Lane Thomas Superstar

[DPMOmaha]

Helluva return for Lester.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Average as in average regular or average as in replacement level?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/

average regular for a position player is how FG uses a 50. 

[Slateman]

Average as in average regular or average as in replacement level?

Average MLB player

[Natsinpwc]

If someone is already 26 why would he have higher future values for some tools?  Is that typical? 

[Smithian]

Even if he turns into right handed Andrew Stevenson, isn't that still a pretty impressive return for Lester?

Nothing wrong with a reserve outfielder on a rookie salary.

[Slateman]

Even if he turns into right handed Andrew Stevenson, isn't that still a pretty impressive return for Lester?

Nothing wrong with a reserve outfielder on a rookie salary.

Yes

[Elvir Ovcina]

If someone is already 26 why would he have higher future values for some tools?  Is that typical?

Yes, with offensive tools.  You also see it with pitchers and upside on secondary pitches.

[welch]

Even if he turns into right handed Andrew Stevenson, isn't that still a pretty impressive return for Lester?

Nothing wrong with a reserve outfielder on a rookie salary.

Nothing wrong with a CF who covers ground, knows where to throw, has enough speed to steal a base, and hits around .250. That's Thomas. Maybe he's not the next Willie Mays or Micky Mantle, but he looks OK.

No reason to pay so much attention to "projections" and "estimates". If projections and estimates mattered, then Robles would be a star CF. He's not. He wastes up a roster spot in the modern 25/26 man roster. Years ago, teams carried ten pitchers. In those days days, teams could carry a 7th-inning defensive replacement OF who could not hit. In those days, teams carried four starters, like Baltimore in 1970, plus a spot starter. Not now. The Nats carry about four bench players each game, so they all need to be able to pinch hit. That's not Robles.

Robles will probably alternate with Thomas for the next month, and then we will see what Rizzo wants to do with him.

[Natsinpwc]

Yes, with offensive tools.  You also see it with pitchers and upside on secondary pitches.

Ok. I thought hitters peaked at 27?  Might be a decent reserve outfielder for a rebuilding team. Which is the Nats.

[Slateman]

Nothing wrong with a CF who covers ground, knows where to throw, has enough speed to steal a base, and hits around .250. That's Thomas.

Career .230 hitter. Hitting .198 this season.
1 DRS/ -2 OAA
57% stolen base rate

Are you sure Thomas is what you're wanting?

[Slateman]

Ok. I thought hitters peaked at 27?  Might be a decent reserve outfielder for a rebuilding team. Which is the Nats.

I think its more dependant on the experience you build along with athletic capability. Just cus your 27 doesnt mean youre gonna peak if you broke into the majors at 26

[welch]

Career .230 hitter. Hitting .198 this season.
1 DRS/ -2 OAA
57% stolen base rate

Are you sure Thomas is what you're wanting?

Stop quoting selectively the numbers, Slateman.  For 12 games with the Nats, Thomas has been a respectable CF, while Robles continues to wallow. Robles deserve to alternate starts in CF with Thomas, and, unless their is miraculous improvement, Robles does not deserve a major league spot. Maybe Thomas is a 4th OF or even a starting CF.

All this season, Robles has failed: 36 walks, 85 strikeouts, 8 stolen bases, .607 OPS, 2 (!) home runs, 19 RBIs, 0.0 WAR.

Take a look at Michael A. Taylor. Way back, I suggested that Robles has been so bad that he's not even as good as MAT. So here's Michael. 2.5 WAR, 11 home runs, .246 average, 12 stolen bases, 29 walks against 124 strikeouts -- his old problem -- and .667 OPS. They are both excellent fielders.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/taylomi02.shtml

[Slateman]

Stop quoting selectively the numbers, Slateman. 

[Natsinpwc]

I think its more dependant on the experience you build along with athletic capability. Just cus your 27 doesnt mean youre gonna peak if you broke into the majors at 26

Fair enough.

[Mathguy]

But didn't Dibble refer to Strasburg as a wush ?  Carpenter hasn't come close to that level of insult

I was surprised at the candour about Robles and Clay.  You don't generally hear that from the MASN booth after Dibble got the boot. 

[Natsinpwc]

But didn't Dibble refer to Strasburg as a wush ?  Carpenter hasn't come close to that level of insult

Thought it was a wuss?

[blue911]

Thought it was a wuss?

Dibble had been drinking

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Dibble had been drinking

It was a day that ended with a "y."

[welch]

So far, Lane Thomas fields as well as Robles, runs the bases smartly, and hits.

[Mattionals]

So far, Lane Thomas fields as well as Robles, runs the bases smartly, and hits.

His BABIP is nearly .400 so his insane slash line in 82 plate appearances of .332/.406/.556 is sure to come back down to earth. Given that though, he still looks pretty productive even if his BABIP falls to league average.

[Slateman]

His BABIP is nearly .400 so his insane slash line in 82 plate appearances of .332/.406/.556 is sure to come back down to earth. Given that though, he still looks pretty productive even if his BABIP falls to league average.

When his BABIP falls, his bat will be league average for a backup OFer. And his defense is already below average in CF. We're easily bottom five in outfield defense with Thomas in CF and Hernandez and Soto in the corners.

[Mattionals]

When his BABIP falls, his bat will be league average for a backup OFer. And his defense is already below average in CF. We're easily bottom five in outfield defense with Thomas in CF and Hernandez and Soto in the corners.

Honest response here, I haven't watched him in the field (MLB app is really how I "watch") so how does he look? I see his DRS is pretty lacking and he doesn't rate with a strong arm according to those metrics, but is he not very rangey, bad routes, or just meh?

[welch]

He looks good enough. He lacks the baloney claims from Fangraphs or some other prospect-rating service from years ago, the ones that tell us Victor Robles is the next Willie Mays. He has thrown to the right bases and doubled up a couple runners. He is fast. He's OK. Does not look like a superstar, but so what?

[Smithian]

He looks good enough. He lacks the baloney claims from Fangraphs or some other prospect-rating service from years ago, the ones that tell us Victor Robles is the next Willie Mays. He has thrown to the right bases and doubled up a couple runners. He is fast. He's OK. Does not look like a superstar, but so what?

I’ve said nothing wrong with him becoming a platoon or #4 OF, but I don’t think we’re there yet.

He has shown flashes with the bat. He was ranked fastest and best defensive outfielder in Cards organization as a prospect.

If he’s healthy with new scenery, we may have stumbled onto a late bloomer. It is way too early to proclaim that, but potential is there.

[welch]

From The Athletic:

Can Lane Thomas prove to the Nationals that he can stick as an everyday outfielder?

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 04: Lane Thomas #28 of the Washington Nationals rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the first inning against the New York Mets during game two of a doubleheader at Nationals Park on September 04, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
By Maria Torres 2h ago 2
ATLANTA — A baseball skipped in the grass and cut a low arc over the head of the sliding center-fielder attempting to trap it. Had it fallen back to Earth in a spot any farther back, the baseball might have caused trouble.

Fortunately for Nationals newcomer Lane Thomas, the ricochet occurred within reach. He got to his feet, scampered after the ball, gloved it and threw it to second baseman Luis García. Travis d’Arnaud, the Braves batter whose hit dropped a few feet in front of a sliding Thomas moments earlier, was on an RBI double but Thomas’ relay arrived in time for García, positioned in the outfield grass to the right of the bag, to redirect the baseball to home plate. Catcher Riley Adams caught it off two hops and tagged the feet of Braves lead runner Adam Duvall just before he reached the dish.

The play ended the third inning and prevented the Braves from widening their lead to four runs in a game the Nationals lost 8-5 on Tuesday night. Thomas received an assist and an appreciative glove tap from left fielder Yadiel Hernandez as they came off the field.

Thomas’ recovery partially made up for the runner who was able to score when Thomas misjudged the landing spot of the ball that was scorched by d’Arnaud. The sequence also served as an example of the Nationals’ conundrum.

Thomas is supplanting Victor Robles in center field because he was steadier at the plate in his tenure-opening 15-day stretch with the team than Robles was in the 159 games he played after the 2019 World Series. But Robles is the more skilled defender. He just wasn’t the one trying to rob d’Arnaud of a hit at Truist Park because he was playing roughly 830 miles away at a Triple-A stadium in northeastern Pennsylvania.

Robles was reassigned to the Nationals’ top minor-league team last week after two consecutive seasons of poor production on offense. His current assignment is to work on his swing; he is 5-for-26 since reporting to Rochester within a day of his demotion. Thomas’ present duty is to prove to the Nationals he can stick as an everyday outfielder, or something close to it.

For the better part of the last month, Thomas has done that. He credits his stretch at the plate — he has reached base in nine consecutive games and is 24-for-76 with 10 walks — to the simple fact that he has received consistent opportunities to play. He didn’t always get those. Injuries set him back early in his minor-league career. A broken wrist limited him to 44 major-league plate appearances in 2019 and a positive COVID-19 test kept him to 40 plate appearances in 2020.

“I had a spot to earn” with the Nationals, Thomas said. “It almost gives you a little motivation. It’s just trying to worry about where my feet are at and just keep going.”

Thomas wasn’t a no-name when the Nationals acquired him from the Cardinals in their trade of Jon Lester. He signed with the Blue Jays for $750,000 as a fifth-rounder in 2014. He had been ranked among the Cardinals’ top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America, since 2019. In the last few years, his plus defense and instincts in center field and home run power helped him stand out.

But his best tools failed him while he skidded to a 4-for-36 line with 13 strikeouts and four walks last season.

A scouting report compiled by Baseball America warned of concentration lapses in the field by Thomas. Asked if anyone had ever mentioned such an issue to him, Thomas shrugged off the idea. The COVID-19 symptoms hit him hard enough that he didn’t feel like himself during the 18 games he played for the Cardinals in 2020. He told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch last November that he experienced fatigue, coughing, breathing issues and dizzy spells “that lasted as long as 15 seconds.” He also detailed the effects of weight loss and his struggles combatting it.

“At this level, it’s hard to be successful having lapses like that,” Thomas told The Athletic on Tuesday afternoon.

Getting in reps is all he can do to continue to reverse the effects of COVID-19 on his career. That’s why he took grounders from the knees in shallow center field with outfielders coach Bob Henley during pregame practice Tuesday. Teammates Hernandez and Andrew Stevenson were with him. It wasn’t a special drill. It was only meant to acclimate the players to an environment unfamiliar to them.

Learning the field earlier in the day might have been the difference between a two-run double and the one-run double with which d’Arnaud was awarded. The work didn’t prevent Thomas from making a mistake.

“It’s a tough play,” manager Dave Martinez said on his postgame videoconference. “I think he should just play it on one hop and try to make a good throw home. I think he was just overly aggressive.”

Those are wrinkles the Nationals must smooth as they figure out what shape their outfield will take next year.