Author Topic: I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)  (Read 11632 times)

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Offline welch

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I watched Robles get a couple of hits and even run the bases intelligently on Saturday. Maybe he will be respectable by July? If Robles can be sensible on the bases, maybe there's hope.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Boz in his chat today was pounding the table insisting Robles should be leadoff, Turner 2, and Soto 3 for the rest of the year. Says that at leadoff,.350 obp is above average, and Turner is too good of a power hitter to hit leadoff.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Boz in his chat today was pounding the table insisting Robles should be leadoff, Turner 2, and Soto 3 for the rest of the year. Says that at leadoff,.350 obp is above average, and Turner is too good of a power hitter to hit leadoff.

If Robles bats leadoff,  Turner should hit behind Soto.  Turner provides the best protection to Soto, and Turner's speed provides his own protection: you're not going to IBB him with anyone else behind him because he'll steal.  You bat him ahead of Soto, he runs a lot less because him stealing means they put Soto on plus Soto gets jack crap to hit even when Turner's not on because some useless side of beef like Bell is behind him.

Offline sixthree175

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I watched Robles get a couple of hits and even run the bases intelligently on Saturday. Maybe he will be respectable by July? If Robles can be sensible on the bases, maybe there's hope.
A broken clock is correct twice a day, and such is the case with Victor.  It's unbelievable how someone with so much foot speed can be such a nightmare on the base paths.  Also, he bunts in inappropriate situations.  I hear he's a hard worker, but I think he's just not very bright.  Sky NOT the limit.   

Offline Slateman

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A broken clock is correct twice a day, and such is the case with Victor.  It's unbelievable how someone with so much foot speed can be such a nightmare on the base paths.  Also, he bunts in inappropriate situations.  I hear he's a hard worker, but I think he's just not very bright.  Sky NOT the limit.   
Fast =/= good base running.

In fact, all of Robles struggles make sense. When you're athletically superior to everyone, you dont really have to develop skills. You beat everyone with athletic ability. You dont really develop the skills and savy that lesser players develop.

In all honesty, we probably called Robles up too early.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Ok, for you batting average fans , he is up to .248 with .352 obp. Despite Boz's suggestion, the order is working with him hitting 9th.

Offline imref

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Ok, for you batting average fans , he is up to .248 with .352 obp. Despite Boz's suggestion, the order is working with him hitting 9th.

Seems to make much more sense to have him hit ninth than eighth

Offline welch

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I am more and more beginning to like Victor Robles.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Seems to make much more se :roll:nse to have him hit ninth than eighth

Yep. 9th puts him in front of Turner. Lots of speed on the bases, challenging situation for pitchers. If he doesn't TOOTBLAN.

Offline nfotiu

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Ok, for you batting average fans , he is up to .248 with .352 obp. Despite Boz's suggestion, the order is working with him hitting 9th.
Boz wanted him leadoff right?   I think 9th is good for leadoff in training.  8th wasn't going to help him develop where he's always in a position of being pitched around.

He's again looking like he'll be a good-very good player.   Now to get Soto to figure out how to stop hitting worm burners...

Offline welch

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Where is Victor? Why isn't he starting this weekend? Does Davey think Stevenson needs to start a couple games in a row?

Offline Slateman

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Where is Victor? Why isn't he starting this weekend? Does Davey think Stevenson needs to start a couple games in a row?
He sprained his ankle and is on the IL

Offline rileyn

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Everybody weigh in here: 

Q:  When does Robles hit his first HR?

I will go with June 16, vs. Pittsburgh.

Offline Slateman

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I want to like Victor Robles

Offline imref

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I want to see Andrew Stevenson start.

Offline varoadking

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Everybody weigh in here: 

Q:  When does Robles hit his first HR?

I will go with June 16, vs. Pittsburgh.

Who do the Red Wings play that day?

Offline imref

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Who do the Red Wings play that day?

:hysterical:

He’s probably not being sent down, the other CFs at Rochester are hitting below .200

Offline rileyn

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I wonder how many potential trades we have turned down because we wouldn't give up Robles.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I think he tries too hard.

Offline Duke of Earl

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I think he tries too hard.
He certainly doesn't think too hard. 

He should not have taken the risk. Granted, it would have put runners at second and third, with the winning run at second, with one out ... at the risk of  significantly reducing the chance of tying, I'd say by 75%. Being the home team, you're playing for the tie.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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He certainly doesn't think too hard. 

He should not have taken the risk. Granted, it would have put runners at second and third, with the winning run at second, with one out ... at the risk of  significantly reducing the chance of tying, I'd say by 75%. Being the home team, you're playing for the tie.

FWIW - Run expectancy, 2d & 3d, 1 out is in the neighborhood of 1.4 runs, assuming an average hitter coming up.  First and 3rd, one out, it is 1.25 runs. runner on third 2 outs, it is about 0.35, maybe a touch less (that makes sense, you need to avoid an out in that spot, so it should be close to OBP, with some wiggle room for fielding and pitching miscues).  We were down 1 at the time.  Moving up is almost meaningless if you are trying to extend the game an inning by a tie, and is a killer if you don't make it. If you want somebody to walk it off, then it is a very slight help but not worth the cost of being caught.  IOW, if you go, it must be a lock.  This doesn't account for not letting Turner hit with one out, runner on 3rd, nor does it account for staying out of a GIDP by Turner with Robles running (it happens, but is rare).  If it is 2d and 3d, you can guess they walk Turner (a meaningless run since the walk off run is on 2d already), so you'd have Soto and then Zim with bases loaded.  Soto has a .410 OBP, so playing that run is well above 60%, probably closer to 70% in that case.

https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2020/12/21/summarizing-a-runs-expectancy-matrix/

There's probably a Win Probability chart out there someone else can play with.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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More googling found a win expectancy calculator.

2d and 3d, 1 out, home team down 1, 9th (I'm using that as the equivalent of the extra innings 8th) - 55%
1st an 3d, 1 out, home team down 1, 9th - 46%
3d, 2 out, home team down 1, 9th - 26%

https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#H.-1.9.1.7.0.0

So, by running, Robles risked a 9% improvement in the odds of winning vs. a 20% loss of win likelihood.  He has to make it > 2 out of 3 times in order for it to make sense to go, without accounting for the batters behind him (Turner, Soto, and RZ).

Offline Duke of Earl

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Moving up is almost meaningless if you are trying to extend the game an inning by a tie,

But that wasn't what Robles was trying to do. That is, if he gave it any thought at all. He was trying to put us in position to win.  Laudable but dumb.

If he had been successful our run expectancy (by your figures) would have been 1.4, meaning good chance of tying, not so good at winning. By staying at first the run expectancy is 1.25, not much different that 1.4. And getting thrown out, run expectancy of .35 is drastically lower. All this is to say he shouldn't have tried unless it was a sure thing, which is I think what you're saying.

Players obviously don't do these calculations in their heads on the spot.  But the good players make the right decision instinctively, from years of playing and watching baseball.

Offline blue911

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Was the first base coach on a smoke break?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Oh, yes, it was an attempt to improve the odds of winniing and not a move to tie and extend. I'm more or less saying there's no reason to do it unless it is a play to win now, and even from that approach, it was a bonehead move if you can't waltz into the base