The Bryce Harper Compendium (2015)

[deeznatz]

What do we do with this kid in the long run?  Been bugging me.  I don't have my panties i a wad like most over him leaving, because the $ he will command is simply not a smart investment, imo, for ANY team....even the Yanks.

I have two diff scenarios I think would be best.  ONe unconventional, but I think it'd work.

1.)He's 22, and eligible for FA after 2018, so he is currently locked in for 3 more season, afer which he will be 25, and 26 going into the 2019 season.  I'm sure of two things:

-The Nats would love to have him around longer than 2018.
&
-He would like to have some big time money locked up before he has to wait through 3 more years and the inherent risks that come with that window....namely serious drop-off in performance and/or serious injury.  These are real concerns that could absolutley shatter his earning potential (see Desmond, Ian).

GIven these two factors, I think there could be an opportunity for the Nats to make the best of a tough situtaion and keep the kid around for a few more years in his prime, while not commiting the franchise suicide deal that would be required to keep him here for the rest of his career (who knows....10 yrs/400 mill??).  I would float the idea of adding 4 years onto his current deal, leeping him in DC until after the '22 season.  This would make him a FA going into his age 30 year, and he could sign another mega-deal with whomever he wanted.

What would it take to get him to agree to a shorter extension like this, but still allow for the big pay day down the road?  Well, a lot...in fact, we'd have to waay over pay per year.  But, we be able to lock him up during his best years with less risk.  Say......4 yrs/180 million?  This would set him up for life right away, and he'd still get another big payday down the road.  I think this would work.

2.)Trade him.  We can't just let him walk for a compenstaory pick.  Unfortunately, it really look slike 2 of his first 3 years were hampered by youth and injury.  To make this work thoguh, i believe we'd have to trade him after.....gulp....next year.  This would give him 2 years elsewhere and as much as it would hurt to see him roll out, we'd be able to set this franchise up for the next 5-7 years with the return 2 years of his services would net.

what say ye?

[KV]

 

[blue911]

Bryce probably makes more in endorsements than any other MLB player.

[varoadking]

Bryce probably makes more in endorsements than any other MLB player.

Gio's dad used to make more...

[BeltwayBaseball]

You really just called Stanton a diva? And do you actually have a source for that Stanton quote... because I'm not buying it.

SMH. This board sometimes.

http://www.foxsports.com/florida/video?vid=429469763872
http://abc7news.com/sports/giancarlo-stanton-on-marlins-the-fire-is-not-there/668298/

He sounds like a total nag. I don't have video of the second link, unfortunately it seems to have been scrubbed because it was so unflattering. But let's say you take his gloomy boo-boo face from the first video and multiply it by 10. Especially around the quote "Yeah, it's great....still doing terrible " That's the actual quote, by the way, he didn't say "We're still doing terrible," he said "Still doing terrible," as in he was describing his mood and how he was feeling. Poor guy

We give Strasburg a lot of crap for body language and "mental toughness" but for a man of Giancarlo's size and for somebody with a $300some million contract he sure doesn't have a lot of fire himself. I mean crap you're being congratulated for being in the same company as Hank Aaron, be a professional and give the reporters something to work with, fake a half-smile and then talk about "getting back to work," instead he was sarcastic and turned to face his locker and ended the interview.

So yeah, I think he's a diva and I think he's gonna slow down if this year continues down the drain for them, he was trailing Harper badly for a while there. And if the Marlins have a fire sale or other shenanigans as they are like to do, then you will see Stanton's production plummet.

[HalfSmokes]

Bryce probably makes more in endorsements than any other MLB player.

Arod has a pretty sweet marketing deal with the Yankees

[mitlen]

Arod has a pretty sweet marketing deal with the Yankees

Kershaw does pretty well too.

[Smithian]

What do we do with this kid in the long run?  Been bugging me.  I don't have my panties i a wad like most over him leaving, because the $ he will command is simply not a smart investment, imo, for ANY team....even the Yanks.

We watch him dominate in the middle of the lineup for the next three seasons before hoping the allure of the richest owners in baseball and a competitive franchise makes him want to stay.

[imref]

We watch him dominate in the middle of the lineup for the next three seasons before hoping the allure of the richest owners in baseball and a competitive franchise makes him want to stay.

if history is a guide, you let him go to whoever is going to pay the 15/$600 million deal he'll command.  We get his best years, they get his declining years.

[BeltwayBaseball]

What do we do with this kid in the long run?

Definitely don't trade him. Make a deal similar to what you suggested, maybe a 10-year megadeal with an opt out at 30ish, like A-Rod. But instead of re-signing him let him walk and let somebody else overpay for his age 37-38-39-40 seasons.

Either that or break the bank if we win a WS before 2019 or whatever is his "opt out year", freak it, we got the ring, now let's give our town a Ted Williams figure, an all-time great and a player who spent all his years with the Nats.

if history is a guide, you let him go to whoever is going to pay the 15/$600 million deal he'll command.  We get his best years, they get his declining years.

The problem is they might be getting his best years. We got ho-hum 19-21 and great 22-25, they could get legendary 26-32, great 33-36, and ho hum 37-40. He's so damn young and his original deal was constructed so well that he will literally hit the market at the beginning of his prime, if he can avoid injury and perform as he should it's hard for whoever signs him for 10yrs+ to get a bad deal.

[PC]

I'll bet you could get him for 15y/$500m today.

[imref]

The problem is they might be getting his best years. We got ho-hum 19-21 and great 22-25, they could get legendary 26-32, great 33-36, and ho hum 37-40. He's so damn young and his original deal was constructed so well that he will literally hit the market at the beginning of his prime, if he can avoid injury and perform as he should it's hard for whoever signs him for 10yrs+ to get a bad deal.

yeah, that's the issue.  I just keep seeing him as a clone of Josh Hamilton, and Hamilton fell off a cliff when he hit his early 30's.  (I understand Hamilton had a lot of off-field issues).  I just worry that guys built like Harper don't generally play at a high level as they move into their 30's (i'm probably mindfacting).

If we could get 10/$400 today then i'd be fine with it, i just wouldn't pay 15/$600 for age 27-42.

[DPMOmaha]

This is going to be a negotiation with the Lerners, not Rizzo, if he signs long term.

[BeltwayBaseball]

yeah, that's the issue.  I just keep seeing him as a clone of Josh Hamilton, and Hamilton fell off a cliff when he hit his early 30's.  (I understand Hamilton had a lot of off-field issues).  I just worry that guys built like Harper don't generally play at a high level as they move into their 30's (i'm probably mindfacting).

If we could get 10/$400 today then i'd be fine with it, i just wouldn't pay 15/$600 for age 27-42.

That sounds pretty good. But I'm sure Boras knows that, and isn't going to let those 37-42 years go for any less than $30m a pop. The only way somebody gets Harper for less than the rest of his career is if they overpay for less, like 7/$350, followed by 9/$400 on his next contract from another team, a megadeal with an opt-out that he takes to cash in more a la A-rod, or everybody comes to their senses and realizes you can't give a player a 15 year deal. But that isn't happening

Whoever can get those 26-36 years is probably going to get a good value for their money one way or another, as long as he can avoid the dreaded injury bug, which is of course the great risk you take with all of these deals. Especially a guy like Harper...

[Smithian]

This is going to be a negotiation with the Lerners, not Rizzo, if he signs long term.

I'll take a good guess Rizzo and the Lerners have a good grasp on their budget over next few seasons as it leads up to the end of his deal.

[MarquisDeSade]

EXTEND HIM NOW - $1B over 15 years should do it.

[whytev]

What do we do with this kid in the long run?  Been bugging me.  I don't have my panties i a wad like most over him leaving, because the $ he will command is simply not a smart investment, imo, for ANY team....even the Yanks.

I have two diff scenarios I think would be best.  ONe unconventional, but I think it'd work.

1.)He's 22, and eligible for FA after 2018, so he is currently locked in for 3 more season, afer which he will be 25, and 26 going into the 2019 season.  I'm sure of two things:

-The Nats would love to have him around longer than 2018.
&
-He would like to have some big time money locked up before he has to wait through 3 more years and the inherent risks that come with that window....namely serious drop-off in performance and/or serious injury.  These are real concerns that could absolutley shatter his earning potential (see Desmond, Ian).

GIven these two factors, I think there could be an opportunity for the Nats to make the best of a tough situtaion and keep the kid around for a few more years in his prime, while not commiting the franchise suicide deal that would be required to keep him here for the rest of his career (who knows....10 yrs/400 mill??).  I would float the idea of adding 4 years onto his current deal, leeping him in DC until after the '22 season.  This would make him a FA going into his age 30 year, and he could sign another mega-deal with whomever he wanted.

What would it take to get him to agree to a shorter extension like this, but still allow for the big pay day down the road?  Well, a lot...in fact, we'd have to waay over pay per year.  But, we be able to lock him up during his best years with less risk.  Say......4 yrs/180 million?  This would set him up for life right away, and he'd still get another big payday down the road.  I think this would work.

2.)Trade him.  We can't just let him walk for a compenstaory pick.  Unfortunately, it really look slike 2 of his first 3 years were hampered by youth and injury.  To make this work thoguh, i believe we'd have to trade him after.....gulp....next year.  This would give him 2 years elsewhere and as much as it would hurt to see him roll out, we'd be able to set this franchise up for the next 5-7 years with the return 2 years of his services would net.

what say ye?

1) Not possible.  You don't sign a short-term deal when you're basically the youngest free agent ever.

2) No.  We earned this by finishing dead last.  You gotta ride this out.  He'll be worth more than a draft pick, but nothing is forever.  Offer him a competitive deal that doesn't hurt the team, and tip your hat if the Yankees outbid you.

[whytev]

if history is a guide, you let him go to whoever is going to pay the 15/$600 million deal he'll command.  We get his best years, they get his declining years.

It can be argued that because he is so young, he could peak after he leaves us.

We'll definitely get better value though.

[PC]

It can be argued that because he is so young, he could peak after he leaves us.

We'll definitely get better value though.

No.  You never get better value for losing the best player of a generation, before he hits his prime.  You just become a much worse team.

[whytev]

No.  You never get better value for losing the best player of a generation, before he hits his prime.  You just become a much worse team.

I'll bet you $100 he puts up more WAR/$ this year than he does in the first year of his new contract after becoming a free agent.

Yeah, that's what I thought.

[spidernat]

[HalfSmokes]

I'll bet you $100 he puts up more WAR/$ this year than he does in the first year of his new contract after becoming a free agent.

Yeah, that's what I thought.

All that assumes there is some war market where you can actually put an 8 war player in your cart player then go to checkout - the reality is closer to wanting a certain porshe, going to an auction knowing only one or two will be up for auction and having to bid what it takes if you want one, otherwise, you don't get your porshe - you may not overpay and you may stick to your guns on $/war, but Harper isn't a fungible commodity

[whytev]

All that assumes there is some war market where you can actually put an 8 war player in your cart player then go to checkout - the reality is closer to wanting a certain porshe, going to an auction knowing only one or two will be up for auction and having to bid what it takes if you want one, otherwise, you don't get your porshe - you may not overpay and you may stick to your guns on $/war, but Harper isn't a fungible commodity

Didn't make that claim. My statement still rings true.

[PC]

Didn't make that claim. My statement still rings true.

No it doesn't.  HalfSmokes is dead right.

There is no replacement for Bryce Harper.  The money you save will make you worse.

[BeltwayBaseball]

There is no replacement for Bryce Harper.  The money you save will make you worse.

This is the thing right here, no amount of competitive draft picks or what have you will ever make up for Bryce Harper, or the money you save not signing him. He's like three players' production in one, he compresses the production of three spots in a lineup into one guy. The only thing that would make up for him would be the compensatory draft pick being Mickey Mantle III, which is pretty damn unlikely. Harper is truly a generational talent, or at least will be if he stays healthy and continues as is.