Author Topic: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster  (Read 42042 times)

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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #400 on: September 12, 2024, 08:23:42 am »
House's numbers are carried by his performance in the low minors. In Double A and Triple A, he's a .261 hitter. And his walk rate is 5.6%. He isnt anywhere near ready. He wont be next season, and even if he is, the Nats would keep him in the minors, like they did with Wood
So how about Tena?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #401 on: September 12, 2024, 08:26:39 am »
Jose Tena is three years older than House. So of course he should have been doing better against similar competition. House has more potential. And is apparently not a butcher at 3B. Let Tena have the job to start next season if he does not embarrass himself in the field. Then maybe you can trade him for pitching prospect.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #402 on: September 12, 2024, 08:47:45 am »
So how about Tena?
.276 and he's never hit below .260 at any level.

My point is not that Tena is better, but that I just dont think House is going to be this amazing third baseman. He doesnt seem to have any interest in working a count, which will limit him offensively. And as for defense, I no longer know what to believe. Garcia was scouting to have shortstop level defense and Wood's scouting reports claimed he was a good outfield defender, capable of CF.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #403 on: September 12, 2024, 09:13:42 am »
Even if we do think House will be an amazing 3rd baseman or that Morales / Wallace can play there, none of them have shown they have nothing to work on in the high minors. House should get the Wood treatment, with hopefully no injury right before he's due to be called up. Let him dominate at AAA before exposing him to the majors.

For House, the power flashes, but the rest of the hitting skills aren't showing yet at AAA. you would have a basis for saying he's been bad at that level, except for the flashes of power. Nothing about a 191 PAs, .249 / .277 / .387, 67 wRC+, 29.3 K%, 2.6 BB%, looks like breaking the doors down.  Let's give a young kid who is advanced for his age and has star potential time to get learn and master things on a more normal development schedule rather than force feed him, have him scuffle for a year or two in the majors, and significantly shorten the time for team control if he eventually realizes his potential. That is malpractice.

As always, buy what RD is saying:
Since we're posting in 3 or 4 game blocks when he does well, it seems only right to go the other way.

In his last 4, House is 3-16 with 8 K's and 1 walk. 7 k's and 0 walks in the last 3.

My point isn't to act like I'm down on him. It's just to show you don't promote because there's a good couple game stretch. The inconsistency is a reason to keep him down. He's flashing. He clearly has ability. But there's no need to rush him.


Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #404 on: September 12, 2024, 09:29:30 am »
.276 and he's never hit below .260 at any level.

My point is not that Tena is better, but that I just dont think House is going to be this amazing third baseman. He doesnt seem to have any interest in working a count, which will limit him offensively. And as for defense, I no longer know what to believe. Garcia was scouting to have shortstop level defense and Wood's scouting reports claimed he was a good outfield defender, capable of CF.
Well sure but it looks like his walk rate is about the same.  So once MLB pitchers figure out not to throw him strikes his numbers will drop.

And you haven't addressed the fact that House is playing Triple A at 21.  He's five and a half years younger on average than the guys he is playing against.  Of course he will need to adjust.  He is the long term answer at 3B.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #405 on: September 12, 2024, 09:42:21 am »
House' walk rate has really dropped in Triple A.  He had 24 walks in 206 plate appearances at Harrisburg.  Not great.  But only 5 in 187 at Rochester.  Clearly needs more time to adjust.  But could he be any worse defensively than Tena at 3B.  I seriously doubt that. 

House starts 2025 at Triple A and we see if he does better.  You're not moving a high first round draft pick off his natural position for Tena. 

Offline imref

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #406 on: September 12, 2024, 10:39:20 am »
House' walk rate has really dropped in Triple A.  He had 24 walks in 206 plate appearances at Harrisburg.  Not great.  But only 5 in 187 at Rochester.  Clearly needs more time to adjust.  But could he be any worse defensively than Tena at 3B.  I seriously doubt that. 

House starts 2025 at Triple A and we see if he does better.  You're not moving a high first round draft pick off his natural position for Tena. 

Sanity. :clap:

Offline Smithian

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #407 on: September 12, 2024, 10:39:46 am »
They're not going to start the clock on Brady House when he could use more seasoning and Tena has shown something at the major league level, even if he needs work. I still think Brady House has the higher ceiling, but zero reason to rush him to the majors when we're not contending and there is value in seeing what Tena actually is.

Maybe time to split Brady House discussion to his thread?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #408 on: September 12, 2024, 11:00:09 am »
Well sure but it looks like his walk rate is about the same.  So once MLB pitchers figure out not to throw him strikes his numbers will drop.

And you haven't addressed the fact that House is playing Triple A at 21.  He's five and a half years younger on average than the guys he is playing against.  Of course he will need to adjust.  He is the long term answer at 3B.
House's age is pretty irrelevant at this point. He is who he is. Guys dont change their approach a whole lot at this point.

House isnt going to magically triple his walk rate, nor suddenly become a high average hitter. The best case scenario is Matt Chapman with a .310 - .320 OBP.

I'm more than willing to move House in a deal, particularly with Tena, Wallace, Lipscomb, and Bazzell waiting in the wings.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #409 on: September 12, 2024, 11:02:06 am »
I go back and forth on Christian Walker. I like the idea of a good fielding/picking first baseman. Also, looking like we need another right handed hitter to slot between Wood and Garcia. Abram/Crews/Wood/Walker/Garcia/Chapparo/Tena would be some nice balance.

 If we could get him on a 3 year deal, that would be stomachable. Four or more and he ends up in Adam LaRoche territory.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #410 on: September 12, 2024, 12:15:21 pm »
I don't think Brady House will ever be the hitter James Wood will be. Especially if Wood gets a higher launch rate because he barrels up on so many balls. But when it's said give House the Wood treatment, they're time in the minors is about the same. It looks like Rochester has 10 more games left and they'll be about the same. They're also both 21, although Wood will be 22 in 4 days. But, by spring House will be about the age Wood was when he came up. Having said that I know it might not hurt House to stay in the minors longer than Wood but I'm also not sure it would accomplish anything. House would give the Nats a right handed bat to go along with Tena's left handed. Also, I don't think you keep your top minor league prospect down so you can see what a guy who was not a top prospect can do, especially when they both can play and even compliment each other. I like Tena and think he's here to stay. I also saw a note that said he has 15 to 20 homer power and one big asset is his STRONG DEFENSE and ability to play all around the infield. Also, No way I trade House or Tena at this point. Next year is about making a run. Use all your guns.

James Wood Minors

Plate appearances - 1229
Games – 283

Brady House

Plate appearances - 1138 - about 1175 by the end of the year
Games - 268 - 278 by the end of the year

James Wood AAA

AAA

Plate appearances - 231
Games - 52

Brady House AAA

AAA

Plate appearances - 191 - about 230 by the end of the year
Games - 44 - 54 by the end of the year.

James Wood AA

Plate appearances - 368
Games - 87

Brady House AA

AA

Plate appearances - 454
Games - 111

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #411 on: September 12, 2024, 12:20:34 pm »
Maybe time to split Brady House discussion to his thread?
Gonna give this a bit more run. 3B is a key roster decision for 2025. I think it would be a major mistake to plan around House breaking with the team on opening day and that it would be malpractice both in terms of his development and roster management, but others differ. The discussion is less about his play in the minors (more appropriate for the FTP) than the 2025 roster question.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #412 on: September 12, 2024, 02:43:54 pm »
It would seem the Cleveland Guardians are a couple years ahead of what the Nats are trying to do. In 2022 they had a huge influx of home grown young talent. They went 92-70. In 2023 they fell back to 76-86. This year so far they are 84-62 and in first place. I looked at last night's starting lineup. They were all young home grown talent except Lane Thomas and he was a trade not free agent.

This is from an article about the Guardians prior to the 2023 season:

"The influx of young talent, highlighted by Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzalez plugging long-standing holes in the outfield, helped Cleveland overcome the fourth-lowest payroll ($91.6 million) in baseball."

Sounds familiar. Low payroll, two outfield positions filled with guys up from the minors.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cleveland-guardians-top-30-prospects-list-2023-preseason


Offline Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #413 on: September 12, 2024, 03:12:07 pm »
They released Gonzalez.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #414 on: September 12, 2024, 04:32:10 pm »
It would seem the Cleveland Guardians are a couple years ahead of what the Nats are trying to do.

Big difference with the Guardians is they play some of the best defense in the league.  They're around 20 defensive runs saved vs. -27 for the Nats.   

Offline varoadking

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #415 on: September 12, 2024, 06:22:41 pm »
House' walk rate has really dropped in Triple A.  He had 24 walks in 206 plate appearances at Harrisburg.  Not great.  But only 5 in 187 at Rochester.  Clearly needs more time to adjust.  But could he be any worse defensively than Tena at 3B.  I seriously doubt that. 

House starts 2025 at Triple A and we see if he does better.  You're not moving a high first round draft pick off his natural position for Tena.

Yeah...House has underachieved, but you have to hold out hope that he can turn things around...somewhat anyway.  I don't think he brings much back in a trade at this point...


Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #417 on: September 12, 2024, 07:01:24 pm »

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #418 on: September 12, 2024, 07:21:28 pm »
Boras is going to want to make it look like many teams are interested.   This is not happening.

“Look” like many teams are interested?  Every major market team will be, he’s a generational hitter not even yet in his prime with basically zero injury history.  I’m sure you have great sources that know who is really interested.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #419 on: September 12, 2024, 07:22:25 pm »
Yeah...House has underachieved, but you have to hold out hope that he can turn things around...somewhat anyway.  I don't think he brings much back in a trade at this point...

Yea you’re probably selling a bit low now.  No reason to do that.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #420 on: September 12, 2024, 07:26:07 pm »
Yea you’re probably selling a bit low now.  No reason to do that.

House could spend the entire next two years at AAA and open the 2027 season as a 23 year old.  We got time

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #421 on: September 12, 2024, 08:18:53 pm »
So a kid who has made it to Triple A mid way through his third full year of pro ball out of high school is a bust?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #422 on: September 12, 2024, 09:00:10 pm »
So a kid who has made it to Triple A mid way through his third full year of pro ball out of high school is a bust?
big difference between bust and starting opening day 2025

Offline welch

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #423 on: September 13, 2024, 08:52:40 am »
Work on Tena's fielding. Let House develop in AAA.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #424 on: September 13, 2024, 09:50:54 am »
Outside the box: Trade Garcia, and move either Abrams or Tena. Start Lipscomb at third.