2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing

[Evolution33]

mlbtraderumors.com says the Cubs are close to signing Sheets for 2 years at $10-12 million guaranteed plus incentives.

the Cubs really need to get over their fetish with when healthy pitching. Prior, Wood, Harden, and now Sheets.

[Minty Fresh]

Sheets doesn't seem like a Rizzo guy to me.

I agree with this. 

I think the likelihood of us signing him is nil, but that doesn't mean I don't want it to happen.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

the Cubs really need to get over their fetish with when healthy pitching. Prior, Wood, Harden, and now Sheets.

Evol - a man of few words, but spot on when he uses them.  Excellent snark.

[Lintyfresh85]

The blob says the Nats are eyeing Adam Kennedy.

washingnats
The #Nationals have interest in 2B Adam Kennedy. I'll have more on nationals.com.

Could do worse.

[sportsfan882]

decent. how is he defensively?

are we really in the market for a 34 year old second baseman? does he fit our need?

[ronnynat]

The blob says the Nats are eyeing Adam Kennedy.

Could do worse.

I like him as a bench player. He didn't do well defensively last year, but he was always solid before that.

[epic_phalanx]

I can see that UZR hates Kennedy, but I'd still prefer him to Guzman, because of his secondary skills at the dish. Guzman's skill set (no walks, no power) is prone to boom or bust streaks based on BABIP fluctuations. Guzman looks untradeable (otherwise he'd be gone by now) but Rizzo could have something up his sleeve.

[Lintyfresh85]

I thought Boston claimed him from waivers last year but the Nats said no?

[Evolution33]

I can see that UZR hates Kennedy, but I'd still prefer him to Guzman, because of his secondary skills at the dish. Guzman's skill set (no walks, no power) is prone to boom or bust streaks based on BABIP fluctuations. Guzman looks untradeable (otherwise he'd be gone by now) but Rizzo could have something up his sleeve.

I just read in the O-Dog thread that UZR doesn't like him either. Is there a free agent second baseman that UZR does like?

[Lintyfresh85]

FLop

Who's only been good for this year; he's sucked for pretty much every year.

[Evolution33]

FLop

Who's only been good for this year; he's sucked for pretty much every year.

So, what this tells me is we need to pull out a couple other defensive stats or metrics because we aren't getting the full story from UZR. I also think that UZR since it is measured in runs over or above a level then that level is probably a replacement level player, and for some positions like left field and even possibly middly infield positions a replacement player's defense is better than a regular.

[HalfSmokes]

So, what this tells me is we need to pull out a couple other defensive stats or metrics because we aren't getting the full story from UZR. I also think that UZR since it is measured in runs over or above a level then that level is probably a replacement level player, and for some positions like left field and even possibly middly infield positions a replacement player's defense is better than a regular.

actually its weighted against the average player not a replacement player

As you will see, UZR rate is really a by-product of UZR runs, and UZR runs is the heart of the UZR system. It represents the value of a fielder's performance expressed as runs saved or cost, in comparison to an average fielder (actually in comparison to the mean performance of all fielders) at that position, in that player's league, and during that particular year.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-14_0/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I can see that UZR hates Kennedy, but I'd still prefer him to Guzman, because of his secondary skills at the dish.

His UZR was bad last year, but historically he's been a good 2d baseman.  positive most of his career.  Mitchell (or is it Michael) Lichtman, who I think came up with UZR or at least the one on Fangraphs, is pretty adamant about not putting too much faith in one year UZR.  Standard thinking is that you need 3 years of data. I would not expect Kennedy to be a star glove due to his age and likely decline from his career average, but he should be average at least.  As for Flop, I'd be skeptical that his true level has been established by one year of good defense. Physically, though, he looks like he should be able to field when his head is in the game.

[sportsfan882]

Boz: Within the last week Nats thought they were close to trade for major league ready SP of Zimmermann quality but other team backed out.

damn

[Lintyfresh85]

I'm guessing Desmond was going to be on the move.

[I can Throw]

I don't think they would have gotten MLB ready pitcher for Desmond, more likely Willingham or Guzman.

[sportsfan882]

I agree. Definitely Willingham

[sportsfan882]

Boz: I'm learning new lesson about Nats. Don't underestimate them anymore. Aim 1 notch higher instead of, as in past, at least 1 notch lower

Boz: Now, free agents are trying to talk themselves INTO getting an offer from the Nats.

Boz: The nats are just aiming higher these days. Livan or Davis isn't good enough for them, unless that's all they can get.

Boz: no longer thinking of Nats as team that aims low but 1 that, for right opportunities (Strasburg, Teixeira, Chapman, Marquis), will pay

[HalfSmokes]

Strasburg, Teixeira, Chapman, Marquis

Marquis? Its almost like the which one doesn't belong list

[PANatsFan]

Marquis? Its almost like the which one doesn't belong list

Marquis' track record makes him more valuable than Chapman or Strasburg on opening day. At the ASB that could very likely go out the window. Would you rather have Dunn or Marrero (yes I know Marerro's ceiling is rapidly approaching)?

[Lintyfresh85]

Dunn.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Are you saying Dunn:Marrero::Marquis:Strasburg?

You'd flunk the SATs.

[PANatsFan]

Are you saying Dunn:Marrero::Marquis:Strasburg?

You'd flunk the SATs.

I offered a disclaimer already. The problem is that the Nats have no elite hitting prospects. But the known quantity aspect of guys like Marquis and Dunn who are in their prime and healthy is worth a lot IMO.

Do you really want to know my SAT scores?

[The Chief]

SAT scores are totally different now, from what I hear.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I offered a disclaimer already. The problem is that the Nats have no elite hitting prospects. But the known quantity aspect of guys like Marquis and Dunn who are in their prime and healthy is worth a lot IMO.

Do you really want to know my SAT scores?

I couldn't care less about your SAT scores. :-x

Dunn and Marquis is not a good comparison.  Dunn is more valuable.