2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing

[JCA-CrystalCity]

but would you rather have 125 good to great innings + 75 replacement level innings, or 200 mediocre to good innings?

200 mediocre to good every time.

Replacement level is something you don't want to be dealing with.

I guess it's just a difference in philosophy.

IMO we already have two 200+ innings guys (Lannan, Marquis).  I'd like a frontline type which IMO Sheets fits if he's healthy; plus if he can stick, he and Stras at the top would look mighty sweet.

I'm with minty and half smokes.  Lannan and Marquis are the mid  rotation innings types we sorely needed.  I'd take a combo of Olsen and Sheets and hope to fill another 200+ innings (not too unlikely), and leave the 4 /5 to Detwiler, Ballester, Stammen, Martin, et al. 

I want big upside in my next FA pitching signing and not filler. If Sheets isn't the guy, then Bedard, or possibly Wang would be good candidates. 

Linty - there's actually some analysis that supports saying 2/3 of a season of excellent pitching plus a half season of replacement beats a full season of average performance.  Can't trace it now, but I think the source I cite too much treats that as gospel.  But note I'm not even  making that argument.  I say for this team with this roster, Sheets / Berdard / even Smoltz beats another Davis.

[Lintyfresh85]

Yes... but that's assuming Sheets can even go 2/3 of a season. I don't see him making it more than half a year (even if that half a year is spread out over the entire year due to missing games periodically through the season)

[Minty Fresh]

The Sox have quite a bit more resources than the Nats do, which makes this easier to deal with. They sign Sheets to be 4 or 5 and he doesn't pan out, they lost their 4 or5 starter. Nats sign him to be #1 starter, and he's broke by June - that hurts a lot more.

I disagree.  We are no better with Davis or Piniero as our #1, whereas we could be loads better with a healthy Sheets.  If the Sox lose a Sheets, he's likely replaced by a Buchholz who really should be there anyway. 

Our risk/reward is greater than a team like the Red Sox which is exactly why we should try it.  If I were the Red Sox, I'd be trying for Piniero/Davis/Garland to round out my rotation.

[Minty Fresh]

Yes... but that's assuming Sheets can even go 2/3 of a season. I don't see him making it more than half a year (even if that half a year is spread out over the entire year due to missing games periodically through the season)

We'll just have to agree to disagree. 

Eventually, you'll see I was right. 

[The Chief]

We need a thread to keep track of all these "told you so" bets.  Isn't Linty or someone waiting to see how Piniero does?

[Lintyfresh85]

Yes I am.

Bet is that Pineiro will have a better year than Marquis. The bet only counts though if Pineiro signs with another team besides the Nats.

We'll just have to agree to disagree.  

Eventually, you'll see I was right.  

Btw... I do think Sheets had some of the best pure talent of any pitcher of this recent generation (so we agree there) ... I just don't think he has any of it left.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

The problem is that you guys are just penciling in Marquis and Lannan for 200 innings.  It's likely, but crap happens.

[I can Throw]

I disagree.  We are no better with Davis or Piniero as our #1, whereas we could be loads better with a healthy Sheets.  If the Sox lose a Sheets, he's likely replaced by a Buchholz who really should be there anyway. 

Our risk/reward is greater than a team like the Red Sox which is exactly why we should try it.  If I were the Red Sox, I'd be trying for Piniero/Davis/Garland to round out my rotation.

It all depends on the contract - $15 million would be way too much to spend for him. I'm an LSU fan, but I think he might be too damaged for the risk. Time will tell.



Does the risk of Sheets make us a playoff team?

[HalfSmokes]

Does the risk of Sheets make us a playoff team?

Is that really the test?

I don't think even Lincecum makes us a playoff team

[tomterp]

but would you rather have 125 good to great innings + 75 replacement level innings, or 200 mediocre to good innings?

Depends on whether your replacements are "replacement" level or better. 

[Minty Fresh]

Does the risk of Sheets make us a playoff team?

To make this a playoff team, we'll need two big sticks, a real bullpen, Roy Halladay, a real 2B, a good catcher.....

[DPMOmaha]

Is that really the test?

I don't think even Lincecum makes us a playoff team

It don't think it's the test either.  If set up well, it could benefit both parties in the long run.  Sheets could prove he's healthy and parlay that into a longer, richer deal and Washington could develop a couple (SS and Detwiler) more guys without the pressure of having to win in DC right away.  With Marquis and Lannan, the bullpen upgrades and an upgrade at 2b, we're really not that far away as well as showing DC is a viable and vibrant option for future FA.  Getting a guy like Sheets allows for the possiblity for lightning in a bottle.  Without Sheets you get your young guys learning in DC, which isn't necessarilly bad, but really the only possibility for the season is marked improvement, 75-80 wins if you get some breaks.  That's great progress for DC!  But it's also less than it could have been if  you take the risk of a Ben Sheets.

[The Chief]

Sheets doesn't seem like a Rizzo guy to me.

[HalfSmokes]

It don't think it's the test either.  If set up well, it could benefit both parties in the long run.  Sheets could prove he's healthy and parlay that into a longer, richer deal and Washington could develop a couple (SS and Detwiler) more guys without the pressure of having to win in DC right away.  With Marquis and Lannan, the bullpen upgrades and an upgrade at 2b, we're really not that far away as well as showing DC is a viable and vibrant option for future FA.  Getting a guy like Sheets allows for the possiblity for lightning in a bottle.  Without Sheets you get your young guys learning in DC, which isn't necessarilly bad, but really the only possibility for the season is marked improvement, 75-80 wins if you get some breaks.  That's great progress for DC!  But it's also less than it could have been if  you take the risk of a Ben Sheets.

My hope with sheets would be that by midseason he would be healthy and pitching well and that we could flip him to a contender. He's not the long term solution, but he could give us some wins and then some long term value after he's dealt.

[DPMOmaha]

My hope with sheets would be that by midseason he would be healthy and pitching well and that we could flip him to a contender. He's not the long term solution, but he could give us some wins and then some long term value after he's dealt.

That would be a possiblity too.

[blue911]

It all depends on the contract - $15 million would be way too much to spend for him. I'm an LSU fan, but I think he might be too damaged for the risk. Time will tell.



Does the risk of Sheets make us a playoff team?

A healthy front of the rotation pitcher will allow Strasburg to develop naturally. No pressure to bring up, no pressure for him to be the stopper.

[I can Throw]

Sorry guys, phone rang - thought it was a job interview and I hit send.

With Sheets, the risk is too high for the asking price of $15 million. We need a 2B, and a secondary pitcher. At 31, with two injury riddled years of his last three I couldn't justify that money.

If he's 7-8 million, by all means, but everything I've read was $15 million was his price.  if it gets down to 8-10 million, the Cubs will sign him.

[sportsfan882]

What second baseman is available other than Hudson that we could possibly sign? Our options seem limited.

I'm sure Uggla could be had cheaply but I pray that Rizzo is smarter than to go there.

[I can Throw]

I think Hudson is it.

[Lintyfresh85]

From rotoworld.com

According to Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse, the Mets are talking to right-hander Joel Pineiro about a contract worth around "two years, $15 million."

Pineiro reportedly received a similar offer from the Nationals earlier this winter but he may be more inclined to sign with a contender like the Mets. The 31-year-old was 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 32 starts in '09. His 60.2% groundball rate led the entire league.

Well, at least Rizzo tried. That satisfies me.

I really wish the Nats would get him though.

Another mention of the Mets somehow being contenders. I just don't see it.

[PatsNats28]

we'll need two big sticks

that's what she said

[imref]

Sorry guys, phone rang - thought it was a job interview and I hit send.

With Sheets, the risk is too high for the asking price of $15 million. We need a 2B, and a secondary pitcher. At 31, with two injury riddled years of his last three I couldn't justify that money.

If he's 7-8 million, by all means, but everything I've read was $15 million was his price.  if it gets down to 8-10 million, the Cubs will sign him.

mlbtraderumors.com says the Cubs are close to signing Sheets for 2 years at $10-12 million guaranteed plus incentives.

[I can Throw]

Wow. I'm getting pretty good

[houston-nat]

"A contender like the Mets"? They're just as much contenders as we are.

[PANatsFan]

"A contender like the Mets"? They're just as much contenders as we are.

This. Imagine just how terrible they are going to be this year. Their big upgrade was Jason Bay, and re-signing Tim Redding. Yeah.