Author Topic: The Weather - 2021  (Read 2032 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
The Weather - 2021
« Topic Start: January 23, 2021, 07:08:38 PM »
Might be a decent snowstorm early next week.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #1: January 26, 2021, 11:41:17 AM »
The Thursday storm fizzled, but the Euro model, typically the most reliable, is showing a big D.C. area snowstorm for Sunday.  The other models are also showing snow on Sunday, but the Euro totals are in the 20"-30" range for most of the area.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 33201
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #2: January 26, 2021, 01:43:35 PM »
The Thursday storm fizzled, but the Euro model, typically the most reliable, is showing a big D.C. area snowstorm for Sunday.  The other models are also showing snow on Sunday, but the Euro totals are in the 20"-30" range for most of the area.
didn'y they start high for today and thursday, too?

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #3: January 26, 2021, 01:47:09 PM »
didn'y they start high for today and thursday, too?

GFS had a big storm for Thursday, but none of the other models picked it up, and GFS is notoriously unreliable more than about 72 hours out.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

  • Posts: 17179
  • babble on
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #4: January 26, 2021, 03:44:31 PM »
One thing that the Euro and GFS models have in common when it comes to predicting accumulating snow at DCA is that they are invariably wrong  :P

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #5: January 27, 2021, 10:09:45 AM »
via wxrisk, latest runs of the Euro model still show a strong snowstorm for the mid-atlantic on Sunday, the UK model is now in alignment though with slightly lower snow amounts.  here's his latest update from around 3 AM this morning

Quote
THE  SUNDAY MONDAY  EVENT FOR  WVA MD DEL  VA  western NC  IS LOOKING   SERIOUS.   HERE IS THE LATEST
The  2  previous run of the Ecmwf / European model (  EURO) r  on Tuesday were showing a  massive snowstorm   for MUCH of   VA MD DEL WAV  and   nw  NC.  This *** POSSIBILITY **  is supported by the  British model (UKMET) .   
1  This  event is NOT 7 days or 9  days  away. It begins  SUNDAY which means the forecast have to be issues by Saturday so from a Meteorologist perspective  its  3 days away. 
2  The 0z  WED operational  EURO  again shows a MAJOR  snowstorm for those areas.  This Model keeps the  1st Low well to the south. Instead  of  going into KY  OH  western PA   the Low  reaches southern KY then   dies and a NEW  LOW  forms  in  eastern  NC .    This means colder  temps  more snow
3   The  event begins Sunday Morning   in eastern KY  / sw  VA  and spreads W to E .  This run of the   EURO  shows a  LONG  duration event  lasting 24  to 34 hrs  depending on locations.    In addition  this run of the European Model shows  strong  WINDS-- Gusts 30 to 50mph from north NC most of  VA MD DEL NJ  PHL  to NYC !!     
 wow.
4   The operational GFS model is still not showing anything like this. But  given the atrocious performance of the GFS model in  the last three events that maybe a good thing if you like snow and wind.    The  GFS Model  does  show  snow in VA  WAV MD DEL on Sunday afternoon /  evening into Monday morning. But because the LOW  goes from KY to PA  it changes over to sleet and then rain and plain rain. The result is a few inches in Central Virginia...a bit more in the Shenandoah Valley and northern Virginia and a bit more in MD  &     eastern  PA. It is  a decent snow and Ice event on the GFS    but it  not showing the monster storm that the European is showing.
 5   We are getting into the Wheelhouse of the European model. That is to say the time frame from 84 hours to 180 hours is where the European model excels and the fact that the European is continuously showing this kind of significant winter storm for VA  MD DEL WVA   and nw  NC  is  significant.


Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #6: January 27, 2021, 06:13:53 PM »
https://www.weatherboy.com/odds-improve-for-east-coast-winter-storm

still too early to predict snow totals, but we're likely to get something.  Wunderground showing about 6-8" for much of the DC area with snow from early Sunday morning into Tuesday. IIRC, their forecasts are based on the GFS which until this afternoon, showed less of a storm than the other models.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 33201
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #7: January 27, 2021, 06:25:51 PM »
What Topper had just now has the GFS at near 5 inches in DC and the Euro at 8.6".  Big difference is mostly further west, where the Euro runs up amounts. 

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #8: January 27, 2021, 07:11:07 PM »
What Topper had just now has the GFS at near 5 inches in DC and the Euro at 8.6".  Big difference is mostly further west, where the Euro runs up amounts. 

I'm good with less than 2 feet. :)

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #9: January 27, 2021, 07:29:25 PM »
Capital Weather Gang:

Chance of at least one inch: 50 percent
Chance of at least three inches: 35 percent
Chance of at least six inches: 20 percent

They expect to have a better idea by Friday or Saturday.

Offline Mathguy

  • Posts: 9162
  • Floyd - Truely Man's best Friend
    • Outer Banks Beach House
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #10: January 27, 2021, 08:39:07 PM »
We could get 1-2" on snow here tonight in northeast NC.  Winds may be around 45 mph Thursday morning

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #11: January 28, 2021, 03:41:40 PM »
Latest CWG:

Quote
Computer model projections are in agreement that at least some accumulating snow will fall but differ as to how much.

At the low end, about 1 to 3 inches or so would fall on Sunday before precipitation changes to a light mix or even plain rain late Sunday into Monday.

At the high end, at least 6 to 12 inches would accumulate, beginning Sunday and lasting into Monday night or Tuesday, perhaps mixed with sleet at times.

heavier amounts to the north of DC

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022

Offline dracnal

  • Posts: 1626
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #13: January 29, 2021, 11:11:08 AM »
8-12” for most of the DC area

https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/first-thoughts-on-major-noreaster-jan-31-feb-feb-2-c7bc32741d66

We need more women meteorologists. By now, I think most people realize when a man says 'more than eight inches,' the reality is closer to five.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 20940
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #14: January 29, 2021, 11:24:58 AM »
We need more women meteorologists. By now, I think most people realize when a man says 'more than eight inches,' the reality is closer to five.
:D

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #15: January 29, 2021, 12:04:57 PM »
We need more women meteorologists. By now, I think most people realize when a man says 'more than eight inches,' the reality is closer to five.

:spit:

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #16: January 29, 2021, 01:37:53 PM »
CWG now saying 4-8” likely with 2” to more than a foot possible.

Offline Five Banners

  • Posts: 1419
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #17: January 29, 2021, 01:52:50 PM »
CWG now saying 4-8” likely with 2” to more than a foot possible.

 Good year for measurable snow as far as schools and telework likely to ease the burden on roads and sidewalks.  Still amazing to hear some people scrambling to get to the store, as if last spring wasn’t a clue enough to have storm stock on hand

Offline dracnal

  • Posts: 1626
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #18: January 29, 2021, 02:38:48 PM »
Good year for measurable snow as far as schools and telework likely to ease the burden on roads and sidewalks.  Still amazing to hear some people scrambling to get to the store, as if last spring wasn’t a clue enough to have storm stock on hand

'Hey, we're down to 24 rolls of toilet paper, should we get more?' 'Nah, we've got 24 rolls. We don't need to get more yet.'

'Uh, snow storm is coming and we have 3 rolls left.' 'Holy crap! GO GO GO!'

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20850
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #19: January 29, 2021, 02:39:29 PM »
Good year for measurable snow as far as schools and telework likely to ease the burden on roads and sidewalks.  Still amazing to hear some people scrambling to get to the store, as if last spring wasn’t a clue enough to have storm stock on hand

FCPS will find a reason to cancel school, they are become masters of it this year

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #20: January 29, 2021, 02:45:54 PM »
FCPS will find a reason to cancel school, they are become masters of it this year

Does FCPS have anyone attending in person right now?  Prince William announced even before K-1 returned that they would still have snow days as they have staff and special needs programs that have to be in facilities.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 36082
  • Re-contending in 2022
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #21: January 29, 2021, 03:22:55 PM »
CWG first call map:


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 33201
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #22: January 29, 2021, 03:29:15 PM »
Good year for measurable snow as far as schools and telework likely to ease the burden on roads and sidewalks.  Still amazing to hear some people scrambling to get to the store, as if last spring wasn’t a clue enough to have storm stock on hand
actaully, my last trader Joes run was 2.5 weeks ago, so I'm due for another market trip.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

  • Posts: 17179
  • babble on
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #23: January 29, 2021, 04:08:51 PM »
Does Trader Joes still have those little frozen pizzas from Naples (the real one, not the FL snowbird golf resort)?  The pear and gorgonzola one was really tasty. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 33201
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #24: January 29, 2021, 04:24:58 PM »
Does Trader Joes still have those little frozen pizzas from Naples (the real one, not the FL snowbird golf resort)?  The pear and gorgonzola one was really tasty. 
they carry pizzas but I haven't picked one up in years.  I may have bought a few 5+ years ago for my Dad.