Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster

[Smithian]

I have some hope for the d. Right now, 2 guys are being asked to play positions they haven't played regularly: Tena and Wood. I also expect Crews to be an upgrade over Thomas to be sure and likely Call's most recent play. It comes down to cj, imo. I expect more from him
 Ruiz I think will never be an asset

From 2022-2024, Nationals are third worst in defensive fWAR.

I don't trust Martinez at this point to fix up the squad defensively. I don't get it. It shouldn't be this bad.

[IanRubbish]

One thing in terms of the roster to consider is whether they bring in deadline flip rentals like they did this year with Gallo, Winker, Rosario, Senzel etc. While I think the time to keep doing that has passed, and it makes for boring baseball early in the season, Rizzo loves to have these kinds of players around.   

[nobleisthyname]

Going to be interesting to see how the rotation shakes out next year.

Locks: Gore, Irvin, Parker
Contenders: Herz, Stuart, Cavalli (if healthy), Lara, Lord, Rutledge

And that's without a FA signing (or two).

A starting five of FA, Gore, Irvin, Parker, and Stuart would be fine, assuming Gore returns to form. Start Cavalli in Rochester until he's hopefully ready at some point.

I'd put Herz above Parker at this point.

One thing in terms of the roster to consider is whether they bring in deadline flip rentals like they did this year with Gallo, Winker, Rosario, Senzel etc. While I think the time to keep doing that has passed, and it makes for boring baseball early in the season, Rizzo loves to have these kinds of players around.

The only reason to sign bounce back candidates to try and flip is if the Nats don't plan on competing. So if they do it will be immediately obvious that next year is another tank year.

[Slateman]

I'd put Herz above Parker at this point.

The only reason to sign bounce back candidates to try and flip is if the Nats don't plan on competing. So if they do it will be immediately obvious that next year is another tank year.

I dont even know how that would result in a tank. Wood and Crews for a full year will make the team better. I cant imagine they bring Gallo back, so Yepez or Chapparo are at least as bad, if not improvements. Anyone taking Corbin's spot is an improvement.

[nobleisthyname]

I dont even know how that would result in a tank. Wood and Crews for a full year will make the team better. I cant imagine they bring Gallo back, so Yepez or Chapparo are at least as bad, if not improvements. Anyone taking Corbin's spot is an improvement.

I really just mean not trying to compete next year.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

One thing in terms of the roster to consider is whether they bring in deadline flip rentals like they did this year with Gallo, Winker, Rosario, Senzel etc. While I think the time to keep doing that has passed, and it makes for boring baseball early in the season, Rizzo loves to have these kinds of players around.   

there are a lot fewer spots  to do the "sign a bounceback candidate and hope to flip him" in 2025 than there used to be. This year, there was really only Abrams and Ruiz who were lock down sure to start guys that would not be traded. Garcia didn't even have 2nd locked down. Plenty of room for sign-nees Rosario, Winker, Senzel, etc... to go with short timers like Thomas and the backend of the bullpen who could be traded. Next year, there's probably just DH/1B/3B, and there's a decent chance that there are good in-house candidates already on board for 2 or 3 of those slots. If we do decide to sign a DH/1B, it's more likely to be a higher end multi-year guy than it is a guy who is barely better than Tena / Yepez / Chaparro.

[Slateman]

I really just mean not trying to compete next year.

I genuienly think if you add nominal pieces (another Derek Law or Dylan Floro, for example), the improvement of the players, plus having Crews and Wood, plus replacing Corbin with an internal option that will probably be better, we end up at 77-82 wins.

We have a lottery pick in the 2025 draft, which means we cant have one in 2026. So .... it wouldn't really be tanking. It would just be being cheap. Which would be more disheartening.

I am not saying they have to go out and commit to a 9 figure contract, but if they are just signing Kyle Gibson and Wilmer Flores, I think a lot of Nats fans will check out

[JCA-CrystalCity]

curious - if the Nats did make a big signing, then would they forfeit their high pick in the next draft?

[Slateman]

curious - if the Nats did make a big signing, then would they forfeit their high pick in the next draft?

First round picks are exempt

• Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest picks as well.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the MLB Draft would lose its second- and fifth-round picks. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-highest first-round pick and its fourth-round pick.

• Revenue-sharing recipients: A team that receives revenue-sharing money will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest pick.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the MLB Draft would lose its third-round pick. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-round pick.

• All other teams: If a team does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold in the previous season, it will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest pick and an additional $500,000.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the MLB Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first round-pick.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I also suppose there's enough room under the cap that even signing Soto and Burnes would not blow the 1st threshold

[zimm_da_kid]

I also suppose there's enough room under the cap that even signing Soto and Burnes would not blow the 1st threshold

Soto and sasaki and you have a deal

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Let’s sign Santander (probably cheaper than Alonso and 4 years younger than Christian Walker) and Flaherty (youngest “Ace” SP) and besides a few bullpen pieces, this team can contend.

SS Abrams
LF Crews
RF Wood (better in RF)
DH Santander (could also play LF and move Crews to CF to essentially get another bat at DH to replace Young)
2B Garcia
1B Chapparo/Yepez
3B Tena
C Ruiz
CF Young

Hopefully early on House is ready to step in at 3B.  I think the last lineup spot at 1B can be filled by someone out of Chapparo/Yepez or Tena sticking at 3B and House playing 1B or Wallace coming up early on and him and House playing the corners.  If he can have a big 2 or 3 months, maybe Morales factors in.  There are enough intriguing options that I’m content to see what we have there before spending on another big bat besides Santander.  Hassell and Lile are guys who could eventually push Young to a 4th OF.  Ruiz is also going to have to be better, although signing someone long-term isn’t likely with this last draft going heavy at C.

Flaherty
Gore
Irvin
Parker
Herz

Options: Cavalli, Lord, Stuart

[Natsinpwc]

Tena is a total butcher at 3B.  Worse than Senzel.  You can't have him at 3B on a regular basis. 

The problem with being a bad team is you have to overpay for free agents.  They want more $ to come to a bad team. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Tena is a total butcher at 3B.  Worse than Senzel.  You can't have him at 3B on a regular basis. 

The problem with being a bad team is you have to overpay for free agents.  They want more $ to come to a bad team.

Anybody at 3B should be a short-term placeholder, or maybe House even breaks with the big club.  Generally players simply take the highest offer.  With CJ, Wood, Crews, etc I think it’s easy to sell free agents on being the piece to bring a young group into contention.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Tena is a total butcher at 3B.  Worse than Senzel.  You can't have him at 3B on a regular basis. 

maybe he didn't play the position in the minors because he can't play there, but more likely, there was a guy named Jose Ramirez ahead of him and they were trying to find him another position. He's a shortstop more or less being asked to pick up 3rd in the majors after playing ~ 15 games there over the past 3 seasons. I'm giving him a bit of slack. I don't think he had a bad rep for D, and his arm is strong enough for 3rd.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Tena is a total butcher at 3B.  Worse than Senzel.  You can't have him at 3B on a regular basis. 

The problem with being a bad team is you have to overpay for free agents.  They want more $ to come to a bad team.

3B is pretty hard, but if you have the athletic skill to play SS, you can probably play 3B.  It just takes work on types of balls you don't see up the middle.   

From 2022-2024, Nationals are third worst in defensive fWAR.

I don't trust Martinez at this point to fix up the squad defensively. I don't get it. It shouldn't be this bad.

Martinez can't make chicken salad out of chicken crap.  They've had a lot of guys in that time who were playing positions that were just outside their skills.  Young is good, but who else have they had that is actually above average at their position?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

off the top of my head, the only guy they signed who could field well was Candelario

[nobleisthyname]

Gallo's pretty good with a glove. Not that he's played much so doesn't really count.

[Slateman]

Give Tena the offseason to get better at third. I'd rather him start next season there then go get some free agent placeholder for half a season

[GataNats]

If House isn’t starting at third right out of the gate, we are the dumbest franchise in the history of the game

[Elvir Ovcina]

there are a lot fewer spots  to do the "sign a bounceback candidate and hope to flip him" in 2025 than there used to be. This year, there was really only Abrams and Ruiz who were lock down sure to start guys that would not be traded. Garcia didn't even have 2nd locked down. Plenty of room for sign-nees Rosario, Winker, Senzel, etc... to go with short timers like Thomas and the backend of the bullpen who could be traded. Next year, there's probably just DH/1B/3B, and there's a decent chance that there are good in-house candidates already on board for 2 or 3 of those slots. If we do decide to sign a DH/1B, it's more likely to be a higher end multi-year guy than it is a guy who is barely better than Tena / Yepez / Chaparro.

There's more room on the pitching side.  Gore, Irvin, and a series of question marks isn't much of a rotation. 

[Smithian]

Martinez can't make chicken salad out of chicken crap.  They've had a lot of guys in that time who were playing positions that were just outside their skills.  Young is good, but who else have they had that is actually above average at their position?

Going back to the days when Dusty Baker was hesitant to call up Trea Turner, I believe Rizzo gives his managers a lot of influence on who is ultimately called up and signed for the active roster. I certainly think Martinez being in season 7 has influence.

I remember back in the Riggleman days it was all pitching and defense. Ever since the second they tossed Mike Morse in the corner OF, this franchise has consistently chose bat over defense in almost every instance.

Going back to 2018, this club is fifth worst in defensive fWAR. Eye test would make them seem worse. Below average in baserunning fWAR. Eye test would be worse until maybe this season.

We’re never going to field a team that does the small things right under this current management structure. It’s not what they want to do. It is fine if they built a lineup that can outslug everyone and dominant pitching that hides bad defense. it worked in 2019!

Maybe everything breaks right and a scary homegrown middle of the order built around Wood, Crews, House, FA DH supplemented by a homegrown pitching core where Nats can march out a solid arm every day fixes everything. Personally, I wish we could start fostering a culture where we occasionally pick one guy for defense and baserunning over the guy with the bigger bat. It’s why I’m so defensive of Jacob Young.

[Smithian]

If House isn’t starting at third right out of the gate, we are the dumbest franchise in the history of the game

He isn’t hitting that great that he has to be called up. Tena has the opportunity to earn the opening day spot and behind him Cayden Wallace and Brady House can compete for first man up if he falters.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

There's more room on the pitching side.  Gore, Irvin, and a series of question marks isn't much of a rotation. 

There's room. but I don't expect more than 1 starter, a top end guy, to be signed. Maybe a second if they like Williams and he wants a 1 year deal to prove himself again. So, Ace-Irvin-Gore-Parker/Herz-Williams might be how they go, but I suspect they are going to want to run auditions for a couple rotation spots among Parker, Herz, Cavalli, Lord, Stuart, and Lara, with maybe Susana or Sykora getting a look at the end of the year.

Parker has a 4.26 ERA, with defense independent and expected numbers in that range.  That's 4th starter material. Not that he can't be beat out, it's more that I don't see a need for auditioning bounceback guys for that slot as needed. 

[nobleisthyname]

Yeah you can never really have enough pitching, and no one is looking like a front of the rotation guy but with all the names JCA mentioned I feel like the Nats actually have pretty decent pitching depth between the majors and high minors.