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you mean Kwame.Nats are at worst a coin flip when they have a top 10 pick. Aaron Crowe wasn't much, but even he made the majors and his not signing yielded us Storen. While we at playoff Storen, he had a good regular season record here. Beyond that, it's Stras, Harper, Rendon, Green, and Crews, and King. House was an 11. Green looks like the only bust, and his 2nd half last year might mean he's coming around.
12:24 Sodo Mojo: As a Mariners fan I just became a lot more interested in the top of this years draft. I know its early but how does the talent at the top of this years draft compare to the last three?12:25 Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are a couple of guys who have an argument to be top 100 prospects immediately, like two or three at this stage. By draft time that number is more like 6. It’s possible a true top-of-the-class slam dunk will emerge by then but I don’t think there is one now…12:26 Eric A Longenhagen: I love Tyler Bremner from UC Santa Barbara and think he’s as close to a top 3-to-5 lock as the draft has right now. Here are my notes on him right now: Loose, flexible, and lean right-hander who sits mid 90s with his FB and was routinley in the upper-90s during shorter bursts with Team USA during the summer of ’24. Posted a .88 WHIP as a soph at UCSB. Has a shot to develop three plus pitches. Fastball averaged 95 mph during the regular season with plus rise/run movement. Also features a two-plane, bat-missing slider with tight, hard spin and uncommon velocity (85-88 mph) for a pitch with above-average length. Bremner’s best pitch might be a changeup that will flash big depth and late fading action. There are stretches where his arm slot drops when throwing the cambio but you can go crazy projecting on that pitch because of his fluidity and arm speed. One of the top pitching prospects in the 2025 draft and a potential top 5 pick..
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure it’s correctable, I think his hands just work in a way that leaves him very vulnerable to many fastballs up/away. I have him more middle of the first round. 72% contact guy on the showcase circuit, hit .240 and slugged .380 when you add up his entire multi-year showcase sample. Love the raw power potential, don’t think the performance merits a top 5 pick. But the Colorado/Holliday connection and Washington’s willingness to take guys like Elijah Green looms.
Longenhagen has some praise for Bremmer in his chat yesterday:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-12-13-24/What I can't tell is whether he likes Bremmer as 1/1 or as 1/3 since the question is from a Mariners fan. Also likes Billy Carson, a HS SS, and Aiva Arquette. Says both could blow up to 1/1. Carson needs to get stronger and Arquette he says has the physical projection.
same chat. His doubts about Holliday and the potential flaw in his swing:
Holliday and LaViolette are both Boras clients.
Pick the one you want, keep them in the minors for 5 years so you get their prime. It's not like they should care about alienating an agent whose players they can't afford in the first place
LaViolette is this year's Wyatt Langford. He won't spend much time at all in the minors. Holliday is at best a 2027 arrival.
If you haven't watched Arnold, then the best way to visualize his delivery is to stitch together parts from other great southpaws. He combines Clayton Kershaw's leg kick, complete with hands puppeteering the knee ever higher, with Chris Sale's longer arm stroke and lower release slot. Forget the anxiety of influence; Arnold has the potential to become someone others model their games after in due time. His arsenal contains three high-quality offerings, including a pair of distinct fastballs: a four-seamer that elicits whiffs and a sinker that induces ground balls, both at elite rates. He also possesses a plus or better slider that he's shown the capacity for backfooting against right-handed batters and a changeup (though it makes fewer public appearances than Thomas Pynchon). Arnold has a better strike-throwing track record than Hagen Smith, the No. 5 pick and the top left-hander in last year's draft, and one veteran talent evaluator estimated he's ahead of where Paul Skenes was at this point in his platform year. That doesn't mean Arnold will reach Skenes' heights (remember that Skenes discovered an elite pitch, a sinker, shortly after turning pro), but it makes him the current most compelling candidate to go No. 1.
Only take a pitcher 1-1 of it’s a strasburg or skenes level guy. Otherwise, injurynoutweighs upside. I’m hoping lavilotete will fix some swing concerns, boost his in zone contact, and become a slam dunk 1-1
I’m a little apprehensive about, and therefore lower on, Stillwater High School (OK) shortstop Ethan Holliday. To run through some positives, Holliday is incredibly physical and strong, and he’s a big time rotator, absolutely electric for a guy his size; his swing has huge finish in the dirt behind him and natural lift toward the oppo gap. He has plus raw power right now and still has room for strength on his gigantic frame. He’s going to have special power.But there are some alarming, pause-giving indicators here. Per Synergy, Holliday hit .246/.446/.346 combined in 2023 and 2024 against his most talented peers. I can guess what you’re thinking, and I agree — that’s surprisingly low. Holliday is very often late getting to pitches on the outer third of the zone. His swing is super long and makes it tough for him to pull fastballs at all, which is a red flag at this stage (see: Jones, Druw). The amount of whiffing, combined with the lack of actual in-game power production, means I’m not comfortable windmill slamming Holliday as a top two player in this class.Because most teams care so much about how hitters perform against the cream-of-the-crop pitchers from their grad class, it’s going to be tough for Holliday to make these concerns go away when he’s facing guys who sit 83-85 mph during spring varsity play. Holliday’s special power and upside justify a high pick, but he isn’t a no-doubt star. The team that drafts him should have some idea of how they might help him be in better position to cover the up-and-away quadrant of the zone and, in general, pull fastballs with power.
Longenhagen has published his updated draft board on Fangraphs. LaViolette is his #1 overall. Jamie Arnold is #3 and Ethan Holliday is all the way down at #9.https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2025-mlb-draft
Yes. In a draft where there are seemingly two consensus top prospects, one being a college slugger who gives Aaron Judge vibes (Jace LaViolette), and another who looks like a bigger, stronger version of his older, phenom brother (Ethan Holliday, brother of Jackson) who debuted at 19 in 2024, I think neither really fit what the Nationals want and could be more affordable.They want pitching to go with the young hitters - James Wood, Dylan Crews and CJ Abrams. MacKenzie Gore looked good, while Travis Sykora is the No. 2 prospect in the organization and is ranked No. 59 overall in Baseball America's 2025 prospect rankings. Arnold could be the best pitcher in the draft after what he did in 2024. He certainly can pitch himself to the No. 1 spot like Paul Skenes did in 2023. He doesn’t have the fastball Skenes has, but he has thrown as high as 97 mph. He also has solid off-speed pitches with a slider, curveball and changeup. Arnold's slider could be the best pitch of any prospect in the class. He’s the No. 3 prospect at FloBaseball and was moved to No. 3 by Baseball America in January, moving past Tyler Bremner of UC Santa Barbara. Carrying a 2.98 ERA in 105 2/3 innings, Arnold was terrific in 2024 and clearly just behind Chase Burns as the best pitcher in the ACC. At 6-foot-1, 192 pounds, Arnold isn’t the towering figure, but he does get compared to Chris Sale, which is funny, because Sale is 6-foot-6. The Cincinnati Reds passed on several higher-rated draft prospects to take the best pitcher, Burns, at No. 2 in 2024. That’s what they needed more of. I feel the Nationals will do the same. Some thought taking Burns meant saving signing bonus money, but he wound up signing a huge deal. Passing on Holliday and LaViolette could, in fact, mean the Nationals are planning to spend money on later picks over slot value. Last year, the Nationals took another infielder who could become a center fielder in the first round, Seaver King. The year before that, Crews, an outfielder. In 2022, it was Elijah Green, an outfielder. In fact, the last first-round pitcher the team has taken was in 2020. It was Cade Cavalli of Oklahoma State, and he hasn’t debuted yet. This seems like the wildcard the Nats could do, but it might not even be Arnold. There are three pitchers vying to be the first off the board, including Bremner and high school prospect Seth Hernandez, both RHPs.
LaViolette went 2 for 4 with two homers, a walk, and a strikeout
1-2 with a homer, 2 walks, and a strikeout
There's also a lefty college starter, Arnold (I think), who has some buzz, and a couple other guys who could pop up.
