Author Topic: Lane Thomas Superstar  (Read 11493 times)

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Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #150: June 29, 2023, 11:02:15 PM »
league average hitter in 2023. No one is paying much for a hit first half. Maybe they can trade Meneses also based on two months last year.
He's been a 120+ wRC hitter for over 600 plate appearances.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #151: June 29, 2023, 11:10:59 PM »
He's been a 120+ wRC hitter for over 600 plate appearances.
Most of the teams you mentioned have serious offensive issues that won’t be solved by one hitter. The Astros and Yankees appear to have enough pitching to make the playoffs. Would you as a GM trade a top ten prospect for Lane Thomas?  The only team I could see doing it would be the Yankees because of the pressure. But Judge will probably come back sometime and their offensive issues are really with the IF and C.  If Judge does not come back they are sunk anyway. Max and Trea brought back two top ten guys. Do you really think Lane would bring one? 

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #152: June 30, 2023, 03:34:32 AM »
Saying Max and Trea only brought back two top-10 guys is underselling it a bit. Those top-10 guys were the #1 and #2 prospects on a top-5 ranked farm system. Plus they also got two lottery tickets.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #153: June 30, 2023, 09:44:41 AM »
Yankees, Guardians, Twins, Astros, Marlins, and Brewers all need outfield help.
this guy screams Twins to me. With the Yankees, he'd be a 4th outfielder for years. I don't think he's a starter long term there. He'd be a good complement to Kwan and Brennan for the Guardians due to handedness, but he'd be a short-side platoon guy (who was it that platooned with Hafner in his prime?). Bell crushes lefties so I don't think he DHs. I like the Fishies corners so I'm not sure of the market. Astros I think have less of a need.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #154: June 30, 2023, 10:02:29 AM »
this guy screams Twins to me. With the Yankees, he'd be a 4th outfielder for years. I don't think he's a starter long term there. He'd be a good complement to Kwan and Brennan for the Guardians due to handedness, but he'd be a short-side platoon guy (who was it that platooned with Hafner in his prime?). Bell crushes lefties so I don't think he DHs. I like the Fishies corners so I'm not sure of the market. Astros I think have less of a need.
He starts in RF for the Yankees today. He probably plays there all season with Judge DHing. Probably plays some CF when Bader gets hurt.

A package of Thomas and Candelario is probably enough to get the Yankees to a WC. That would bring back one of Peraza, Pereira, or Jones, and probably an additional piece

For the Guardians, he starts in a corner and they can move Kwan or Brennan to CF. Myles Straw is a black hole for a team in desperate need of offense. Given the contract they gave him, he should be sent down to work on his swing.

For the Marlins, their corner OFers are barely average MLB hitters. That team has phenomenal pitching. With Jazz coming back and Soler a full time DH, they are a bat or two away from beingna serious postseason contender.

The Astros may still need OF help. Brantley is old and coming off shoulder surgery. Big question marks there. Alvarez is not back until mid to late July. Astros are curre tly 0.5 game out of the WC and will need to make multiple moves to get into the WC.

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #155: June 30, 2023, 10:56:49 AM »
this guy screams Twins to me. With the Yankees, he'd be a 4th outfielder for years. I don't think he's a starter long term there. He'd be a good complement to Kwan and Brennan for the Guardians due to handedness, but he'd be a short-side platoon guy (who was it that platooned with Hafner in his prime?). Bell crushes lefties so I don't think he DHs. I like the Fishies corners so I'm not sure of the market. Astros I think have less of a need.

Dick Night Train Lane Thomas would start for the Yankees. They are playing scraps in the OF right now, scraps with names like Kiner-Falefa. They have Harrison Bader right now, but Bader is just returning from the IL. Judge has a torn tendon in his toes, and, last I read, cannot walk comfortably. Yankees have no idea when he might play again.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #156: June 30, 2023, 11:11:57 AM »
I think theres some underestimation on value and team needs. The expanded WC is changing how teams percieve the deadline. Soto, Marsh, Gallo, Benintendi, and Drury all moved at last year's deadline. Yes, pitching is important, but now the deadline has more emphasis on picking up what a team needs to make the playoffs, not just what their playoff roster looks like.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #157: June 30, 2023, 11:44:32 AM »
Welch, Slate - my 4th OF long term comment about Thomas is that he would be kept around for years as a backup by the Yankees when they are at full strength and fully invested in the OF. Clearly, he would start right now to upgrade what they are playing everyday this season.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #158: June 30, 2023, 12:13:00 PM »
Ah so now it’s Thomas AND Candelario to get a top prospect!! That is more realistic. 

The Phillies and Padres were pretty desperate last year to make the playoffs. I guess the Yankees are but don’t see it with some of these other teams mentioned.

Pitching is still the biggest need. Bullpens are overworked with starters going fewer innings every year. And most teams don’t have more than three reliable starters.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #159: June 30, 2023, 12:15:00 PM »
Welch, Slate - my 4th OF long term comment about Thomas is that he would be kept around for years as a backup by the Yankees when they are at full strength and fully invested in the OF. Clearly, he would start right now to upgrade what they are playing everyday this season.
They really need a 3B. Donaldson is just terrible. And 1B but they are stuck with Rizzo. And the rookie superstar at SS is not hitting like the future HOF he is. They seema perfect match for Candy.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #160: June 30, 2023, 12:59:06 PM »
Welch, Slate - my 4th OF long term comment about Thomas is that he would be kept around for years as a backup by the Yankees when they are at full strength and fully invested in the OF. Clearly, he would start right now to upgrade what they are playing everyday this season.
If he's a 130 wRC+ hitter, he starts in just about every outfield.

Ah so now it’s Thomas AND Candelario to get a top prospect!! That is more realistic. 

The Phillies and Padres were pretty desperate last year to make the playoffs. I guess the Yankees are but don’t see it with some of these other teams mentioned.

Pitching is still the biggest need. Bullpens are overworked with starters going fewer innings every year. And most teams don’t have more than three reliable starters.

Thomas alone gets you a team's top 5 prospect. Thomas is a better hitter than Adam Eaton, has half a season less control, and costs less. Eaton required two top 10 prospects to acquire, one of which was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball.

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #161: June 30, 2023, 01:50:07 PM »
Thomas would start next season, too. Yankees have Judge and nobody else. Bader becomes a free agent this Fall, and he has been on the IL twice this season. They could buy a free agent for 2024, but not two. Hal Steinbrenner will not spend like Steve Cohen.

Of course, the Yankees also need a 3B. LaMahieu, who has not hit much -- .227 average and 650 OPS -- or fielded well. He is owed $15 million for this and the next three seasons.  Donaldson is hitting about .140, and the Yankees will likely buy him out of his contract. Neither of them will help them in the playoffs, or even to make the playoffs.

Therefore, keep Thomas and trade Candelario for someone like Oswald Peraza. Thomas is good enough to help make the Nats a .500 ball club and then to start as they compete into the playoffs again.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #162: June 30, 2023, 01:52:50 PM »
I mean it worked out with a championship but Rizzo was fleeced on that trade.  Between them so far this year Giolito and Dunning are at about 4 bWAR. Lopez not doing so well but still a major leaguer. That’s exactly the kind of tirade that scares GMs. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #163: June 30, 2023, 01:59:25 PM »
I mean it worked out with a championship but Rizzo was fleeced on that trade.  Between them so far this year Giolito and Dunning are at about 4 bWAR. Lopez not doing so well but still a major leaguer. That’s exactly the kind of tirade that scares GMs. 
Rizzo has consistently won trades. The only reason we hold that Rizzo got "fleeced" was because Eaton tore his knee. He posts 4-6 WAR seasons in DC 2017-2019, and its a pretty even trade.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #164: June 30, 2023, 09:50:19 PM »

The Astros may still need OF help. Brantley is old and coming off shoulder surgery. Big question marks there. Alvarez is not back until mid to late July. Astros are curre tly 0.5 game out of the WC and will need to make multiple moves to get into the WC.

Ironically, Ken Rosenthal's reporting that the Astros are looking to trade away an outfielder from surplus.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/astros-open-to-trading-outfielder.html

Quote
“We’re exploring trading major-league player for major-league player with teams that are contending that make sense,” general manager Dana Brown tells Rosenthal. “We have a lot of outfielders right now. If we could move an outfield piece for something that could fill another need, we probably would be interested in doing that. Player for player? Yeah. We have to get creative to open up the market. We’re definitely exploring that.”
...
However, it does seem as though the club is willing to consider subtracting one of its outfielders in order to address other needs. Brown has been fairly open in recent weeks about how the club would ideally like to add a versatile left-handed bat or perhaps some pitching help. Traditionally, they might have been able to achieve those goals by dealing prospects. But since their theoretical trading partners could be contenders this year, the Astros may have to move a big leaguer.

With Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez on the injured list, the club has been using an outfield mix of Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Corey Julks. With Brantley and Alvarez working their way back to health, it’s possible that someone in that group gets squeezed off the roster and onto the trade block.

Offline stoneghost28

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #165: July 02, 2023, 04:18:06 PM »
Derek Hill has put up some pretty good numbers at Rochester. If trading Thomas means we get a solid 2025 piece and have to deal with Hill at the major league level, that seems like a no-brainer.
Me as well. I don't get the desire to keep him rather than flip him.

Since the Corbin/Stras contracts imploded, and the sell off began two years ago (and the epic collapse 3 years ago during that covid season) we knew this was going to be a long as hell rebuild because the farm system was absolutely dry to the bone from win now trades and terrible drafting stretching back a decade. The situation was so bad we were basically guaranteed to be god awful through at least '24 or '25. So why would we value Lane Thomas more, as an asset in 95-105 loss seasons, than as a trade piece to build out the team for '25 and beyond?

Maybe it just comes down to philosophy, but for me, if we steal talent blind from someone that's already in their prime or approaching it when we have a long stretch run of sucking in front of us to me literally the only thing that makes sense is to capitalize on that asset for pieces that can be useful when we need them (several years down the line). I'm not sure if he should be traded before this deadline, next winter or next year, but for damn sure he should be traded. At least to me anyway.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #166: July 02, 2023, 04:24:08 PM »
Me as well. I don't get the desire to keep him rather than flip him.

Since the Corbin/Stras contracts imploded, and the sell off began two years ago (and the epic collapse 3 years ago during that covid season) we knew this was going to be a long as hell rebuild because the farm system was absolutely dry to the bone from win now trades and terrible drafting stretching back a decade. The situation was so bad we were basically guaranteed to be god awful through at least '24 or '25. So why would we value Lane Thomas more, as an asset in 95-105 loss seasons, than as a trade piece to build out the team for '25 and beyond?

Maybe it just comes down to philosophy, but for me, if we steal talent blind from someone that's already in their prime or approaching it when we have a long stretch run of sucking in front of us to me literally the only thing that makes sense is to capitalize on that asset for pieces that can be useful when we need them (several years down the line). I'm not sure if he should be traded before this deadline, next winter or next year, but for damn sure he should be traded. At least to me anyway.
I suppose that as good as we feel about Lester for Thomas right now, imagine how good we'll feel when Rizzo gets a 2025 starting 1st baseman who can mash and a reliever who can give us several years for high leverage relief.

Offline stoneghost28

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #167: July 02, 2023, 04:24:20 PM »
They need to field a team before 20 rookies make the squad.  The rookies will need veterans to learn from.  Lane Thomas is the last person they should move.

The teams not going to be good for years still. Its empty calories. We can worry about veteran presence and chemistry when we're a year or 1.5 away, we aren't there. We still need to fill the prospect farm badly, especially considering that Hassell and Elijah have both gone sideways in the past year. We can fill that veteran know how angle w/less valuable veteran assets that won't return quality prospects, guys that will need to be shipped out. I'll change my tune when we're in the equivalent of that 2010 or 2011 season (69 or 80 wins, whichever you're more comfortable with, for me, it's the '11 season).

For now, any veteran that can get us a good return or solid return in prospect talent has to go.

Offline stoneghost28

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #168: July 02, 2023, 04:29:09 PM »
It’s the single dumbest draft lottery implemented in an American sports league. Have a draft lottery, that’s fine but you can’t say you’re trying to avoid tanking whilst allowing small market teams to continue to do so. It’s absurd.

It's stupid in general. There's absolutely nothing wrong with tanking, especially when you're in a sport like say (going off topic I know) basketball where players only have interest in fun cities, and state income tax free teams. Tanking is a way to rebalance what is a fundamentally unbalanced system that rewards specific franchises unfairly far more than others. To eliminate the incentive to tank, and to actually punish teams that struggle to draw FA's, can't afford the same amount of outlays for players etc is just beyond asinine to me.

I find it stunning that instead of supporting tanking, leagues are actively trying to doubly and triply punish cities that are already screwed. As for the baseball one, as you say, it seems the stupidest of all the stupid lottery systems bar none. Just mind numbingly ridiculous.

Offline stoneghost28

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #169: July 02, 2023, 04:48:03 PM »
If he's not their top prospect and they need an outfield bat? Sure.

But that's the point, I don't think anyone in the trade camp is saying trade him for a lottery ticket. He should get a real prospect back in return, and if such a trade were to materialize, I think the Nats would be foolish not to take it. There is very little chance Thomas plays on the next winning Nats team for more than a year at the absolute most. I'd much prefer having a real prospect over Lane Thomas and the Nats being a "respectable" 75 win team.

Pretty much. When I say its mandatory, it doesn't mean I'm cool with peeling off some teams 27th ranked prospect. I'm not. If you can't drive a quality deal that generates a reasonable prospect return, then "hold" and bet on the player (assuming you believe in him) and getting a better prospect later, during the winter or next summer's deadline, but if we get a quality deal built around prospect(s)? Absolutely take it. This team aint good till at least '25, and as such, keeping around guys that will be gonezo when they finally approach .500 strikes me as self-defeating. It's literally what the idiot Wizards did the past four years when I was screaming non-stop against a blank stare after Wall fell out of the shower (signaling the end of the Wall-Beal era literally 4.5 freaking years ago but apparently the only ones that didn't grok that we're the people who were being paid big money to absolutely and fundamentally understand that).

Why do we want to do what the Wizards just spent the past nearly five years doing? Spending all those years turning real assets into literally nothing of long term value whatsoever and delaying the ability to short cut a rebuild by nearly a half decade? Insanity. Baseball's a different sport with different systems of course, but rebuilding is still rebuilding. Thankfully the Nats got the big crucial parts right (sending out the best parts for the biggest return they could find), but getting the small parts right is also important and Lane is definitely one of those small but valuable pieces just like turning Lester into him was one.

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #170: July 02, 2023, 05:20:53 PM »
Pretty much. When I say its mandatory, it doesn't mean I'm cool with peeling off some teams 27th ranked prospect. I'm not. If you can't drive a quality deal that generates a reasonable prospect return, then "hold" and bet on the player (assuming you believe in him) and getting a better prospect later, during the winter or next summer's deadline, but if we get a quality deal built around prospect(s)? Absolutely take it. This team aint good till at least '25, and as such, keeping around guys that will be gonezo when they finally approach .500 strikes me as self-defeating. It's literally what the idiot Wizards did the past four years when I was screaming non-stop against a blank stare after Wall fell out of the shower (signaling the end of the Wall-Beal era literally 4.5 freaking years ago but apparently the only ones that didn't understand that we're the people who were being paid big money to ABSOLUTELY NO THAT).

Why do we want to do what the Wizards just spent the past nearly five years doing? Spending all those years turning real assets into literally nothing of long term value whatsoever and delaying the ability to short cut a rebuild by nearly a half decade? Insanity. Baseball's a different sport with different systems of course, but rebuilding is still rebuilding. Thankfully the Nats got the big crucial parts right (sending out the best parts for the biggest return they could find), but getting the small parts right is also important and Lane is definitely one of those small but valuable pieces just like turning Lester into him was one.

The Nats did that when they traded Max and Trea for Ruiz and Gray. Then traded Hudson for Mason Thompson, and traded Gomes and Harrison for Drew Millas, and, last season, traded Soto and Bell for all those San Diego prospects. They have traded the stars.

Sure, consider a trade for Thomas, but it must return a sure-fire better player, and not a prospect with "potential". Otherwise, the Nats are just churning players, rather than improving.

Next season looks like .500 to me. The rotation looks like it will be pretty good, and will become better when Cavalli returns. Rutledge looks good, but needs some finishing at AAA. Bennett looks good and will improve. The Nats have some "good enough" relief pitchers, although, of course, they need a few more.

The weakness will be at 3B, at power, and in the OF. The team needs a couple of free agents: someone almost as good as Candelario and much better than Dickerson. They don't improve by replacing Thomas with a prospect who is just a hope. Otherwise, they should be trading Abrams and Ruiz for a few more prospects.

No, MLB is not the same as basketball. Baseball uses a larger roster, plus the 40-man, and it depends on a large pool of minor-leaguers. Whatever the Wizards did cannot be compared to building a baseball team.

And a reminder: the MLB draft is intended to "encourage" teams to spend on free agents. The issue back then was that teams had ignored good free agents who were a few years either side of 30. It made it even stranger that no teams wanted to bid for Machado and for Harper at $300 million. The Collective Bargaining Agreement seems to punish large-market teams that want to tank year after year to improve themselves.

Offline catocony

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #171: July 03, 2023, 04:07:27 PM »
Hassel and Green have gone sideways for , what now, about two months?  The Nats have been lucky in the past with ready-for-prime-time draft selections like Zimmerman (minors for two whole months), Strasburg, Storen, Harper, etc.  If it were as simple as drafting high and he moves steadily up through the minors for 3 years and they're a major league starter, it would happen for more often than it does with high draft picks. 

The Nats have plenty of 1st round failures - Chris Marrero was the first one, if you remember - who have been penciled in by Rookie Monsters to be a starter in the Bigs by the time they're 22 years old.  Rookie Monsters love all rookies until they have a pause in their progress, then it's all gloom and doom on that player. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #172: July 03, 2023, 04:16:17 PM »
Hassel and Green have gone sideways for , what now, about two months?  The Nats have been lucky in the past with ready-for-prime-time draft selections like Zimmerman (minors for two whole months), Strasburg, Storen, Harper, etc.  If it were as simple as drafting high and he moves steadily up through the minors for 3 years and they're a major league starter, it would happen for more often than it does with high draft picks. 

The Nats have plenty of 1st round failures - Chris Marrero was the first one, if you remember - who have been penciled in by Rookie Monsters to be a starter in the Bigs by the time they're 22 years old.  Rookie Monsters love all rookies until they have a pause in their progress, then it's all gloom and doom on that player. 
Meh, Im not gonna make any decisions based on two months. Hassell is coming off hammate fracture, so Im much more interested in how he looks in September and next season. Green was always high risk and its his first season.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #173: July 09, 2023, 08:02:59 PM »
Does Crews "falling" to the Nats make Thomas more expendable? Not saying the asking price got lower, but Crews and Wood in the OF in 2025 makes trading Thomas to the Marlins or Guardians for a high level pitching prospect a lot more tolerable

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #174: July 09, 2023, 08:28:16 PM »
Does Crews "falling" to the Nats make Thomas more expendable? Not saying the asking price got lower, but Crews and Wood in the OF in 2025 makes trading Thomas to the Marlins or Guardians for a high level pitching prospect a lot more tolerable


I kinda think it does. If Wood and House keep pushing, and the Nats just drafted the next FOTF in Crews, it's better to flip anything and everything to get pitching.