Juan Soto - The Truth making it in DC this year

[bluestreak]

The guys who rank prospects overvalue 5 tool guys. They drool over these guys. Unfortunately many of these guys can never hit enough to reach star status. In contrast they undervalue guys who are just good hitters but lack speed, and arm and defensive range. Rhys Hoskins is another example of this.

If there is a ying and yang to this Robles will probably never match his status in the prospect rankings. I would still keep him though. Even if he is just a slightly better than average MLB player he will be under team control for a while.

But the thing is, even if Robles doesn’t hit as well as Soto, he can still be potentially as valuable if he plays elite CF defense and has blazing speed. Those two things are worth a lot of potential wins. A CF that can hit for average and steal bases is incredibly valuable. Why do you think Billy Hamilton continues to start in the major leagues...

[bluestreak]

Someone mentioned this before, but Soto actually does remind me of a left handed Miguel Cabrera. High expectations, and maybe I’m playing the Rookie Monster game, but I can’t help but see similarities.

[Slateman]

But the thing is, even if Robles doesn’t hit as well as Soto, he can still be potentially as valuable if he plays elite CF defense and has blazing speed. Those two things are worth a lot of potential wins. A CF that can hit for average and steal bases is incredibly valuable. Why do you think Billy Hamilton continues to start in the major leagues...

No. Under no circumstance can a non-hitting version of Robles be as valuable as a dude OPSing over .900.

Billy Hamilton has shown that playing elite defense and having blazing speed isnt nearly as valuable hitting over .300, with a OBP over .400, and 20+ home run power.

Jesus people, Billy Hamilton is awful and there is no circumstance in which I'd use him to replace Taylor.

[imref]

Jesus people, Billy Hamilton is awful and there is no circumstance in which I'd use him to replace Taylor.

Not even an ACL injury to Taylor mid-game with Hamilton on the bench?

[bluestreak]

No. Under no circumstance can a non-hitting version of Robles be as valuable as a dude OPSing over .900.

Billy Hamilton has shown that playing elite defense and having blazing speed isnt nearly as valuable hitting over .300, with a OBP over .400, and 20+ home run power.

Jesus people, Billy Hamilton is awful and there is no circumstance in which I'd use him to replace Taylor.

I don’t mean non hitting. I meant what I said, not hitting as well as Soto which is pretty much everyone not named Betts or Trout. I think hitting around .300 with doubles power still makes Robles incredibly valuable, which is where I think Robles projects.

My mention of Hamilton was meant to illustrate that speed and defense are valuable enough on their own to get you a starting job somewhere, not saying that Robles is Billy Hamilton equivalent.

[Natsinpwc]

But the thing is, even if Robles doesn’t hit as well as Soto, he can still be potentially as valuable if he plays elite CF defense and has blazing speed. Those two things are worth a lot of potential wins. A CF that can hit for average and steal bases is incredibly valuable. Why do you think Billy Hamilton continues to start in the major leagues...

And the Reds are terrible. And talk shows are always focused on his lack of hitting. He will be gone after this year. I can't prove it but offense seems more important than speed and defense.

[Elvir Ovcina]

And the Reds are terrible. And talk shows are always focused on his lack of hitting. He will be gone after this year. I can't prove it but offense seems more important than speed and defense.

It's pretty easy to prove: AAA is full of guys who can play MLB-caliber defense but can't hit MLB pitching.  The reverse is rarely true.  It's simply a lot harder to find guys who can hit than field. 

[bluestreak]

Guys, I didn’t say Billy Hamilton is As valuable as Soto. I said that although Robles isn’t our shiny object anymore, his glove and his speed can make up for the fact that he doesn’t hit as well as Soto. Robles has never hit anywhere near as badly as Hamilton, at any level. He is a high average hitter with good discipline. A guy that has an OPS of 750-800 or so who has elite speed and defense can be every bit as valuable as Soto. Imagine MAT hitting .290.  Don’t tell me that player isn’t incredibly valuable. And that is what Robles is projecting out to be. He might not get there, but from what I saw in his cup of coffee last year, he certainly has that potential.

[Natsinpwc]

It's pretty easy to prove: AAA is full of guys who can play MLB-caliber defense but can't hit MLB pitching.  The reverse is rarely true.  It's simply a lot harder to find guys who can hit than field.

I was a great defensive CF is softball in my twenties--mostly cause I could run.  I didnn't hit that great. My brother was the manager so I stayed in the "big leagues".   

[Natsinpwc]

Guys, I didn’t say Billy Hamilton is As valuable as Soto. I said that although Robles isn’t our shiny object anymore, his glove and his speed can make up for the fact that he doesn’t hit as well as Soto. Robles has never hit anywhere near as badly as Hamilton, at any level. He is a high average hitter with good discipline. A guy that has an OPS of 750-800 or so who has elite speed and defense can be every bit as valuable as Soto. Imagine MAT hitting .290.  Don’t tell me that player isn’t incredibly valuable. And that is what Robles is projecting out to be. He might not get there, but from what I saw in his cup of coffee last year, he certainly has that potential.

I understand--and you should be right about Robles.  He should be a much better hitter than Hamilton.  Of course speed alone will not make hm a great CF.  But he should be a good big leaguer for a while.

It also depends of course on the rest of the lineup.  The Reds have an awesome lineup this year so they can carry a CF who hits 9th frequently.  If they also had a weak hitting C as the Nats do this year it would be harder.

Just saying the scouts seem to undervalue hitting which as Elvir said is the hardest thing to do.  Somehow they find a place for guys who can hit.  I believe that was part of the Billy Beane equation also when he first took over in Oakland. 

[mitlen]

I was a great defensive CF is softball in my twenties--mostly cause I could run. 

Link?

[Natsinpwc]

Link?

fantasyworldofsportsdelusions.com

[mitlen]

fantasyworldofsportsdelusions.com

[Slateman]

I don’t mean non hitting. I meant what I said, not hitting as well as Soto which is pretty much everyone not named Betts or Trout. I think hitting around .300 with doubles power still makes Robles incredibly valuable, which is where I think Robles projects.

My mention of Hamilton was meant to illustrate that speed and defense are valuable enough on their own to get you a starting job somewhere, not saying that Robles is Billy Hamilton equivalent.

So you went from Billy Hamilton to borderline HoF hitter?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Someone mentioned this before, but Soto actually does remind me of a left handed Miguel Cabrera. High expectations, and maybe I’m playing the Rookie Monster game, but I can’t help but see similarities.

Votto playing the OF.

[MorseTheHorse]

I don’t know if this is a joke, but if the guy continues at this pace will get MVP votes. Not a lot but a couple.

not a joke, and I agree

[bluestreak]

So you went from Billy Hamilton to borderline HoF hitter?

I didn’t if you read my posts, but even if I did, I learned the flip flopping from the master...

[Smithian]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/juan-soto-looks-like-the-best-teenage-hitter-in-history/

[rbw5t]

He was on base 5 out of 5 times in game 1 today.  2 for 2, with 3 walks.  OPS getting close to 1.000 again.

[vernon337]

I don't understand why the Juan Soto story isn't making a bigger splash nationally.  He is having one of the greatest seasons by a teenager in baseball history.  Fangraphs shows only six teens with a higher WAR  in a season than him, and he will pass three of them in the next few weeks (all three are Hall of Famers).  By offensive production, he trails only Ott and Conigliaro.  I have to believe that those two were getting a lot more adulation than Soto is.  Maybe as his home run totals grow and if the Nationals can get back in a pennant race, he will get recognition for the sensational debut he is having. But for now, he's getting the kind of coverage any 24-year-old rookie having a good season would get.

the list of 20-year-olds with terrific seasons is a lot more impressive than 19-year-olds.  At this point, I think that's who we should be comparing Soto to for the long run.  There are eight players who had more than 400 ABs as 20-year-olds and had an OPS above .900.  Six are in the Hall of Fame -- Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle and Jimmie Foxx.  The other two are Alex Rodriguez and Mike Trout. 

[MorseTheHorse]

the list of 20-year-olds with terrific seasons is a lot more impressive than 19-year-olds.  At this point, I think that's who we should be comparing Soto to for the long run.  There are eight players who had more than 400 ABs as 20-year-olds and had an OPS above .900.  Six are in the Hall of Fame -- Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle and Jimmie Foxx.  The other two are Alex Rodriguez and Mike Trout. 

WOW!

[Slateman]

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1581355

[spidernat]

[varoadking]

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1581355

Soto's age had never been questioned before Simpson's comment...

Proof that Bryan Mcwilliam doesn't read WNFF...

[Slateman]

Soto's age had never been questioned before Simpson's comment...

Proof that Bryan Mcwilliam doesn't read WNFF...

I mean, who does