Author Topic: Lane Thomas Superstar  (Read 11434 times)

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Offline varoadking

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #76: December 04, 2021, 12:46:21 PM »
Nice article.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/nationals-under-the-radar-deadline-pickup-off-to-strong-start-in-d-c.html

The Nationals are likely to take a step back in 2022...

Duh...

Martinez stepped in crap and came out smellin' like a rose.  2 games over .500 in 2018; would have had a nightmare of a season in 2019 if it weren't for an error in RF in the WC game and Howie bailin' his ass out big time in 2 other series; followed up with 2 more nightmare seasons.  Now he get's a free pass for 2022...

5 years...4 years of crap performance...and one season that was salvaged by 3 batted balls.  Talk about havin' a horeshoe up your ass...

 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #77: December 04, 2021, 01:05:00 PM »
I am a bit of an optimist about the lineup. I think we have a decent shot at league average play in at least one of the non-Soto spots in the outfield. Maybe that's left field with Thomas/ Yadi, or cf if Thomas and Robles are in a survival of the fittest struggle. We should get good play out of catcher and first. That's kind of why I wanted one more lineup piece out of FA while we give Kieboom Garcia Robles just a bit more rope to hang themselves or pull their weight. I just don't see a signing blocking anything

Offline imref

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #78: December 04, 2021, 01:31:02 PM »
We had no issues scoring runs last year.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #79: December 04, 2021, 03:13:11 PM »
The Nationals are likely to take a step back in 2022...

Duh...

Martinez stepped in crap and came out smellin' like a rose.  2 games under .500 in 2018; would have had a nightmare of a season in 2019 if it weren't for an error in RF in the WC game and Howie bailin' his ass out big time in 2 other series; followed up with 2 more nightmare seasons.  Now he get's a free pass for 2022...

5 years...4 years of crap performance...and one season that was salvaged by 3 batted balls.  Talk about havin' a horeshoe up your ass...

 
4 years of poor and injured starting pitching. One year it wasnt.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #80: May 23, 2023, 10:21:10 PM »
Now rocking an .808 OPS

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #81: May 24, 2023, 09:41:06 AM »
He's felt like the most consistent contributor on offense at least.

Offline imref

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #82: May 24, 2023, 09:44:45 AM »
two more years of control. He's been a steal so far.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #83: May 24, 2023, 10:25:27 AM »

Third, while Thomas would be a decent piece, they need a lot more offense, mainly from Bell and Naylor.

Now, if those two turn it around and start hitting, then a Lane Thomas piece makes sense. Actually, I could see a bigger deal with Thomas and Meneses going to Cleveland, pushing them to move Kwan to CF and use Straw as a defensive replacement.
i think your point 3 is the same as Clemens's point. thomas by himself doesn't move the needle enough for them.

that said, the fact that meneses and thomas are cheap might create a broader market for them in a package.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #84: May 24, 2023, 04:36:36 PM »
i think your point 3 is the same as Clemens's point. thomas by himself doesn't move the needle enough for them.

that said, the fact that meneses and thomas are cheap might create a broader market for them in a package.
I dont think the Guardians will care. Theyll make money. Then theyll trade Bieber at the deadline for a haul

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #85: May 24, 2023, 07:00:04 PM »
There is no reason to give away either Candelario or Smith, or Thomas and Meneses, for inferior players. It is nonsense to trade OK major leaguers for nobodies, for the next Jordan Barley. None of those four are great major leaguers, so the return cannot be like what Rizzo got for Scherzer, Turner, and Soto. The other players they flipped got the Nats Mason Thompson, Drew Millas, and a sore-armed pitcher who has been rehabbing since the trade.

Candelario and Smith make very little, and if Candelario wants a big contract, then maybe it is time to consider Alu. Maybe. Other than Alu, there is nobody but Brady House, down at Fredericksburg. Somebody has to play for the Nats until the superstar prospects actually star in the majors.

Why should the Nats try to play their worst team until, miraculously, they have a team to roll into the playoffs? Should the organization continue to field a team like that of 2022? Year after year?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #86: May 24, 2023, 09:03:25 PM »
really, it was hand for adams, hudson for thompson +, harrison and i think a reliever for Millas, lester for thomas.  that's not bad. really the only one of those 2021 deals that look like it' not working out is Schwarber for Aldo Ramirez, and that's mostly because we gambled on a guy who was pitching great in low minors who ended up more lame than we thought. tbh, that's awesome, especially since all those deals were for 2 month rentals.

my sense is that rizzo did enough prospect for rental deals, when we traded prospects, that e has a very good sense of what the right market price is.  i have no worries about him underselling on candy, or thomas, or joey, or williams. the only thingboutthe latter 3 is he may hold off due to more years of team control, like he dd with bell.

Offline GataNats

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #87: May 24, 2023, 11:14:20 PM »
Thomas is the only guy we need to extend beyond Abrams

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #88: May 25, 2023, 10:04:42 AM »
Thomas is outperforming his statcast expected stats by a good margin. these are based on the type of contact. you can say more contact has fallen in than would normally given the velocity, angles, etc..., but it is also fair to say that the good results are now cooked into his season line. what is cooked in is a very nice line of .293 / .345 / .462, with 7 dingers.  that's about about 20% above league average, based on wRC+on fg, rest of season projections have him league average going forward. 

been popping up a lot less than in the past, lowering his average launch angle and his fly percentage. barrels stayed constant, as well as hard contact. a small drop in opposite field contact spread up the middle and pull.

the drop in pops may explain the boost in average? maybe he's a guy davey and coles have helped with preaching stay up the middle and on top  of the ball?

I would kick the tire on offers if he sustains this for another month plus as perhaps a "short sale."  otoh, if the nats really do think they've unlocked something new with him, there's a case to think there's value that projections haven't caught yet. statcast makes me skeptical of that.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lane-thomas/16939/stats?position=OF

Offline Section214

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #89: May 25, 2023, 10:39:21 AM »
Thomas is the only guy we need to extend beyond Abrams

Under team control for three more years. No need to extend him at all, I like Thomas, but he is not a franchise cornerstone, at least not yet.

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #90: May 29, 2023, 11:17:22 AM »
Under team control for three more years. No need to extend him at all, I like Thomas, but he is not a franchise cornerstone, at least not yet.

Probably never a cornerstone, but a respectable major leaguer. My hunch: .275, .850 OPS on 20 homers. Good fielder. Good ballplayer, though not an all-star. Eventually replaced by Elijah Green, if Green improves and grows at each level. That will be years away.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #91: May 30, 2023, 07:23:08 AM »
Probably never a cornerstone, but a respectable major leaguer. My hunch: .275, .850 OPS on 20 homers. Good fielder. Good ballplayer, though not an all-star. Eventually replaced by Elijah Green, if Green improves and grows at each level. That will be years away.


Your numbers would absolutely make Thomas an All-Star. An .850 OPS is all-star level OPS.

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #92: May 30, 2023, 09:35:19 AM »

Your numbers would absolutely make Thomas an All-Star. An .850 OPS is all-star level OPS.

Maybe picked by the manager so the Nats have at least on guy on the team (skipping the new fol-de-rol with fans voting and all)

Offline catocony

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #93: May 30, 2023, 02:25:09 PM »
I've liked Thomas a lot since he was traded over.  John Lester stank as a pitcher for the Nats but getting flipped for Thomas was a massive fleecing by Rizzo.  I see him as a starter at least through next season.  Afterwards, worse case scenario is he's the 4th outfielder for a couple of seasons.  There's zero reason for the Nats to move him at all.  He's good, he's entering his prime years (27 now), he's not a free agent until 2026, and he seems to be improving in one way or another.  Honestly, he's the exact type of players the Nats could use 2 or 3 of.  Unless a team really wants to overspend trade capital on him, no way would I trade him.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar.
« Reply #94: May 30, 2023, 02:36:35 PM »
Glad to have held onto my Lane Thomas stock. One of the few players who didn't ruin me for having faith.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #95: June 12, 2023, 02:36:13 PM »
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/best-deadline-rental-returns-in-recent-history-8-nationals-get-everyday-outfielder-for-jon-lester.html

Quote
Things are going better here in 2023, as he already has nine home runs and five steals. His plate discipline numbers are fairly similar, but he’s hitting .281/.336/.455 for a wRC+ of 114. His .350 batting average on balls in play is much higher than last year’s .291, but that can’t be entirely dismissed as just good luck since his hard hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity have also increased compared to a year ago.

Defensively, Thomas isn’t considered an excellent fielder, which is surprising considering his 95th percentile sprint speed. Nonetheless, he’s capable of holding his own at any of the three outfield slots, which is useful for a rebuilding club that is rotating through various players on a regular basis. He qualified for arbitration for the first time in the most recent offseason and is making $2.2MM this year. He’ll be eligible for two more passes before he’s slated for free agency after 2025.

...

In the end, both teams got what they wanted out of the deal. The Cards firmed up their rotation as hoped and were able to make a late charge and earn a playoff spot, while the Nats turned a couple months of a veteran pitcher into four and a half years of a solid outfielder who has stepped into an everyday role.
mention that, if the rebuild goes slowly, Thomas would be a tradeable asset.

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #96: June 12, 2023, 02:59:28 PM »
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/best-deadline-rental-returns-in-recent-history-8-nationals-get-everyday-outfielder-for-jon-lester.html
mention that, if the rebuild goes slowly, Thomas would be a tradeable asset.

Or quickly?

Right now, the Nats have no one to take his place. Nobody at Rochester seems like a major leaguer. Wood and Hassell just reached Harrisburg.

Offline imref

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #97: June 12, 2023, 03:27:58 PM »
Or quickly?

Right now, the Nats have no one to take his place. Nobody at Rochester seems like a major leaguer. Wood and Hassell just reached Harrisburg.

Derek Hill has put up some pretty good numbers at Rochester. If trading Thomas means we get a solid 2025 piece and have to deal with Hill at the major league level, that seems like a no-brainer.

Offline welch

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #98: June 12, 2023, 05:24:56 PM »
Derek Hill has put up some pretty good numbers at Rochester. If trading Thomas means we get a solid 2025 piece and have to deal with Hill at the major league level, that seems like a no-brainer.

Yes. I keep seeing that Hill is hitting well at Rochester, but I remember that he got sent down after Spring Training. And that the team called up Stone Garrett when Dickerson got hurt. Hill is 27, so he's not a young prospect. Maybe he's a Joey Menesis of centerfielders, but Joey is pretty rare. And the Nats seem to prefer Alex Call in center.

I'm trying to remember what was said when they cut Hill. Was it: can't hit major league fastballs?

Offline GataNats

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Re: Lane Thomas Superstar
« Reply #99: June 12, 2023, 11:21:32 PM »
Thomas is the only position player we should keep besides Abrams