CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He's four years away from free agency. He isn't a generational talent like Soto. He's not getting traded for a while unless he busts (pun kind of intended)

If Seaver King or Luke Dickerson moves fast through the minors, or if Ethan Holliday is picked next summer, then CJ becomes movable. That's especially true if he puts together a whole season next year with on-field performance and no off-field distractions. That said, I think it's not on the table until after 2025.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

If Seaver King or Luke Dickerson moves fast through the minors, or if Ethan Holliday is picked next summer, then CJ becomes movable. That's especially true if he puts together a whole season next year with on-field performance and no off-field distractions. That said, I think it's not on the table until after 2025.

I don’t see how Holiday makes him moveable? He’s at least 4-5 years away from the majors.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don’t see how Holiday makes him moveable? He’s at least 4-5 years away from the majors.

or two, if he follows Jackson's path.

[Natsinpwc]

or two, if he follows Jackson's path.

Well he only had 190 at bats.  So really three years to be a full time guy. 

[Slateman]

Or Ethan could be like Druw Jones or Jordan Walker.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Or Ethan could be like Druw Jones or Jordan Walker.

getting back to my original point, I would say there are 3 routes to CJ becoming dealable at the end of 2025 (not now): King, Dickerson, and Holliday.

[zimm_da_kid]

getting back to my original point, I would say there are 3 routes to CJ becoming dealable at the end of 2025 (not now): King, Dickerson, and Holliday.

King likely starts in high A so there’s a world where he rakes and is up next year. Even if they don’t view him as a shortstop long term (they say they do though), get him up and can always slide him over later.

My thought with trading Abrams is really that our OF prospects are up but we’re starting to form a next wave of infielders. House and morales at the corners, king, Dickerson, feliz (raked in dsl, might move to 3rd), and potentially Holliday. How do we maximize our the value of the players we have? We’re still not good enough to trade prospects for game changing talent in my book. So trade the older more established player for pieces and let the young guys cook

[Natsinpwc]

King likely starts in high A so there’s a world where he rakes and is up next year.

OMG

[zimm_da_kid]

OMG

What?

[Slateman]

King likely starts in high A so there’s a world where he rakes and is up next year. Even if they don’t view him as a shortstop long term (they say they do though), get him up and can always slide him over later.

My thought with trading Abrams is really that our OF prospects are up but we’re starting to form a next wave of infielders. House and morales at the corners, king, Dickerson, feliz (raked in dsl, might move to 3rd), and potentially Holliday. How do we maximize our the value of the players we have? We’re still not good enough to trade prospects for game changing talent in my book. So trade the older more established player for pieces and let the young guys cook

There is a world where I wake up next to Gabbie Carter. Also, they said Luis Garcia could play SS.

Even if that were the case, again, why are we trading CJ? Am I missing some glut of .800+ OPS hitters we have?

CJ is part of the "young guys." He just turned 24. King will turn 22 in April and he posted a .751 OPS in Low A. House and Morales can't stay healthy and neither lit the world on fire in Double A. Dickerson and Feliz are years away. Holliday is moving to 3B, if not a corner OF spot.

Again, why are we moving on from CJ with four years of control left?  Even if you don't want him at SS, you have the worst hitting CFer in baseball starting, a LFer who probably should move to 1B or DH, a RFer who probably will win a gold glove in CF, and absolutely no one worth talking about at the DH position.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

OMG

he's only had 90 PAs and 176 innings in Fredericksburg. He looked good (wRC+ of 122), and he's a college kid so should move fast, but I think anything more than a Crews-like cup of coffee at the end of the year is crazy. He's not even a top 100 prospect (unlike Braden Montgomery, who we passed on). That said, he's pretty polished. I would not be surprised if he got a bump up to AA at the end of May if he absolutely rakes. There's nothing above him other than Nunez in AAA. At AA, figure Made, and at AAA, Dunn and Cluff. I think they push him aggressively.

[Natsinpwc]

What?

He will be lucky to make Double A.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Even if that were the case, again, why are we trading CJ? Am I missing some glut of .800+ OPS hitters we have?

CJ is part of the "young guys." He just turned 24. King will turn 22 in April and he posted a .751 OPS in Low A. House and Morales can't stay healthy and neither lit the world on fire in Double A. Dickerson and Feliz are years away. Holliday is moving to 3B, if not a corner OF spot.

Again, why are we moving on from CJ with four years of control left?  Even if you don't want him at SS, you have the worst hitting CFer in baseball starting, a LFer who probably should move to 1B or DH, a RFer who probably will win a gold glove in CF, and absolutely no one worth talking about at the DH position.

I think it'd be a panic sell at this point. There's scenarios where it might be a decent move if his overall numbers in 2025 are not lousy but not great. I don't expect him to bomb out. Right now, he's a young, middling shortstop. Past 2 season / 1216 PAs, he's been .729 OPS with some speed and mostly bad defense. If that's what he truly is, he can be displaced while also having trade value. If he's better than that, then we aren't in a hurry to move on unless we've got a revelation behind him.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He will be lucky to make Double A.

he's certainly not blocked by anyone.

[Natsinpwc]

he's certainly not blocked by anyone.

It’s a good thing we have a weak system!

[Slateman]

I'll caveat all of my post with: If someone wants to give you a stupid offer, then do it. Like if the Tigers are offering Jackson Job, Kevin McGonigle, and Thayron Liranzo, sure, go for it. If the Orioles want to give you Jackson Holliday and Chayce McDermott, pull that trigger.

But no one is going to do that with the gambling thing and Abrams' garbage second half. So just keep him and see if he can rebound.



But I would do Holliday for Abrams straight up. I love a good story line

[imref]

Positive initial signs. What are the odds it continues?

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/abrams-reports-early-ready-to-move-past-september-demotion

[Slateman]

That should be an expectation.

Can he improve fielding at shortstop, or are we moving him to CF?

[Smithian]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/02/28/cj-abrams-nationals-future/

Good article from WaPo. Nothing totally unexpected in there, everyone saying the right things. The tidbit about the late bus was an interesting one I had not seen.

I am low on Abrams just because I want to keep my expectations in check. Abrams turning into a legit professional and being more consistent offensively and being even below average defensively would solve a lot of the problems for the Nationals. But if anything was going to shake a young, super talented player to get his act and life together, it would be a humiliating moment that got national attention. He just turned 24 a little after the demotion last year. Lots of growth happens for all of us in our mid twenties.

I feel like we'll know pretty early this season if Abrams is a monster bounce back candidate or washed.

[imref]

After watching the Pete Rose documentary I'm worried about Abrams having a gambling problem and not admitting it. We'll see.

[Slateman]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cj-abrams-has-a-decision-to-make/

Obviously, Abrams is a wildly aggressive swinger. The numbers don’t lie. But he’s not a bad-ball hitter the way that some swing-happy sluggers are. Here’s one way of thinking about it. Consider all of Abrams’s contact that didn’t come on pitches over the direct heart of the plate. He put 247 such balls into play last year; 280 major leaguers put at least 100 of them into play. Out of that group, Abrams was 227th in wOBA on those batted balls, in the 19th percentile league-wide.

If I were in the 19th percentile league-wide at something, I’d try to do that thing as rarely as possible. But of course, Abrams swings at a ton of those balls. He’s 25th out of 238 major leaguers who saw at least 1,000 such pitches in swing rate, the 90th percentile. In other words, he’s swinging at everything but making very little impact, that outrageous home run notwithstanding.

The worst part? Abrams has plus power – just not in the outer reaches of the zone. When it comes to wOBA on pitches that he puts in play over the heart of the plate, he’s in the 90th percentile league-wide. In other words, he’s incredibly powerful, but only in his nitro zone. That makes sense to me intuitively. I don’t see a massive power hitter when I look at Abrams; he’s not built like Joey Gallo or Pete Alonso. He’s powerful because he generates a ton of swing speed, but the source of that is more quickness than brute force. To make that work, he needs the ball to be placed centrally.

But if we’re talking about Abrams as a franchise cornerstone, we have to think bigger on the offensive end. His current mix of skills and approach feels capped. When you give away so much value by swinging at bad pitches and not doing enough when you put them in play, the math just doesn’t work. So if you’re counting on an Abrams breakout, pay attention to the fringes. If he’s either laying off those pitches or hitting them for extra bases, something interesting might be going on.

Not exactly a great endorsement

[varoadking]

Should have traded him in the off-season...

[Smithian]

Should have traded him in the off-season...

Value was zero. Worth the upside of seeing if he gets going this season.

[nobleisthyname]

This is Abrams prove it season in my opinion. I don't think I would bet ( ) on him being meaningfully better than last season unfortunately.

[imref]

.842 OPS so far (8th among all shortstops) with a HR and 2 SBs, and some highlight plays at SS. 0 errors, 1.000 FP