59 pm

Ok I get it now. Anyone who improves has NOTHING to do with the Nats organization. Anyone who regresses or stays bad has EVERYTHING to do with the Nats organization.

I mean . . . https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lane-thomas/16939/game-log?position=OF&season=&gds=2021-08-15&gde=2021-10-31&type=0

Comes here, posts a 127 wRC+ with a 13% walk rate and a 22% strikeout rate. He's only gotten worse from there. Darnell Coles strikes again.

aspenbubba · « **Reply #194 on:** July 17, 2023, 09:17:14 pm »

Thomas has looked awful since being bumped down one spot from the lead off position. I’m not advocating that he should be moved up because CJ is probably the long term answer. He is not making loud contact and is swinging at balls out of the zone.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #195 on:** July 18, 2023, 08:49:23 am »

Quote from: aspenbubba on July 17, 2023, 09:17:14 pm

Thomas has looked awful since being bumped down one spot from the lead off position. I’m not advocating that he should be moved up because CJ is probably the long term answer. He is not making loud contact and is swinging at balls out of the zone.

now you know why there's a lot of skepticism about his trade value outside the fanbase. He was vastly outperforming his peripherals. It's sort of the reverse of Ruiz, who for most of the year was vastly underperforming his expected stats based on contact.

Thomas: .355 wOBA, .315 xwOBA
Ruiz: .297 wOBA, .336 xwOBA

It used to be even more extreme a few weeks ago.

Thomas has contact issue (25.4 K%), Ruiz does not (9.1%). Ruiz hits the ball just about as hard, at a higher launch angle (11.6 degrees vs. 14.6), but that's because more of Thomas's contact is grounders. When Thomas does hit the ball in the air, a higher % of his flies go out (slightly higher barrel rate, HR/FB 14.3% v 10.5%). Thomas is more of a pull hitter (50% vs 41%). I'm guessing Thomas's slump is the Ks and the grounders showing up.

catocony · « **Reply #196 on:** July 18, 2023, 08:57:09 am »

Thomas has a couple of cold games at the plate and now he's dead meat?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #197 on:** July 18, 2023, 09:05:50 am »

Quote from: catocony on July 18, 2023, 08:57:09 am

Thomas has a couple of cold games at the plate and now he's dead meat?

nah, he's still an above average hitter but just maybe less than what he was showing.

We can say, "trade him while he's hot," but the folks on the other side of the deal will listen to their own scouts and analytics guys saying "don't overpay, he's a bit of a mirage."

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #198 on:** July 18, 2023, 09:18:23 am »

His BABIP when I looked last week was .380. Down to .370. Does not seems sustainable. The last two seasons it was .291 and .293. Decent ball player. A fourth OF on a contending team.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #199 on:** July 18, 2023, 09:21:50 am »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on July 18, 2023, 09:18:23 am

His BABIP when I looked last week was .380. Down to .370. Does not seems sustainable. The last two seasons it was .291 and .293. Decent ball player. A fourth OF on a contending team.

his average is what is inflated. I think the power is real.