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The Thursday storm fizzled, but the Euro model, typically the most reliable, is showing a big D.C. area snowstorm for Sunday. The other models are also showing snow on Sunday, but the Euro totals are in the 20"-30" range for most of the area.
didn'y they start high for today and thursday, too?
THE SUNDAY MONDAY EVENT FOR WVA MD DEL VA western NC IS LOOKING SERIOUS. HERE IS THE LATESTThe 2 previous run of the Ecmwf / European model ( EURO) r on Tuesday were showing a massive snowstorm for MUCH of VA MD DEL WAV and nw NC. This *** POSSIBILITY ** is supported by the British model (UKMET) . 1 This event is NOT 7 days or 9 days away. It begins SUNDAY which means the forecast have to be issues by Saturday so from a Meteorologist perspective its 3 days away. 2 The 0z WED operational EURO again shows a MAJOR snowstorm for those areas. This Model keeps the 1st Low well to the south. Instead of going into KY OH western PA the Low reaches southern KY then dies and a NEW LOW forms in eastern NC . This means colder temps more snow3 The event begins Sunday Morning in eastern KY / sw VA and spreads W to E . This run of the EURO shows a LONG duration event lasting 24 to 34 hrs depending on locations. In addition this run of the European Model shows strong WINDS-- Gusts 30 to 50mph from north NC most of VA MD DEL NJ PHL to NYC !! wow. 4 The operational GFS model is still not showing anything like this. But given the atrocious performance of the GFS model in the last three events that maybe a good thing if you like snow and wind. The GFS Model does show snow in VA WAV MD DEL on Sunday afternoon / evening into Monday morning. But because the LOW goes from KY to PA it changes over to sleet and then rain and plain rain. The result is a few inches in Central Virginia...a bit more in the Shenandoah Valley and northern Virginia and a bit more in MD & eastern PA. It is a decent snow and Ice event on the GFS but it not showing the monster storm that the European is showing. 5 We are getting into the Wheelhouse of the European model. That is to say the time frame from 84 hours to 180 hours is where the European model excels and the fact that the European is continuously showing this kind of significant winter storm for VA MD DEL WVA and nw NC is significant.
What Topper had just now has the GFS at near 5 inches in DC and the Euro at 8.6". Big difference is mostly further west, where the Euro runs up amounts.
Computer model projections are in agreement that at least some accumulating snow will fall but differ as to how much.At the low end, about 1 to 3 inches or so would fall on Sunday before precipitation changes to a light mix or even plain rain late Sunday into Monday. At the high end, at least 6 to 12 inches would accumulate, beginning Sunday and lasting into Monday night or Tuesday, perhaps mixed with sleet at times.
8-12” for most of the DC areahttps://dtwxrisk.medium.com/first-thoughts-on-major-noreaster-jan-31-feb-feb-2-c7bc32741d66
We need more women meteorologists. By now, I think most people realize when a man says 'more than eight inches,' the reality is closer to five.
CWG now saying 4-8” likely with 2” to more than a foot possible.
Good year for measurable snow as far as schools and telework likely to ease the burden on roads and sidewalks. Still amazing to hear some people scrambling to get to the store, as if last spring wasn’t a clue enough to have storm stock on hand
FCPS will find a reason to cancel school, they are become masters of it this year
Does Trader Joes still have those little frozen pizzas from Naples (the real one, not the FL snowbird golf resort)? The pear and gorgonzola one was really tasty.