Author Topic: The Weather - 2021  (Read 2043 times)

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Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #25: January 30, 2021, 12:13:25 PM »
And here we go, winter storm warning for most of the DC area for tomorrow.  The current model runs show around 4-12" inches, plus a mix of ice, for most of the region with higher totals north of DC. Harrisburg to Lehigh appear to be ground zero and could get 12-20" of snow. The weather guys are all for the most part saying that they aren't confident in exact totals, but we'll get something significant out of the storm.

And once the storm clears out, Tuesday's forecast is calling for 30 MPH winds.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #26: January 30, 2021, 12:41:50 PM »
And here we go, winter storm warning for most of the DC area for tomorrow.  The current model runs show around 4-12" inches, plus a mix of ice, for most of the region with higher totals north of DC. Harrisburg to Lehigh appear to be ground zero and could get 12-20" of snow. The weather guys are all for the most part saying that they aren't confident in exact totals, but we'll get something significant out of the storm.

And once the storm clears out, Tuesday's forecast is calling for 30 MPH winds.
Are they ever confident in the totals?  Seems like the normal on the borderline of a snow event for the DC area.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #27: January 30, 2021, 12:54:43 PM »
4-12 gives them a ton of room to say they were correct when it’s over

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #28: January 30, 2021, 12:59:18 PM »
I'll cut the DC guys just a little slack.  With the key here the timing and location of the shift of the low from the initial one coming across the country to the secondary off the coast, this one is a really tough call.  If the air was colder, then it wouldn't make a difference.  Sounds like the Sunday snow is from the initial low and the later stuff is the secondary, which will form a bit late to clobber us.  That said, this is really just news because there's been so little east coast snow the past couple of years, especially in the mid-atlantic. 

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #29: January 30, 2021, 01:51:20 PM »
I'll cut the DC guys just a little slack.  With the key here the timing and location of the shift of the low from the initial one coming across the country to the secondary off the coast, this one is a really tough call.  If the air was colder, then it wouldn't make a difference.  Sounds like the Sunday snow is from the initial low and the later stuff is the secondary, which will form a bit late to clobber us.  That said, this is really just news because there's been so little east coast snow the past couple of years, especially in the mid-atlantic. 

DC is somewhere around 750 days since the last snow of greater than one-half inch (as measured at DCA).

here's the latest NWS projection:


Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #30: January 30, 2021, 01:54:05 PM »
It looks like 6+ is getting pushed further west than other models I’ve seen

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #31: January 30, 2021, 02:19:22 PM »
It looks like 6+ is getting pushed further west than other models I’ve seen

I read the latest CWG update, it's pretty clear they really don't yet know what's going to happen on Monday.  The first storm seems pretty set, but there are a lot of variables in how the second one sets up.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #32: January 30, 2021, 11:14:38 PM »
DT at wxrisk's nightly rant on FB.  Like everyone else, he's saying Monday is just a guess at this point, but he notes:

Quote
The good news is that the short-range models are beginning to show the heavy snow in Pennsylvania and New Jersey on Monday and Monday evening  and moderate snow rotating back into DC Northern Virginia and perhaps as far south as Fredericksburg and Richmond and the northern portions of the Shenandoah Valley Monday afternoon and evening. I don't know if this wrap around snow will be 1 inch  or 3 or just snow showers.

  I continue to be very concerned about heavy snow greater than a foot in the Washington DC and Baltimore Metro areas.  The high   resolution n short-range and very good Canadian model known as the RGEM  as well as other models continue to show 12  to  to as  much as 30 inches of snow in South Central   AND Southeastern Pennsylvania  as well as much of New Jersey  AND   into North Central Maryland very close to Washington and Baltimore.   It is  quite possible that Hagerstown  and  Frederick as well as Columbia Sykesville and housing could end up with 8 inches or more of snow when compared to Baltimore or Washington DC.   

With that much snow … being  that close to these important Metro areas I am very nervous about any forecasts which has snow amounts under 10 in.   It would not take much of an adjustment to drop 18 or 24 inches of snow  area into these Metro regions as well as Martinsburg Leesburg and Winchester.
 

Offline Slateman

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #33: January 30, 2021, 11:41:57 PM »
FCPS will find a reason to cancel school, they are become masters of it this year
Yep

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #34: January 31, 2021, 10:27:34 AM »
NWS now saying 6-8" with ice for most of the DC region.


Online Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #35: January 31, 2021, 12:17:31 PM »
NWS now saying 6-8" with ice for most of the DC region.

(Image removed from quote.)
Snowmageddon!!

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #36: January 31, 2021, 12:24:21 PM »
Looks like a dud in Alexandria

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #37: January 31, 2021, 12:29:10 PM »
Looks like a dud in Alexandria
It's sticking.  Light but steady.  if it doubles what's fallen so far, gonna guess 2-3 inches at the airport by 5 PM and a changeover.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #38: January 31, 2021, 01:03:33 PM »
It's sticking.  Light but steady.  if it doubles what's fallen so far, gonna guess 2-3 inches at the airport by 5 PM and a changeover.

Nothing is sticking to the roads or sidewalks here, a couple of inches on clear lawns, but the sledding hills are already bare

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #39: January 31, 2021, 01:10:41 PM »
I guess it's changed to rain or sleet in CC after about an inch. Shovelable to clear the sidewalks before it freezes.

Offline Slateman

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #40: January 31, 2021, 01:59:49 PM »
Looks like a dud in Alexandria
Friends are telling me 2-3 inches out by IAD

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #41: January 31, 2021, 02:56:08 PM »
A few inches of snow in south Arlington. Enough to build a snowman and make snow angels, but enough that I went out in sneakers and didn't have to take my snow boots out of storage.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #42: January 31, 2021, 03:07:18 PM »
we got about 3" in western Prince William County, Weather Channels says we'll get another 4" tomorrow.  It looks like Philly to NYC will get the brunt of it - 18-24".

I just checked the wxrisk guy's FB page and he says the forecast was a bust, the low is setting up too far north to bring any additional snow into the DC / Virginia area, so this could be it except for some additional brief light snow later this afternoon.


Offline DCFan

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #43: January 31, 2021, 03:32:31 PM »
And my daughter's appointment for the 2nd jab is tomorrow afternoon. 

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #44: January 31, 2021, 06:17:55 PM »
What could be cuter than pandas in the snow: https://twitter.com/nationalzoo/status/1355986484931780609?s=21

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #45: February 01, 2021, 12:28:23 PM »
My front steps are like a skating rink - that last little burst of freezing rain left a pretty think glaze on everything.  It's right at freezing at DCA so probably a bit colder pretty much everywhere else...so that stuff ain't going anywhere soon. 

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #46: February 01, 2021, 12:59:41 PM »
My front steps are like a skating rink - that last little burst of freezing rain left a pretty think glaze on everything.  It's right at freezing at DCA so probably a bit colder pretty much everywhere else...so that stuff ain't going anywhere soon. 

first part of next week is supposed to have highs in the 20s.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #47: February 01, 2021, 03:06:39 PM »
Snowing in western Prince William county now, NWS says another 1-2"

Offline HondoKillebrew

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #48: February 05, 2021, 04:12:11 PM »
Looks like snow from just after midnight on Saturday into Sunday.  1" - 3" expected. 

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather - 2021
« Reply #49: February 05, 2021, 04:38:21 PM »
Looks like snow from just after midnight on Saturday into Sunday.  1" - 3" expected. 

did you say snow???