Nationals new 1B discussion

[EdStroud]

By the way, there is a prank video song that is WAAY more hilarious than the rickroll. It's called the Russian lol song.

The part from 1:25-1:35 makes me pound the table in anguished laughter. Then 1:55 comes and I can't breathe anymore.

Is this the result of bad LSD testing in Russia during the cold war?

[MarquisDeSade]

Uh, did LaRoche really have a 1.2 WAR last year?

[Lintyfresh85]

Uh, did LaRoche really have a 1.2 WAR last year?

It's all part of the plan.

[MarquisDeSade]

It's all part of the plan.

Casey "Assman" Kotchman had a -0.9.  Awesome.

[PatsNats28]

if you're trying to be unbiased (which I'm not so sure of) then you should probably also note that and "sanity" = agreeing with PA

I've probably disagreed with PA before (I don't really remember these things), I'm not exactly LANC. I'll be pissed if we don't get LaRoche now.

[Obed_Marsh]

Wow. Beat out by the O's. 

[comish4lif]

Then who did they want and why didn't they sign him instead of putting themselves in this situation?

That.

As I've said, I just want to see a better team on the field. I want to trust Rizzoners. I'd they wanted Peña over Dunn. Fine, as long as it looks like a plan. Now that Dunn, Peña, Lee ar gone and IF we get Laroche, it will look like we "ended up" with him, as opposed to him being the one that we wanted....

As for whether or not we should have gone an extra million here or there, my fear (unfounded but plausible) is that Rizzo doesn't have a set 2011 budget payroll to work with and every move has to be presented to the board. Point being, if Rizzo has a budget to work with, it's his million or two to spend and if he spends it one one position or player, he doesn't  have that money to spend elsewhere. What I suspect, is that the board is on each decision. Offer Lee $8m? Boards says OK. Rizzo takes offer to Lee, agent counter offers for $10m. Rizzo goes back to the board. And repeat.

[Tyler Durden]

That.

As I've said, I just want to see a better team on the field. I want to trust Rizzoners. I'd they wanted Peña over Dunn. Fine, as long as it looks like a plan. Now that Dunn, Peña, Lee ar gone and IF we get Laroche, it will look like we "ended up" with him, as opposed to him being the one that we wanted....

I agree with this.  Phase II looks a lot like it involves some bargain basement shopping right now with the 1B situation.  The Werth signing was great.  So was going after Cliff Lee, Greinke, de la Rosa, and whoever else.  But just settling for the last 1B standing looks terrible - and that's important not just for right now but for future free agents who might want to come here.  The Nats just lost out on Greinke because we look like losers. 

If we sign LaRoche and he has a great year, then maybe all this will be forgotten.  But looking like losers already cost us Greinke and who knows who else.  If we don't sign LaRoche or he doens't have a good year, then we may lose out on other guys next offseason.

[welch]

Lerners certainly don't have an economic model similar to the Yankees and many people have speculated that losing can be more profitable than winning.

I read the analysis, at least on the Pirates. It indicates that a team can make a small profit by losing in a small market. Ticket sales roughly equals MLB sharing, but both are small, and static.

Win and you pull more fans, you have a larger local TV/radio contract -- the Yankee magic when they signed an exclusive with MSG -- and you sell merchandise of all sorts. Your brand goes on everything.

No sports team is big business, but consider publicity as a variety of money. Who had heard of Daniel Snyder before he bought the Redskins?

[Lintyfresh85]

What a low payroll does promise you though, is that win or lose, your team is going to turn a profit... if you put a big budget team on the field, and you end up like the Mets... you risk a season running into the red.

The Lerner's worst nightmare, of course.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

The Werth signing was great.  So was going after Cliff Lee, Greinke, de la Rosa, and whoever else.

Sorry, simply "pursuing" the best free agents, as opposed to actually signing them, counts for crap.

[Coladar]

I'd just like to note... You don't read articles like this about the Nats, despite Lee not being a huge deal... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/os-add-derrek-lee/

Project to score five runs a game, even the remotest shot in simply being discussed at being a contender. I don't think there is any doubt that for 90% of last season, anyone would have said the Os were the worse team, with far more holes than the Nats. Shows you the difference between a productive offseason, and an offseason spouting PR bull****, phase two!!!, and signing one above average player to a ridiculous contract is.

[MarquisDeSade]

Shows you the difference between a productive offseason, and an offseason spouting PR bull****, phase two!!!, and signing one above average player to a ridiculous contract is.

Here's my favourite line:

That said, the Orioles have significantly improved their offense without making outlandish long-term commitments or surrendering prime prospects.

[Evolution33]

I do not buy the Orioles hype for one second. They still have a lot of the same issues that they had last season. The Orioles biggest weakness last season was the bullpen, and it has arguably gotten weaker with the trade of Hernandez and the free agent lose of Hendricks. Derrek Lee has a chance to have a rebound season, but he is still 35 years old and coming off of an injury. Mark Reynolds is a good young player but he simply strikes out too much and you will not hear me say that about a lot of players. But he just doesn't make contact enough. When he hits the ball it goes a long way but good pitchers can easily handle him and there are just as many if not more good pitchers in the AL East than the NL West. Brian Roberts and JJ Hardy combined played 160 games last season. The Orioles had a lot of health issues around the infield. Jones and Markakis are both good young players but at 2.3 WAR and 2.8 WAR they are nothing more than slightly above average. The Orioles have no star level players. They have a lot of young guys that have potential, but potential is not production. That goes double for the pitching staff. Matusz is good and showed a lot of promise last season, but putting another crappy bullpen behind young pitchers is an easy way to hurt their confidence. Maybe running a bunch of league average players, a promising but unproven rotation, and what could be the worst bullpen ever is a way to contend in another division, but the Orioles have to play 4 teams that are better than them 19 times each. The Orioles will end up about as good as last years media darling. 

[HalfSmokes]

Here's my favourite line:

That said, the Orioles have significantly improved their offense without making outlandish long-term commitments or surrendering prime prospects.

And when you compare their roster to the rest of their division, you get a last place team

[Tyler Durden]

I'm pretty sure the Orioles will lose 90+ games.  Possibly 100. 

I don't think I'd trade rosters with them. 

I also think fangraphs is ridiculous sometimes.  The goal is to win - not to 'improve without making outlandish long-term commitments or surrendering prime prospects.'  Does that mean fangraphs would be critical of the Nats if we came away this offseason with Werth, Greinke, and a 1B?  Give me a break.

[MarquisDeSade]

And when you compare their roster to the rest of their division, you get a last place team

The Washington DC-Baltimore Metroplex - where last place is the best you can hope for...

[Evolution33]

http://twitter.com/dSoldevila/status/21582969890148352

And the Orioles lose another reliever. Simon accused of killing someone.

[houston-nat]

http://twitter.com/dSoldevila/status/21582969890148352

And the Orioles lose another reliever. Simon accused of killing someone.

Not sure why this is in the Nationals 1B thread, but can you imagine if that happened on the Nats? "Storen and McGeary in textbook store hit-and-run!"

[blue911]

http://twitter.com/dSoldevila/status/21582969890148352

And the Orioles lose another reliever. Simon accused of killing someone.

He's innocent. Simon would've missed high and away.

[NeedaNewNick]

The Orioles have made a number of sensible moves, and this could be the year they play 10-15 games better than the Nats, who even with Stan gone, continue to focus on spinning, not winning.

[NatsDad14]

I do not buy the Orioles hype for one second. They still have a lot of the same issues that they had last season. The Orioles biggest weakness last season was the bullpen, and it has arguably gotten weaker with the trade of Hernandez and the free agent lose of Hendricks. Derrek Lee has a chance to have a rebound season, but he is still 35 years old and coming off of an injury. Mark Reynolds is a good young player but he simply strikes out too much and you will not hear me say that about a lot of players. But he just doesn't make contact enough. When he hits the ball it goes a long way but good pitchers can easily handle him and there are just as many if not more good pitchers in the AL East than the NL West. Brian Roberts and JJ Hardy combined played 160 games last season. The Orioles had a lot of health issues around the infield. Jones and Markakis are both good young players but at 2.3 WAR and 2.8 WAR they are nothing more than slightly above average. The Orioles have no star level players. They have a lot of young guys that have potential, but potential is not production. That goes double for the pitching staff. Matusz is good and showed a lot of promise last season, but putting another crappy bullpen behind young pitchers is an easy way to hurt their confidence. Maybe running a bunch of league average players, a promising but unproven rotation, and what could be the worst bullpen ever is a way to contend in another division, but the Orioles have to play 4 teams that are better than them 19 times each. The Orioles will end up about as good as last years media darling. 

Do you realize how bad the O's were at 1B, SS, and 3B? They were simply horrific at those positions. Any upgrade would be huge for the O's. We are talking about a potential 7-8 win upgrade at those positions. Plus, it looked like Showalter might be turning around that team.

[Tyler Durden]

Do you realize how bad the O's were at 1B, SS, and 3B? They were simply horrific at those positions. Any upgrade would be huge for the O's. We are talking about a potential 7-8 win upgrade at those positions. Plus, it looked like Showalter might be turning around that team.

The O's need huge upgrades across the board in order to even pass the Blue Jays.  They're not going to be able to do that on the cheap like they have been. 

The hype comes from squeezing out an extra win or two without having to pay market rate for it.  That seems to be some kind of great accomplishment for the fangraphs crowd.  Sorry, but I'd rather overpay for Jayson Werth than underpay for JJ Hardy and Mark Reynolds.

I bet they lose big again in 2011.  90+ and last place.

[HalfSmokes]

This, an inefficient upgrade us better than effecient crap

[Lintyfresh85]

O's better than the Nats.

Unfortunately, I don't think its even close.