What to trade?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Really? Rizzo already offered up Robles for Chris Sale. Offering him up for 2+ years of a top 3 catcher in baseball isn't really a reach.
because Realmuto is worth more.

When he offered Robles, he wasn't a top 5 prospect and had not had a good MLB debut.  Yoan Moncada was worth more.

[Slateman]

Robles is a grade-65 prospect. According to the data (at least Fangraphs most recent data) that's worth $70 million. Realmuto will make something like $15 million over the next two years, maybe. So is Realmuto worth $85 million to the Nationals over the next 2+ seasons?

Maybe you could make that argument, if we were cruising to another division title and we had below-replacement level C. But 4.5 games back of the second wild card?

Realmuto is a 6+ WAR catcher. Given that the going rate for WAR is over 7 million per, Realmuto is easily worth 85 million.

The level to which most here are undervaluing Realmuto doing what he's doing at the catcher position is, frankly, stupify. Since 2000, there are five catchers who have achieved 6+ WAR seasons. Two of them will be in the HoF. One likely will get in. Of the other two, one of them won a MVP that season, and the other was Jonathan Lucroy's 2014 season, where he hit .301/.373/.465. Even with arbitration, Realmuto won't get anywhere near Posey's number.

Furthermore, you want to talk about how catcher's don't last long. Fine. Move him to first. His wRC+ would be 5th at first. OPS would be 5th too. And those numbers would improve if he got out of the Marlins park.

The Marlins know what they have. Accepting anything less than at least one 60+ prospect and a couple others in the 45-55 range would be stupid on their part.

[Briggs]

IMO- Trading Robles smells of desperation on Rizzo's part.

[Slateman]

When he offered Robles, he wasn't a top 5 prospect and had not had a good MLB debut.  Yoan Moncada was worth more.

But people were saying Robles was untouchable back then. Sorry, but twice now Rizzo has been willing to cough up Robles in a trade. He's not untouchable.

You can bet your sweet ass if the Mets come calling and ask for Robles for deGrom or Syndergaard, Rizzo would sprint to a phone to agree to the trade.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

As for the bullpen pieces, I think the Red Sox are in the market for bullpen help.  They are also reportedly far enough over the max lux threshold that there really isn't hope to not trigger max penalties.  That means they might be willing to take on salary.  Despite a not good year in spot play, I would still love to pry Blake Swihart from the Sox and give him some regular starts at catcher.  They also have some B/C types like Sam Travis who could be helpful.  Something like Herrera for Swihart and Travis would interest me from both perspectives.

[Slateman]

As for the bullpen pieces, I think the Red Sox are in the market for bullpen help.  They are also reportedly far enough over the max lux threshold that there really isn't hope to not trigger max penalties.  That means they might be willing to take on salary.  Despite a not good year in spot play, I would still love to pry Blake Swihart from the Sox and give him some regular starts at catcher.  They also have some B/C types like Sam Travis who could be helpful.  Something like Herrera for Swihart and Travis would interest me from both perspectives.

Lot of teams will be in the mix for a guy like Herrera. Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, and Dodgers have all been linked to bullpen arms.

[NJ Ave]

While I'm firmly in the "don't trade Robles for Realmuto" camp, I don't think making that move would be an act of desperation.  Rather, it would arguably give us the best chance to win in the next two years, at the expense of losing a guy who would be a top contributor for the next seven.

Not disagreeing with you, but I do disagree that our "best chance" is a "really good chance" of winning. We have poor odds this year, and could really have poor odds next year, depending on whether or not we can replace a LOT of positions. Right now we're losing 2 in our rotation, without prospects on the horizon who can replace them really. We're losing Adams who's been a big contributor. We're losing Bryce. We're losing Murphy. We're losing bullpen pieces.

So unless there's a good argument for why 2019 will be magically different than this year with a team that on paper looks worse, then why does it matter if you have Realmuto?

[UMDNats]

If we're 4.5 games back of the second wildcard and Rizzo trades a top 10 prospect for Realmuto, we will officially have entered the part of the curve where the GM thinks he's getting fired when the team collapses and starts mortgaging the team's future to buy himself another year.

I mean can you imagine the Braves trading Acuna for a SP? And they're actually the team who's 4.5 games up!

Just desperation.

Shades of Erat for Forsberg IMO.

[NJ Ave]

Realmuto is a 6+ WAR catcher.

Realmuto has 3.7 fWAR and 3.8 fWAR, and has yet to have a 4-win season. It seems pretty silly to say "well yeah, but if he never gets injured" - I mean he's a C.

[NJ Ave]

Shades of Erat for Forsberg IMO.

BINGO.

[Slateman]

Not disagreeing with you, but I do disagree that our "best chance" is a "really good chance" of winning. We have poor odds this year, and could really have poor odds next year, depending on whether or not we can replace a LOT of positions. Right now we're losing 2 in our rotation, without prospects on the horizon who can replace them really. We're losing Adams who's been a big contributor. We're losing Bryce. We're losing bullpen pieces.

So unless there's a good argument for why 2019 will be magically different than this year with a team that on paper looks worse, then why does it matter if you have Realmuto?

Losing Bryce will become addition by subtraction. Frankly, so will Gio.

Rizzo has never struggled to find bullpen pieces. I'm not worried about that.

The bigger question is will ownership let Rizzo have a bad season, and still let him spend money. Because next year's class has a lot of promise, and isn't completely filled with early 30s players who will be washed up within a season or two.

Corbin could go a long way to replacing Gio in the rotation, and we have Joe Ross who has shown he's good enough to be a number 5 starter. Fixing catcher could be a bigger issue, but Grandal will likely be available for 12-14 million aav. So now you need to worry about replacing Murphy, which, frankly, will not be possible. So do you want to let Difo take a shot at 2nd, hoping his defense will make up for the drop off in hitting, or try and get someone else?

The point is it really wouldn't take much to have a competitive team next season, if Rizzo is allowed to control the process.

[NJ Ave]

I'm not really interested in Slate - patron saint of "window closes in 2018" - deciding to argue the other side for sport.

[Slateman]

Realmuto has 3.7 fWAR and 3.8 fWAR, and has yet to have a 4-win season. It seems pretty silly to say "well yeah, but if he never gets injured" - I mean he's a C.

You can say that about any player. When was the last time Bryce got through a season healthy? Happened once his entire career here.

Realmuto played the most number of games amongst catchers last season. Was 5th in 2016.

Robles has already spent more time on the disabled list.

[NJ Ave]

You can say that about any player. When was the last time Bryce got through a season healthy? Happened once his entire career here.

Realmuto played the most number of games amongst catchers last season. Was 5th in 2016.

Robles has already spent more time on the disabled list.

Right, I also don't say they are X-win players when X is 50% more WAR than they've ever put up in a season.

[Slateman]

Right, I also don't say they are X-win players when X is 50% more WAR than they've ever put up in a season.

That's what he's on pace for.

[NJ Ave]

That's what he's on pace for.

Winston Wolf had a pretty good phrase for situations like this.

[Expos]

Losing Bryce will become addition by subtraction. Frankly, so will Gio.

Rizzo has never struggled to find bullpen pieces. I'm not worried about that.

The bigger question is will ownership let Rizzo have a bad season, and still let him spend money. Because next year's class has a lot of promise, and isn't completely filled with early 30s players who will be washed up within a season or two.

Corbin could go a long way to replacing Gio in the rotation, and we have Joe Ross who has shown he's good enough to be a number 5 starter. Fixing catcher could be a bigger issue, but Grandal will likely be available for 12-14 million aav. So now you need to worry about replacing Murphy, which, frankly, will not be possible. So do you want to let Difo take a shot at 2nd, hoping his defense will make up for the drop off in hitting, or try and get someone else?

The point is it really wouldn't take much to have a competitive team next season, if Rizzo is allowed to control the process.

DJ LeMahieu is a free agent.

[Slateman]

DJ LeMahieu is a free agent.

30 years old and hitting .278/.324/.430. Maybe he bounces back but I'm not sure I want to bet big money on that.

[Greg_SRT]

I got to be honest, if you think that they can't turn it around this year then you should know that simply replacing a few in this lineup isn't enough.

Our 4 best hitters in the lineup currently are Soto, Eaton, Adams, and Rendon.

The first 3 are guys who haven't played a full season here. And Rendon isn't phased by any situation it seems.

Sorry I don't think it's simple chance. Eaton, Soto, and Adams haven't picked up the bad habits. And Rendon seems to be immune to the bull crap.

I think if you are selling, then really sell. Get the guys who seem to crumble under pressure or when times are tough off this team.

[UMDNats]

If we don't make a trade today, I think we stand pat. Sad. A move today would signal that we're selling and can mobilize deals faster than deciding tomorrow morning with less than a full day to finalize.

[DPMOmaha]

I think I'd move Harper today. I think it's possible removing him from the equation frees up the rest. Speculative, but I buy that theory. But with so many games vs. Philly and Atlanta coming up, I'd wait til Stras, Doo and Rendon get back before I move the other pieces. They'll be moveable in August.

[DPMOmaha]

If we don't make a trade today, I think we stand pat. Sad. A move today would signal that we're selling and can mobilize deals faster than deciding tomorrow morning with less than a full day to finalize.

Depends on the trade. And it's not like they haven't been laying groundwork the past few days at minimum.

[Natsinpwc]

I think I'd move Harper today. I think it's possible removing him from the equation frees up the rest. Speculative, but I buy that theory. But with so many games vs. Philly and Atlanta coming up, I'd wait til Stras, Doo and Rendon get back before I move the other pieces. They'll be moveable in August.

Who wants a .215 hitter for a cleanup hitter? Teams looking to
Make their offense worse?

[DPMOmaha]

Who wants a .215 hitter for a cleanup hitter? Teams looking to
Make their offense worse?

There would be interest in Harper.

[Natsinpwc]

There would be interest in Harper.

Who? What team will bench their right fielder to put him in the lineup? Or DH in the AL?