2025 MLB Draft

[imref]

Bleacher Nation's latest mock:

Washington Nationals: Jamie Arnold – LHP – Florida State
Los Angeles Angels: Jace LaViolette – OF – Texas A&M
Seattle Mariners: Ethan Holliday – SS – Stillwater HS (Oklahoma)
Colorado Rockies: Seth Hernandez – RHP – Corona HS (California)
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler Bremner – RHP – UC Santa Barbara
Pittsburgh Pirates: Billy Carlson – SS/RHP – Corona HS (California)
Miami Marlins: Kayson Cunningham – SS – Johnson HS (Texas)
Toronto Blue Jays: Xavier Neyens – 3B – Mount Vernon HS (Washington)
Cincinnati Reds: Luke Stevenson – C – North Carolina
Chicago White Sox: Brendan Summerhill – OF – Arizona

https://www.bleachernation.com/mlb/2025/03/31/2025-mlb-mock-draft-0331/

[welch]

BA's draft, as of 3/31. Top 5:

1. Nationals — Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS
Writer: Carlos

Rationale: There’s not a clear 1-1 candidate in this class. In lieu of that, I’m going with the player who excites me the most and who I believe has the most overall upside. That’s Seth Hernandez, who has touched 100 mph, has a 70 changeup, two real breaking balls and would be a legitimate prospect as a hitter and shortstop if he gave up pitching. It’s ace upside. I’m taking it.

2. Angels — Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Writer: Peter

Rationale: Picking at No. 2 in this exercise made me realize how much I don’t envy the organizations picking in the top five. However, I’ll gladly select Jamie Arnold who’s off to an outstanding start. Arnold has a plus fastball/slider combination with a budding changeup and looks the part of a future No. 1 or No. 2 starter.

3. Mariners — Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Writer: Jacob

Rationale: Arquette has performed great to start his draft season and has a big league body, power, great bat speed and could stick at short

4. Rockies — Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
Writer: JJ

Rationale: If I’m the Rockies, this is my dream scenario. You get the son of a Rockies’ star who also could end up being the best player in the draft class.

5. Cardinals — Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
Writer: Ben

Rationale: LaViolette has some of the best power in the nation. His contact rate is up too, but his batting average and overall performance slumped early in the season, so that’s triggered some panic with the industry. I’ve heard critiques about his swing being more stiff compared to last year, but that might just be outcome bias for a guy who swung this way last year, too. Once the numbers come back up—and that’s already started—so will the perception of his operation in the box.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

BA's draft, as of 3/31. Top 5:

Don't take the best pitcher in the draft or the best hitter. Just some random dude that excites this guy lol. Just take Holliday, Laviolette or Arnold.

[IanRubbish]

LaViolette's HR production has picked up in the last week and his BB/K is over 1 for the first time.  I would keep him #1 over HS players and pitchers. 

[imref]

LaViolette's HR production has picked up in the last week and his BB/K is over 1 for the first time.  I would keep him #1 over HS players and pitchers. 

I think Rizzo goes for Holliday. We'll see.

[nobleisthyname]

After hearing so many prospect analysts crap on his hit tool I'm very nervous about a potential Holliday pick. Can't afford another Elijah Green.

[zimm_da_kid]

After hearing so many prospect analysts crap on his hit tool I'm very nervous about a potential Holliday pick. Can't afford another Elijah Green.

Same would go for laviolette too then.

[HondoKillebrew]

Same would go for laviolette too then.

I’m warming to the idea of drafting Arnold.

[zimm_da_kid]

I’m warming to the idea of drafting Arnold.

Too short

[imref]

I’m warming to the idea of drafting Arnold.

too old. Hey day was in the 70’s-90s. Plus bodybuilders don’t make good baseball players.

[varoadking]

I've stopped guessing what Rizzo is gonna do.  I was convinced he wasn't gonna let Boras snooker him in 2023, but he let him do it anyway...

[imref]

Todd Boss with an update on #1 pick candidates:

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18871

He highlights that Keith Law has dropped LaViolette from #1 consideration after seeing him play this past weekend and the high number of swing and miss ABs.

Boss' current thinking: Holliday, Doyle (LHP out of Tennessee), Arnold, Hernandez, and Arquette.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Todd Boss with an update on #1 pick candidates:

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18871

He highlights that Keith Law has dropped LaViolette from #1 consideration after seeing him play this past weekend and the high number of swing and miss ABs.

Boss' current thinking: Holliday, Doyle (LHP out of Tennessee), Arnold, Hernandez, and Arquette.

Arquette's performance in Desperately Seeking Susan is underrated.

[imref]

Arquette's performance in Desperately Seeking Susan is underrated.

and he's a former WCW world champion.

[varoadking]

and he's a former WCW world champion.

...and she was the subject of two of the greatest songs ever to grace vinyl...

[IanRubbish]

Arquette's performance in Desperately Seeking Susan is underrated.

Outstanding 80s reference. 

[IanRubbish]

Too short

Which is a big issue for Rizzo.  He usually needs at least 6 foot 4 to develop one of his typical man crushes, preferably 6 foot 6, along with a 100+ MPH fastball.  Combine these, along with Nats system coaching, and you can pretty much guarantee the guy will have gone through thoracic outlet syndrome and TJ surgeries by the age of 27, just in time for a come back stint where he'll walk 6 guys per 9 innings in Wilmington with a 5.50 ERA.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

Which is a big issue for Rizzo.  He usually needs at least 6 foot 4 to develop one of his typical man crushes, preferably 6 foot 6, along with a 100+ MPH fastball.  Combine these, along with Nats system coaching, and you can pretty much guarantee the guy will have gone through thoracic outlet syndrome and TJ surgeries by the age of 27, just in time for a come back stint where he'll walk 6 guys per 9 innings in Wilmington with a 5.50 ERA.

To be fair, I keep reading about Arnold's up and down starts. He doesn't seem to profile as a 1-1. Honestly, it makes the most sense to just take Holliday. I'd rather have Laviollette but draft nerds seem to be dropping him down the board.

[Slateman]

To be fair, I keep reading about Arnold's up and down starts. He doesn't seem to profile as a 1-1. Honestly, it makes the most sense to just take Holliday. I'd rather have Laviollette but draft nerds seem to be dropping him down the board.

No one in this class is a clear cut number 1 pick.

LaViolette is suddenly getting a lot of swing and miss. This is a problem for two reasons. The first is that he rarely swings outside the zone. Which leads us to the second problem: It's swing and miss on a lot of breaking stuff.

Bremmer and Arnold have both been up and down. Neither strike me as quick to the major leagues.

This seems like the draft you sign under slot to get more talent later on.

[zimm_da_kid]

Arquette, willits, or Holliday. You could talk me into Hernandez or Carlson.  I’d like to see us trade for a comp pick like did last year in the Harvey trade.
#1 pick will have around a $11.3 million slot
#45 (around our 2nd) will be around $2.2 million
If we trade for a comp pick it would be around $3 million

If our number 1 signs for 8.5 we’d save $2.8 mil and could sign two other $4 mil guys (and likely 3 if we go mega brown slot like rizzo likes to do beyond round 3 or 4)
$4 mil guys are equivalent to mid 1st rounders. We could grab a guy who falls, an upside high school arm, and a signability question mark guy. could be a haul of a draft class.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No one in this class is a clear cut number 1 pick.
 [analysis of class]
This seems like the draft you sign under slot to get more talent later on.

+1. I would not be all "LAC" about that.

FWIW, the sweat spot in the draft according to Longenhagen is around 50-75. If he's onto something, there might be nice 3rd-5th rounders who slip who can be signed for above slot.

[varoadking]

+1. I would not be all "LAC" about that.

FWIW, the sweat spot in the draft according to Longenhagen is around 50-75. If he's onto something, there might be nice 3rd-5th rounders who slip who can be signed for above slot.

I don't usually find my sweat spot until 90-100...

[imref]

Keith Law's latest:

1. Ethan Holliday IF
2. Liam Doyle LHP
3. Jamie Arnold LHP
4. Aiva Arquette SS
5. Marek Houston SS

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6278346/2025/04/15/2025-top-50-mlb-draft-rankings-keith-law/

He has Seth Hernandez at 21

[varoadking]

I've been on the Holliday band wagon from the start...hopefully Boras doesn't steer Rizzo and Marky astray...again...

[welch]

Keith Law's latest:

1. Ethan Holliday IF
2. Liam Doyle LHP
3. Jamie Arnold LHP
4. Aiva Arquette SS
5. Marek Houston SS

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6278346/2025/04/15/2025-top-50-mlb-draft-rankings-keith-law/

He has Seth Hernandez at 21

Report on Holiday:

Scouting Report
Bats: L, Throws: R
Holliday has come out strongly so far this year, showing more with the bat beyond power than he has in the past and playing better defense at shortstop, even though the broad consensus is he’ll end up at third base. He’s got easy, easy power, and he controlled the zone well last summer and fall, but he whiffed more than a top-of-the-draft hitter typically should (31 percent in measured events, per data from Synergy Sports). He swings very hard, as you might expect, even with two strikes, and can end up a little off-balance in his follow-through as a result. He may just need more time than his brother Jackson did to develop as a hitter; either way, he has more risk around the hit tool than Jackson had at the time of his draft. It’s 30-homer upside at third base, maybe with plus defense too.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6278346/2025/04/15/2025-top-50-mlb-draft-rankings-keith-law/