I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)

[Mattionals]

Since August 7 (11 games): .283 / .298 / .391, 4 doubles

That OPS still sucks. Unlike Keiboom and Garcia, Robles hits arb this season. His time to figure it out is much shorter than the others. He is turning into a change of scenery candidate, and there is nothing he is magically going to figure out at AAA rather than at the MLB level now that the team is no longer in contention. This is literally where he needs to show development, and he may be playing his way towards a trade. His value stinks, but if he can't make the most of things the way they are now, like how Kieboom is doing, then it may be time to think about cutting bait.

[Mattionals]

Robles has hit major league pitching before. He's only 24, is extremely talented, has already raked in the minor leagues, and plays elite defense in CF. This idea that in a lost season we should send him down to play Lane Thomas or Andrew Stevenson is idioitic at best.

Play him every day he is healthy in CF. You want to see what Thomas can do? Sit someone else, like Soto or Hernandez. Thomas isnt going to sustain a .600+ BABIP. At best he's a reserve OFer or a light side platoon bat.

This team has to figure out if Robles can be an everyday player. The only way to do that is to actually let him play every day.

Except he isn't showing signs of getting better. His clock is also shorter. Sure, 2022 isn't going to be a contending season, but he is about to hit arbitration and he is just straight lost out there. His elite defense? 2019 he was outstanding. Now? He is average, literally just average. This is one terrible "down" year for him and a lot of things need to click for him to really be a piece. Granted there isn't anyone in the minors really pushing him off CF, and I fully think Lane Thomas or Donovan Casey are not everyday CF, but neither is Robles unless it all clicks. His baserunning, hitting, defense, baseball IQ just all sucking right now.

[Smithian]

I expect him to be traded this offseason for a back of the rotation starter who a rebuilding team has lost patience with.

Think of roughly the Josh Bell trade from the Pirates angle.

[Mattionals]

I expect him to be traded this offseason for a back of the rotation starter who a rebuilding team has lost patience with.

Think of roughly the Josh Bell trade from the Pirates angle.

I'm there too. I thought maybe with the pressure off now that he would show some signs of life, but he keeps making mental blunders. His BABIP is at career lows, but he is starting to look like that low buy trade candidate. My concern is the Nats don't really have a fit at CF (again!) unless they think Donovan Casey is that guy. Also the FA market is kinda underwhelming for CF.

[Slateman]

That OPS still sucks. Unlike Keiboom and Garcia, Robles hits arb this season. His time to figure it out is much shorter than the others. He is turning into a change of scenery candidate, and there is nothing he is magically going to figure out at AAA rather than at the MLB level now that the team is no longer in contention. This is literally where he needs to show development, and he may be playing his way towards a trade. His value stinks, but if he can't make the most of things the way they are now, like how Kieboom is doing, then it may be time to think about cutting bait.

He has the rest of this season, the offseason. And all next season to "figure it out"

Also, he's literally showing development.

I expect him to be traded this offseason for a back of the rotation starter who a rebuilding team has lost patience with.

Think of roughly the Josh Bell trade from the Pirates angle.

Lol, they arent trading Robles this offseason

[Slateman]

Except he isn't showing signs of getting better. His clock is also shorter. Sure, 2022 isn't going to be a contending season, but he is about to hit arbitration and he is just straight lost out there. His elite defense? 2019 he was outstanding. Now? He is average, literally just average. This is one terrible "down" year for him and a lot of things need to click for him to really be a piece. Granted there isn't anyone in the minors really pushing him off CF, and I fully think Lane Thomas or Donovan Casey are not everyday CF, but neither is Robles unless it all clicks. His baserunning, hitting, defense, baseball IQ just all sucking right now.

He's effectively in his third season of major league hitting. At 24. Thats pretty freaking rare in major league baseball.

Robles defense alone makes him an everyday CF. The Nats have plenty of time to let him figure it out. He's not getting sent down and he isnt getting traded unless someone wildly overpays.

[Mattionals]

He's effectively in his third season of major league hitting. At 24. Thats pretty freaking rare in major league baseball.

Robles defense alone makes him an everyday CF. The Nats have plenty of time to let him figure it out. He's not getting sent down and he isnt getting traded unless someone wildly overpays.

Yes yes, we've seen the debate over and over again from you. I'm not saying a 24 year old MLB player being good isn't hard, it surely is. Most guys don't produce at 24. Right now though, you are reaching, and your reaching FAR. His defense alone? UZR has him at -0.3 or 100th overall for any player who has spent even 1/3 of an inning in CF. How about we normalize that to 150 games? UZR/150 puts him at 0.0 or literally not a good defensive CF. dRS over at BRef? Big Fat ZERO. His defense alone does not make him a major league CF right now. I'm not sure if you are being contrarian because it's your thing, or if you honestly believe that this guy is magically going to put it all together. I've drawn some parallels between him and Carlos Gomez, and it took Gomez to age 26 to really break out, but Gomez at his worst didn't look this lost.


I also don't advocate to send him down. He has to be able to play at the MLB level and with the team re-building, it makes no sense to have him learn at AAA. He does it here. While I thought it was insane to think he would be traded, the possibility doesn't seem so overblown anymore. There is literally no pressure on him anymore, he is 24 with three seasons under his belt, and he is in such a funk that his good stats still show a guy who can't eclipse 700 OPS.

[welch]

Robles has hit major league pitching before. He's only 24, is extremely talented, has already raked in the minor leagues, and plays elite defense in CF. This idea that in a lost season we should send him down to play Lane Thomas or Andrew Stevenson is idioitic at best.

Play him every day he is healthy in CF. You want to see what Thomas can do? Sit someone else, like Soto or Hernandez. Thomas isnt going to sustain a .600+ BABIP. At best he's a reserve OFer or a light side platoon bat.

This team has to figure out if Robles can be an everyday player. The only way to do that is to actually let him play every day.

This is silly, ignoring, as it does, that Robles did NOT "rake" in the minors. He had a half-season in Hagerstown when he hit .305...in 2016. He had most of a season in Potomac -- 2017 -- where he hit .289 with .872. In 2018 he had his broken season in Syracuse, where he hit .278 with .742 OPS.

Robles, as best I remember, had an OK first half of 2019 and began to slip.

So, how is Robles "extremely talented"? Sure, somebody rated him as a "five tool" player way back, and he was high on prospect lists made up in various years. So what? He is fast, but a negative base runner according to Fangraphs. He covers ground in CF, but so do a lot of fast guys. With experience, his hitting has gotten worse. Why think that he will learn to hit by going against the best pitchers in the world? They have talent and they and MLB catchers are smart. They ties Robles in knots.

Give the kid a break. Let him play at a level where he might be successful, might learn to hit, and then bring him up. Why push him to do things he can't do?



https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=robles002vic

[Slateman]

[JCA-CrystalCity]

first year of arbitration he isn't going to make a mint. 

I'll be curious how much of a look they give Lane Thomas.  He should have the speed and arm to play.  Not Robles class tools, but he might be passable enough to be a life raft for the Nats.

[Elvir Ovcina]

This is silly, ignoring, as it does, that Robles did NOT "rake" in the minors. He had a half-season in Hagerstown when he hit .305...in 2016. He had most of a season in Potomac -- 2017 -- where he hit .289 with .872. In 2018 he had his broken season in Syracuse, where he hit .278 with .742 OPS.

Robles, as best I remember, had an OK first half of 2019 and began to slip.

So, how is Robles "extremely talented"? Sure, somebody rated him as a "five tool" player way back, and he was high on prospect lists made up in various years. So what? He is fast, but a negative base runner according to Fangraphs. He covers ground in CF, but so do a lot of fast guys. With experience, his hitting has gotten worse. Why think that he will learn to hit by going against the best pitchers in the world? They have talent and they and MLB catchers are smart. They ties Robles in knots.

Give the kid a break. Let him play at a level where he might be successful, might learn to hit, and then bring him up. Why push him to do things he can't do?



https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=robles002vic

I think what you may be missing is that when he put up those numbers he was very young for those levels.  He showed obvious talent at those levels, especially given his age.  A .742 OPS in the International League (or its new guise as AAA-E) at age 21 is absolutely promotion-worthy, especially for a guy who can handle CF defensively.

And that's sorta the problem.  I can't see why sending a 24 year old with 3 years of MLB experience to AAA (or even AA, which would be more age-normal) would benefit him.  Once you've had 1000+ at bats in MLB, the minors won't help you unless you have very specific issues that minor league pitchers are actually good at honing, which is not the case with Robles.

Two of these moves make no sense. Klobosits was fine. Clay is awful.

Sam Clay is the latest in a long line of left-handed pitchers who suck and get repeated chances because they throw left-handed.  It makes me want to puke.

[Mattionals]

I think what you may be missing is that when he put up those numbers he was very young for those levels.  He showed obvious talent at those levels, especially given his age.  A .742 OPS in the International League (or its new guise as AAA-E) at age 21 is absolutely promotion-worthy, especially for a guy who can handle CF defensively.

And that's sorta the problem.  I can't see why sending a 24 year old with 3 years of MLB experience to AAA (or even AA, which would be more age-normal) would benefit him.  Once you've had 1000+ at bats in MLB, the minors won't help you unless you have very specific issues that minor league pitchers are actually good at honing, which is not the case with Robles.

Sam Clay is the latest in a long line of left-handed pitchers who suck and get repeated chances because they throw left-handed.  It makes me want to puke.

What is your opinion on moving on from Robles? I'm with you in that I think sending him down isn't going to help him. It's not like the current Nats are really much better or have higher stakes than AAA Rochester.

[Elvir Ovcina]

What is your opinion on moving on from Robles? I'm with you in that I think sending him down isn't going to help him. It's not like the current Nats are really much better or have higher stakes than AAA Rochester.

I don't see why they'd move on from him now.  There's no obvious replacement or near-term candidate to replace him, an improvement won't really matter next season, and moving on would be selling low. 

I don't think his value would get much lower if you waited a season, he repeated this season's performance, and then you dumped him as a 25-year-old reclamation project as opposed to what he is now, and his poor performance means he won't get much in arbitration.   And if he improves next season, what you do depends on how much he improves. 

[nfotiu]

Rizzo has a history of saying good teams don't count on offense from key defensive positions.   If Robles continues with plus defense in CF, what's the minimal level of offensive performance he needs to stay in the lineup?

His August numbers are probably close.   His July numbers aren't.   May was definitely acceptable.

[Smithian]

Rizzo has a history of saying good teams don't count on offense from key defensive positions.   If Robles continues with plus defense in CF, what's the minimal level of offensive performance he needs to stay in the lineup?

His August numbers are probably close.   His July numbers aren't.   May was definitely acceptable.

That is easy to say for Rizzo, but let's remember for most of a decade he had Ian Desmond and Trea Turner at short and threw money at catcher after Ramos left and center field aside from when they had Span. The team was always pretty desperate to add talent at those spots when there were adequate defensive options on roster.

I think you can live with weak bats at those spots when you have a superstar corner outfielder, but Rizzo's track record shows he knows he values good bats at every spot.

[imref]

That is easy to say for Rizzo, but let's remember for most of a decade he had Ian Desmond and Trea Turner at short and threw money at catcher after Ramos left and center field aside from when they had Span. The team was always pretty desperate to add talent at those spots when there were adequate defensive options on roster.

I think you can live with weak bats at those spots when you have a superstar corner outfielder, but Rizzo's track record shows he knows he values good bats at every spot.

leadoff hitter has always been a sore spot for us. We had a long history of trotting out folks like Morgan, Span (who was pretty decent IIRC), Eaton, Turner, etc. It seemed back in the early days the Nats were always in search of a consistent lead off hitter who could get on base and steal bases.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

leadoff hitter has always been a sore spot for us. We had a long history of trotting out folks like Morgan, Span (who was pretty decent IIRC), Eaton, Turner, etc. It seemed back in the early days the Nats were always in search of a consistent lead off hitter who could get on base and steal bases.

that was the origin of the White Whale search. Rizzo's white whale was a CF who could lead off.  Span was easily the best for a short time.  I don't count Taylor as fitting that mold, but his 2017 and Robles's 2019 were probably the best seasons from our CFs.

[welch]

He's effectively in his third season of major league hitting. At 24. Thats pretty freaking rare in major league baseball.

Robles defense alone makes him an everyday CF. The Nats have plenty of time to let him figure it out. He's not getting sent down and he isnt getting traded unless someone wildly overpays.

This is a nonsensical argument you keep making. Why is age more important than experience? Robles has now had seven seasons of professional ball: four minor league seasons and three in the majors. He shows no sign of being able to hit major league pitching. His fielding is OK, but no team starts a .200 hitting CF with a .600 OPS just because they field decently.

"Robles is only 24"??? So what? What shows he is learning to hit? That he raised his average all the way from .195 to .205?

If July was a time to be realistic about the organization and the 26 man ML roster, what justifies Robles taking a spot?

[welch]

first year of arbitration he isn't going to make a mint. 

I'll be curious how much of a look they give Lane Thomas.  He should have the speed and arm to play.  Not Robles class tools, but he might be passable enough to be a life raft for the Nats.

So far, Thomas has outplayed Robles. At the least, this shows that a player thrown away by the Cardinals in trade for a washed up pitcher is at least the equal of the mighty "5-tool" Robles.

[Slateman]

This is a nonsensical argument you keep making. Why is age more important than experience? Robles has now had seven seasons of professional ball: four minor league seasons and three in the majors. He shows no sign of being able to hit major league pitching. His fielding is OK, but no team starts a .200 hitting CF with a .600 OPS just because they field decently.

"Robles is only 24"??? So what? What shows he is learning to hit? That he raised his average all the way from .195 to .205?

If July was a time to be realistic about the organization and the 26 man ML roster, what justifies Robles taking a spot?

If I have to explain to you why age matters in player development, you're lost

[welch]

If I have to explain to you why age matters in player development, you're lost

If you lean on nothing more than your argument that somehow, as if by magic, Robles will become a major leaguer by birthdays rather than by experience, then you are not paying attention. How did this kid do it? Was it a birthday?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=willia000ber

Or this kid? As best I can tell, he had nine triples, 30 home runs, stole 13 bases, and had .815 OPS when he was 24.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allisbo01.shtml

There is nothing magical about age. Skill improves with experience in most people in most professions. Robles is deteriorating.

[Slateman]

Except Robles has less expierience due to injury and Covid.

At the equivalent point in his career, Bernie Williams was hitting .238

[Slateman]

So far, Thomas has outplayed Robles. At the least, this shows that a player thrown away by the Cardinals in trade for a washed up pitcher is at least the equal of the mighty "5-tool" Robles.

Lane Thomas is in his 8th year of professional ball and so far, his best year is as good as Robles was three years ago. Why should we give him any playing time over a younger, more talented player with less pro time who needs more experience?

[Elvir Ovcina]

This is a nonsensical argument you keep making. Why is age more important than experience? Robles has now had seven seasons of professional ball: four minor league seasons and three in the majors. He shows no sign of being able to hit major league pitching. His fielding is OK, but no team starts a .200 hitting CF with a .600 OPS just because they field decently.

"Robles is only 24"??? So what? What shows he is learning to hit? That he raised his average all the way from .195 to .205?

If July was a time to be realistic about the organization and the 26 man ML roster, what justifies Robles taking a spot?

Age largely equals experience, at least in total number of at bats.  Robles has a lot of major league experience (and overall pro experience) for someone who's 24, which is not surprising as he was playing professionally since most US-born players would still have been in high school.  Keep in mind, Robles is about 3 months older than Carter Kieboom.

But.  There's a but.  And that's that most guys his age have a lot of pro at bats...just all in the minors. For example, you can still compare him to someone like Andrew Stevenson, who was playing regularly in the SEC - a higher level than Rookie ball - at age 19.  They were teammates several times on the way up, and Robles was better - despite being three years younger.   He also turned into a better player at the major league level.  Stevenson actually had some success in small samples at age 25 and 26 despite being terrible in MLB prior to that.

And why this matters is that at 24, you still have some room for improvement: position players typically peak at 27-29, which is what Stevenson is.  You can also compare Robles to Cedric Mullins, who after his age-24 season was a career .197 hitter in the majors with no power.  At 26, he's hitting over .300 with 21 homers while playing CF and deservedly making an All-Star team.  Or Bryan Reynolds, who opened his age-24 season with zero major league at bats and now is 26...also hitting over .300 with 21 homers and an All-Star.  Randy Arozarena: 20 MLB at bats at age 24.  Now at 26 is at .275 with a bunch of power and a ton of walks, hitting at the top of the order for one of the best teams in the league. 

And that's just the age progression for three guys who were nobodies in MLB terms at 24 and now are stars right now at 26.  Who knows if Robles follows that path, but the unusual for him is he was up and successful at 22, not that he's stinking in MLB at 24.  And as for guys who were awesome at 22 and then struggled later for a bit, at least in relative terms, try Bryce Harper: he was Babe Ruth at age 22 and then...well, not so much at 24 and 25.  Now he's excellent again. 

[rileyn]

Lane Thomas is in his 8th year of professional ball and so far, his best year is as good as Robles was three years ago. Why should we give him any playing time over a younger, more talented player with less pro time who needs more experience?

I'm hoping it lights a fire under Robles.   The team sees him everyday.  Maybe there is something they are sending a signal that there is an open competition in CF to see how responds this offseason.