Cord Cutting

[HalfSmokes]

Eh, maybe. I'm sure they'll put together a good product. There are so many networks trying to go this route I have a hard time seeing many of them surviving. I just don't know how many people are gonna be able to afford them all. Disney may have the best chance of lasting, and I still think the future is streaming, but I think it ends up back someplace that can consolidate all the content in one place.

Disney owns Fox, abc, ESPN, pixar, nat geo, marvel, Lucas... so they can win the content game if they want to.  The app itself well designed (they bought mlbam and it seems like it payed off). If you want stuff in one place, amazon and Apple TV offer subscriptions to additional channels- so maybe that’s the way it goes. I think it gets more fragmented before it gets better with all the big studios pulling back their rights a deals expire so that they can launch their own services

[UMDNats]

Disney basically owns over half of entertainment in this country, so it's safe to say that they'll be our overloads completely one day.

[nfotiu]

There's already consolidation happening. Disney+ has packages with Hulu and/or ESPN+. I have a Hulu and Spotify package. Most of these networks know their standalone services won't sustain themselves, it's all just a way for networks and studios to buy back the rights to their crap so they get a bigger cut when we eventually go back to a cable-like system in streaming.

There's too many platforms to make it financially smart to cord-cut anymore if you consume a lot of TV IMO. I don't watch much beyond sports and re-runs of a few shows so YoutubeTV + Hulu is all I need, though my GF got Disney+ and I'm sure I'll watch the new star wars show on it.

Disney is doing it right by releasing so many original shows on it, of course they have plenty to draw people in but knowing there's a years-long plan of original content around the most popular franchises in the world makes it a slam dunk to be successful.

Remember when Netflix Originals were good? I wonder how long they'll try to milk the Stranger Things popularity.  Eventually I think Netflix merges with someone like Hulu. Maybe not soon, but I don't see how Netflix is sustainable.

Disney + is the first major move of going away from the bundle to direct to consumer.   Eventually ESPN's high profile content will end up on ESPN+, and most everything will be available on a direct to consumer service, and the need for a service like You Tube TV will disappear.   Then you have that $50 freed up to spread among the original content services you feel are worth paying for.   I suspect most people will have about 3-5 of the major services and will be looking at less than $50 a month for all their TV needs and wants.

[HalfSmokes]

Disney + is the first major move of going away from the bundle to direct to consumer.   Eventually ESPN's high profile content will end up on ESPN+, and most everything will be available on a direct to consumer service, and the need for a service like You Tube TV will disappear.   Then you have that $50 freed up to spread among the original content services you feel are worth paying for.   I suspect most people will have about 3-5 of the major services and will be looking at less than $50 a month for all their TV needs and wants.

That’s the future that I’m hoping for.

Sports is interesting. I pay for a cable replacement (YouTube tv now, used to be sling) because I like to watch local news while I get ready in the morning and for sports. The local news, I could probably replace pretty easily with a free app if I cared enough to look, sports is harder. Right now, I’m happy to pay what I do because I get what amounts to cable light but with a much better user experience. If YouTube tv and services like it go away, I’m not buying all of the channels I watch individually even if the price is low because it would be a pain to navigate 15 different apps to see what I want to- I’d probably just choose one or two or go without. Last year I missed the Super Bowl because the cbs sports stream sucked and it wasn’t worth the constant buffering to keep watching- it turns out the world didn’t end. I think lot of people will end up in the same situation - missing the can’t miss game turns out to not be a big deal (especially if you don’t care about the teams playing). How many people will pay for an nfl stream, an nba stream, an nhl stream, premier league, sec, b10.... and then have to navigate them individually? Sure I’ll watch Alabama/LSU, but I’m not paying for service for a couple of games a year.

 ESPN is going to have a hard time pricing itself in a post cable world though- right now they’re charging $7 a subscriber, how many of those people would happily not pay and not miss ESPN? I remember reading awhile ago that they’d have to charge something like $30 a month to be revenue neutral (assuming people who watch the station would be willing to pay), but how many people actually would pay that? It probably doesn’t help they they’re locked into some long term rights deals some of which exclude digital rights

[imref]

Disney + is the first major move of going away from the bundle to direct to consumer.   Eventually ESPN's high profile content will end up on ESPN+, and most everything will be available on a direct to consumer service, and the need for a service like You Tube TV will disappear.   Then you have that $50 freed up to spread among the original content services you feel are worth paying for.   I suspect most people will have about 3-5 of the major services and will be looking at less than $50 a month for all their TV needs and wants.

I saw a story a few weeks ago saying that the cable companies like Comcast and Verizon are pretty much done with TV packages.  They are losing money on them, sick of dealing with rights-fees battles, and are instead focusing on broadband services that are profitable.  I guess it's one of the reasons you are seeing things like Verizon giving FiOS Unlimited customers a year of Disney+ for free.

I have FiOS preferred, which gives me the popular cable channels, local TV, and the local sports networks.  Going to "Ultimate" would cost another $35 a month, so I can't justify it just to get D+

[nfotiu]

That’s the future that I’m hoping for.

Sports is interesting. I pay for a cable replacement (YouTube tv now, used to be sling) because I like to watch local news while I get ready in the morning and for sports. The local news, I could probably replace pretty easily with a free app if I cared enough to look, sports is harder. Right now, I’m happy to pay what I do because I get what amounts to cable light but with a much better user experience. If YouTube tv and services like it go away, I’m not buying all of the channels I watch individually even if the price is low because it would be a pain to navigate 15 different apps to see what I want to- I’d probably just choose one or two or go without. Last year I missed the Super Bowl because the cbs sports stream sucked and it wasn’t worth the constant buffering to keep watching- it turns out the world didn’t end. I think lot of people will end up in the same situation - missing the can’t miss game turns out to not be a big deal (especially if you don’t care about the teams playing). How many people will pay for an nfl stream, an nba stream, an nhl stream, premier league, sec, b10.... and then have to navigate them individually? Sure I’ll watch Alabama/LSU, but I’m not paying for service for a couple of games a year.

 ESPN is going to have a hard time pricing itself in a post cable world though- right now they’re charging $7 a subscriber, how many of those people would happily not pay and not miss ESPN? I remember reading awhile ago that they’d have to charge something like $30 a month to be revenue neutral (assuming people who watch the station would be willing to pay), but how many people actually would pay that? It probably doesn’t help they they’re locked into some long term rights deals some of which exclude digital rights

I think Apple TV's interface gives a glimpse of the future.  All the apps that are integrated show your next episode, new episodes of shows you watch, shows you might want to watch and promoted shows.  I expect that will be the glue that makes it a better user experience.

Disney saw the future when 2 million people willingly signed up for ESPN+ so quickly considering very little high profile content.   ESPN+ has 3.5 million subscribers already, which is probably about on par with YTTV, Hulu Live, Sling etc., and those services have stalled out in terms of growth.  The future for them is probably ESPN+ that includes real ESPN @$15, Disney+ at $10, and a bundle at $20 and I'm sure they'll get up to 40-50 million subscribers pretty quickly.

The RSNs are the ones who don't seem to have a plan.   There's no way they can get anywhere near the revenue the bundle has given them if they sell themselves standalone.

[machpost]

FWIW, MASN has been off the RCN lineup since the end of June, and neither side seems to care. I think we're going to see a lot more of this in the future.

[HalfSmokes]

The whole RSN model was based on cable providers having to carry them and pay rights fees despite terrible ratings. It was a great idea as long as there was no alternative to cable. I wonder if all of this will be enough to start seeing payrolls decrease across sports

[Slateman]

The whole RSN model was based on cable providers having to carry them and pay rights fees despite terrible ratings. It was a great idea as long as there was no alternative to cable. I wonder if all of this will be enough to start seeing payrolls decrease across sports

They'll just charge the streamers the same amount.

The amount of motion picture media being consumed has not declined, nor has the demand for it.

[DCFan]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-hit-by-technical-issues-launch-day-1254094

[imref]

I think Apple TV's interface gives a glimpse of the future.  All the apps that are integrated show your next episode, new episodes of shows you watch, shows you might want to watch and promoted shows.  I expect that will be the glue that makes it a better user experience.

Disney saw the future when 2 million people willingly signed up for ESPN+ so quickly considering very little high profile content.   ESPN+ has 3.5 million subscribers already, which is probably about on par with YTTV, Hulu Live, Sling etc., and those services have stalled out in terms of growth.  The future for them is probably ESPN+ that includes real ESPN @$15, Disney+ at $10, and a bundle at $20 and I'm sure they'll get up to 40-50 million subscribers pretty quickly.

The RSNs are the ones who don't seem to have a plan.   There's no way they can get anywhere near the revenue the bundle has given them if they sell themselves standalone.

Earlier I heard Disney is expecting 90 million subscribers by the end of next year.

[HalfSmokes]

They'll just charge the streamers the same amount.

How? Do you think people will pay for MASN streaming?

The amount of motion picture media being consumed has not declined, nor has the demand for it.

A lot of what was produced has nowhere enough demand to support it. Cable channels had to program 24 hours a day everyday, with streaming the demand for the filler content is going to evaporate

[Slateman]

How? Do you think people will pay for MASN streaming?

A lot of what was produced has nowhere enough demand to support it. Cable channels had to program 24 hours a day everyday, with streaming the demand for the filler content is going to evaporate

Yes. It'll be brought in with some local sports package, but yes.

Those filler content channels don't cost the cable companies everything. If you ordered a la carte, your bill would be similar.

[nfotiu]

They'll just charge the streamers the same amount.

The amount of motion picture media being consumed has not declined, nor has the demand for it.

The Math doesn't add up for the RSNs though.   


Viewers for MLB games are in the 10s of thousand to the low 100s of thousands.   RSNs charge between $2-$7/month to some very large markets in the millions.  For example, MASN gets in the neighborhood of $3/month from about 4 million subscribers.   How do they recover that from the 60,000 who watch their games regularly?

[HalfSmokes]

Yes. It'll be brought in with some local sports package, but yes.

The rating don’t bear that out- most people will be fine without the local sports package if they have the option.

Those filler content channels don't cost the cable companies everything. If you ordered a la carte, your bill would be similar.

They cost money to produce which has to be recouped through carriage fees. I mostly order a la carte now and my bill is far lower than when I had cable.

[nfotiu]

Yes. It'll be brought in with some local sports package, but yes.

Those filler content channels don't cost the cable companies everything. If you ordered a la carte, your bill would be similar.

I don't think there is anyway streaming rights works on a local level.   As the big players shape up to be CBS/Viacom, Peacock, Disney/ESPN+, and HBO Max, I expect a bidding war for a nationalized in market streaming package, and we'll probably have to subscribe to one of those services to stream baseball games.   These companies are going to be aggressively seeking properties that makes their offering a must subscribe package.

[HalfSmokes]

I don't think there is anyway streaming rights works on a local level.   As the big players shape up to be CBS/Viacom, Peacock, Disney/ESPN+, and HBO Max, I expect a bidding war for a nationalized in market streaming package, and we'll probably have to subscribe to one of those services to stream baseball games.   These companies are going to be aggressively seeking properties that makes their offering a must subscribe package.

The problem for sports is that the services are very aware that people are price sensitive and that there are alternatives- just hypothetically, if Netflix added NFL, but charged and extra $5 a month to cover their expenses, they may attract users, but they’d also loose subscribers and those they attracted may just drop them following the last game they have rights to and resubscribe the next season. I could see it going the way of NBA TV or MLB TV as a stand alone subscription- the question is whether or not they would generate the revenue necessary to make up for cable

[nfotiu]

The problem for sports is that the services are very aware that people are price sensitive and that there are alternatives- just hypothetically, if Netflix added NFL, but charged and extra $5 a month to cover their expenses, they may attract users, but they’d also loose subscribers and those they attracted may just drop them following the last game they have rights to and resubscribe the next season. I could see it going the way of NBA TV or MLB TV as a stand alone subscription- the question is whether or not they would generate the revenue necessary to make up for cable

I don't think the revenue is anywhere close to being there in a no local blackout MLB.TV model.   CBS just bought all Champions league matches for the All Access platform.  https://deadline.com/2019/11/cbs-confirms-it-snagged-champions-league-soccer-rights-starting-in-2021-1202783749/ .  So they obviously though they could get more from CBS trying to add value to their all access platform than by selling it standalone.

The war over content is going to heat up quickly.  The way this game usually goes, they want to build up subscribers first, then figure out how to make it profitable later, so I can see someone paying upwards of a billion/year for all mlb in market games.

[The Chief]

I think Apple TV's interface gives a glimpse of the future.  All the apps that are integrated show your next episode, new episodes of shows you watch, shows you might want to watch and promoted shows.  I expect that will be the glue that makes it a better user experience.

This sounds more or less like Roku to me.

[nats2playoffs]

Comcast/Xfinity moved Turner Classic Movies (TCM) to a Sports Entertainment Package for $9.99 per month - also known as More Sports & Entertainment in some areas - and is no longer included with other packages.

[You cannot even see a list of what is included in the package, without actually signing up for it! Crooks and jerks...]
  

https://www.fiercevideo.com/cable/comcast-moves-tcm-to-sports-package-angers-subscribers

Regardless of Comcast’s reasoning for moving TCM, the company’s subscribers flocked to the Xfinity forums to complain. The primary complaint from subscribers has been the extra $9.99 per month they would have to pay to add the Sports Entertainment package to continue watching TCM.

[GburgNatsFan]

This sounds more or less like Roku to me.

Remember how YouTube TV looked? Maybe it's more like that?

[The Chief]

Remember how YouTube TV looked? Maybe it's more like that?

Yeah it sounds a bit more "fancy" but the general idea of having apps for channels, searching for and tracking shows across all available apps/services, etc. is what Roku does, and I have to say it's extremely nice.  I'll never buy into an Apple ecosystem so I haven't bothered checking it out, but I'm all for the trend in that direction.  Of course you still end up needing to buy one or more "bundled" services to use most of this stuff to its potential, so the illusion of choice may be just that, but hey...  it's better than old-school cable for now, so I'm gonna make hay while the sun shines.

[GburgNatsFan]

Yeah it sounds a bit more "fancy" but the general idea of having apps for channels, searching for and tracking shows across all available apps/services, etc. is what Roku does, and I have to say it's extremely nice.  I'll never buy into an Apple ecosystem so I haven't bothered checking it out, but I'm all for the trend in that direction.  Of course you still end up needing to buy one or more "bundled" services to use most of this stuff to its potential, so the illusion of choice may be just that, but hey...  it's better than old-school cable for now, so I'm gonna make hay while the sun shines.

More and more like your avi all the time. Pretty soon you'll move to Florida, pull your pants up over your chest, and complain about the government full time. Kinda like VaRK.

[The Chief]

Get off my lawn before I sic muh dog on yer!

[HalfSmokes]

If I’m paying roku/Apple for a box and then I buy channels who get a cut of my subscription money from Roku/Apple who combine the channels into a guide, it’s sounds a lot like roku/Apple is my new cable provider