Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[spidernat]

You said 24/25

Let's compare age 24 seasons. Harper was hitting .319/.413/.595

Enough with the bullcrap people. Yes, he's slumping, and it's bad. Harper's lowest lows are awful and he probably gets stuck in them for a lot longer than most players due to a complicated swing and mental fortitude. But he's shown that he's one of the greatest ever to play this game, talent wise. You're a moron if you think that Adam Dunn and Bryce Harper are comparable in any way.

coming from you

[hotshot]

... and probably very few walks.

Taking fewer walks was/is fine with me.  Your "star" can't be Eddie Yost. Rather have him be bad-ball swinging, clutch-hitting Yogi Berra.

Bryce, to me, has always (maddenly) taken far too many hittable pitches. Took several right down the middle first pitches last evening; always does. Like he is up there hoping for the free pass.

[tomterp]

If somebody is a "clutch" hitter, I would wonder why they slack off so badly at other "non" clutch times.

Though as noted above, statistical evidence for "clutch" is somewhere between scant to non-existent.

For you clutch lovers out there, here are a couple of articles in which "clutch" is examined:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38398/prospectus-feature-revised-look-clutch-hitting-part-1/

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38519/prospectus-feature-revised-look-clutch-hitting-part-2/

.....However we found no evidence that clutch hitting is a replicable skill. For that to be the case, we would see players repeat at the top (or bottom) of the charts, year after year.

As we have illustrated, clutch performance for players often swings wildly from one season to the next. This, we feel, is a greater indictment of the concept of clutch hitting than is the apparent clutch-ness of Bert Campaneris, Vince Coleman, and Tony Womack, and the apparent unclutch-ness of Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas, and Barry Bonds. A viable statistical metric must be replicable, with results generally consistent over time. Our measure of clutch hitting—the excess performance of a hitter in high win-expectancy plate appearances compared to others—fails to meet this test. We therefore echo Cramer’s conclusion from 41 years ago that while clutch hitting may exist as a feature, it does not exist as a repeatable skill.

[Smithian]

If we weren't talking a multi-hundred million dollar contract with that 2015 season in the rearview mirror, I would be happy saying Harper's average should level up in the long term giving us a big time power bat in the cleanup spot.

But I can't rectify his play last few seasons with 2015. And the guy is a freak athlete. I get not having him steal bases, but what is reason for him to have a negative defensive WAR every single season after his rookie season?

I don't doubt for one single second that he is working hard and cares. Which makes it all the more confusing.

[NatsAllThe Way]

That 2005 season was amazing.

But Harper right now looks like Adam Dunn with better defense. High OBP with many Ks, lots of power, not much else. Adam Dunn was a valuable hitter who was moved to first about 5 years too late, but Adam Dunn would be a disappointing result for Bryce Harper.

Well I'm sure he was a great little leaguer in '05, but let's try to use more relevant stats for this discussion.   

[Optics]

He's either hurt or the contract status is weighting him down.

Enjoy Chicago next year Bryce.

[mixedmutt]

Except hitting 30 points higher, being far more useful on the base paths, and far better defensively than Dunn ever was.

I don't know about far better. Bryce is actually a pretty terrible outfielder himself, sure he can make a diving catch every now and again, but he's not as fast as he looks and take bad routes, I am sure every defensive metric would probably back me up on this.

As far as everyone wanting to compare Harper's age 24 season to Dunn, and not his age 25 season. We aren't talking about what Bryce has done, that's not even the freaking conversation we are having, we are talking about how he is performing RIGHT NOW, and even IF he improves his average over the rest of the season his stat line will be crazily similiar to Dunn's in his prime, if he doesn't improve substantially it will be worse. This could very well be the new normal for him, we are nearly halfway through the season, he had a good 2017 but if he settles somewhere between 2016 and now(which is very, very likely) he will be the exact same type of hitter as Dunn.

At very best I think Bryce is going to be hard pressed to match Matt Kemp for the rest of his career, which is nothing to sneeze at, but whoever signs him next year will be getting fleeced. He's no bum, but he is nowhere near what he has been hyped up to be; he didn't have a drop off after his rookie season and 2015 was insane so the hype just kept growing and growing, but now hes getting worse not better. To hear it from ESPN he's Hank Aaron reincarnate.

[Slateman]

I don't know about far better. Bryce is actually a pretty terrible outfielder himself, sure he can make a diving catch every now and again, but he's not as fast as he looks and take bad routes, I am sure every defensive metric would probably back me up on this.

As far as everyone wanting to compare Harper's age 24 season to Dunn, and not his age 25 season. We aren't talking about what Bryce has done, that's not even the freaking conversation we are having, we are talking about how he is performing RIGHT NOW, and even IF he improves his average over the rest of the season his stat line will be crazily similiar to Dunn's in his prime, if he doesn't improve substantially it will be worse. This could very well be the new normal for him, we are nearly halfway through the season, he had a good 2017 but if he settles somewhere between 2016 and now(which is very, very likely) he will be the exact same type of hitter as Dunn.

Harper is light years ahead of where Dunn was in the outfield.

The new normal? WTF does this even mean? What changed that this is the new normal.

He's literally less than a year removed from hitting from hitting .319. He's 25. It's not like he had some catastrophic injury or regressed due to age.

[mixedmutt]

I'll give you that, but only because Dunn was so bad. Harper is still a terrible defensive player. He's also 2 years away from hitting .243. Only had 2 seasons above .275, and to watch him try to hit now you'd think he'd be lucky to ever hit over .250 over the course of a season again, and there's no reason to think he will ever consistently hit 40 HR again. People keep wanting to think he should be performing somewhere between 2015 and 2017, and want to ignore everything else(especially this year).  But he is going to have to FIX something just reach .260/30HR year after year, and other than 1 good season 3 years ago there's no reason to think he will exceed that. And given his approach at the plate, its more likely that he ends up a .240/40 player than ever being a high contact guy.

Harper is a solid player, no doubt about it, any team would be lucky to have him, just not for $30M a year. For some reason or another, whether it was a conscious decision, or just the natural evolution of his swing/approach he has turned into an all or nothing hitter, that's just the reality of it, that's the new normal, all or nothing.

[Slateman]

I'll give you that, but only because Dunn was so bad. Harper is still a terrible defensive player. He's also 2 years away from hitting .243. Only had 2 seasons above .275, and to watch him try to hit now you'd think he'd be lucky to ever hit over .250 over the course of a season again, and there's no reason to think he will ever consistently hit 40 HR again. People keep wanting to think he should be performing somewhere between 2015 and 2017, and want to ignore everything else(especially this year).  But he is going to have to FIX something just reach .250/30HR year after year, and other than 1 good season 3 years ago there's no reason to think he will exceed that.

Harper is a solid player, no doubt about it, any team would be lucky to have him, just not for $30M again.

He's not terrible. Jesus Christ people. He's medicore at a position that requires for more ability and skill in right field than Dunn in LF.

2 seasons above .275. Yea, I guess we'll just skip over those seasons where he hit .273 and .274

You're a clown

[Ray D]

Adam Dunn hit 38 or more homeruns eight times.   Harper will never do that.

[mixedmutt]

I didn't skip over them, I used math, .273 and .274 being LESS than .275, and nowhere near .300; which was my whole point. As far as average goes its more likely that 2015 was an aberration than anything else, he only played 2/3 of the season in 2017. And hear we are nearly halfway in and hes hitting below the freaking MENDOZA LINE, he's NEVER going to be a high average guy again, might as well accept that.

And he's not terrible defensively? He has a negative dWAR for chrissake.

Adam Dunn hit 38 or more homeruns eight times.   Harper will never do that.

You are definitely right about that;  which is why him hitting .30 points higher isn't go to bring a whole lot more value than Dunn's 40 dingers year in and year out.

[UMDNats]

I think it's a WNFF rule that any player argument eventually has to include discussion and comparison to adam dunn. can we unlock the re-sign dunn thread?

[Slateman]

I didn't skip over them, I used math, .273 and .274 being LESS than .275, and nowhere near .300; which was my whole point.

You are definitely right about that;  which is why him hitting .30 points higher isn't go to bring a whole lot more value than Dunn's 40 dingers year in and year out.

It's literally the difference of a hit. Why not make it .270? Why pick the arbitrary number of .275?

Comparing Harper to Dunn is idiotic. Harper's floor is still better than Dunn's ceiling.

[Slateman]

I think it's a WNFF rule that any player argument eventually has to include discussion and comparison to adam dunn. can we unlock the re-sign dunn thread?

We'd have to change it to "bring Dunn out of retirement"

[bluestreak]

I’m not even sure that I can have a conversation with someone who honestly believes that Bryce Harper and Adam Dunn are the same player.

The baseline gap is just too great for us to end up at consensus. It’s like one of us is speaking Spanish and the other Chinese

[DPMOmaha]

Adam Dunn hit 38 or more homeruns eight times.   Harper will never do that.

Oh, I think that's totally in the realm of possibility for Harper.

[mixedmutt]

Because its 25 points less than .300, generally the mark we consider to be extremely good for anyone with some power. If you can't break .275 consistently and want to be considered elite you need to be hitting ~35+ HR's every year. And given his struggles this year it would be pretty freaking stupid to think he will ever return to hitting above .270 over the course of a season just because over 2 seaons he hit a combined .7 points above that(which is basically the totality of your argument), he's not that type of hitter anymore, he doesn't even TRY TO BE, he's up there trying to hit crush the ball and nothing else and this is what you get.

[mixedmutt]

I’m not even sure that I can have a conversation with someone who honestly believes that Bryce Harper and Adam Dunn are the same player.

The baseline gap is just too great for us to end up at consensus. It’s like one of us is speaking Spanish and the other Chinese

I wasn't the one who orginally made said comparison, I said take away 2015 and his offensive numbers wouldn't look much different than Matt Adams....someone else said his numbers THIS YEAR looked like Adam Dunn, NO ONE said he was going to put up Adam Dunn numbers for the rest of his career, I said he would probably turn into a hitter with .30 points higher average and 10 less HRs....its your freaking bryce harper fanbois who want to base your entire defense of harper's poor offense on dissecting a JOKE between me and another poster.

If you can't see the similarities between Harpers numbers this year(his age 25 season) and Dunn';s age 25 season, then maybe it's not worth my time to talk to you. And regardless of the results, his APPROACH at the plate his very similiar to Dunn's, his numbers are better because he IS better, but the style is the same, and if you can't see that I can only assume you aren't watching the games.

Really I think the real issue is you just can't stand someone criticizing your messiah as he falls to Earth...because Bryce has turned into an all-or-nothing, low contact, high strikeout, high power hitter who walks a lot...and if you are trying to say Dunn doesn't fall into that archetype then you must live in a totally different dimension than the rest of us.

[varoadking]

I’m not even sure that I can have a conversation with someone who honestly believes that Bryce Harper and Adam Dunn are the same player.

The baseline gap is just too great for us to end up at consensus. It’s like one of us is speaking Spanish and the other Chinese

And the other one BABIP...

[aspenbubba]

I'll give you that, but only because Dunn was so bad. Harper is still a terrible defensive player.ends up a .

You want to see what a bad outfielder is ? Look at Soto . Harper is an average fielder. Soto is the reincarnation of Carlos Paula (OK old timers weigh in).

I saw something wrong with Harper and posted it mid- April. Personally I believe it is in his head. The more he presses the worse he gets.

[Ray D]

Soto is the reincarnation of Carlos Paula (OK old timers weigh in).

Even I'm not that old. Carlos Paula was a legend when I became of baseball age.  He was the first black Senator.  I never knew he was a bad outfielder.  My favorite bad outfielder was Jim Lemon. Soto is better than Lemon.

[mixedmutt]

It's literally the difference of a hit. Why not make it .270? Why pick the arbitrary number of .275?

For a more thorough explanation see my post above(above your post which I am quoting), but in short even if Bryce put up his career average numbers for the rest of the season starting TODAY, he still wouldn't break .250 OR hit 30 HR.  And given what his approach at the plate has been, I think it MUCH more likely he hits 40HR with a ~.240 average. Which would be almost EXACTLY what Dunn put up in his age 25 season, hence the origin of the whole freaking joke to begin with.

Really if you guys would just read the thread, instead of attacking the easiest targets you see, you'd read where I actually said Harper's offensive lines through the rest of the career would probably be comparable to Matt Kemp's, but that was contingent on him changing his approach away from his current one which DOES resemble Adam Dunn, and as I said before if you don't think Harpers current approach at the plate resembles that of Dunn then you aren't watching the games.

[Slateman]

For a more thorough explanation see my post above(above your post which I am quoting), but in short even if Bryce put up his career average numbers for the rest of the season starting TODAY, he still wouldn't break .250 OR hit 30 HR.  And given what his approach at the plate has been, I think it MUCH more likely he hits 40HR with a ~.240 average. Which would be almost EXACTLY what Dunn put up in his age 25 season, hence the origin of the whole freaking joke to begin with.

Bryce Harper averages 33 home runs per 162 games. He currently has played in 69 games (out of 70) and has 19 home runs. If he hit his career average for the rest of the season (.203 home runs per game), he would finish the season with 36 home runs (assuming 155 games played). 

Once again, thanks for showing that Harper's floor is Adam Dunn's all star season.

[mixedmutt]

Are you even reading the things I say? You are literally agreeing with me now, that in THIS SEASON, we would be happy for Bryce to end up with Dunn number's.

Here's the quote.

Right now I think most nationals fans would be ecstatic to get 25 year old Adam Dunn performance out of Harper

As in I think most nationals fans would be happy if Harper began playing at his career average numbers, and ended up with a line similiar to Dunn's in his prime, because right now he probably won't even reach that. Beyond that all I said was his approach was the same, high SO, high BB, low contact, high power. How is that incorrect?