2024 roster speculation

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Just being a little OCD here but your last sentence in the table only gave me credit for homers in games 1 & 10 but he also homered in game 6 in the ninth inning.

Bottom line is of his 10 HR’s 8 were solo shots and three of those were in garbage time.

yes. The last line was me remembering and posting before being exhaustive. That 5th inning homer vs. the Marlins (#7) also was garbage time

[JCA-CrystalCity]

- Brzykcy is "injured - full season", so he's beyond the 60-day IL. He's on the Harrisburg roster. Is there a need to put him on the 40-man before he's recovered?

- Darren Baker is an "interesting player" at Rochester.

w/r/t Brzykcy, by rule he's either add to the 40 man or expose to rule 5. Query whether he'd be taken coming off an arm injury. Ward was, but he had pitched a bit. 5

As for Baker, he does not have to be added this offseason. What I imagine will happen is he will compete for 2nd base in camp, and if he wins the job (or a backup job), then he'll be added when somebody like Cavalli is put on the 60 day IL.

[imref]

yeah, Cavalli is going to start the season on the 60-day IL barring a miracle.  Garrett could open on the 60-day as well.

they'll free up some other spots: Edwards, Matt Cronin probably gets DFA'd, there are some other pitchers that could be DFA'd to get them off the 40-man like Munoz, Willingham, and La Sorsa. Pineda is most definitely getting DFA'd as is Jeter Downs. Maybe Blankenhorn and Rutherford too.

Plenty of 40-man spots to go around.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Not La Sorsa. Pitches with a left arm. Need more than Robert Hunter Jerry Garcia

[welch]

Biggest empty spots: 3B and LF. Ah, for a couple seasons of Candelario! And who hits from LF before Crews and Wood can make the majors?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Biggest empty spots: 3B and LF. Ah, for a couple seasons of Candelario! And who hits from LF before Crews and Wood can make the majors?

Canha would be a great signing, but I've said that before. Plays 1st as well as the OF. Old enough not to demand too many years.

[welch]

Canha would be a great signing, but I've said that before. Plays 1st as well as the OF. Old enough not to demand too many years.

Is Canha owed $15 million next year, or only to finish this year? (Have to look that up...) A few days ago, I called Canha "the rich man's Corey Dickerson" after I saw his contract. Don't remember if it carries to next year

Ah... "signed through 2023...earliest FA 2024. He made $13 million last year and again this year.

So Candy and Canha for both 3B and LF and the Nats are set.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canhama01.shtml

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Is Canha owed $15 million next year, or only to finish this year? (Have to look that up...) A few days ago, I called Canha "the rich man's Corey Dickerson" after I saw his contract. Don't remember if it carries to next year

Ah... "signed through 2023...earliest FA 2024. He made $13 million last year and again this year.

So Candy and Canha for both 3B and LF and the Nats are set.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canhama01.shtml

Canha has an $11.5 million team option with a $2 million buyout. MLBTR speculates that his option will not be picked up.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/previewing-the-2023-24-free-agent-class-corner-outfield.html

The Brewers have an $11.5MM option on Canha that comes with a $2MM buyout. It’s a $9.5MM decision that figures to be borderline for a small-market Milwaukee club that has a penchant for taking the cautious route with regard to option decisions. It’s a reasonable sum in a vacuum, as Canha has performed well. He’s hitting .264/.360/.406 in 445 plate appearances, including a stellar .303/.394/.459 over 36 games since a deadline trade that sent from the Mets to the Brew Crew.

Even in his mid-30s, Canha is a good offensive player. He draws plenty of walks and has cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 16% this year. He doesn’t have prototypical power for a corner outfielder/first baseman, but he’s adept at getting on base. If Milwaukee decided not to commit the $9.5MM themselves, Canha could probably find something similar on the open market.

[GataNats]

Don’t need to add anyone in their mid thirties

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Don’t need to add anyone in their mid thirties

Just a fill in, mostly in the corners and 1st, for a year or two until the minor league wave fully arrives. I'd gladly pay $10 million AAV over 2 years for a guy who hasn't had an OBP below .358 in the past 5 years. Still cranking out well above average production even with a power drop to Eaton levels.

Frankly, a mid-30s productive corner bat who won't break the bank is precisely what this team needs next year as guys like Morales, Wood, Pinckney, and Lile (and probably House and even Crews) get another half season or more in the minors.

[Slateman]

w/r/t Brzykcy, by rule he's either add to the 40 man or expose to rule 5. Query whether he'd be taken coming off an arm injury. Ward was, but he had pitched a bit. 5

As for Baker, he does not have to be added this offseason. What I imagine will happen is he will compete for 2nd base in camp, and if he wins the job (or a backup job), then he'll be added when somebody like Cavalli is put on the 60 day IL.

Dude coming off an all season forearm injury? I'd expose him

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Dude coming off an all season forearm injury? I'd expose him

that's probably the play. I do think there's a little risk a team would draft him because (1) he throws lefty, (2) easy to stash a reliever, and (3) he can be put on the 60 day IL at the start of the year. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/previewing-the-2023-24-free-agent-class-starting-pitcher.html

Rotation options. there's a cluster of guys who will probably get 4 or more years, $100 million plus offers (jordan montgomery, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, plus Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be posted), then there's some bounce back plays, like Severino, who might take a short contract and hope to rebuild value. Lorenzen and Flaherty are others. I'd include Giolito as a bounce back but they have him as a top of rotation guy. I'd also include Clevinger even though they have him as "back of the rotation."

I'd be curious about whether folks think we should try to bring in a top of the rotation guy for multiple years, or maybe a roll the dice kind of guy?

[Senatorswin]

It sounds like Davey is counting on Williams for next year too:

"The more he can push his body through this year, he knows what he has to do over the winter to get through it next year. He’s been awesome, a guy that takes the ball.”

[Natsinpwc]

They’re not going to sign anyone other than a fringe guy they can keep at Triple A for insurance. Corbin and Williams are both under contract so will start. Gray and Gore are no brainer. Irvin looks serviceable. Cavalli middle of the year. Adon still under team control and also Rutledge. Think they ride out another year with what they have. Corbin and Williams off the books in 2025 so that’s maybe when you look to sign a free agent.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

They’re not going to sign anyone other than a fringe guy they can keep at Triple A for insurance. Corbin and Williams are both under contract so will start. Gray and Gore are no brainer. Irvin looks serviceable. Cavalli middle of the year. Adon still under team control and also Rutledge. Think they ride out another year with what they have. Corbin and Williams off the books in 2025 so that’s maybe when you look to sign a free agent.

the only reason to question that is that there's an unusual number of top of the rotation candidates as well as dice roll gambles. You don't always get the players available when you want them ideally. Bringing on the next horse like Montgomery maybe a year early may make sense, especially if you want to be on the fringe of the wild card competition with 60th percentile outcomes.

[aspenbubba]

They’re not going to sign anyone other than a fringe guy they can keep at Triple A for insurance. Corbin and Williams are both under contract so will start. Gray and Gore are no brainer. Irvin looks serviceable. Cavalli middle of the year. Adon still under team control and also Rutledge. Think they ride out another year with what they have. Corbin and Williams off the books in 2025 so that’s maybe when you look to sign a free agent.

So you’re starting KieBUST on 3rd and who is on 1B (Smith) and you’re counting on Robles in CF? I just don’t think remaining status quo will get you to 70 wins next year. I just don’t see any of the prospects being promoted to the big club until later in the year except for Lipscomb. I don’t see Alu beating out Vargas or Chavis assuming Garcia starts at 2B. They need a 3B LF and a 1B as placeholders or the good will that was generated this year will subside.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So you’re starting KieBUST on 3rd and who is on 1B (Smith) and you’re counting on Robles in CF? I just don’t think remaining status quo will get you to 70 wins next year. I just don’t see any of the prospects being promoted to the big club until later in the year except for Lipscomb. I don’t see Alu beating out Vargas or Chavis assuming Garcia starts at 2B. They need a 3B LF and a 1B as placeholders or the good will that was generated this year will subside.

sounds like he was focused on starting pitching, not the whole roster, but I think generally he's expecting them to play it conservative and to see what holes remain after the rookies start to show up. Think 2011.

Even if they hope that Kieboom or Alu are short-term fill ins for 3rd, i can't imagine not having a vet or two around to challenge. Heck, Chavis deserves as much a shot as those guys next year. Only surprise would be Every Day Every Play; if he's back, then he's a multi-position backup and not a starting candidate. I suspect that if they are just waiting for House / Lipscomb / Morales to take over 3rd, they will still bring in a vet and hope for a Candy-like good half year then a trade. I'll be major disappointed if, by the end of next year, one of the better prospects is not the starting 3rd baseman.

[Slateman]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/previewing-the-2023-24-free-agent-class-starting-pitcher.html

Rotation options. there's a cluster of guys who will probably get 4 or more years, $100 million plus offers (jordan montgomery, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, plus Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be posted), then there's some bounce back plays, like Severino, who might take a short contract and hope to rebuild value. Lorenzen and Flaherty are others. I'd include Giolito as a bounce back but they have him as a top of rotation guy. I'd also include Clevinger even though they have him as "back of the rotation."

I'd be curious about whether folks think we should try to bring in a top of the rotation guy for multiple years, or maybe a roll the dice kind of guy?

Ohtani isnt pitching next year
Giolito isnt a front of the rotation guy
Sonny Gray is 34
Nola isnt a front of the rotation guy any more

That leaves Snell and Montgomery. I dont know that I consider Montgomery a FotR guy either.

If you sign anyone to anything other than a ST invite, you have to be willing to put Williams and/or Corbin in the pen. And I dont know that Rizzo is willing to do that. Gray, Gore, and Cavalli are startint, if they're healthy. Irvin has probably earned a starting spot. You add a guy like Montgomery or Clevinger, and you gotta do something with the two 5+ ERAs.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Snell is just a fantasy, and i don't see the Nats making a play for Yamamoto even if they do go after pitching. Montgomery and Nola would be the most likelies. Severino on a 1 year deal would be interesting if we don't go for a longer term rotation piece.

Cavalli isn't going to be here until the second half of the year. I agree Irvin has earned a slot, so, short of a 6 man rotation, one of Williams or Corbin would be squeezed into the bullpen or, in Williams's case, possibly dealt as a swing man with a minor subsidy.

Hey, Slate - I'm surprised you aren't all over a Corbin to the pen move.

[Slateman]

I am all over a Corbin to the pen move. But they wont do it to bring in a guy like Severino. And I have seen nothing from ownership that indicates they're willing to overpay for Nola or Montgomery.

[Senatorswin]

This also from Davey:

"We went to that six-man rotation, which definitely helped. In the future, it’s something we’re really going to look at.”

[JCA-CrystalCity]

6 man rotations are Exhibit A as to why there should be expansion.

[Senatorswin]

6 man rotations are Exhibit A as to why there should be expansion.

Now that the A's and Rays are decided I guess they'll be looking at expansion within the next couple of years.

[welch]

This might have been posted already, but I must have blindly read past it. Nats need a LF who can hit, and especially hit, especially slug enough to take pressure off of Lane Thomas.

Free agent corner outfielders:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/previewing-the-2023-24-free-agent-class-corner-outfield.html