Author Topic: I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)  (Read 40922 times)

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Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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I'm not sure Robles's career OPS+ has stabilized.  HE had a very good first 90-100 PAs, then an acceptable level of production in 2019, but  has tailed in the last 450 PAs. We probably should have some doubt about what looked like a starter and maybe star for years back in November of 2019.



Assuming that can or will even happen.  Hitters don't always have some reliable, clockwork-like production profile like Adam Dunn or Rickey Henderson.

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That said, the pining for MAT is a bit much.  Even this year, the best you can say about MAT is he is approaching mediocre in what should be his prime offensive years (or start of his decline).  He's 5 years older, too.

 :clap: Exactly.  Robles is still a a young player and a bit of a work in progress.  With MAT, you know what you're getting and it's not very good.

Offline rileyn

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So Stevenson starts 2 of 3 against Miami?    Hmmmm.....  Dog house.

Offline welch

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That said, the pining for MAT is a bit much.

A reminder: anytime someone compares Robles to MAT, that is not "pining" for Taylor. It means that Robles is as weak a hitter as Taylor. That Robles hits like MAT, and Taylor is a model of a .235 - .250 hitter with some power but who strikes out far too often. MAT is a fine fielder and a good base-runner -- the classic good-field / no-hit backup. That's what we have in Robles, as least so far.

If there is to be any hope for Robles, then he needs to learn to hit. If it is a public-relations catastrophe to send him back to AAA, then platoon him with Stevenson, but that still forces him to learn hitting against major leaguers. Even Harmon Killebrew could not do that.

Offline imref

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Zuckerman was asked about Robles on his chat this morning, here's his response:

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I think the last few nights may have revealed something about the Nats' thinking on Robles. He's healthy, but he hasn't been in the lineup every night. It's been Andrew Stevenson in center field. I think some in the organization are beginning to show they've lost some patience with Robles, not only for his poor offensive numbers but for his at-times erratic approach at the plate. (Remember when he tried to bunt with Barrera on first base the other night?) I don't think this necessarily means they've given up on him long-term. But the fact Stevenson has started over him a couple times in recent days tells me they're at least considering he might not be their best option to win on any given night

Offline welch

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Send Robles to Rochester to learn to hit against AAA pitching. If he can't hit opposing pitchers now, there is no reason to expect him to learn by failing to hit over and over. Maybe he will hit weaker pitching and that will rebuild some confidence. He looks miserable now.

Offline welch

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The day after his batting average fell below .200 for the first time since April, outfielder Víctor Robles was out taking early batting practice with hitting coach Kevin Long on Tuesday. Robles does this frequently, particularly when he is not in the starting lineup. But it’s a sign that his work ethic hasn’t been compromised by the fact he is in the midst of a second consecutive frustrating season.

Despite giving him a reduced role the last few weeks, the Nationals still believe there’s more in the tank for the 24-year-old. Improved plate discipline is part of the reason. He entered Tuesday with a 10.5 percent walk rate, by far the best of his career. Before this year, he had drawn walks in only 5.3 percent of his MLB plate appearances. According to FanGraphs, Robles is swinging at only 26.4 percent of the pitches he sees outside of the zone. That is below the MLB average of 30.7 percent and almost 8 percentage points better than the rate he posted last season.

What he needs to do is become more consistent with his timing. Since being sidelined because of an ankle injury in mid-May, Robles has often let pitches travel too far over the plate. That has made him late and susceptible to rolling balls over.

https://theathletic.com/2750825/2021/08/04/nationals-notes-carter-kiebooms-best-swing-of-the-year-wander-sueros-future-and-more/

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Just posted this in the completed deals thread, but his OBP was fine for most of the first 3 months.  April - .346, May .345, June - .337.  Started to dive around 6/25.  Since then it is closer to .250.  with no power.  May was really peak Vic -  .265 / .345 / .388. FWIW, that was also his lowest walk rate (7.1%).    July was his nadir - .130 / .254 / .185, with a 7.9% walk rate.

Offline welch

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I happened to look at his slugging percentage, and then worked back at previous regular CFs. Robles is at an impossibly-low .287, which compares in no way to Denard Span's .400+ in 2014 and, I think, even .2015. Didn't Span get hurt that season? Was that why the Nats dropped him? (It's been a long time...)

Other comparisons:

- Jim Busby, 1954: .389 SLG (Busby was a fine fielder but not a great hitter.)
- Albie Pearson, 1958: .358 SLG (Pearson, the Nats ROY, was 5-5 and 140 pounds.)
- Bob Allison, 1959: .482 SLG (Allison was a power-hitter, and anyone who walks around the Nats Park concourse can see him in a photo of the "Modern Murderer's Row")
- Lenny Green, 1960: .430 SLG (just to be fair to Robles, Green was a smaller, more typical hitter than Big Bob Allison)
- Don Lock, 1963: .338 SLG (Lock was the Expansion Senators' regular CF until...)
- Del Unser, 1969: .382 SLG (skipping the Year of the Pitcher, 1968.)

Skipping to the New Nationals, we have Willie Harris and Nyjer Morgan and etc.

Robles has to improve, doesn't he?
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Offline Slateman

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Offline sixthree175

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I happened to look at his slugging percentage, and then worked back at previous regular CFs. Robles is at an impossibly-low .287, which compares in no way to Denard Span's .400+ in 2014 and, I think, even .2015. Didn't Span get hurt that season? Was that why the Nats dropped him? (It's been a long time...)

Other comparisons:

- Jim Busby, 1954: .389 SLG (Busby was a fine fielder but not a great hitter.)
- Albie Pearson, 1958: .358 SLG (Pearson, the Nats ROY, was 5-5 and 140 pounds.)
- Bob Allison, 1959: .482 SLG (Allison was a power-hitter, and anyone who walks around the Nats Park concourse can see him in a photo of the "Modern Murderer's Row")
- Lenny Green, 1960: .430 SLG (just to be fair to Robles, Green was a smaller, more typical hitter than Big Bob Allison)
- Don Lock, 1963: .338 SLG (Lock was the Expansion Senators' regular CF until...)
- Del Unser, 1969: .382 SLG (skipping the Year of the Pitcher, 1968.)

Skipping to the New Nationals, we have Willie Harris and Nyjer Morgan and etc.

Robles has to improve, doesn't he?
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The Denard Span exit was truly bizarre.  He was out for an extended period of time in 2015 (final year of his contract).  Then I  remember the day he came back Dan Kolko interviewed him before the game.  He was outwardly elated to be back in the line-up and made it seem like all was well.  Alas, it was not sincere.  After that game he never played another game as a Nat. 

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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He's the worst hitter I've witnessed in recent history.  And I'm a coach for my son's team, a bunch 6 and 7 year olds.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I think D-Span was concussed and ended up sitting out the end of his last year under contract.  He then left as a free agent maybe to San Francisco?

Offline Natsinpwc

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He's the worst hitter I've witnessed in recent history.  And I'm a coach for my son's team, a bunch 6 and 7 year olds.
Maybe Vic needs to hit off a tee?

Offline spidernat

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Maybe Vic needs to hit off a tee?



He'd hit .310 off a tee


Offline Smithian

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I feel bad for him at this point. I say send him down just to regain his confidence. Hope he gets a little hot streak and bring him back sometime in September. This is just sad right now.

Let Lane Thomas and Stevenson platoon in CF.

Offline welch

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Nationals sign 29 year old 1B Mike Ford, who had been recently released by both the Yankees and Tampa.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fordmi01.shtml

Joe Ross to the 60-day IL to clear a spot.


More home runs this year than Victor Robles, the AAA outfielder taking a 26-man roster spot.

Offline imref

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More home runs this year than Victor Robles, the AAA outfielder taking a 26-man roster spot.

Ford in CF would be interesting.

Offline welch

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Ford in CF would be interesting.

Rochester needs a 1B and a CF. Ford and Robles fit.

Offline Slateman

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:lmao: They arent sending Robles to the minors

Offline welch

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:lmao: They arent sending Robles to the minors

Robles plays like he should be in AAA.

He got hurt in his AAA season -- twisted his arm, diving for a ball, best I remember. Check his minor league numbers: usually a .275 hitter. We see him look puzzled and stuck when he hits. Give the kid a chance.

Offline Mattionals

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Robles plays like he should be in AAA.

He got hurt in his AAA season -- twisted his arm, diving for a ball, best I remember. Check his minor league numbers: usually a .275 hitter. We see him look puzzled and stuck when he hits. Give the kid a chance.


There isn't really a reason to send him down. Same as Garcia. If he can't figure it out with the team in re-build mode at the MLB level, then he isn't going to figure it out at AAA either. Look at Kieboom. There is no pressure anymore for him to be "the guy". He has started to return to his approach when he was a top prospect. If Robles is still putting to much pressure on himself to perform, he needs a new team, a change of scenery, and it's not going to come in the form of AAA.

Offline Slateman

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Robles has hit major league pitching before. He's only 24, is extremely talented, has already raked in the minor leagues, and plays elite defense in CF. This idea that in a lost season we should send him down to play Lane Thomas or Andrew Stevenson is idioitic at best.

Play him every day he is healthy in CF. You want to see what Thomas can do? Sit someone else, like Soto or Hernandez. Thomas isnt going to sustain a .600+ BABIP. At best he's a reserve OFer or a light side platoon bat.

This team has to figure out if Robles can be an everyday player. The only way to do that is to actually let him play every day.

Offline imref

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Since August 7 (11 games): .283 / .298 / .391, 4 doubles

Offline Natsinpwc

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They sent MAT down to Harrisburg back in 2019 and it didn’t seem to do much for him as a hitter. I think you just roll with Robles. The team is not going anywhere this year or next with or without him. Just keep playing him.  Same with Kieboom. I think Garcia could have used some more time in the minors.