0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
Is he a "lock" to be our first round draft pick?
no. Right now the mocks are saying LaViolette, Arnold, or Holliday. The big question mark with LaViolette is his propensity to strike out. If he keeps his K rate down around 20% he probably becomes the top pick. But Rizzo could decide to go with Arnold who has been rising up the draft boards.
LaViolette's hit 3 HRs with a 1.700 OPS first three games. Given a choice between a Boras college client and a HS one, you get a better shot at their peak production years when they're a little older. Arnold's only listed at 6 foot 1, which is too short for Rizzo to get a man crush on him. Either way, an OF of Wood, LaViolette, and Crews and this team could be watchable for a few seasons before they become Phillies.
That's my thinking. A 2026 OF of Wood-Crews-LaViolette would be fun to watch.
Why would you think Laviolette could make it that fast when Crews did not?
Crews got drafted in 2023 and debuted in 2024. So if LaViolette gets drafted in 2025, the same trajectory would have him debuting in 2026.
Ok. But that was just a month or so. Wouldn’t probably be full time until 2027. Best case scenario
Depends how he does in the minors. Crews didn’t light the world on fire down there. If LaViolette does, and we’re playing .500 ball, he could get a significantly earlier promotion.
Five shutout innings for Arnold in Friday against Penn. 2H, 0BB, 8Ks. BBA with a profile:https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/florida-states-jamie-arnold-chases-greatness-with-plenty-on-the-line-in-2025/
if I had to bet a dollar, i'd bet on Rizzo taking LaViolette, simply because he's such a good fit for this team's needs for the next 4-5 years (yeah, I know, you don't draft in the MLB for need).
I suspect they draft the guy they can sign below slot, and that's not Laviolette. They think they will get a guy who falls with the 2d pick and go overslot to get a guy with 1st round talent.
Since the current slotting system became a thing every number 1 pick has been below slot. We can get the best player and have an extra $500k minimum to allocate to our second rounder. Basically gives us the number 1 pick + a late first
The odds of a top pick being an impact player are much greater than someone late first round. You go for the best player available.