2023-24 free agency, trades, and signings

[nobleisthyname]

Bryce Harper is saying he wants an extension with the Phillies. He's signed through his age-38 season. I'm not sure what he is hoping to accomplish unless he's finally realizing that he's underpaid and is looking for a way around it. The Phillies have been over the cap the last two years and have absolutely no incentive to redo his deal.

I mentioned in the other thread but he could be doing it to lower his AAV in exchange for more total compensation. Helps the Phillies in regards to the luxury tax.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

Dodgers

10 years, 700 million

https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1733579104916492574?s=46&t=eZQOkEBzAB8XR0_j5bQcHg

Good thing they punished the teams who can't spend like the Dodgers with this utterly stupid draft lottery to make things fair

[Five Banners]

Shohei is literally two players though. I’m sure agents will try, but I don’t see his contract being especially useful as a reference point for any guys who aren’t themselves elite two way players.

This

[Count Walewski]

Soto is going to get 12 yrs/$600M now with an opt out after year 5 or something.  make $250 mil over 5 years and test the market again at 31

Maybe if he develops two really good breaking pitches.

(Also, Ohtani has no opt-out in his Dodgers deal)

[Natsinpwc]

I think that, for AAV purposes, there's a net present value calculation for the stream of payments, then that is divided over the number of playing years. That's why the CBT hit on Strasburg, Max, and Corbin is a bit less than an undiscounted average of the total dollars.

Ok.  I guess we will see what the AAV will be. If they are close to one of those luxury tax lines could make a difference.

[zimm_da_kid]

harper got less than half of what ohtani got.  Harper's deal is a steal

[Natsinpwc]

I guess the Dodgers are certain he can come back to pitching in 2025 and beyond.  Otherwise it’s a big overpay. I’d like to thank the Blue Jays for driving up the price!

So who gets Yamamoto?

[Natsinpwc]

Yep. Minimum of 50 million AAV. Probably the Cubs at this point.

Yanks won’t want to give him up if he has a good year. And Cohen will want to outbid them.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Shohei is literally two players though. I’m sure agents will try, but I don’t see his contract being especially useful as a reference point for any guys who aren’t themselves elite two way players.

What do you figure he's worth for each component? A $25 million pitcher and a $40 million player, with an extra $5 million for saving a roster spot?

Soto is younger and, except for last year, has always had a higher (or equal) wOBA. He'll hit FA 2 years younger than Ohtani. I don't see how he gets less than $40 million / year AAV, and you could make a case for closer to $45 million.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Good thing they punished the teams who can't spend like the Dodgers with this utterly stupid draft lottery to make things fair

That narrow payers are punished the same as the huge revenue payers seems weird.

[imref]

Interesting that shohei announces the deal while the army and navy are distracted

[Slateman]

Shohei is literally two players though. I’m sure agents will try, but I don’t see his contract being especially useful as a reference point for any guys who aren’t themselves elite two way players.

He has been two players. I seriously doubt he's a pitcher after five years.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He has been two players. I seriously doubt he's a pitcher after five years.

they are installing one of those arms like Bucky Barnes got after his surgery.

[nfotiu]

He has been two players. I seriously doubt he's a pitcher after five years.

I'd be pretty shocked if he pitches close to 5 seasons.   

What do you figure he's worth for each component? A $25 million pitcher and a $40 million player, with an extra $5 million for saving a roster spot?

He seems way overvalued as a pitcher.    Serious elbow issues 5 years after TJ, and is out a year with a surgery without a huge track record and sounds more like a band aid.  He's only made it through 1 maybe 2 full seasons.   I don't think he has near the track record of a 2020 pitcher as Strasburg and injury outlook is probably worse than Strasburg at the moment we signed his 2020 contract.   Strasburg wasn't getting anywhere near that deal if he was going to be out for the first year though.   

Is there any FA pitcher who was signed to a big deal knowing he couldn't pitch the first year?

[KV]

This is just crazy money. Close to 3/4 of a BILLION dollars? Insane.

[Slateman]

This is just crazy money. Close to 3/4 of a BILLION dollars? Insane.

Meh, its really not that big of a deal considering how much money the Dodgers will make off Ohtani.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'd be pretty shocked if he pitches close to 5 seasons.   

He seems way overvalued as a pitcher.    Serious elbow issues 5 years after TJ, and is out a year with a surgery without a huge track record and sounds more like a band aid.  He's only made it through 1 maybe 2 full seasons.   I don't think he has near the track record of a 2020 pitcher as Strasburg and injury outlook is probably worse than Strasburg at the moment we signed his 2020 contract.   Strasburg wasn't getting anywhere near that deal if he was going to be out for the first year though.   

Is there any FA pitcher who was signed to a big deal knowing he couldn't pitch the first year?

This post is the correct answer.  The value is him as a hitter - and if he really can't pitch at all, an outfielder - and the marketing.  There's no reasonable expectation of him ever being a frontline starter again.  There's exactly one player with 2 UCL repairs who has ever had multiple above-average seasons as a starter following the second repair (Eovaldi).

[Natsinpwc]

This post is the correct answer.  The value is him as a hitter - and if he really can't pitch at all, an outfielder - and the marketing.  There's no reasonable expectation of him ever being a frontline starter again.  There's exactly one player with 2 UCL repairs who has ever had multiple above-average seasons as a starter following the second repair (Eovaldi).

Then $65 million AAV or whatever it will be is a major overpay for on field production.  Of course the Dodgers will get lots of off the field benefits but the salary still makes roster construction hard. 

Betts...Freeman...Ohtani....and Dave Roberts still the manager.  What a concept. 

[Slateman]

Then $65 million AAV or whatever it will be is a major overpay for on field production.  Of course the Dodgers will get lots of off the field benefits but the salary still makes roster construction hard. 

Betts...Freeman...Ohtani....and Dave Roberts still the manager.  What a concept. 

Does it make it hard? I mean, between LA's money and Friedman's abilities, I dont think it will be an issue. Ohtani will generate more than enough money to cover luxury tax costs. That contract doesnt prohibit them from signing anyone else they want.

[Natsinpwc]

Does it make it hard? I mean, between LA's money and Friedman's abilities, I dont think it will be an issue. Ohtani will generate more than enough money to cover luxury tax costs. That contract doesnt prohibit them from signing anyone else they want.

Well yes it does. Why are there reports that he deferred money to help them?  Everyone has limits on what they will spend?  They still need pitching.  Let’s see what happens.

[Natsinpwc]

I mean the Dodgers could have outbid the Phillies for Nola. Say $30 million a year. And then Rodriguez for $20 million.  $50 million for two top of the line starters.  Dodgers were second in runs scored per game last year.  14th in team ERA. 

[imref]

Passan:

I’m going to explain why Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers will not equal $700 million in terms of MLB accounting or the present-day value of the deal.

When money in a contract is deferred, the competitive-balance tax number — the luxury tax — is discounted. With a source saying a “majority” of Ohtani’s contract is deferred, the discount could be significant. Typically, a CBT number is the average annual value of a deal — in this case $70 million. But depending on the size and length of the deferrals, Ohtani’s CBT number is likelier to wind up in the $40-50 million-a-year range, an enormous benefit for the Dodgers.

The deferrals also affect the net present value of the deal. There’s a rule of thumb across all walks of life: Money today is more valuable than money tomorrow, inflation being what it is. When you defer money, you’re taking less. The Dodgers are operating in an environment in which the prime rate is 8.5%. And with money today being so pricey, it lowers the present-day value of the deal by a significant margin.

Regardless, in the end, Shohei Ohtani will be paid 700 million US dollars by the Dodgers. It’s an obscene amount of money. It’s just going to be seen as less by the league’s accounting — and will allow the Dodgers to add even more around Ohtani as they try to win a championship.

[Senatorswin]

It was interesting reading the Dodger and Blue Jays boards. Around 2:00 today both boards thought Ohtani was going to Toronto. The Dodger board was bad mouthing the Blue Jay fans, the Dodger GM and Roberts. The Blue Jay board was coming up with quotes it was a done deal with Toronto. Both boards were freaking out Friday with most just wishing it were over. Afterwards Dodger fans were going crazy while a lot of Blue Jay fans were either saying it was too much to spend or they always come in second.

The other thing is the Dodger board has some really bad language.

[imref]

Another explanation:

So, IF (again, a total guess!) we assume Ohtani gets $400M deferred over 40 years, with successive $10M payments applying to a quarter of each season, in order, the present value of his contract is ~$609.3M. That drops his AAV for CBT purposes down to $60.93M

[Five Banners]

It was interesting reading the Dodger and Blue Jays boards. Around 2:00 today both boards thought Ohtani was going to Toronto. The Dodger board was bad mouthing the Blue Jay fans, the Dodger GM and Roberts. The Blue Jay board was coming up with quotes it was a done deal with Toronto. Both boards were freaking out Friday with most just wishing it were over. Afterwards Dodger fans were going crazy while a lot of Blue Jay fans were either saying it was too much to spend or they always come in second.

This calls for a palate cleanser (and base clearer)