Lane Thomas Superstar

[Natsinpwc]

his average is what is inflated. I think the power is real.

Yeah. Fair enough. He has some pop.

[welch]

I think Thomas is basically a .280-.295 hitter who can hit higher, sometimes. The .300 is above that. He looks like a .750-.850 OPS guy. He is a competent major league OF, able to hold down RF until the Nats have someone better, and the Nats have no one better in the system. He can start alongside Wood and Crews if they make it in late 2024, but there is no third prospect OF unless that's Hassell. And Hassell has not recovered from his hand injury, if that's what is holding him back, and overall, Hassell looks like a late 2025 guy at the most optimistic.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

fun comment and analysis of Lane Thomas by Dan Szymborski, whose ZiPS stat projections are featured prominently on Fangraphs.

He's put out a list of guys who are overperforming their expected stats per ZiPS. Thomas is prominent in a few of his lists.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hitter-zstats-entering-the-homestretch-part-2-the-stats/

Regarding BABIP, his actual has been .360, which is the 3rd biggest overperformance in all of MLB vs ZiPS projections (.293). Szymborski admits Thomas confuses the system and probably a lot of MLB GMs:

Lane Thomas is on top of this list and near the top of some of the others here, as he’s having a season that’s really confusing ZiPS; the system doesn’t believe his BABIP, but also thinks that based on his contact rates, he should have walked more and struck out less than he has. His swinging strike rate is minuscule for a guy with a decently high strikeout rate. It’s a weird mishmash of skills interacting with each other, and I suspect that other teams in the league are in wait-and-see mode with Thomas as well; I can’t imagine the Nats wouldn’t have traded him if they got a healthy offer.

Joey also makes this list (.036 over performance vs Thomas .067) as does Jeimer (.028).

Among underachievers, Trea is 6th (-.040) and Ruiz is 12th (-.039). Ruiz's OPS is .086 below his ZiPS expected OPS, while our Luis Garcia was .099.

Thomas is 3rd in BBs below projection (-12.1) and second Ks more than projection (27.1).

Take Thomas's projections with some salt. He was also flagged as a BABIP overperformer on this system after the first two months, and the gap only widened. 

[Slateman]

Since being declared at LHP only platoon bat, Lane Thomas has hit .275/.329/.522 against righties

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

What to do with Lane Thomas is very interesting.  Obviously 2 OF spots at some point next year, if not out of camp, are reserved for Crews and Wood.  Beyond that, some of our other best prospects happen to be OF as well, although none of them are locks to be ready and capable next year.  Hassell could be, although he's struggled this year.  Lile has moved fast.  Green and Vaquero are a long ways off.  Then you have Stone Garrett.  Coming off an injury, and with only a short track record of performing well, do you leave an opening for him as a regular next year and see if he's a long-term piece or potential trade bait? 

Rizzo didn't like the potential returns for Lane at the deadline.  If Lane finishes the year strong and continues to also hit righties, is Rizzo then able to get an offer that he likes?  This team should now be pushing to build a competitive big league roster, so trading your best hitter for a developmental prospect is hard to justify.  You want to get back another younger guy that helps in an area of need with multiple years of team control.  We don't have a long-term sure thing at 2B or 1B, although I think Morales has a good shot at 1B as soon as sometime next year, and Lipscomb could be the 2B of the future.  Trading Thomas for a bullpen arm, as volatile as they are, doesn't seem like a good return. 

I'd target a young SP with multiple years of team control left ready to step into the rotation immediately.  I don't think we'd get the equivalent of Gray or Gore back from another team, but maybe a slightly lower tier below them? 

I really like Lane, and we could just ride out his remaining arbitration years in 2024 and 2025 and have an OF of him, Crews, and Wood.  He's going to be 30 when he hits free agency, and I just don't think it makes sense to be the team to give him the long-term deal for what should be pretty good money if he stays close to this level of production. 

We could wait until we have 3 of our young OFs solidify themselves and know that Lane is expendable, but his trade value goes down the closer he gets to free agency.  It's an interesting situation for sure.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

My best guess is that there's not going to be a premium offer in the offseason, and that Crews and Wood may not both (or either) be ready right away. I would expect Garrett to recover by the spring (about 6 months from his injury), but I'm not smart about bone healing and recovery from this injury. If he's ready, then you could see something like a Garrett - Crews/Call/Young - Thomas outfield at the start of the year, then, if Wood or others are kicking the door down, moving perhaps Thomas to a team in need. Provided he's playing the same way, the whole "Platoon Bat" BS should be slayed, and a year and half control would still command a good return. Maybe one last thickening of the system. There's also DH, and Meneses might be moved, or Dom, or ??? And if we are contending for a WC, Thomas can be kept easily.

[Slateman]

I feel like he's our Eaton. Or whatever gritty but good player thr Cards have in a playoff run

[zimm_da_kid]

The mariners have Castillo and ray locked up to money with Gilbert and Kirby as relatively proven arms as well.  Then they have miller, woo, Hancock also up and contributing at this point.  That is too many guys for a rotation.  Gilbert would cost a lot.  Kirby probably more as he has more control and is better. 

Could we get miller for Thomas?  Thomas plus a reliever?

[imref]

definitely cooled off a bit in August: .266 / .324 / .479

[JCA-CrystalCity]

definitely cooled off a bit in August: .266 / .324 / .479

It's funny how our expectations for Thomas have changed. That's still an ISO of > .200, with league average OBP and better than average average. wRC+ of 110. Guys would love slumps like that.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Thomas was derided as just a "platoon bat" going into the trade deadline and so Rizzo could not get the kind of value he wanted to move him. Well, there might have been something to that prior to August, or at least it might have appeared to be something, because his July numbers against righties were awful - .237 / .280 / .316, with 28 K% and 5 BB%. wRC+ of 62, wOBA .263, with a BABIP that was actually high - .321.

If any GM tried to shake Rizzo with those numbers in negotiations, Rizzo was sharp enough to say FUggedaboudit. Same stats for August:
.250 /.316 /.500, 32K% 5BB%, wRC+ 117 wOBA .345, BABIP practically unchanged - .325.

Streaky, perhaps, but there's a big, big jump in contact quality as he pulls less (a Davey hitting lecture):

July - 56/22/22% pull/center/oppo, 29/48/24% soft/medium/hard contact%,1.93 GB/FB.
August - 41/29.5/ 29.5% pull/center/oppo, 9/50/41% soft/medium/hard contact%, 0.48 GB/FB.

Looks like his slump against righties in July was due to hitting a lot of grounders not particularly hard, and the August spike is due to using the whole field and generating hard hit balls in the air.  Not too sophisticated an analysis, and small numbers, but it seems like he may have made an adjustment to address his "Platoon Bat" rep. 

[aspenbubba]

When was the last time Thomas hit a HR

[Mattionals]

When was the last time Thomas hit a HR

8/8.

[aspenbubba]

8/8.

Thanks. I knew it was awhile.

[imref]

Gold Glove finalist for RF! Other finalists are Betts and Tatis Jr.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Gold Glove finalist for RF! Other finalists are Betts and Tatis Jr.

[Five Banners]

Is one artificially enhanced?