Author Topic: Lane Thomas Superstar.  (Read 1815 times)

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Offline zimm_da_kid

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Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Topic Start: August 21, 2021, 05:47:53 PM »
Guzman for Roark part 2

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #1: August 21, 2021, 05:50:36 PM »
Guzman for Roark part 2
Guzman was having a decent season.  That was more First Blood and this one is Rambo.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #2: August 21, 2021, 05:56:58 PM »
From his write up on mlb.com’s 2018 cardinals prospect list

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=stl

Quote
Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45
Thomas was a top high school talent out of Tennessee in 2014 when the Blue Jays went well over pick value to sign him in the fifth round of that June's Draft. He was making slow, incremental progress, slowed periodically by injuries, when he was dealt to the Cardinals in July 2017 for international bonus pool money. He responded by having a breakout year, playing across two levels of the upper Minors and earning a spot on St. Louis' 40-man roster.

Thomas has long had solid all-around tools with plus instincts that allow them to play up. More than anything, staying healthy was the key component in his leap forward in 2018 as he had a full season really for the first time in his career. He has a simple approach at the plate and was able to tap into the raw power he'd shown since high school by standing a little more upright at the plate and making his feet a little more narrow in his setup, leading to him more than doubling his career home run output heading into the season. Thomas has very good speed and excellent instincts on the basepaths, though he has to learn to be more efficient when stealing bases. His speed and instincts help him in the outfield, where he's above-average in center field and has more than enough arm to handle a corner spot if needed.

If things keep moving in the right direction, Thomas has the upside to be a 15 homer-15 stolen base kind of offensive performer. He might be best suited as a valuable fourth outfielder, but seeing him play his way into an every day role in center field isn't out of the question

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #3: August 21, 2021, 08:13:44 PM »
Impressive debut. At the very least, we have a lefty platoon bat

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #4: August 22, 2021, 12:19:28 PM »
I think you bring him back and let him compete with Robles for opening day starter. Loser platoons with Yadiel Hernandez.

That isn’t a bad OF. And if Robles sucks next season, not hard to find the right handed side of a LF platoon.

Offline hohoho

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #5: August 22, 2021, 01:51:59 PM »
Or Flavor Of The Month.

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #6: August 23, 2021, 07:09:27 PM »
Thomas fields, he runs, and he knows when to run. That puts him ahead of Robles, who needs to repeat AAA.

Offline English Natsie

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #7: August 24, 2021, 05:34:57 PM »
Life in the fast lane...(for now, at any rate).

Offline imref

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #8: August 24, 2021, 06:47:41 PM »
Am I the only one who thinks of Lane Meyer whenever I hear his name?


Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #9: August 29, 2021, 10:55:34 AM »
Jesse D. notices that it's now Thomas versus Robles, and Robles looks well behind.

Quote

“This guy [Robles], for me, could be a game-changer,” Martinez said, doubling down. “As we all know, he’s got the potential to win a Gold Glove in the future. When he gets on base, he can make things happen. He’s one of those electric players. We’ve got to get him going. We’re going to get him going.”

The counter is that Robles is young, no matter that he debuted at 20 and has been at this for a bit. But Thomas is young, too, and he provides a lot of intrigue. Part of that is because he is new, a factor Robles can’t control. Another factor, though, and a more important one, is that Thomas won’t stop hitting. Martinez, then, has to toe a delicate line: If he wants to test drive a fresh option in center and the leadoff spot, he takes needed reps away from Robles, who could benefit from a low-stakes September.

Or Martinez could compromise, as he did Friday, and start Robles in center with Thomas in left, batting lower in the order. What’s settling, at least for Martinez, is that he is a long way from a decision that could be made for him. Both Robles and Thomas will be around next spring training, then next season, then conceivably in the years after that. But now that the conversation has hatched, it won’t easily go away.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/08/28/loss-mets-nationals-lane-thomas-keeps-making-his-case-starts-center-field/

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #10: August 29, 2021, 04:19:41 PM »
Robles seems to be a much better fielder.  But Thomas has looked better at the plate

Jesse D. notices that it's now Thomas versus Robles, and Robles looks well behind.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/08/28/loss-mets-nationals-lane-thomas-keeps-making-his-case-starts-center-field/

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #11: August 29, 2021, 04:21:25 PM »
Dh Thomas for Robles.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #12: August 29, 2021, 04:39:54 PM »
3 for his last 20

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #13: August 29, 2021, 05:26:37 PM »
Selective reading by Slateman. Thomas is 12 for his last 33.

Of course, this does not "prove" that Thomas is a starting CF, any more than does Slate's beloved "five tools" estimate of Robles from years ago.

Here is Davey, recently, sounding as if he is puffing up Robles potential. Puffing as if he has serious doubts:

Quote
“If anybody has shown that guy [Robles] confidence, it’s this guy right here,” Martinez said earlier this week, referring to himself. “I run him out there every day and tell him every day how good he is and how good he can be. We’ve just got to keep working.

“I love the kid. I really do. And he’s going to be really good. I believe that.”

Two years ago, though, Martinez didn’t have to predict Robles’s success. It was happening in real time. In his first full season after coming up as a top prospect, Robles was a Gold Glove-caliber fielder and had a .255 batting average, .326 on-base percentage and .419 slugging percentage. The offense wasn’t stunning. But it paired well with stellar defense and felt like a stride in the right direction. He just couldn’t build on it in 2020.

During quarantine, he gained 15 pounds of muscle that hindered his production and speed. He finished the season with an on-base-plus-slugging percentage of .608 in 189 plate appearances. But even after slimming down — which did restore his ability in center — Robles keeps struggling at the plate. His OPS in 367 plate appearances this year? It’s .608 again, identical to the output that seemed like a big red flag in the pandemic-shortened season. So maybe it was.

“This guy, for me, could be a game-changer,” Martinez said, doubling down. “As we all know, he’s got the potential to win a Gold Glove in the future. When he gets on base, he can make things happen. He’s one of those electric players. We’ve got to get him going. We’re going to get him going.”

Note Davey's typical jargon when he wants to boost a disappointing player.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #14: August 29, 2021, 06:17:39 PM »
In today's game, Bob pretty much said that the good will and patience with Robles may be running out. This was in the 9th after he pinch hit and thomas was coming up. OTOH, he did not suggest Thomas was the long term fix, either.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #15: August 29, 2021, 08:54:05 PM »
I was surprised at the candour about Robles and Clay.  You don't generally hear that from the MASN booth after Dibble got the boot. 
In today's game, Bob pretty much said that the good will and patience with Robles may be running out. This was in the 9th after he pinch hit and thomas was coming up. OTOH, he did not suggest Thomas was the long term fix, either.

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #16: August 29, 2021, 09:01:08 PM »
In today's game, Bob pretty much said that the good will and patience with Robles may be running out. This was in the 9th after he pinch hit and thomas was coming up. OTOH, he did not suggest Thomas was the long term fix, either.

To compare. Keith Hernandez has praised Thomas play in the outfield and his hitting. Nothing much to say about Robles.

Offline hotshot

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #17: August 30, 2021, 08:22:13 AM »
I was surprised at the candour about Robles and Clay.  You don't generally hear that from the MASN booth after Dibble got the boot.
Had the same thought. Bob may be on the way out (voluntarily, or the opposite) and may feel freed up to actually voice an opinion not in the party line.

Teams are so thin-skinned in this regard. As if the fans are so fragile they can't handle it. And, maybe they are. I, for one, would welcome the more candid approach.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #18: August 30, 2021, 09:23:13 AM »
To compare. Keith Hernandez has praised Thomas play in the outfield and his hitting. Nothing much to say about Robles.
I think the pre-conception about Thomas was "he's a backup who's done very little lately in St L and was available for Jon Lester, so there's no way this guy could turn into a respectable regular."  I think it ignored that his speed is very good and there's no real big gap in any of his skills.  I'll take middle of the road offense with good defense out of a CF.  Above average offense over 1000 PAs in the upper minors probably says more about his offense than does his <150 PAs with St L before the trade. 

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #19: August 30, 2021, 01:42:08 PM »
I think the pre-conception about Thomas was "he's a backup who's done very little lately in St L and was available for Jon Lester, so there's no way this guy could turn into a respectable regular."  I think it ignored that his speed is very good and there's no real big gap in any of his skills.  I'll take middle of the road offense with good defense out of a CF.  Above average offense over 1000 PAs in the upper minors probably says more about his offense than does his <150 PAs with St L before the trade.


So I'm lookin at Fangraphs, and they show the following projections for his tools (first number is present value, second is future value):


Hit: 45/50
Game Power: 40/45
Raw Power: 50/50
Speed: 55/55
Field: 60/60
Throws: 55/55


Future Value: 40+


I always assumed a 50 Future Value player was replacement level. Am I wrong on that?


EDIT: I've gotta be wrong on that since the entire Top 100 is guys that are at least a 50.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #20: August 30, 2021, 01:57:05 PM »
No, 50 grade is considered average

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #21: August 30, 2021, 02:07:59 PM »

So I'm lookin at Fangraphs, and they show the following projections for his tools (first number is present value, second is future value):


Hit: 45/50
Game Power: 40/45
Raw Power: 50/50
Speed: 55/55
Field: 60/60
Throws: 55/55


Future Value: 40+


I always assumed a 50 Future Value player was replacement level. Am I wrong on that?


EDIT: I've gotta be wrong on that since the entire Top 100 is guys that are at least a 50.
50 is an average ballplayer.  He's 45+ overall, with each tool projected 50 or higher except in game power, which is a 45.  His current defensively relevant skills (speed, throw, field) are all above 50.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #22: August 30, 2021, 02:20:06 PM »
50 is an average ballplayer.  He's 45+ overall, with each tool projected 50 or higher except in game power, which is a 45.  His current defensively relevant skills (speed, throw, field) are all above 50.


Average as in average regular or average as in replacement level?

Online varoadking

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #23: August 30, 2021, 02:23:23 PM »

Average as in average regular or average as in replacement level?

Doesn't matter, even if he was above average that wouldn't be good...

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #24: August 30, 2021, 02:25:01 PM »
50 is an average ballplayer.  He's 45+ overall, with each tool projected 50 or higher except in game power, which is a 45.  His current defensively relevant skills (speed, throw, field) are all above 50.

I'm consistently mystified by scouting reports that break down most tools at 50+ and then rate the dude a 40, in line with the lowest of his ratings (and even if his lowest ratings are the most important ones).  Either you grade the tools honestly or you don't.  You can't have a dude whose game offensive metrics grade out at 40 and 45 and his defensive metrics are 55/60 with 55 speed (implying at moderate CF capability) and then give him a 40. 

The raw grades they give you when applied to the real world translate to a guy who is - right now - a plus defender in the corners and an average CF with slightly below average hitting (.240-.250) and maybe 10-ish homers, with upside to .260 with 15-ish homers.  In the real world, that current guy is a starting CF on many teams and the fourth outfielder on most others, not a 40 - which is the last guy on the bench - and the FV is an at least average regular. 

In other words, that's a 45-50+ projection when you look at what it actually works out to.  Whether I agree with their actual numbers is beside the point: their application of their own numbers to the real world is stupid.  Either the guy has defensive carrying tools (which their numbers imply) and enough offense to stick and play (again implied by their numbers) or he doesn't, in which case you need to figure out why - and adjust the scouting numbers downward.

For example, right now the difference between that scouting grade and Robles at present is that Robles would be a 35 hit tool, 35 game power, and slightly rearranged metrics defensively.  Which profiles to exactly what he is: a defensively capable outfielder who doesn't hit enough to be worth a lineup spot.  He's a 40 right now: a guy who is good to have on the bench but you don't ever want him batting.