2024 roster speculation

[JCA-CrystalCity]

i'd bet a dollar that Crews is our opening day CF.  There's every incentive to have him here next year to try and get an additional international or draft pick for a top-3 RoY finish. And he has to be better than Call, Blankenhorn,  or Rutherford. I don't think they keep Robles.

the discussion today kind of kicked off based on Svrluga's speculation. In his view, Crews has shown enough gaps that he needs to start in AA. That's pretty harsh, but as much as the "win RoTY and get an extra pick" is an incentive, you could probably do a calculation of the value of nearly an extra year of control for a high end prospect vs. the value of the draft choice.  It would not surprise me if the value still favors keeping control of Crews for an extra 85% of a season.

[Natsinpwc]

i'd bet a dollar that Crews is our opening day CF.  There's every incentive to have him here next year to try and get an additional international or draft pick for a top-3 RoY finish. And he has to be better than Call, Blankenhorn,  or Rutherford. I don't think they keep Robles.

Probably depends how he does on spring training. Bryce I believe was called up in May 2012 and won ROY.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

and if Garrett recovers, I could see Garrett in one corner, Thomas in the other, and Young as the CF starter. Blankenhorn is not a bad backup as that is a righty-heavy line up. Alu also I think is in the team plans, although I don't know where. Who is injured coming out of spring matters.

As for Robles, if his back is sound, and that is a big if, he's relatively cheap for a starter in CF, especially if they decide not to pay for a free agent.

[nobleisthyname]

Yes I would say Rutledge has passed him. Cavalli already looked like he had control issues before the surgery.

IIRC he was dominant in Spring Training. You of course have to take ST stats with a healthy grain of salt but he at least didn't have command issues then.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I dont know that I consider Montgomery a FotR guy either.

You add a guy like Montgomery or Clevinger, and you gotta do something with the two 5+ ERAs.

I will be curious what sort of deals these guys get. I kind of buy they aren't front of the rotation guys, but, otoh, do they get front of the rotation money? Given the depth of the pitching class, I don't think so. Getting back to Svrluga's article today, while you maybe don't expect the Nats to go for a front-line guy, a veteran #2/#3 might be the right move now, especially if you can bring them in for 3-4 years in the low $20MM AAV range. That kind of spending is not unrealistic if Marky Mark and the In-laws can cut a deal to stretch out Strasburg's payments.

[Five Banners]

Marky Mark and the In-laws

Must be getting old; I remember when they were The Committee

[Slateman]

Yes I would say Rutledge has passed him. Cavalli already looked like he had control issues before the surgery.

Naw. Rutledge looks to be a 4/5 unless something big happens. Cavalli had fine control in Triple A. He got one start at the MLB level.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Naw. Rutledge looks to be a 4/5 unless something big happens. Cavalli had fine control in Triple A. He got one start at the MLB level.

and a start or two this spring, I think. It was "oh, wow, he looks great" then "OMG, why is it we can't have good things."

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Vargas haters may ignore this article. Leo Morganstern:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ildemaro-vargas-makes-contact-and-signs-a-contract/

He notes Baseball Prospectus loves his offense, putting him among the elite hitters in baseball. The reason has to do with absurdly good contact skills this year with near average exit velocity.

Vargas has always been a contact hitter, but he has reached a whole new level in 2023. In just over 600 plate appearances between 2017–22, the switch-hitter struck out 13.4% of the time — still excellent, but not exactly noteworthy. Even in his minor league career, he still struck out in 8.8% of trips to the plate. But this year, in his first real taste of semi-regular playing time (and his first full-year job with a single team), his plate discipline has never looked better. He is one of only two players, along with Arraez, to go 13 consecutive games without a strikeout. On top of that, his walk rate is up, too; he’s walking 6.8% of the time, compared to a 4.3% career rate entering the season. The only players with a higher walk-to-strikeout ratio this year are Arraez, Acuña, Soto, José Ramírez, Alex Bregman, and, um, well… Tony Kemp. Still, if your list of comps includes five Silver Sluggers, you’ve got to be doing something right.
...
Vargas doesn’t hit the ball hard, but he makes significantly harder contact than his contact-hitting compatriots. His maximum exit velocity would rank in the 44th percentile among qualified hitters. No one is calling that good, per se, but it puts him in a whole different category than guys like Kemp and Arraez, who rank last and second-last, respectively, among qualified batters in maxEV. That means something, even for a hitter with a .245/.299/.354 slash line, because hitting the ball hard is one of those skills you can’t really teach, especially to a guy who’s already on the wrong side of 30.

So, why does he stink? the author notes his low line drive rate and high ground ball rate is holding him back, and that while the former fluctuates and is below his career, he's always had a problem elevating the ball. his gb rate this year, 57%, is comparable to Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw's career numbers. It's also somewhat below his career number, but that's still 51%.

Vargas has excellent bat-to-ball skills and a tad more power than you might think. He’s also a switch-hitter, another factor that works in his favor, since pitchers induce fewer groundballs without the platoon advantage. The skill he’s lacking is a big one, but, in theory, it can be learned. And even if he never learns to lift, he might still have league-average upside. Package that with average sprint speed and a plus glove at multiple infield positions, and you’ve got a pretty valuable utility man.

[hotshot]

What's Young's future in DC? Does he have one?

[imref]

What's Young's future in DC? Does he have one?

4th OF

[aspenbubba]

4th OF

Yea, but he doesn't have any pop which Call does and Robles did. Probably the fastest guy on the team ,good defender and a decent arm.

[Natsinpwc]

Yea, but he doesn't have any pop which Call does and Robles did. Probably the fastest guy on the team ,good defender and a decent arm.

Call’s slugging this year was .306. That is pop?  Heaven help us.

[Slateman]

What's Young's future in DC? Does he have one?

Nope

[imref]

Yea, but he doesn't have any pop which Call does and Robles did. Probably the fastest guy on the team ,good defender and a decent arm.

I'd take him over Call.

I don't think Robles will be back next year. Crews, Thomas, and a one-year FA are your opening day OF IMHO.

[aspenbubba]

Call’s slugging this year was .306. That is pop?  Heaven help us.

8 HR’s and over a full season I doubt if Young will have more than 4. And I would take Young over Call. He is our 4tH OF.

[Natsinpwc]

8 HR’s and over a full season I doubt if Young will have more than 4. And I would take Young over Call. He is our 4tH OF.

True but Young has half the number of doubles in a quarter of the at bats.  Let’s face it. Neither one of these dudes has any pop in his bat.  If they do then Dom Smith is a slugger.

[aspenbubba]

True but Young has half the number of doubles in a quarter of the at bats.  Let’s face it. Neither one of these dudes has any pop in his bat.  If they do then Dom Smith is a slugger.

Are you referring to my favorite Nat the guy I call Mr. Clutch because he is other worldly with RISP?

[Slateman]

If the plan is just a placeholder until Morales/House/,Lipscomb come up, then I dont have a problem with Kieboom starting at third. If Garcia can get like 10 chances, I dont see why Kieboom cant have another.

[Natsinpwc]

Are you referring to my favorite Nat the guy I call Mr. Clutch because he is other worldly with RISP?

Yep. Your 2024 1B Dom Smith.  Can’t believe the Mets went with Alonso over Dom. 

[imref]

just need a 14 win improvement next year and we're in the wild card hunt. Should be able to do that by replacing Corbin and Williams in the rotation and upgrading a CO and 1B.

[Senatorswin]

On August 30th the Nationals were 4.5 games behind the Marlins. The Marlins made the playoffs.

[Senatorswin]

One thing for sure and for certain. The Nats have to improve against the Miami Marlins. Figure out how to beat them and they have a real good chance to improve. 2-11 IN 2023.

[Slateman]

On August 30th the Nationals were 4.5 games behind the Marlins. The Marlins made the playoffs.

On October 1 we are 13.5 games back

[aspenbubba]

just need a 14 win improvement next year and we're in the wild card hunt. Should be able to do that by replacing Corbin and Williams in the rotation and upgrading a CO and 1B.

What’s a CO.?