2025 Off-season - general thread

[varoadking]

Josh Bell come on down....

Did we sign him?

[imref]

Did we sign him?

no, but we will. He'll be within budget.

[OfftheBat]

He probably wants to be paid in dollars

As opposed to being paid in bobbleheads? 

[OfftheBat]

There ya go. Mark isn't going to spend. The best thing we can hope for is someone calls and offers what they want for the team.

Yep, at this point, hope he sells the team to a deep-pocketed owner. Otherwise the future is bleak.

[IanRubbish]

Yep, at this point, hope he sells the team to a deep-pocketed owner. Otherwise the future is bleak.

Mini Me and his in-laws won't sell until someone overpays.  Not otherwise, it's bleak.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Toughest off-season to maintain any interest in Nats talk so far. Other than the WTF about Finnegan and Rainey, and Bobby Barrels showing life in the AFL, there's absolutely nothing.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Rizzo has set the 5 highest scores in Candy Crush this month

Toughest off-season to maintain any interest in Nats talk so far. Other than the WTF about Finnegan and Rainey, and Bobby Barrels showing life in the AFL, there's absolutely nothing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rizzo has set the 5 highest scores in Candy Crush this month

Candy, Candy, Candy, I can't let you go...

[imref]

Toughest off-season to maintain any interest in Nats talk so far. Other than the WTF about Finnegan and Rainey, and Bobby Barrels showing life in the AFL, there's absolutely nothing.

Agreed. I think this is the season that fans were expecting the team to make a push to return to playoff contention, not another year of scrubbing the bottom of the barrel for reclamation projects.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Agreed. I think this is the season that fans were expecting the team to make a push to return to playoff contention, not another year of scrubbing the bottom of the barrel for reclamation projects.

they aren't even doing the bottom of the barrel thing.

Dom Smith is a free agent.

[imref]

starting to think we're in the wrong thread.

[imref]

Rosenthal writing in The Atlantic:

Who’s the next Jayson Werth for the Nationals?

The Washington Nationals are in a position not unlike where they were when they signed outfielder Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million free-agent contract entering the 2011 season. Most in the industry viewed the deal as a wild overpay, but the Nationals wanted to add a proven veteran to their emerging young core.

Werth, who was turning 32, came close to fulfilling the value of his contract, according to Fangraphs’ dollars metric, which is WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency. So, assuming the Lerner ownership is willing to spend — never a sure thing — the Nats must identify which free-agent position player can boost them the way Werth once did.

First base is the obvious place to put such a player. Pete Alonso, who turns 30 on Dec. 7, likely will be out of the Nationals’ price range and probably prefers to join an established winner. Christian Walker might be more realistic, but he, too, might have better options, and the Nationals might prefer someone younger. Walker turns 34 on March 28. A three-year deal also would cover his ages 35 and 36 campaigns.

The 2025 Nationals certainly would benefit from adding Walker. People in the game rave about his makeup and instincts. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 32 homers with an .813 OPS while winning three straight Gold Gloves. Perhaps he will continue producing at high levels. The concern, for any team that signs him, is that he might decline in the latter years.

For the Nationals, the cost of a player such as Alonso, Walker or Santander, another free agent to whom they have been linked, would go beyond the financial guarantee. All three of those players rejected qualifying offers. To sign one of them, the Nationals would need to part with their second-highest draft pick, the sixth selection of the second round.

[HalfSmokes]

Oh no, not a second round pick that Rizzo is going to botch anyway. Better play it safe and avoid quality free agents

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

Oh no, not a second round pick that Rizzo is going to botch anyway. Better play it safe and avoid quality free agents

Lmfao

[Natsinpwc]

It’s early.

[BigMeech]

https://x.com/klwoodjr/status/1861040318537167007


lol

Yeah this team is cooked until it's sold.  Poverty franchise behavior.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I still think there are ways to make this team competitive even without one of the big starters (Burnes, Snell, Cole, Fried) or Soto. What would disturb me more is if we stay away from the quality FAs and bring in more pump and dump guys on short term moves. I don't think Walker, Joc, Yates, Severino or guys like that require 5 plus years at $20 million plus. Those guys should be available and would not get in the way if Wood or Crews hits their ceilings

[Natsinpwc]

Yes it’s kind of silly at this point to think they will sign front end guys. But they do need to spend.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Yes it’s kind of silly at this point to think they will sign front end guys. But they do need to spend.

we can all spin out fantasy 2025 lineups, but more or less the current outfield and MI/C combination, with Walker at first, Tena holding down 3rd until House/ Morales / Wallace is ready, a Joc / Chappy or Yepez platoon at DH, a vet in the rotation, and a legit closer is a .500 team +/- 5 games. You can go in for a playoff push if they surprise on the upside.

[Slateman]

Yes it’s kind of silly at this point to think they will sign front end guys. But they do need to spend.

Nick Pivetta, Josh Bell, and Jake Junis

[Natsinpwc]

Nick Pivetta, Josh Bell, and Jake Junis

KC Royals approach last offseason.

[Slateman]

KC Royals approach last offseason.

Oh no, they got guys who could be good . . .

[Natsinpwc]

Oh no, they got guys who could be good . . .

Pivetta has had good stats the past two years.  ERA around 4.00. I will take that. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Just going off of Ben Clemens's estimates on the FG top 50 (MLBTR estimates in red):

Pivetta 3 years / $42 million mlbtr - accepts QO
Walker 3 years / $51 million mlbtr - 3/$60
Joc 1 year / $14 million mlbtr - 2/$24
Yates 1 year / $10 million mlbtr - 1/ $14

Bieber is 2 years / $36 million ($18 million AAV), which I like better than Pivetta. mlbtr has 1/$14

The top 4 here is $55 million in 2025 for 7.4 fWAR using steamer projections, then $31 million per year for 2026 and 2027. Swap Bieber for Pivetta and it is $59 (6.4fWAR)/ 35 / $17 million for 2025-27.

The cost estimates might be a touch low, but add 7-8 wins to a 71 win team and you are in contention if the surprise is on the upside.

[Slateman]

Oh, the Lerners won't pay that for Pivetta. Frankly I wouldn't either.