2018-2019 Offseason Moves

[Natsinpwc]

Gio
Harvey
Hellickson
Brett Anderson
Tyson Ross
Wade Miley
Clay Buchholz
Anibal Sanchez

Gio? Really?

Hellickson did this three years ago. Had a bounce back year. Got a two year contract and sucked. His ERA in the Sizth inning was 10.80. He’s really a good long reliever.

 Miley would be good. When the Yanks sign Corbin this will be their menu for the #3.

[Slateman]

Going by this. Says 3.4.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roarkta01.shtml

In any event as posters have noted you are not going to get a good starter for less than 10 million. And you will have to give someone a 2/3 year contract. They will need to ride Tanner out this year.

Bottom line is they need to sign a number three starter. Tanner will be number four. Then they will find someone off the scrap heap for number five. Fedde to fill in. Maybe they will get lucky and find someone like Hellickson. But who can pitch more than twice through the lineup.

Tanner Roark isn't good. That's my point. He's not a number 3. He's not a number 4 if you want to win this division next season. Roark is the scrap heap. He's your number 5. You're praying that Joe Ross turns into a number 4, but in all honesty, this team needs to move him to the pen and get two more starters this offseason. Use Fedde as your 6th option when Strasburg gets injured.

[Natsinpwc]

Tanner Roark isn't good. That's my point. He's not a number 3. He's not a number 4 if you want to win this division next season. Roark is the scrap heap. He's your number 5. You're praying that Joe Ross turns into a number 4, but in all honesty, this team needs to move him to the pen and get two more starters this offseason. Use Fedde as your 6th option when Strasburg gets injured.

Joe Ross is a total gamble. They need two starters even with Roark. A 4.35 ERA is totally acceptable for a number five starter.

[Slateman]

Gio? Really?

Hellickson did this three years ago. Had a bounce back year. Got a two year contract and sucked. His ERA in the Sizth inning was 10.80. He’s really a good long reliever.

 Miley would be good. When the Yanks sign Corbin this will be their menu for the #3.

Tanner's ERA in the 5th inning was 6.58 last season. He can't get through a lineup three times either. So I can pay 10 million to not get through a lineup three times or I can pay considerably less. Which is preferable?

[Slateman]

Joe Ross is a total gamble. They need two starters even with Roark. A 4.35 ERA is totally acceptable for a number five starter.

10 million for a 4.35 ERA is not. NOt when you can get either better performance or the same for less money.

[Natsinpwc]

10 million for a 4.35 ERA is not. NOt when you can get either better performance or the same for less money.

You are not going to get equal or better for less. You already listed the free agent options. It’s generally garbage. If you think Gio or Hellickson are Third or fourth starter options you are really deluded.

[Slateman]

You are not going to get equal or better for less. You already listed the free agent options. It’s generally garbage. If you think Gio or Hellickson are Third or fourth starter options you are really deluded.

Both of them are better than Roark.

[Mattionals]

The great debate over bWAR and fWAR. Offensively they are pretty close, but Pitching wise, I'd always use fWAR as it uses FIP instead of ERA. You can have a really lucky pitcher with crap peripherals who gets a good bWAR (Roark last year tallied a 3.0 bWAR) but has a worse fWAR (Roark had a 1.9 last year according to fWAR).

With that, Gio was roughly just about what the Nats got out of Roark last season. Hellickson was worse because he was hurt, but also his FIP is just around what Roark and Gio had. Given Slate's list, I'd say that only Miley and Buchholz are better than Roark. Everyone else on that list is roughly the same as Roark. Now take into account the salary Roark is projected, everyone on that list is more affordable, so the Nats could trade out Roark's salary for a lesser one for roughly the same production or better.

[Natsinpwc]

Tanner's ERA in the 5th inning was 6.58 last season. He can't get through a lineup three times either. So I can pay 10 million to not get through a lineup three times or I can pay considerably less. Which is preferable?

You forgot to mention his ERA in the sixth and seventh innings.

[Elvir Ovcina]

The great debate over bWAR and fWAR. Offensively they are pretty close, but Pitching wise, I'd always use fWAR as it uses FIP instead of ERA. You can have a really lucky pitcher with crap peripherals who gets a good bWAR (Roark last year tallied a 3.0 bWAR) but has a worse fWAR (Roark had a 1.9 last year according to fWAR).

With that, Gio was roughly just about what the Nats got out of Roark last season. Hellickson was worse because he was hurt, but also his FIP is just around what Roark and Gio had. Given Slate's list, I'd say that only Miley and Buchholz are better than Roark. Everyone else on that list is roughly the same as Roark. Now take into account the salary Roark is projected, everyone on that list is more affordable, so the Nats could trade out Roark's salary for a lesser one for roughly the same production or better.

You can also have a good pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of guys and thus looks worse in FIP.  For a guy like Roark who was an effective pitcher in the past without being a big K specialist, you really need to use both.  Roark had a 4-year period in which his actual ERA (3.01) was lower than FIP for 4 years running, and by an aggregate of nearly three quarters of a run.  That's too long of a stretch of success and too large a gap to attribute to luck, as FIP implies.

Ironically, when he started to suck, his FIP and ERA came much more closely into line, likely because his lost movement and a couple ticks off the fastball have killed the succession of worm-killers he was inducing when he was good.

[Natsinpwc]

The great debate over bWAR and fWAR. Offensively they are pretty close, but Pitching wise, I'd always use fWAR as it uses FIP instead of ERA. You can have a really lucky pitcher with crap peripherals who gets a good bWAR (Roark last year tallied a 3.0 bWAR) but has a worse fWAR (Roark had a 1.9 last year according to fWAR).

With that, Gio was roughly just about what the Nats got out of Roark last season. Hellickson was worse because he was hurt, but also his FIP is just around what Roark and Gio had. Given Slate's list, I'd say that only Miley and Buchholz are better than Roark. Everyone else on that list is roughly the same as Roark. Now take into account the salary Roark is projected, everyone on that list is more affordable, so the Nats could trade out Roark's salary for a lesser one for roughly the same production or better.

Good analysis. I’m not convinced they can trade out Roark for another and then also find two other quality starters. I have no confidence in Joe Ross or Fedde.

[Slateman]

You forgot to mention his ERA in the sixth and seventh innings.

Is kind of irrelavant when your ERA is over 4.00 through the first 5.

[mitlen]

You forgot to mention his ERA in the sixth and seventh innings.

    Don't leave us hangin'.

[Natsinpwc]

    Don't leave us hangin'.

No no. Slate said it’s irrelevant.

[Natsinpwc]

Is kind of irrelavant when your ERA is over 4.00 through the first 5.

An ERA of 4.5 generally means 3 earned runs in a six inning start. I will take that. Hellickson did better than expected last year. He will want a two year contract at least. Pass for me. I bet for Rizzo too.  They need to find a solid number three starter. That’s the first order of business. The guys on your list don’t fit that bill.

[sixthree175]

An ERA of 4.5 generally means 3 earned runs in a six inning start. I will take that. Hellickson did better than expected last year. He will want a two year contract at least. Pass for me. I bet for Rizzo too.  They need to find a solid number three starter. That’s the first order of business. The guys on your list don’t fit that bill.

Second order of business is to find a solid #4 starter.  Ross and Fedde can compete for #5.  It's time to say goodbye to the expensive innings eater Mr. Roark.  Trade him now. 

[hotshot]

I remember back in 2015 when Ross had a number of quality starts, and the Nats fan base was congratulating themselves and Rizzo on the team getting over (again, counting Trea Turner) on the Padres. Is it all injuries that account for the difference in Joe Ross then and now. Failure to add another pitch, lost velocity ???

[NJ Ave]

Gio (4.39)
Harvey (4.79)
Hellickson (5.07)
Brett Anderson (4.14)
Tyson Ross (4.85)
Wade Miley (4.36)
Clay Buchholz (4.73)
Anibal Sanchez (4.49)

That is a truly awful list, and I've put their projected ERAs up in your quote to show how awful. Not one of them is truly a better option than Roark, who is projected to have a 4.40 ERA but also is projected to have 183 IP and probably will get there. The only guys who were actually good on that list last year are injury risks who were handled with kid gloves, like Wade Miley who managed to throw 80 inning over 16 starts, which is kind of amazing. Have fun with that, bullpen! I'm sure Miley will keep giving up 0.33 HR/9.

There were also basically no people from last year's free agent class who managed to be anything other than a total disaster in the $10 million range. The only one I can think of is Jhoulys Chacin, and if a guy like that falls to us as a bargain that's great, but we still need multiple SP. At the very least Roark is a non-terrible 4/5 SP. The world champs paid Drew Pomeranz $8.5 million in arbitration last year and got a 6.08 ERA in return. Pitching is just expensive, and inning eaters have value.

I would probably feel differently if we had better internal options and weren't faced with getting a similarly priced piece of garbage off that moronic list of yours.

[Slateman]

That is a truly awful list, and I've put their projected ERAs up in your quote to show how awful. Not one of them is truly a better option than Roark, who is projected to have a 4.40 ERA but also is projected to have 183 IP and probably will get there. The only guys who were actually good on that list last year are injury risks who were handled with kid gloves, like Wade Miley who managed to throw 80 inning over 16 starts, which is kind of amazing. Have fun with that, bullpen! I'm sure Miley will keep giving up 0.33 HR/9.

There were also basically no people from last year's free agent class who managed to be anything other than a total disaster in the $10 million range. The only one I can think of is Jhoulys Chacin, and if a guy like that falls to us as a bargain that's great, but we still need multiple SP. At the very least Roark is a non-terrible 4/5 SP. The world champs paid Drew Pomeranz $8.5 million in arbitration last year and got a 6.08 ERA in return. Pitching is just expensive, and inning eaters have value.

I would probably feel differently if we had better internal options and weren't faced with getting a similarly priced piece of garbage off that moronic list of yours.

"Projected ERA"

Oh okay.

[Elvir Ovcina]

"Projected ERA"

Oh okay.

It's hard to take that retort very seriously when you're suggesting that paying Tyson Ross $10 million would be a better idea than paying Roark the same.  Neither one is worth that, but one doesn't need anything more than eyeballs to see that 2018 Ross isn't a major league starter any more, much less one worth $10 million.  He has basically the same problems Roark does, but worse and with injury issues piled on top.

[Slateman]

It's hard to take that retort very seriously when you're suggesting that paying Tyson Ross $10 million would be a better idea than paying Roark the same.  Neither one is worth that, but one doesn't need anything more than eyeballs to see that 2018 Ross isn't a major league starter any more, much less one worth $10 million.  He has basically the same problems Roark does, but worse and with injury issues piled on top.

Except the list I provided was for <10 million.

If Roark gets non-tendered, does anyone in baseball give him 10 million? No. Neither should we.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Except the list I provided was for <10 million.

If Roark gets non-tendered, does anyone in baseball give him 10 million? No. Neither should we.

Fair enough.  I think the point stands at any amount of money.  I wouldn't give Ross a contract to be a major league starter at this point.  Roark possibly wouldn't get $10 million on the open market, but that's an issue for the team, Roark, and if necessary, an arbitrator.  If the Nats don't want to give him $10 million and he wants it, don't offer it to him and take him to arbitration, then see who's right.

[NJ Ave]

"Projected ERA"

Oh okay.

Oh right - instead of things like Steamer projections, maybe we should take your word for it. Why don't you go pick the best season from each of those guys and we'll assume they'll replicate it this year. 

If you'd rather go from last year - since I assume you tried to pick all the best guys from 2018 - those 8 guys averaged a 3.71 ERA and 120 IP. By all means go an get one of those guys for $6 million and hope you get lucky. But signing guys who had good ERAs in under 100 innings (Hellickson, Miley, Buccholz, and Sanchez) and hoping they hold up and stay productive for an entire season is kind of a joke.

[Natsinpwc]

Oh right - instead of things like Steamer projections, maybe we should take your word for it. Why don't you go pick the best season from each of those guys and we'll assume they'll replicate it this year. 

If you'd rather go from last year - since I assume you tried to pick all the best guys from 2018 - those 8 guys averaged a 3.71 ERA and 120 IP. By all means go an get one of those guys for $6 million and hope you get lucky. But signing guys who had good ERAs in under 100 innings (Hellickson, Miley, Buccholz, and Sanchez) and hoping they hold up and stay productive for an entire season is kind of a joke.

Probably one or two of those guys will have under 4 ERAs in 2019. Problem is guessing which ones. They guessed right with Hellickson last year. I would take a flyer on Harvey. He showed some signs of learning how to pitch with reduced velocity last season. I see no reason to move on from Roark. He is not terrible. You under pay these guys for a few years and then you overpay. That’s how it works.

[Natsinpwc]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/offseason-outlook-washington-nationals-8.html