2024 roster speculation

[Natsinpwc]

Are the Lerners going to spend like $45 million next year for Bellinger and Hoskins? 

[imref]

Are the Lerners going to spend like $45 million next year for Bellinger and Hoskins? 

Sunshine Squad says yes!

[Natsinpwc]

Sunshine Squad says yes!

Then throw in a starting pitcher.

[welch]

Don't need another stating pitcher this off-season...but after 2024, yes, get an ace. Nats need hitting. Missing LF, 3B, 1B. Bellinger would be great. Add Haskins, and it's a strong lineup.

Wood will not be ready next year. He cannot hit AA. I have more hope for Crews to learn AA and AAA, and to be ready next August.

[aspenbubba]

Crews, wood, house, and morales will all be up at some point next year.
By the end of 2024 we’ll be looking at

SS Abrams
CF Crews
LF Thomas
RF wood
DH Meneses
3B house
1B morales
C. Ruiz
2B kieboom?

Honestly think we should package Thomas with a lipscomb or something for Gilbert and plug garret in at LF

Have you seen their numbers in AA where Morales hasn’t even reached?

[aspenbubba]

I’m not sure where to put this and I didn’t want to start a new topic especially if my premonitions are wrong. I’m really concerned that the past two months are an abberation and the present teams performance is who they really are. My basis is the last few weeks performance and wins were not how well we played but rather how poorly the Marlins and Yankees played. The lack of offense is very concerning as Thomas , Abrams , Adams have not been hitting coupled with Dom Smiths useless contributions on offense. Ruiz continues to hit as does Joey.

I don’t think this is the right thread for my premonition that unfortunately is proving true. Please put it back to wins and prediction thread so it can garner comments both negative and positive. Thanks.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don’t think this is the right thread for my premonition that unfortunately is proving true. Please put it back to wins and prediction thread so it can garner comments both negative and positive. Thanks.

done.

[imref]

Looking at starting pitching for 2024:

Locks: Corbin, Gray, Gore, Irvin
5th Spot Battle Royal participants: Williams, Ward, Rutledge, Adon
Waiting in the wings: Herz, Cavalli (once healthy), Parker, Henry (more like late 2024 or 2025 if healthy), Andrew Alvarez, Saenz, Troop, Schoff

It sure would be nice to throw a front-of-the-rotation starter into the mix if Rizzo decides to trade some of the OF surplus in a Gio-like deal.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'll take it further. I expect Ward to start the year in AAA. He had a very light load this year in terms of innings and over the past few years due to TJS. He has options and will be to stretch him back out. Spot starter at best.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

of course, they will have to settle who gets to be called "Jake" among Young, Irvin, and Alu.

Nationals debate to determine the clubhouse's one true Jake

Discusses the debate and trivia contest that settled the matter.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Look at the link for a list of nearly all players in the organization (doesn't include players in the dominican academy and some of the players in the FCL).
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/nationals
The players in tan are on the current 40 man roster. Players in white include those on the 60 day IL as well as those that are active but not on the 40 man. For players not on the 40 man roster, the "options" column indicates when a player must be added to the 40 man roster or exposed to the rule 5 draft as well as players previously exposed to the rule 5 draft.

Working off this list, the following players are on the 60  man IL:
Garrett
Robles
Strasburg
Cavalli
Arano
Edwards (free agent)
Rainey

Of the above, I will guess that Garrett, Cavalli, and Rainey are locks to be added back to the 40 man roster, while there's a decision on Robles. For sake of argument, I'm assuming Stras will retire before December.

Working my way through the various levels, at AAA, the interesting players who would need to be added or exposed include:
Tostado
Alemao Hernandez
Troop
Brzykcy
Cate

I think they might try not to add Bzykcy. That maybe leaves Troop. Rutledge is already on the 40 man.

There are no interesting position players on Harrisburg who are exposed.
Among the pitchers, there are a few:
Henry
Herz
Shuman (injured)
Parker
Lucas Knowles
Evan Lee
Holden Powell (relief)

Among these players, I think herz and Parker get added. They could expose Henry given his injury status, but a team could grab him and keep him on the IL until he well and then stash him in the bullpen. Shuman and Lee I think will be exposed again.

Made is the only potential add among the Blue Rocks position players. Lara is the decision among the pitchers. Theophile will be exposed.

There's a few players whose will be exposed on Fredericksburg, like Roismar Quintana, but they aren't likely to be taken in the major league phase.


So, I will guess that about 5 players will be added -Garrett, Cavalli, Rainey, Herz, and Parker. Tougher calls are Robles, Made, and Henry.

In terms of guys who will be dropped from the 40 man roster to make room, there's a few likelies: Abbott, Harris, Downs, Rutherford, conceivably Cronin due to his injury, then the marginal players like Vargas and Chavis, as well a perhaps some guys who have stepped back this year from before like De La Rosa.

[imref]

Garrett won’t be back imho.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Garrett won’t be back imho.

you mean released or you mean injured?  The latter wouldn't surprise me. He could start the season on the 60 day IL. He's shown too much not to be told to take a hike. I could also see Henry being put on the 40 man roster and then starting the season on the 60 day IL.

A guy I didn't mention is Roddery Munoz. He is on the 40 man, and is young, but he has not shown much in AAA.

[imref]

you mean released or you mean injured?  The latter wouldn't surprise me. He could start the season on the 60 day IL. He's shown too much not to be told to take a hike. I could also see Henry being put on the 40 man roster and then starting the season on the 60 day IL.

A guy I didn't mention is Roddery Munoz. He is on the 40 man, and is young, but he has not shown much in AAA.

I'm concerned that his injury is severe enough we won't see him again.

[aspenbubba]

I'm concerned that his injury is severe enough we won't see him again.

Has anyone seen a prognosis for his injury? In my original statement I hedged my prediction in saying he may not be 100% but would be able to play 1B as well as some we have had in the past.  He may not be ready by OD but his bat plays and I just don't believe his career is over.

[imref]

Has anyone seen a prognosis for his injury? In my original statement I hedged my prediction in saying he may not be 100% but would be able to play 1B as well as some we have had in the past.  He may not be ready by OD but his bat plays and I just don't believe his career is over.

all i've read is speculation. It was a twisting injury and those tend to be more severe. There's nothing official from the team as to the nature of the break, the surgery, or the anticipated recovery.

[welch]

I worried as soon as I saw and read about the injury. I thought of a spiral break to Garrett's leg, or, as imref says, a twisting break. I remembered a kid in the youth soccer league where I coached. He twisted his leg on some crappy Central Park field, and got several cracks that spiraled up his leg.

[IanRubbish]

Instead of paying a couple mil for another team's castoff to OPS under .700, could make sense to put 1B up for prospect tryouts, especially with Trey Lipscomb coming along and turning 24 next year.   If DH and 1B are going to produce mediocre offense, might as well do it with developing, league minimum players.

[Natsinpwc]

Instead of paying a couple mil for another team's castoff to OPS under .700, could make sense to put 1B up for prospect tryouts, especially with Trey Lipscomb coming along and turning 24 next year.   If DH and 1B are going to produce mediocre offense, might as well do it with developing, league minimum players.

Not a bad idea if they are not going to spend to sign decent bats (or pitchers for that matter). However I tend to think the Lerners will focus on the Candelario signing and expect Rizzo to do that again.  I think we are stuck with Dom next year.  A young dude would be more fun.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Instead of paying a couple mil for another team's castoff to OPS under .700, could make sense to put 1B up for prospect tryouts, especially with Trey Lipscomb coming along and turning 24 next year.   If DH and 1B are going to produce mediocre offense, might as well do it with developing, league minimum players.

I'm guessing that's what they do. I think they go into next year with a bunch of guys just holding positions waiting for House, Crews, Lipscomb, Morales, Wood, etc. No big contracts that block anyone. I could see springing for Hoskins on a short contract, maybe like Nelson Cruz got. They may try to start one of their players in the top 100 in the majors (House or Crews) and hope to get RoTY.

[Senatorswin]

Meneses will end the year with RBI's in the 80's. The power he showed last year would be nice if it returns next year, but the RBI's are pretty good on a last place team.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Meneses will end the year with RBI's in the 80's. The power he showed last year would be nice if it returns next year, but the RBI's are pretty good on a last place team.

RBIs and RISP average are not predictive. Last year his average with runners in scoring position was .220.

Meneses needs the power to be a plus. This year's guy doesn't kill you but can be topped

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Aspen really has it in for Dom Smith due to his lack of clutch hitting this year.  I've noted that, except for Joey Meneses's RISP performance being unusually good this year and Dom having weirdly bad luck, their numbers are similar. To that, Aspen observed he can't remember a homer of Smith's that wasn't really low impact, garbage time. I pulled the data below. Aspen's not exaggerating much.

An exchange from last night's GDT:

Smith couldn’t do that

the night after he homered.

As for Thomas, he's a little too aggressive lately. Can take a pitch when it is in a place you can't elevate

Most of Smiths homers have been in garbage time in blow out losses. I can’t recall one that was significant.

For fun, I pulled up the the play log for the games with his 10 homers. Thankfully, it's easier than doing this for Aaron Judge or Matt Olson I'll post the score and situation, as well as the change in win probability (I'll give the % change).  Right away, your recollection is spot on for homer #1 and #10.

#1 - 4/29, 9th inning, 1 out, Pirates lead 16-0. Solo.  Win Prob %=0%
#2 - 6/11, 6th inning, 1 out, Nats lead 4-2. 2 runs, change in win probability=13.1%
#3 - 6/26, 2nd inning, 2 outs, Mariners lead 1-0. Solo. 12%
#4 - 7/1, 2nd inning, 1 out. 0-0 with the Phillies. Solo. 10.6%
#5 - 7/9, 5th inning, no out. 0-0 with the Rangers. Solo. 14.1%
#6 - 8/23, 9th inning, 2 out, 9-0 NYY. Solo. 0%
#7 - 9/2, 5th inning, 1 out, 9-1 Marlins. Solo. 0.8% (from 1.1% to 1.9%).
#8 - 9/11, 6tb inning, 1 out, 4-1 Nats leading pirates. Solo. 6%.
#9 - 9/13, 6th inning, 0 out, 7-3 Pirates. 2 runs. 9.8%.
#10 - 9/18, 9th inning, 2 out, 6-0 White Sox. Solo. 0.1%.

Remarkable collection of no-impact homers. 4 out of 10 with less than 1% impact. Also, as a general matter, his power surge is largely in September, when the Nats are playing out the string rather poorly. In fairness, 4 are also in the stretch from 6/24 - the end of August when the Nats were well above .500.

I still think that, barring a signing of someone like Hoskins, Smith is back for the $4 million or so he'll get for his last year of arbitration. On the other hand, there's something to be said for opening up the 1st base / DH pileup for Ruiz to free some time for Millas or Adams even without a signing. In small numbers this year, Meneses has hit better playing 1st, so going with Millas catching, Ruiz at DH, and Meneses at 1st some of the time might be a better way to arrange the deck chairs.

[aspenbubba]

Just being a little OCD here but your last sentence in the table only gave me credit for homers in games 1 & 10 but he also homered in game 6 in the ninth inning.

Bottom line is of his 10 HR’s 8 were solo shots and three of those were in garbage time.

[welch]

- Brzykcy is "injured - full season", so he's beyond the 60-day IL. He's on the Harrisburg roster. Is there a need to put him on the 40-man before he's recovered?

- Darren Baker is an "interesting player" at Rochester.