What to trade?

[bluestreak]

Why hang on to guys like Gio, Murphy, Madson, and Herrera with the team only having a small chance of making the playoffs?  Trade them all and out of the middling prospects you get maybe you hit on a gem or two.  It's like the draft--the more picks you have the better the chance of coming up with someone good.  Harper is a different case--to the casual fan he is still great.  When they see what little return he would bring at this time their would be a backlash. 

All I can say is they better find a way to lock up Rendon this offseason--I can see him pressing next year and having a bad year if he is an impending free agent.

I don’t completely disagree with selling. But I don’t think that standing pat kills the franchise for multiple years as some have stated. I don’t think the pieces we have are super attractive as trade bait. No trade this season is likely to be franchise altering.

Now buying is a different story.

[Natsinpwc]

I don’t completely disagree with selling. But I don’t think that standing pat kills the franchise for multiple years as some have stated. I don’t think the pieces we have are super attractive as trade bait. No trade this season is likely to be franchise altering.

Now buying is a different story.

I just don't see why you keep guys who will be free agents at the end of the year.  If you really want them back, you can still sign them. 

[hotshot]

It would take more than Robles to pry Realmuto loose from the Marlins. Best catcher in the game for a highly regarded prospect? Not gonna happen with a one for one swap like that.

[varoadking]

I don’t completely disagree with selling. But I don’t think that standing pat kills the franchise for multiple years as some have stated. I don’t think the pieces we have are super attractive as trade bait. No trade this season is likely to be franchise altering.

Now buying is a different story.

I'd like to see us get below the salary cap and get better picks for the FA's...sell them all...they aren't doing us any good...

[UMDNats]

I don’t completely disagree with selling. But I don’t think that standing pat kills the franchise for multiple years as some have stated. I don’t think the pieces we have are super attractive as trade bait. No trade this season is likely to be franchise altering.

Now buying is a different story.

It's just a wasted opportunity. We have a god-awful farm system (that is literally only ranked decently because of Robles and, previously, Soto) that desperately needs some depth. We won't get any great prospects for any of our parts, but we can get B and C level guys (like the guys we trraded for Herrera), and a lot of them (more than 2-3). That would be huge for our depth and to have pieces to deal this winter.

Instead, we lost a bunch of guys for nothing, finish 83-79, and then HAVE to resort to free agent spending to retool rather than making the hard choice NOW.

[Briggs]

I remember after the November 2017 Caps loss to the Avalanche, Barry Trotz awoken his "flat" team. The eternal optimist in me says Dave Martinez can do the same with these Nats. However, the realist says sell.  If the team does sell - then I don't see how you can keep Martinez on a manager.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Except we knew, from years of relative success, that Trotz was a good coach.  Dave Martinez is no Trotz.

[endersshadow]

I remember after the November 2017 Caps loss to the Avalanche, Barry Trotz awoken his "flat" team. The eternal optimist in me says Dave Martinez can do the same with these Nats. However, the realist says sell.  If the team does sell - then I don't see how you can keep Martinez on a manager.

I think it depends on how much we sell.  If we just try to sell guys in their contract year (Harper, Murphy, and Herrera), we should still be in contention next year.  However, if we also unload people who have more value due to length of contract and performance (Eaton, Doolittle, and Adams), we would have a very young team that has no sights to win anything in the near future.

If the former, you try to win.  Unless a proven manager is available (and cheap), you keep Martinez hoping he improves with experience.  If the latter, we might as well keep Martinez since he's cheaper than a 5 dollar foot long.

[UMDNats]

I remember after the November 2017 Caps loss to the Avalanche, Barry Trotz awoken his "flat" team. The eternal optimist in me says Dave Martinez can do the same with these Nats. However, the realist says sell.  If the team does sell - then I don't see how you can keep Martinez on a manager.

Trotz had 20 years of experience and a track record and also November is the 2nd month of the season. We're past Game 100!

[Slateman]

I don’t completely disagree with selling. But I don’t think that standing pat kills the franchise for multiple years as some have stated. I don’t think the pieces we have are super attractive as trade bait. No trade this season is likely to be franchise altering.

Now buying is a different story.

This is the Nats opportunity to build up some depth that will be used later for trades we need.

Given what Rizzo has done with international money, I'd be more than happy to trade some of our expiring deals for international slot money.

[catocony]

I'd like to see us get below the salary cap and get better picks for the FA's...sell them all...they aren't doing us any good...

You keep saying this, but I don't think you understand how the MLB cap works. 

[bluestreak]

Bowden reports that Marlins rejected Spencer Kieboom and Robles for Realmuto

[Slateman]

Bowden reports that Marlins rejected Spencer Kieboom and Robles for Realmuto

Bowden is usually wrong. However, if that's true, they're pretty dumb.

Also, if that's true, that's the second time Rizzo has tried to trade Robles in the last two years. Please don't tell me that prospects are untouchable.

[Slateman]

Trade Harper. He's kind of gotten better and that might be enough. The Diamondbacks could use another OFer. Harper for Duplantier would be ideal, but I'd settle for Tabor or Robinson.

[Ray D]

Bowden reports that Marlins rejected Spencer Kieboom and Robles for Realmuto

Bowden's full of crap. Nats would never make that offer and Marlins would never reject it.

[bluestreak]

Bowden's full of crap. Nats would never make that offer and Marlins would never reject it.

Is it really that over the top? It’s Spencer, not Carter...

[hotshot]

Bowden's full of crap. Nats would never make that offer and Marlins would never reject it.

I'd reject it if I were the Marlins. That's basically Robles for Realmuto. A top prospect for the best catcher in MLB, who will be under contract for, what, another couple years? Robles could be Goodwin or Michael A.

[Natsinpwc]

I'd reject it if I were the Marlins. That's basically Robles for Realmuto. A top prospect for the best catcher in MLB, who will be under contract for, what, another couple years? Robles could be Goodwin or Michael A.

Robles will be under control for even more years. And not likely to break down as fast as catchers do nowadays. What do they have to lose? They are not going anywhere with Realmuto.

[Slateman]

Bowden's full of crap. Nats would never make that offer and Marlins would never reject it.

Really? Rizzo already offered up Robles for Chris Sale. Offering him up for 2+ years of a top 3 catcher in baseball isn't really a reach.

Robles will be under control for even more years. And not likely to break down as fast as catchers do nowadays. What do they have to lose? They are not going anywhere with Realmuto.

because Realmuto is worth more. They don't need to shed payroll and they have all the leverage in a trade until next  year's deadline.

[NJ Ave]

If we're 4.5 games back of the second wildcard and Rizzo trades a top 10 prospect for Realmuto, we will officially have entered the part of the curve where the GM thinks he's getting fired when the team collapses and starts mortgaging the team's future to buy himself another year.

I mean can you imagine the Braves trading Acuna for a SP? And they're actually the team who's 4.5 games up!

Just desperation.

[NJ Ave]

because Realmuto is worth more.

Robles is a grade-65 prospect. According to the data (at least Fangraphs most recent data) that's worth $70 million. Realmuto will make something like $15 million over the next two years, maybe. So is Realmuto worth $85 million to the Nationals over the next 2+ seasons?

Maybe you could make that argument, if we were cruising to another division title and we had below-replacement level C. But 4.5 games back of the second wild card?

[imref]

If we're 4.5 games back of the second wildcard and Rizzo trades a top 10 prospect for Realmuto, we will officially have entered the part of the curve where the GM thinks he's getting fired when the team collapses and starts mortgaging the team's future to buy himself another year.

I mean can you imagine the Braves trading Acuna for a SP? And they're actually the team who's 4.5 games up!

Just desperation.

While I'm firmly in the "don't trade Robles for Realmuto" camp, I don't think making that move would be an act of desperation.  Rather, it would arguably give us the best chance to win in the next two years, at the expense of losing a guy who would be a top contributor for the next seven.

So if we did make the trade, and say we re-sign Harper, we're looking at a 2019 lineup of:

1. Eaton
2. Rendon
3. Harper
4. Realmuto
5. Soto
6. Turner
7. Zimmerman
8. Difo

That's arguably as good as anything else in the east, except of course defensively in CF

Alternatively, you've got:

1. Eaton
2. Robles
3. Soto
4. Rendon
5. Zimmerman
6. Turner
7. Difo
8. Severino

[Natsinpwc]

Robles is a grade-65 prospect. According to the data (at least Fangraphs most recent data) that's worth $70 million. Realmuto will make something like $15 million over the next two years, maybe. So is Realmuto worth $85 million to the Nationals over the next 2+ seasons?

Maybe you could make that argument, if we were cruising to another division title and we had below-replacement level C. But 4.5 games back of the second wild card?

You get it.  Robles will be under team control for years and producing at a high level for little cost. He proved the end of last yea he could hit MLB pitching.

If the Marlins don't trade Realmuto now or in the offseason they will lose him to free agency in a couple years just when ideally they should be getting better. And by that time his market will go down. And they will get little of value. Just like the Nats now with Harper. The Marlins really need to trade him this offseason and kick their rebuild into full gear. Their price will down down some.

[miket14]

There's no reason to hold onto Harper, Gio, Murphy, Herrerra, Madson, Adams, Reynolds, Weiters, etc. Get what you can.

[imref]

there's value in keeping Realmuto to develop their young pitching.