2023-24 free agency, trades, and signings

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sale is as washed as they come

Fangraphs now has the Braves with both the #1 projected rotation and lineup. They project sale for 140ip

his stuff is still good and he's tough to hit. The problem is getting the innings out of him. I question the 140. He was pretty decent last year, and any pitching you buy via FA or trade is expensive. This deal leaves them below the 3rd tax threshold by about $5 million per Cot's, and a bit less than $1.5 million per roster resource.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xzd88I7vEWyqOIPGSDbtYlYjzCtUy24Vx7biuG5Eshc/edit#gid=1520401900
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/braves

Had they simply signed one of the $12 million arms this offseason, they may have tripped the 3rd level luxury tax. they will be a second time payer. That's the Lance Lynn / Luis Severino / Kenta Maeda / Tyler Mahle class of pitchers. They did sign Reynaldo Lopez in that range. Of those, I like Sale's upside, or maybe Severino. Of course, they would not have had to give up Grissom.

[Slateman]

his stuff is still good and he's tough to hit. The problem is getting the innings out of him. I question the 140. He was pretty decent last year, and any pitching you buy via FA or trade is expensive. This deal leaves them below the 3rd tax threshold by about $5 million per Cot's, and a bit less than $1.5 million per roster resource.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xzd88I7vEWyqOIPGSDbtYlYjzCtUy24Vx7biuG5Eshc/edit#gid=1520401900
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/braves

Had they simply signed one of the $12 million arms this offseason, they may have tripped the 3rd level luxury tax. they will be a second time payer. That's the Lance Lynn / Luis Severino / Kenta Maeda / Tyler Mahle class of pitchers. They did sign Reynaldo Lopez in that range. Of those, I like Sale's upside, or maybe Severino. Of course, they would not have had to give up Grissom.

140 out of Sale and 165 out of Charlie Morton seems like a pipe dream. Of that happens, the Braves will win 130 games

[JCA-CrystalCity]

140 out of Sale and 165 out of Charlie Morton seems like a pipe dream. Of that happens, the Braves will win 130 games

and still don't get home field advantage when they play the dodgers in the NLCS.

What I like about the Braves is that, while they have tons of injury risk in the starting staff, they have decided the way to deal with it is to have a bunch of options to slide in and out of the rotation rather than give 2-3 rotation slots to mediocre guys. Maybe they hit well enough so they could afford mediocre innings eaters for 40-60% of their regular season starts, but I think the plan is to have at least 2, maybe 3-4 of the health risk guys around for the playoffs. They probably are assuming a ton of regular season innings for their depth guys (Ynoa, Smith-Shawver) already on the roster.

[Slateman]

Sale is as washed as they come

https://youtu.be/kG3tfzeuEz8?si=dBXKItztdBTgmPBk

[Slateman]

and still don't get home field advantage when they play the dodgers in the NLCS.

What I like about the Braves is that, while they have tons of injury risk in the starting staff, they have decided the way to deal with it is to have a bunch of options to slide in and out of the rotation rather than give 2-3 rotation slots to mediocre guys. Maybe they hit well enough so they could afford mediocre innings eaters for 40-60% of their regular season starts, but I think the plan is to have at least 2, maybe 3-4 of the health risk guys around for the playoffs. They probably are assuming a ton of regular season innings for their depth guys (Ynoa, Smith-Shawver) already on the roster.

Dodgers aint making the NLCS. Their pitching isnt exactly bullet proof either.

[Five Banners]

Dodgers aint making the NLCS. Their pitching isnt exactly bullet proof either.

Nightmare of a season

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Barves agree to an extension with Sale. $38 million for 2 years, with an option for a 3rd at $18 million. The CBT implications help the Barves this year.

Under the current collective bargaining agreement, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded to reflect what remains of the contract. That means that Sale was going to have a $27.5MM CBT hit prior to this deal, with the Sox absorbing $17MM of that. But that will now drop to $19MM, leaving just $2MM on Atlanta’s CBT ledger this year but $19MM next year. Going into today, the club’s CBT figure was at $276MM, per Roster Resource. That’s right against the third tax threshold of $277MM, which is a notable line to cross. Clubs that go over the third threshold have their top pick in the next draft pushed back by 10 slots, in addition to an increased tax rate. By lowering Sale’s CBT hit, the club will have a bit more breathing room to make more moves, either now or during the season.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/braves-chris-sale-agree-to-two-year-deal.html

[JCA-CrystalCity]

WE don't have a retirement thread, but because Michael Brantley was a free agent and now is not available, I suppose it can go here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/michael-brantley-to-retire.html

[Senatorswin]

Robbie Ray to Giants from the Mariners for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani.

Former Nat minor leaguer.

[Slateman]

Mariner acquire outfielder Luke Raley from the Rays for infielder José Caballero

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Mariner acquire outfielder Luke Raley from the Rays for infielder José Caballero

are they trying him at SS?

[imref]

Robbie Ray to Giants from the Mariners for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani.

Former Nat minor leaguer.

Seems like a risky move for the Giants as Ray missed almost all of last year and isn't expected back until the summer. He can also opt out of his deal after the upcoming season.

[Slateman]

are they trying him at SS?

Raley? No. Mariners desperately need OF help.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Raley? No. Mariners desperately need OF help.

Caballero. They need a SS. I think Caminero is projected there?

[Slateman]

Caballero. They need a SS. I think Caminero is projected there?

Maybe. Mostly played second.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Maybe. Mostly played second.

they are so hurt by Wander. He was their lynch-pin.

[imref]

Sean Manaea to the Mets, 2/$28 million. 4.44 ERA / 3.90 FIP last year.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sean Manaea to the Mets, 2/$28 million. 4.44 ERA / 3.90 FIP last year.

not a bad signing. Cheap for the cost of pitching this offseason. Crowd source was 2/$24.

[imref]

This is getting ridiculous:

Teoscar Hernández and the Dodgers are in agreement on a one-year, $23.5 million contract

[Natsinpwc]

This is getting ridiculous:

Carrie Underwood makes $1 million for each week that Sunday Night football song runs. Probably a few hours work. Maybe a day at most.  And it’s a terrible song. 

[Slateman]

And it’s a terrible song. 

[Natsinpwc]

It’s actually a Joan Jett song they put new lyrics to. Pink and Faith Hill did it better.

[imref]

$8.5 million deferred to be paid out 2030-2039 per ESPN. $20 million cap hit this year

[Natsinpwc]

So Imanaga to the Cubs.  $15 million a year but not sure the number of years. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So Imanaga to the Cubs.  $15 million a year but not sure the number of years. 

preliminary reports are he went for way under what had been talked about.  Very unclear reporting in MLBTR, but it's something like $30 million guaranteed with innings escalators taking it up to $80 million, mutliple seasons, "around" $15 million per year. So that sounds like 2 years at $15 million, with maybe a series of vesting options out to 5 years.?  Some estimates had him at 5 years, $100 million, so the market must have collapsed.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/cubs-to-sign-shota-imanaga.html

Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on X) reported the deal will pay around $15MM annually over multiple seasons. That surprisingly takes the form of a two-year guarantee in the $30MM range, reports Jim Bowden of the Athletic (X link). Bowden and Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link) each suggest the contract contains various team/player options and escalators and could max out around $80MM.

It’s the first MLB free agent pickup of the offseason for the Cubs. It’s a big acquisition, as the southpaw is one of the more intriguing pitchers in this year’s class. That makes the initially reported financial terms unexpected. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract. Reporting in recent weeks had suggested he could top $100MM. It’s difficult to fully judge the deal until the specific option structure is reported, but an approximate $80MM maximum value conditional on an innings or appearances threshold would be below general expectations.

He's seen as a mid-rotation except by Kyle Glaser at BA, who calls him a #4/#5. Critical of his breaking stuff.