Author Topic: 2024 roster speculation  (Read 3603 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 41717
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #100: September 28, 2023, 01:44:40 PM »
I went over the 40 man roster and I think these guys will be dropped. Abbott, Arano, Edwards, Ferrer, Harris, Machado, Munoz, Stras, Willingham, Rutherford, Downs, Kiebust, A few will be signed to minor league contracts with a ST invite. Stras is a procedural move. Edwards is a FA.
Ferrer isn't going anywhere. He was fine for a 23 year old in his first season in the majors. I think they hang onto Willingham and Kieboom as well.

Stras is obviously not playing and hopefully works out a deal to clear him off the 40-man.

Edwards could get a minor league / ST invite offer.

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 5495
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #101: September 28, 2023, 03:42:47 PM »
Ferrer isn't going anywhere. He was fine for a 23 year old in his first season in the majors. I think they hang onto Willingham and Kieboom as well.

Stras is obviously not playing and hopefully works out a deal to clear him off the 40-man.

Edwards could get a minor league / ST invite offer.

I forgot to add Blankenhorn to the list

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 38437
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #102: September 28, 2023, 06:47:11 PM »
Aspen- your list of cuts was from the 26 man roster not the 40 man, right?

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 5495
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #103: September 28, 2023, 07:02:14 PM »
Aspen- your list of cuts was from the 26 man roster not the 40 man, right?

40 man as I googled it and did not go to ESPN

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 38437
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #104: September 28, 2023, 08:27:37 PM »
40 man as I googled it and did not go to ESPN
Ferrer, Munoz, Willingham, Machado, and Kieboom at least make it to spring. Some of them may need to be waived off the active roster, but they are on the roster over the winter

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 5495
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #105: September 28, 2023, 09:09:34 PM »
Ferrer, Munoz, Willingham, Machado, and Kieboom at least make it to spring. Some of them may need to be waived off the active roster, but they are on the roster over the winter

I'll back off on Ferrer but the others will be removed from the 40 man and could possibly get minor league contracts with an invitation to ST.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 1407
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #106: September 28, 2023, 10:15:43 PM »
Barry Svrluga has an excellent article on the state of the Nats and 2024:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/28/washington-nationals-star-face-franchise/

Offline imref

  • Posts: 41717
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #107: September 28, 2023, 11:05:13 PM »
Barry Svrluga has an excellent article on the state of the Nats and 2024:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/28/washington-nationals-star-face-franchise/
Jake Irvin gets no respect.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 38437
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #108: September 29, 2023, 09:08:55 AM »
I don' think the Svrluga article says much that others haven't pointed out. He backs up the idea that it's not likely the Nats go for a top of the rotation FA (he says don't expect Nola) or a big position player signing. Gives a hint they might go after Candy, which surprises me a bit. He pushes back a bit on the "Crews can start the year in the majors" spec by saying that, even if Wood or Crews or House is THAT GUY, they are starting next year on an island in the middle of the Susquehanna. Lauds the outfield depth, saying there's about 10 guys to follow in the minors and the Nats really only have hit on a couple.

Big difference from 2010 is that we don't have a Zimmerman established yet with a Harper and a Strasburg close. I think Abrams is more than Desmond but not THAT GUY, and Gore / Gray / Irvin is probably < Strasburg / Zimmermann (. . . Detwiler, who I guess was the next best internal back then). Maybe there's a little better depth in the rotation but not the quality yet?

I'll speculate that a Lipscomb and a Crews arrival will be the first of the minors position player crop, possibly as soon as May 2024. Lipscomb more or less for the first infield injury or fail, likely at 2nd or 3rd. I think they'd play him at 3rd even with House on the way, with him moving off 3rd to another infield position once House is in the House.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 62653
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #109: September 29, 2023, 09:23:51 AM »
Eh, I think we should pass on Candelario. There will be a bit of a bidding war and I just don't feel like getting tied down.

I'm fully prepared for Vargas to be the OD third baseman and Dom Smith to be at first.

What I need to see is either significant defensive improvement for Ruiz, or a commitment to putting him at DH or first base. Or trade him (a team like the Rays would love that contract).

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25159
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #110: September 29, 2023, 09:38:55 AM »


I'm fully prepared for Vargas to be the OD third baseman and Dom Smith to be at first.
If they are not really going to compete next season then it makes some sense to tank and get a high draft pick. 

Offline imref

  • Posts: 41717
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #111: September 29, 2023, 09:48:32 AM »
The quickest path to improvement next year is replacing Corbin, Williams and Adon in the rotation. So you start the season with Irvin, Gray, Gore, Rutledge, and a FA, with Corbin and Williams both in the bullpen and Adon enjoying more time in Rochester. You just can't have starters who have consistently posted 5+ ERAs and hope for any sort of improvement.  Cavalli isn't here until June so you need a bridge.

Beyond that, you have to improve offensively at either 1B or DH. I'm not worried about 3B or the OF because I fully expect House and Crews to be here next year (Crews on OD, House not that far afterwards) and Wood to arrive at some point in 2024 as well.

2025 is the year to compete, but there's no reason why 2024 can't be a season where we at least make some noise for a WC and hope to win 80 games minimum.


Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25159
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #112: September 29, 2023, 09:56:36 AM »
But Corbin and Williams are going to be in the rotation to start the year. Best to sign a cheap pitcher and 1B on a one or maybe two year deal. Then of you don’t compete you flip them at the deadline. If you do compete the fans can have some fun. They need 15 games improvement to make the playoffs. That’s a big push. And no evidence the current owners want to spend big again. 

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 62653
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #113: September 29, 2023, 10:11:17 AM »
If they are not really going to compete next season then it makes some sense to tank and get a high draft pick. 
Maybe, but I also expect Cavalli and Crews to be on the MLB roster for the second half. So thats not really tanking?

Offline imref

  • Posts: 41717
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #114: September 29, 2023, 10:11:23 AM »
But Corbin and Williams are going to be in the rotation to start the year. Best to sign a cheap pitcher and 1B on a one or maybe two year deal. Then of you don’t compete you flip them at the deadline. If you do compete the fans can have some fun. They need 15 games improvement to make the playoffs. That’s a big push. And no evidence the current owners want to spend big again. 
If Corbin and Williams are in the rotation, we aren't competing in 2024. I'd be willing to take a flyer on Giolito over those two.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25159
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #115: September 29, 2023, 10:13:26 AM »
Maybe, but I also expect Cavalli and Crews to be on the MLB roster for the second half. So thats not really tanking?
Well would not be surprised to see Cavalli struggle.  And can’t expect Crews to be a big time hitter at the start.
Even a top five pick would be nice.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25159
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #116: September 29, 2023, 10:15:34 AM »
If Corbin and Williams are in the rotation, we aren't competing in 2024. I'd be willing to take a flyer on Giolito over those two.
Well they are paying those guys so they will start.

It really would be better to target free agents and especially pitchers for 2025. When Corbin and Williams are off the books. Why take a Flyer on someone like Giolito and have him be a bust and hinder you from competing in 2025/6/7? 

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 62653
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #117: September 29, 2023, 10:16:08 AM »
Well would not be surprised to see Cavalli struggle.  And can’t expect Crews to be a big time hitter at the start.
Even a top five pick would be nice.
I agree on Cavalli. Command and control are usually the last things to come back after TJS. In fact, I could see him staying in Triple A past June, particularly if Rutledge is pitching well.

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 5495
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #118: September 29, 2023, 10:18:44 AM »
Am I wrong but the highest we can pick is #10 no matter what our record is?

Also , ESPN had a great article on the O's rebuild and the guys who engineered it.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25159
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #119: September 29, 2023, 10:21:28 AM »
We can’t pick higher from that in 2024. But if there are no restrictions on competing in the draft lottery for 2025 (based on their 2024 finish).

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25159
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #120: September 29, 2023, 10:22:15 AM »
I agree on Cavalli. Command and control are usually the last things to come back after TJS. In fact, I could see him staying in Triple A past June, particularly if Rutledge is pitching well.
Yes I would say Rutledge has passed him. Cavalli already looked like he had control issues before the surgery.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25159
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #121: September 29, 2023, 10:28:52 AM »
I think you can count on Crews sometime next season but counting on Wood and House is not a sure thing.  Both could end up as busts or even just mediocre major leaguers. Odds are one of them will. Don’t forget Kieboom looked like a sure thing that stage of his minor league career.  Let’s see how they do in double A beginning of next season. Some guys who tear up the minors just don’t make it in MLB. And the experts don’t know why or else they would not rank guys so high. Dom Brown comes to mind as a bust although he actually made the all star game one year. Torkelson looks like an average MLB hitter.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 41717
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #122: September 29, 2023, 10:48:13 AM »
We can’t pick higher from that in 2024. But if there are no restrictions on competing in the draft lottery for 2025 (based on their 2024 finish).

there is still an argument to be made for tanking in 2024 to have a shot at Ethan Holliday in 2025. :)

Offline Five Banners

  • Posts: 2108
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #123: September 29, 2023, 10:50:08 AM »


He pushes back a bit on the "Crews can start the year in the majors" spec by saying that, even if Wood or Crews or House is THAT GUY, they are starting next year on an island in the middle of the Susquehanna.


Given what was recently shared about them having skunk delays at that field, learning to deal with polecats in a professional situation can be a valuable team building experience

Offline imref

  • Posts: 41717
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Re: 2024 roster speculation
« Reply #124: September 29, 2023, 10:53:00 AM »
i'd bet a dollar that Crews is our opening day CF.  There's every incentive to have him here next year to try and get an additional international or draft pick for a top-3 RoY finish. And he has to be better than Call, Blankenhorn,  or Rutherford. I don't think they keep Robles.